Unemployment and Search for Work: Exploratory Analyses of Labour Market Attachment using CPS-Type Data

Abstract. This paper deals with measuring unemployment and labour market attachment in Italy, on the basis of CPS-type survey data. It is shown that the size and rate of unemployment are highly sensitive to modest variations in the definition of unemployment. This motivates a different approach. Based on the answers to a set of questions on search for work, a cluster analysis is performed, which yields four well established groups. Comparing them with the official labour force classifications, two “grey areas” appear at the borders between employment, unemployment and inactivity, which are of some interest in interpreting labour market attachment.     

A Structural Approach to the European Labour Market

The structure of the European labour market is highly differentiated by geo-graphical area. If the 1992 integration is likely to induce short-medium term adjustment effects on employment, these will mostly affect regional labour markets. Negative adjustments will follow different distribution patterns, probably exacerbating current regional disequilibria. On the other hand, still little known are the geographical features of the European economic, social and production structures. Although many studies have recently concentrated on the analysis of local labour markets, few of them have addressed the issue of Community regions. Through multivariate and cluster analyses of structural data on regional labour markets, the paper offers a confirmation of the explanatory power of local market analysis, as applied to the European area. The structural features of each elementary area are captured by three factors only that allow the construction of a coherent classification of EEC regions in four major clusters. This classification is used to identify the “weak areas” that, after a reconsideration in unified terms of European cooperation policies, should be the object of new development interventions.     

The Female Immigrant Labour Supply: The Effect of an In‐work Benefit

We explore the effect of an in‐work benefit on the labour supply of single immigrant women in Sweden. Using a simulation approach, we find that, on average, the in‐work benefit has no effect on the labour supply of these women. However, women with low incomes increase their labour supply, a response that is the strongest among non‐European and Eastern and Southern European women, and is mainly a result of increased participation in the labour market. High‐income earners slightly reduce their working hours. Thus, the results suggest that the in‐work benefit may strengthen the labour market attachment of low‐income immigrant women.     

Informal Caregiving and Women's Work Choices: Lessons from the Netherlands

This paper focuses on the effects of Dutch long‐term care and labour market policies on women's labour market participation and informal caregiving decisions. Labour market participation and informal caregiving are estimated jointly through a multivariate dynamic binary probit on European Community Household Panel data. Under Dutch policy, informal care decisions appear to be independent of household non‐labour income and no significant impediment seems to hinder the contemporaneous practice of work activities and care. However, past informal care provision still slightly reduces the probability of currently working and vice versa, leaving room for policy improvements to enhance labour market participation.     

A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

ABSTRACT We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.     

Employment Spells and Previous Labour Market History

ABSTRACT: In this paper the author analyses the influence of the past labour market history of an individual on the length of employment spells he will experience. Most empirical works emphasize the so called Markov model, which implies that the probability of an individual changing state depends only on the state currently occupied. Using data on the labour market histories of a sample of unemployed persons, we specify and estimate a reduced form model where job separation rates arc a function of the entire labour market history and of variables related to personal characteristics and labour market conditions. The empirical analysis supports the claim that transition probabilities are related to past labour market history.     

Do Interactions between Finance and Labour Market Institutions Affect the Income Distribution?

This article analyses the linkages between financial development, labour market institutions and market income inequality for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over the 1980 to 2012 period. With the help of a dynamic panel data model with an interacted term, one crucial contribution of this article is to analyse the interacted impact of labour market institutions (i.e. union density and employment protection legislation) on the one hand and financial development on the other hand on the income distribution. Our results indicate that changes in the financial/credit and labour market regulation affect the income distribution. Estimates of the marginal effects show that by increasing labour market regulation one also weakens the impact of the flexibilization in the financial/credit market on the increase in income inequality.     

Is Imperfect Competition in the Product Market Relevant for Labour Markets?

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasises the importance of imperfect competition in the product market for labour market outcomes. We investigate one aspect of this issue by specifying a dynamic labour demand model where firms face different degrees of competition in the product market and test its predictions for 299 US manufacturing industries. We find that the long-run equilibrium level of industry employment as well as the speed of labour demand adjustment decreases with market power. Our results imply that imperfect competition in the product market explains part of the observed labour market rigidities and also sheds new light on two “stylized facts” in industrial organisation, the observation of procyclical movements in productivity and price–cost margins in concentrated industries.     

Labour Market Policy and Employment Growth in Sweden

ABSTRACT: In this paper, the author outlines the Swedish employment situation and traces the history of the labour market policy it generated, from its earliest development at the turn of the century, through to the Rehn-Meidner model, and then examines the various reactions and criticisms against it. It goes on to look at the trends and developments of the labour market in the‘80s, and concludes by making a speculative analysis on if and how the labour market policy has had an effect on the participation of various sectors of the population in the labour force, and if it has influenced unemployment in the Swedish labour market.     

Gender Differences in Transitions from Unemployment: Micro Evidence from Finland

Abstract. This paper examines gender differences in labour market transitions in Finland. The empirical analysis carried out using multinomial logit model is based on a 1996 sample of unemployed people. The results indicate that female labour market position is inferior to male and that female labour market outcomes are more responsive to family‐related background characteristics. Previous unemployment is observed to be particularly scarring on male labour market position. According to the results education improves female labour market position significantly. Higher education diminishes gender differences in the labour market and is therefore a particularly equalizing factor.     

From the Marginal Equilibrium to the Generational Paradigm. Microeconomic Behavior in a Dynamic Model of Social Equilibrium

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to formulate an initial hypothetical framework describing microeconomic behavior of labour market agents in a dynamic model of social equilibrium. To this end we outline an alternative hypothesis concerning the process of determination of labour demand and of the allocation of employment requirements on a generational basis. Reformulating the microeconomic model to consider labour as a quasi-fixed factor, comparable to a population, and which follows a biological, more than a mechanical logic, the paper assigns primary roles to careers and dual markets, the first-job market, and factors of asynchrony and social control mechanisms. At the same time, the generational determinants of the supply of labour are identified, together with the processes of identification and selection between labour demand and supply. On the basis of these considerations the concept of the generational paradigm is brought into the analysis. This paradigm designates the set of determinants of labour supply and demand behavior that are functions of time, of social and institutional variables, and of the technical and organizational structure of production. The paper ends with an initial thesis that the working of the generational paradigm is a crucial factor in the overall social equilibrium.     

Labour Surplus,Worker Rights and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Asia and Latin America

How do labour market conditions, trade union rights and job security regulations affect labour productivity? This paper is the first attempt at an empirical analysis of this important question for a large sample of Asian and Latin American countries. We provide new estimates of the rates of surplus labour in 20 countries, as well as detailed tables summarizing their key regulations governing certain aspects of union activity and layoffs. Then we exploit these and other data in an econometric analysis of intercountry differentials in the growth rate of labour productivity in manufacturing during the 1980s. Among the principal results, we find that, while all else remains the same, productivity growth rates are significantly higher in countries with relatively larger labour surpluses, the effects of excess of labour on productivity growth are affected by the strength or weakness of union rights. We also find that the impacts of union rights and job security protections on productivity trends may be either positive or negative, depending on the labour market situation.     

Gender and Promotion in the Academic Labour Market

Several hypotheses are put forward with respect to promotion differentials between males and females on the academic labour market. These hypotheses are tested on the basis of a longitudinal data set of academic staff members at Utrecht University. The methods applied include Poisson regression, Negative Binomial analysis and Probit analysis. Full-time instead of part-time work and a Ph.D. degree prove to be efficient but not sufficient instruments for women on the academic labour market to catch up with men with respect to promotions.     

Youth Unemployment and Opportunities in the Labour Market – The Myth of Lifelong Hysteresis

This paper examines whether the level of risk of unemployment for recently trained youths in the labour market has lasting effects upon their employment opportunities: will a cohort that enters the labour market during a period of high unemployment have a permanently higher rate of unemployment than one that joins the labour market during a period of low unemployment? The connection between occupational choice and employment status after graduation is also examined The analysis encompasses teachers, engineers and unskilled workers. The conclusion is that troughs and highs in the labour market have a significant but not necessarily permanent effect upon unemployment and placement in different industries.     

Labour Force Transitions among Married Women in the USA

This paper describes the patterns of labour market transitions for a cohort of married women in the USA drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey and observed between 1968 and 1991. The empirical analysis of labour market movements is motivated by human capital theory augmented by demographic and life-cycle considerations. These movements are investigated by estimating competing risk models of labour force spell duration. The results show that the determinants of spell lengths and the determinants of the reasons for spell terminations vary across labour market states. More importantly, both the labour market state in which an individual is observed over her work cycle and the labour market state to which she moves are relevant in shaping her spell length and her tradeable characteristics in the labour market.     

Facts and Theories of the Italian Labour Market (1970-1985): A Time Series Analysis of Wages,Employment and Prices

ABSTRACT: ln this paper an attempt is made to determine whether observed patterns of intertemporal variability in a number of Italian labour market characteristics are consistent with the predictions forthcoming from three prominent models of aggregate labour market behaviour. The behavioral models included in the analysis are: a) intertemporal substitution labour supply, b) staggered wage contracts, and c) intertemporal labour demand with adjustment costs. The empirical results provide relatively more support for the validity of the adjustment cost model.     

Labour Market and Decentralized Decision-making: An Institutional Approach

The persistent failure in the labour market is due to uncertainty and asymmetric information, and relies on a reconsideration of the bargaining process. This process is not generated by individual action but rather by the behaviour of social groups and institutions in which State intervention can immprove the efficiency in matching demand and supply. In this framework we will discuss the ways by which institutional decentralization can be implemented in a labour market characterized by deep regional differences and by long-term unemployment persistence as in Italy. The main conclusion is that this policy option better fits the active labour policies. In fact the actual aim of such supply-side policies is to reduce the regional and skill mismatches and therefore it needs a substantial involvement of local public agencies.     

The Labour Market in Macedonia: A Labour Demand Analysis

Abstract. This paper examines the labour market in Macedonia, a country with the highest unemployment rate in Europe. I describe labour market institutions and policies during the transition. I also examine job creation and job destruction using firm‐level data and I estimate short‐term and long‐term elasticities of the labour demand. The analysis shows that there are regulatory barriers to the labour market flexibility. I can also conclude that the privatization of socially owned enterprises has failed to promote job creation. Nevertheless, labour market problems seem to stem from factors other than substantial sluggishness of firms in adjusting employment to variations in wages.     

Job Tenure,Labour Mobility and Wage Profiles

Abstract. The features and the length of the attachment of workers to firms represent a central aspect of the labour relationship. The length of service is an important determinant of wages and of non-pecuniary benefits; it affects internal mobility in the firm, and insulates workers with long job tenure from unemployment. In this paper it is argued that the traditional “spot” labour market Characterization is difficult to reconcile with the existence of long term employment relationships. A number of alternative theories which predict the existence of an employer-worker attachment proposed, and their implications discussed. The relevance of long term employment relationships is then tested using micro-data for the Italian manufacturing industry. An appropriate methodology for the analysis of the duration of employment is developed. and separate “job tenure” equations for white and blue collar workers are estimated. A higher educational attainment - ceteris paribus- appears to increase the probability of a job separation; conversely, a higher working experience, previous to the current job, tends to reduce it. The effect of firm size is negative, as larger organizations seem to favour longer employment spells. Outside opportunities show a strong positive effect on the probability of separation. Finally, conditional on the current wage, the probability of leaving the job increases with the length of time worked. However, when the unconditional outcome is considered, separation decline with tenure; in this case. it is argued, the wage effect more than outweighs the conditional effect. This result is consistent with the predictions of both “specific” human capital and job matching theories.     

Modelling Labour Demand Dynamics beyond the Frictionless Environment

Abstract. In this study we develop a simple econometric model for labour demand dynamics by explicitly considering deviations from the standard frictionless economic environment. In particular, we explore the potential effect on labour demand of capital market imperfections, labour market institutional rigidities in the form of union power, and the impact of uncertainty. In addition, in the presence of uncertainty, adjustment costs and irreversibility emerge as an important factor that introduces an option value of waiting. According to our results, leverage exerts a direct negative impact on employment dynamics indicating that capital market imperfections are indeed present. Moreover, leverage is found to also affect the adjustment process of employment. Finally, we document asymmetric effects of frictions on labour demand across different size groups that imply a higher vulnerability of small and medium sectors with respect to debt levels. Uncertainty exerts a significantly negative impact on labour demand, which is compatible with presence of partial irreversibility of employment decisions. Finally, unions over and above their effect via higher wages are positively related to employment, a finding that is indicative of their pursue for job security.