Population Aging and Control of Population Growth

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Drought,Migration and Population Growth in the Sahel: The Case of the Malian Gourma: 1900–1991

This paper explores the development of the population of the Gourma in Northern Mali from the beginning of this century to the present. As part of Northern Sahel, the area has been hard-hit by at least four droughts this century and is among the least developed in Mali. The data used include the available population censuses, colonial records and recent survey research. The droughts of 1973 and 1984 may have increased child mortality, but the most important effects may have been short-term reductions in fertility, as well as increased migration. While approximately 30 per cent of adult men are absent, the overall picture of migration is much more complex than simply one of emigration, as migration into the Gourma and internal redistribution of population also play an important role.     

Fertility Decline and Population Growth:China''''s Dilemma

ＦｅｒｔｉｌｉｔｙＤｅｃｌｉｎｅａｎｄＰｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎＧｒｏｗｔｈ：Ｃｈｉｎａ＇ｓＤｉｌｅｍｍａＣｈｉｎａｈａｓａｔｐｒｅｓｅｎｔａｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆｏｖｅｒ１．２ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎ，ｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｔｈｅｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆ...     

Grassland Ecology and Population Growth: Striking a Balance

Soil erosion and desertification in China areattributed by many scholars to the degradation offorests and grasslands in western China. It is ofvital importance. therefore to Preserve the environmentand resources of the western region in the course ofeconomic development.Researchers have established causal relationshipsbetween the loss of forests in the west and theoccurrence of serious draughts in recent years. Theprimary reason for the degradation of grasslands isovergrazing. which in turn i…     

Research Note: Regional Dynamics of Tibetan Population Change in Eastern Tibet,ca. 1940–1982

Population and Environment -     

Soil Nutrient Depletion and Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Malthusian Nexus?

Soil nutrient mining and other forms of soil degradation threaten future soil productivity, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from 36 countries in SSA show a significant relationship at the supra-national level between soil nutrient depletion (including erosion), reduced fallow periods, and population pressure and thus illustrate the unsustainable population-agriculture-environment nexus on the continent which so far has been described in case studies only. It appears that Malthusian mechanisms are at work, despite encouraging indications of farmers' concerns and adaptation to changing conditions. It is agreed that a re-examination of the common land degradation assessments and farmers' response to changing conditions would be useful, however, this should not delay other recommended interventions.     

The Ratio of the Elderly to the Working-age Population in Japan,Singapore and Thailand

ＴｈｅＲａｔｉｏｏｆｔｈｅＥｌｄｅｒｌｙｔｏｔｈｅＷｏｒｋｉｎｇ－ａｇｅＰｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｉｎＪａｐａｎ,ＳｉｎｇａｐｏｒｅａｎｄＴｈａｉｌａｎｄＪａｐａｎＳｉｎｇａｐｏｒｅＴｈａｉｌａｎｄＯｆｔｈｅｗｏｒｋｉｎｇ－ａｇｅｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎａｇｅ...     

Non-poor Components of Population Growth and Immigration in the U.S., 1990–2010

Traditional measures of poverty are informative in indicating the degree of economic deprivation in a population at a cross-sectional point in time, but they do not consider growth in the size of the non-poverty population. We develop a measure of non-poverty population growth in order to explore whether it constitutes a useful indicator of an important demographic dynamic. We illustrate our approach with an analysis of the U.S. states using Census and American Community Survey data from 1990, 2000, and 2010. The results indicate that the extent to which the non-poor population increased across states is uncorrelated with the initial poverty rate as conventionally measured. Broken down by nativity, the findings further show that some states with official poverty rates above the national average (e.g., Arizona, Georgia, and Texas) nonetheless had some of the highest rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. By contrast, other states with official poverty rates below the national average (e.g., Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont) often had low rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. These findings suggest that low initial poverty rates do not necessarily contribute substantially to the alleviation of global poverty through the immigration of less skilled persons from less developed nations. However, the rate of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants also appears to be uncorrelated with state variation in minimum wages even after taking into account population density and median home value.     

Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990

Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth model with gradual technical adjustment. The model performs well in both pooled and panel estimations. The growth patterns of GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes. The 50–64 age group has a positive influence, and the group above 65 contributes negatively, while younger age groups have ambiguous effects. However, the mechanism behind these age effects is not yet resolved. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 2 July 1998     

Growth in family income inequality, 1970–1990: Industrial restructuring and demographic change

Industrial restructuring and changing population composition frequently have been treated as competing explanations of growing U.S. income inequality. Using the Gini coefficient, we employ a model of conditional change to explore the relative effects of each on changes of family income distribution between 1970 and 1990, across 784 metropolitan areas and public use microdata areas (PUMAs). Changes in both industrial structure and population characteristics are found to have significant and opposite effects on family income distribution, although there are sharp differences by decade in the dynamics that underlie increasing inequality. Our central conclusion is that it is too soon to eliminate deindustrialization as a significant cause of increased earnings inequality.     

Population Trends as a Counterweight to Central City Decline, 1950–2000

The share of metropolitan residents living in central cities declined dramatically from 1950 to 2000. We argue that cities would have lost even further ground if not for demographic trends such as renewed immigration, delayed childbearing, and a decline in the share of households headed by veterans. We provide causal estimates of the effect of children on residential location using the birth of twins. The effect of veteran status is identified from a discontinuity in the probability of military service during and after the mass mobilization for World War II. Our results suggest that these changes in demographic composition were strong enough to bolster city population but not to fully counteract socioeconomic factors favoring suburban growth.     

Instability,investment, disasters,and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.     

Moving Across Boundaries: Migration in South Africa, 1950–2000

Existing knowledge about historical patterns of black internal migration in South Africa is incomplete, primarily because of the lack of good life course studies as well as the apartheid government’s suppression and censoring of data. This article provides a comprehensive picture of historical internal migration patterns with an analysis of a unique individual retrospective life history data set. This sample of the black population, collected in 2000, is the only known nationally representative life history data for South Africa; it includes all residential moves for each individual during his/her lifetime. Various mobility outcomes are analyzed: moves within/across provinces, moves within/across rural and urban areas, forced moves, moves with a nuclear family, and individual moves. The results indicate that migration significantly increased among black South Africans during the last half of the twentieth century, and that this increase began before the Pass Laws were repealed in 1986 and well before the official end of apartheid in 1991 or the first free election in 1994. The timing of this increase in migration rates suggests that migration in defiance of the Pass Laws (albeit a dangerous and desperate proposition) was a way of life for many black South Africans.     

Changes in Population,Affluence, and Environmental Pressures During Industrialization: The Case of Austria 1830–1995

This paper relates changes in aggregate population, affluence (measured as GDP), and indicators for environmental pressures, the latter being based upon the socioeconomic metabolism concept, for Austria from 1830 to 1995. During this period of time Austria underwent a transition from a predominantly agricultural mode of substistence to an industrial economy. The Austrian population increased by a factor of 2.3, total GDP by a factor of 28.2 and per capita GDP by a factor of 12.2. Environmental indicators change by factors of between 0.85 and over 1000. In general we find that although efficiencies (environmental pressure per unit of GDP) increased dramatically, total environmental pressures increased considerably for most indicators, except for those that are related to an agricultural mode of subsistence. Our results indicate that environmental policies that aim to reduce the environmental pressure per unit of GDP (i.e., increase ecological efficiency) are not likely to be sufficient for sustainable development because efficiency gains are more than compensated for by increases in affluence. Instead, sustainability policy should focus on reducing total environmental pressures.     

The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011

Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explore three methods for reconciling the demographic accounts from 1981 to 2011 for the Australia-born and 18 foreign-born population groups. We then describe how the immigrant populations have changed and what has contributed most to that change. We find that the sources of immigrant population change have varied considerably by age, sex, country of birth, and period of immigration. Immigrants from Europe are currently the oldest and slowest-growing populations, whereas those from elsewhere are growing rapidly and exhibit relatively young population age structures. Studying these patterns over time helps us to understand the nature of international migration and its long-term contributions to population change and composition.     

Socioeconomic disparities in climate vulnerability: neonatal mortality in northern Sweden, 1880–1950

Population and Environment - The aim of this study was to analyse the association between season of birth, temperature and neonatal mortality according to socioeconomic status in northern Sweden...     

Trends of Population Growth in China:Maximum Number Will Exceed 1.5 Billion

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