Savings–age profiles in the UK

We used UK Family Expenditure Surveys to analyse the relationship between savings and age structure. We address two key problems: the sample selection bias when data refer to households and not individuals, and the treatment of pension income when drawing inferences from individuals' savings–age profiles about the relationship between an economy's savings and age structure. Our principal findings are that household data exaggerate savings rates of young adults and the elderly whilst underestimating those of 45- to 60-year-olds, and individual saving rates follow more closely the ‘hump shape’ of the life-cycle model, although the savings rates of the elderly remain positive for some ages.

Comment on ‘expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958–60’

In D. Peter Mazur's recent article, ‘Expectancy of Life at Birth in 36 Nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958–1960’, crude rates of death and expectancies of life for nationalities are derived from a scant base of data that includes crude rates of natural increase for administrative units and various ratios of composition of the populations of both administrative units and nationalities. Students of Soviet demography genuinely appreciate Mazur's attempt to derive rich results from meagre data. Of course, to do this strong assumptions are required and Mazur warns that ‘the quantitative results ... are valid only to the extent that the underlying methodology is theoretically sound’. One way to test the quantitative results is to examine how well the crude death rates for the nationalities calculated by Mazur reproduce the crude death rates for administrative units with which Mazur started. Mazur feels that the estimated death rates for nationalities closely agree with the death rates for administrative areas. The present author is sceptical. Application of the method described below does not show close correspondence, and this matter, which is crucial in the evaluation of Mazur's results, seems problematical.     

Men's influence on the onset and progress of fertility decline in Ghana, 1988–98

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further.     

The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997–2009

As couples across the globe increasingly exercise conscious control over their reproduction, both spouses’ family-size preferences have the opportunity to influence their fertility. Using couple-level measures of rural Nepalese spouses’ family-size preferences and more than a decade of monthly panel data collected subsequently on fertility outcomes, we investigate how both spouses’ preferences influence progression to a third birth in a country where the widely professed ideal family size is two children. Contrary to expectations based on women's relative disadvantage, we find that it is wives’ preferences that drive couples’ progression to a third birth. We find also that the influence of wives’ preferences is not explained by contraceptive use but that this influence is moderated by couple communication about family planning. Wives’ preferences drive progression to a third birth among couples who had discussed how many children to have.     

Temporal and spatial trends in the sex ratio at birth in Greece, 1960–2006: exploring potential environmental factors

Numerous studies have shown that the sex ratio at birth, defined as the relative number of male and female births, may be dramatically lower for small cohorts with high chemical exposures. Meanwhile, reports from different countries have shown recent declines in male births for the general population, perhaps implicating environmental factors. The sex ratio at birth has, therefore, been suggested by some as a sentinel environmental health indicator. This paper examines variation observed in sex ratio at birth in Greece since 1960. The analysis incorporates a number of demographic parameters including the age and nationality of the mother, partnership status and birth order, as well as urbanisation level. The latter is considered an indirect indicator of potential environmental incidence. Our main finding is that the sex ratio in Greece has experienced a slight, albeit statistically significant, downward trend, especially since 1980. Further, this decline is not attributable to changing demographics. Geographical differentiations were found to be quite significant: the sex ratio is significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban centres or Greater Athens, and this difference is increasing over time. We offer a preliminary interpretation suggesting that these temporal and spatial trends may, at least partly, be attributed to chemicals’ exposure due to higher levels of indoor and outdoor air pollution and different consumption habits encountered in urban settings. We argue that such possibilities warrant further research with explicit measures of exposure.

Contraceptive use at first intercourse among Jewish women in Israel, 1962–1988

Using data from the 1987–1988 Study of Fertility and Family Formation,this study examines the family planning practices of Jewish Israeli womenwho first had intercourse between 1962 and 1988. The overwhelming majorityof women reported using no contraception at first intercourse, and among those who did practice birth control approximately half relied on modern techniques. While the likelihood that Israeli women used contraception at first sex changed little between 1962 and 1988, there has been a marked shift towards the adoption of efficient methods of birth control. Moreover, factors which promote female empowerment, including education and military service, have been positively associated with contraceptive use at first intercourse. Among those women who practiced contraception at first intercourse, those from Africa and Asia have been especially likely to make use of inefficient methods such as withdrawal.     

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe,women born 1916–65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.     

Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of out-migrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955--1960 and 1965--1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955--1960 period to the 1965--1970 period.     

Love,necessity and opportunity: Changing patterns of marital age homogamy in the Netherlands, 1850–1993

Abstract. This article examines long-term trends in the pattern of age homogamy among first marriages, using vital registration data on all first marriages contracted between 1850 and 1993 in the Netherlands. After discussing the main mechanisms that could account for trends in age differences, we show that age differences between spouses narrowed considerably between 1850 and 1970. After 1970 the trend becomes less clear-cut.     

The effect of World War I and the 1918 influenza pandemic on cohort life expectancy of South Australian males born in 1881–1900

Cohort lifetime distribution functions have been estimated for the twenty separate calendar year cohorts of South Australian males born in 1881–1900. A cohort life expectancy at birth was calculated from each of these distribution functions, and a composite assessment made of the reduction in cohort life expectancy at birth due to both World War I 1914–1918 and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. By partitioning each cohort, the cohort life expectancy at birth of the subgroup that had overseas military service is estimated to be 85 to 90 per cent of the cohort life expectancy at birth of the subgroup that remained in South Australia.     

Can concern for the long-term care of older parents explain son preference at birth in India?

This study examines whether concern for the long-term care of older parents is the primary reason for son preference in India. Controlling for important socioeconomic factors that are believed to affect son preference, we find that concern for long-term care is the principal cause of son preference in India. Sons serve as the primary caregivers to elderly parents, while daughters are mostly engaged in caring for parents-in-law. This trend is more acute in rural than in urban areas. Our study also finds a strong implication of the filial relationship for the long-term care of elderly parents.     

Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930–1990

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973).     

An age–period–cohort analysis of cancer incidence among the oldest old,Utah 1973–2002

We used age–period–cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65–99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85–89 age group followed by declines at ages 90–99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100.     

Age at First Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland, 1252–1478

In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.     

A note on the population of Iran, 1900–1966

The first national census of Iran was held in November 1956, and the second in November 1966. Prior to 1956 the only official population records that existed were figures for an urban headcount (held between June 1939 and August 1941) and the statistics of the Civil Registration Office (C.R.O.), which started operations in 1928.     

The effect of immigration on the internal migration of the native-born population, 1981–1990

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market opportunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one-year migration patterns of Anglos and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US states among the covariates. Our departure model employs a logit specification to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional logit discrete choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predict destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of substitution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Anglo workers or receive new Anglo interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effect is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. Lower skilled Anglos are more susceptible to this substitution effect than those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigrant locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected occupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants.     

Changes in assortative mating: The impact of age and education, 1970–1890

Data from the U.S. Census and Current Population Survey are used to examine trends in the propensity to marry or to cohabit by the age and educational attainment of potential partners. Marriage rates declined sharply across all age and educational combinations between 1970 and 1980 and declined more sharply for less-educated persons between 1980 and 1990. The rise in cohabitation compensated somewhat for the decline in marriage rates, but the compensation was unequally spread among age and educational combinations. Highly educated men were more likely, and highly educated women were no more or less likely, to marry than to cohabit with less-educated partners in 1970 and 1980. By 1990, however, educational assortative-mating patterns between these two types of unions were similar. In 1990, marriages and cohabitations involving women who were better educated than their partners were more common than those involving women who were less educated than their partners. In addition, men and women in their early 20s tend to have partners better educated than themselves, but persons in their 30s tend to cross the less-than-high-school/ more-than-high-school educational barrier when partners differ in educational attainment.     

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

Less help for mother: The decline in coresidential female support for the mothers of young children, 1880–2000

Research on changes in women's parenting has focused primarily on their increased likelihood of combining parenthood with paid employment, exploring the pressures that result from this "second shift" or "double burden." This article complements this approach by focusing instead on the likely reduction in the help that mothers of small children have received as declines both in fertility and the coresidence of nonnuclear adults have reduced the number of other women in the household. Using national census data for the period 1880 to 2000, we show a substantial decline in the presence and availability of other females in the household, as fewer are coresident and more of those who are coresident are employed or in school. Although all mothers experience this decline, it is most acute for mothers working for pay in nonagricultural activities.