Risedronate, the BBC and me

Risedronate is a drug used to reduce fractures in women with osteoporosis. The story of the Sheffield Risedronate trial made national news when one of the clinical researchers, Aubrey Blumsohn, dissociated himself from the trial because he was refused access to the data he had helped to collect. Later, some of that data turned up. Here Martin Bland describes how he came to analyse the data on behalf of the BBC, what he found and what happened next.     

Prisoner escort in Scotland: Costs, projection and performance under scrutiny

David Eyre is a journalist. He says that he is a little ignorant when it comes to statistics, as he thinks many people in the media are. Which is pretty surprising when you consider the number of stories that are based on statistics—everything from crime surveys to NHS waiting lists. Here he and Sheila Bird describe how they sought to address this problem in the context of prisoner escort in Scotland.     

Lord Moser

Three prime Ministers—Wilson, Health, Callaghan—listened to him when he was head of the Central Statistical Office. As advisor on social policy, and especially on higher education policy, he has shaped our universities. Now he is a member of the House of Lords. Claus Moser spoke to Julian Champkin .     

A note on the history of regression

The first notion of statistical regression is usually attributed to Francis Galton. Recent work in a special field of applied statistics has brought to light the work of the neglected pioneer R. J. Adcock. Despite errors of execution, he deserves remembering in the history of our science. He came close to inventing linear regression; he also saw the need for specifying criteria for optimal estimation of parameters, and, with a little clearer understanding, he might have become the first recorded maximizer of likelihood.     

A cautionary tale

Anthony Edwards wrote this cautionary tale for genetics students at Stanford University whom he was teaching in 1965. It has not previously been published. "Its appearance now is due to my having been asked whether a copy from the papers of the Nobel Laureate Joshua Lederberg might be put on the web by the US National Library of Medicine", he says. "Lederberg was Professor of Genetics at Stanford at the time and I must have given him a copy. More remarkably, he thought it worth keeping." It concerns what is known as Simpson's paradox.     

环境分权、环保约谈与环境污染

环境政策的实施及其效应是现有文献研究的热点问题。文章基于长江经济带2003-2017年108个城市市级面板数据，手工搜集整理河长制与环保约谈数据，采用双重差分法实证研究了环境分权和环保约谈对环境污染的影响。研究发现：环境分权对环境污染具有显著的长期抑制作用，河长制的实施可以改善生态环境质量，从空间角度看，环境分权对长江经济带不同区域环境污染的影响存在异质性，对长江中游城市环境污染的影响最为显著；环保约谈对环境污染具有显著的负向影响，其治污效力远高于环境分权的政策效果，但环保约谈对环境污染的滞后效用有所减小，表明环保约谈对环境污染的影响是一种短期影响；环境分权与环保约谈双管齐下的治污效果更为显著，对环境污染的抑制作用高于两者单独的政策影响，但二者双管齐下的治污效力随着时间推移有所减弱。因此，文章从构建环境监督执法垂直管理机制、重视事前预警约谈、建立跨流域环境联防联治体系等角度提出改善环境污染的相关政策。     

外需疲软、生产技术革新与制造业劳动力价格扭曲

降低劳动力价格扭曲是减少我国资源错配、提高全要素生产率和实现经济效率提升的关键手段,当前外需疲软和生产技术升级诉求会对劳动力价格扭曲产生什么样的影响呢？本文在构建劳动力价格扭曲新型测度方法的基础上,从描述性统计和实证检验双层面对上述问题进行深入剖析。研究发现：首先外需疲软有助于缓解我国制造业劳动力价格扭曲,而技术革新则会加剧劳动力价格扭曲,二者合力表现出一定的相互抵消关系,因而在当前外需疲软背景下,企业进行技术革新不失为一种“好策略”;其次我国补贴政策的效果有悖政府补贴的初衷,表现出一定的“补贴悖论”,应重新审视和优化中高技术企业的补贴机制,发掘补贴在加快中国经济发展方式转变中的正向功能;最后融资约束和投入产出效率提升对多数企业劳动力价格扭曲表现出一定的“中性”和“不敏感”特征,规模经济则会显著加剧内资制造业劳动力价格扭曲。     

中央及地方财政格局下公路收费的影响、成因及对策

本文采用混合组平均（PMG）及广义矩估计（GMM）方法实证检验了当前公路收费制度对我国经济发展的影响并探索其作用机制。我们发现过高收费水平已经不利于经济增长：收费水平每提高1%会导致GDP增长率放缓0.005%、人均GDP降低0.04%。由此计算出该制度在2012年新增社会经济成本约为1660亿元,大于其收益。该制度的作用机制通过促进路网建设、降低国内贸易总量及市场整合程度两个相反作用实现。本研究将高收费归咎于分税制改革之后地方预算内财力的不足。这些发现为政策制定者改革该制度提供了必要的参考：中央财政应加大在路网建设中的作用,同时通过预算内转移支付的方式补偿改革过程中地方政府的损失。     

Estimability,testability, and connectedness in the cell means model

This article discusses the conocepts of estimation of parameters and tests of linear hyp hypotheses in the fixed effects (ANOVA) model with some zero cell frequencies. The concept of connected experiments is generalized ot he cel1-means model and relatedtotheest imation of and test of hy pothe sesa bout the cell means. A simple test for connectedness is developed as a n atur alre sult of thea nalysis of the constrai nedcell means model. The a nalysis of unconnected experimentsisbriefly discussed. Examples are presented toillustrate the ideas.     

The Accidental Statistician

During his long and distinguished career, Sir David Cox has played a substantial part in the development and growth of the discipline of statistics, but, as he tells Helen Joyce, he very nearly specialised in mathematical physics or analysis instead.     

Career story: Pharmaceutical Statistician

Nobody could accuse the Royal Statistical Society's President Andy Grieve of looking for a quiet life. As well as being a consultant statistician for pharmaceuticals company Pfizer, he has for many years been heavily involved with the Society and Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry. However, he claims to Helen Joyce that his early career was shaped by a fondness for "taking the easy option".     

技术差距、人力资本结构与企业自主创新强度

通过构建三部门模型,分析了技术差距、人力资本结构对企业自主创新强度的作用,研究发现:技术差距对企业自主创新强度起负向作用;人力资本禀赋与企业自主创新强度密切相关,当一个国家或地区人力资本禀赋中越偏向高级人力资本,越有助于提高企业自主创新强度。在此基础上,以中国内地2005-2010年31个省、市、自治区的相关数据进行实证分析,结果表明:技术差距是影响企业自主创新强度的重要因素,技术差距越大,企业自主创新强度越低;人力资本总量和人力资本结构有提高企业自主创新强度;技术差距、人力资本结构相比人力资本总量对企业自主创新强度作用力更强。     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

Career story: Actuarial researcher

In school, Shane Whelan loved science and had ambitions to become a physicist. But, although he has fulfilled his ambition of doing research, it is in actuarial science rather than physics. He tells Helen Joyce how the switch happened.     

Lower Bounds on Integrated Risk,Subject to Inequality Constraints

Statistical decision theory can sometimes be used to find, via a least favourable prior distribution, a statistical procedure that attains the minimax risk. This theory also provides, using an ‘unfavourable prior distribution’, a very useful lower bound on the minimax risk. In the late 1980s, Kempthorne showed how, using a least favourable prior distribution, a specified integrated risk can sometimes be minimised, subject to an inequality constraint on a different risk. Specifically, he was concerned with the solution of a minimax‐Bayes compromise problem (‘compromise decision theory’). Using an unfavourable prior distribution, Kabaila & Tuck ( 2008 ), provided a very useful lower bound on an integrated risk, subject to an inequality constraint on a different risk. We extend this result to the case of multiple inequality constraints on specified risk functions and integrated risks. We also describe a new and very effective method for the computation of an unfavourable prior distribution that leads to a very useful lower bound. This method is simply to maximize the lower bound directly with respect to the unfavourable prior distribution. Not only does this method result in a relatively tight lower bound, it is also fast because it avoids the repeated computation of the global maximum of a function with multiple local maxima. The advantages of this computational method are illustrated using the problems of bounding the performance of a point estimator of (i) the multivariate normal mean and (ii) the univariate normal mean.     

“新农保”影响了老人的健康绩效吗?——来自中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查的证据

基于"中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查"2008-2011/2012年两期面板数据,使用PSMDD方法和中介效应模型系统评估"新农保"对老人健康的影响。结果表明,新农保政策的实施对老人的健康既发挥了积极作用,又带来了消极影响。"新农保"能够显著改善老人的自理能力和减少患慢性病数,提高了老人的生理健康,但是却降低了老人的幸福感,使老人患抑郁症的可能性显著提升,导致老人的心理健康状况恶化。提高老人健康绩效的重点应在于对老人心理健康的照料和饮食条件的改善。同时,政府应注意到新农保制度实施过程中的消极影响,提早预防和改进。     

Intermediate Monitoring,Sample Size Reassessment,and Multi-Treatment Optimal Response-Adaptive Designs for Phase III Clinical Trials with More Than One Constraint

Optimal response-adaptive designs in Phase III clinical trial set up are becoming more and more current interest. In the present article, an optimal response-adaptive design is introduced for more than two treatments at hand. We minimize an objective function subject to more than one inequality constraints. For this purpose, we propose an extensive computer search algorithm. The proposed procedure is illustrated with extensive numerical computation and simulations. Some real data set is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

农村劳动力非农化程度微观影响因素的实证研究

 本文基于山东省1674位农村劳动力调查资料,运用最优尺度回归分析方法,对影响农村劳动力非农化程度的个人因素和家庭因素进行了研究。研究结果表明,在劳动者个人因素中,对农村劳动力非农化程度影响力最大的前三位因素是：是否有技术特长、是否接受过职业培训和年龄大小;而在劳动者家庭因素中,家庭人均耕地面积的影响力最大。     

Krishnaiah,P.R. and C.R. Rao (eds):Sampling. Handbook of Statistics,vol. 6

In a recent paper Yager (1988) introduced a special type of aggregation operators which he called OWA-operators and applied it to multicriteria decisionmaking. In our paper we give a more general definition of such operators and investigate in some detail the structural properties of them. In particular we introduce a well motivated ordering relation on weight systems which is different but compatible with Yager's degree of “orness”. Our results have immediate applications to the theory of generalized quantifiers as also discussed by Yager. Details concerning this topic will appear in a future paper.     

Racing, the Law and the Top Jockey: the Kieren Fallon trial

In a headline-hitting trial at the Old Bailey last year, top jockey Kieren Fallon was accused of "throwing" races. Did he really ride to lose? John Haigh comes to a clear statistical conclusion.