An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

Between 1950 and 1980, China experienced the most rapid sustained increase in life expectancy of any population in documented global history. We know of no study that has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of the various explanations proposed for this gain in survival. We have created and analysed a new, province-level panel data set spanning the decades between 1950 and 1980 by combining historical information from China's public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that gains in school enrolment and public health campaigns together are associated with 55–70 per cent of China's dramatic reductions in infant and under-5 mortality during our study period. These results underscore the importance of non-medical determinants of population health, and suggest that, in some circumstances, general education of the population may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Supplementary material for this article (Babiarz et al. 2014, Suppl.) is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972432     

An investigation of the unexpectedly high fertility of secular,native-born Jews in Israel

Secular, native-born Jews in Israel enjoy the socio-economic status of many affluent populations living in other democratic countries, but have above-replacement period and cohort fertility. This study revealed a constellation of interrelated factors which together characterize the socio-economic, cultural, and political environment of this fertility behaviour and set it apart from that of other advanced societies. The factors are: a combination of state and family support for childbearing; a dual emphasis on the social importance of women's employment and fertility; policies that support working mothers within a conservative welfare regime; a family system in which parents provide significant financial and caregiving aid to their adult children; relatively egalitarian gender-role attitudes and household behaviour; the continuing importance of familist ideology and of marriage as a social institution; the role of Jewish nationalism and collective behaviour in a religious society characterized by ethno-national conflict; and a discourse which defines women as the biological reproducers of the nation.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1195913     

On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972433     

The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975–79)

The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975–79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95?per cent simulation interval (1.2–2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5–2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1–2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21?per cent of the population at risk.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546     

Genetic influence on age at first birth of female twins born in the UK, 1919–68

Using a sample of monozygotic (945, 42?per cent) and dizygotic (1,329, 58?per cent) twin pairs born 1919–68 in the UK, we applied innovative tobit models to investigate genetic and environmental influences on age at first birth (AFB). We found that a substantial part (40?per cent) of the variation in AFB is caused by latent family characteristics. Genetic dispositions (26?per cent) play a more important role than the shared environment of siblings (14?per cent), with the non-shared environment/measurement error having the strongest influence (60?per cent). Like previous studies, this study reveals marked changes in estimates over time, and supports the idea that environmental constraints (war or economic crisis) suppress and normative freedom (sexual revolution) promotes the activation of genetic predispositions that affect fertility. We show that the exclusion of censored information (i.e., on the childless) by previous studies biased their results.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1056823     

Sodomy’s Penumbra

This article advocates a sodomitical approach to sodomy. Its approach is framed alongside and against three historical glosses on sodomy law: first, that sodomy law instantiates homophobia; second, that sodomy law targets sexual violence against boys; third, that sodomy law reaches assaultive sex against women that did not register as assaultive enough to qualify as “rape” by sexist juries. The first story of sodomy law is mostly wrong. The other two glosses pivot on protection: protection of boys or protection of girls and women. These accounts, tethered to identitarianism, underplay sodomy law’s multiplicity, as a source and symptom of our conflicted understandings of when sex is sex and when sexual violence is rape.

The first part of the article explains my choice of sodomitical sites. The second part complicates the story of sodomy as phobic. The third part complements the historiography of sodomy as protective against boys. The fourth part argues that the gloss on sodomy law as a corrective to disbelieved women is appealing but untrue. The final part makes the case that fellatio matters. The prevalence of forcible oral sex in sodomy cases intimates a cultural pluripotence of oral sex, as well as shifting definitions—in law and life—of sex and rape. This last story of sodomy law remains undetected under an identitarian radar.     

What We Can’t See? Understanding the Representations and Meanings of UAI,Barebacking, and Semen Exchange in Gay Male Pornography

Since the late 1990s, the use of condoms within gay male pornography has been on the wane. Moving from a niche category into more mainstream forms of commercial pornography, unprotected anal sex has become a dominant theme within this sphere of gay male sexual representation. However, while the definition of what constitutes bareback pornography may at first sight appear unproblematic, this article argues that meanings and understandings of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) are not constant across all genres of gay male pornography. Using textual analysis and focus group methods, the authors demonstrate how subcultural understandings of UAI are dependent on a variety of textual factors. These include the age, body type, and racial identities of the performers; the setting, context, and mise-en-scène of the pornographic scene; and the deployment of power relations between the insertive and receptive partners.

The article concludes by suggesting that the recognition of the diverse representations of “barebacking” found in contemporary gay male pornography should influence the ways in which health promotion strategies address discussions of UAI and bareback pornography.     

Future life expectancy in Australia,Europe, Japan and North America

Human life expectancy has risen in most developed countries over the last century, causing the observed demographic shifts. Babel, Bomsdorf and Schmidt (forthcoming) introduce a stochastic mortality model using panel data procedures which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect of mortality evolvement. Using this mortality model, the present paper provides forecasts of future life expectancy for 17 countries divided into 12 regions: Australia, Alps, Bene, Canada, England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Scandinavia and the United States of America. We consider (traditional) period life expectancies as well as cohort life expectancies, the latter being a more realistic approach but less common. It turns out that a continuing increase of life expectancy is expected in all considered countries. Further, we show that the probabilistic uncertainty of forecast life expectancies is different if either period life expectancies or cohort life expectancies are considered and, moreover, the uncertainty increases substantially if the error of parameter estimation is included.     

The Balanced Worth: A Procedure to Evaluate Performance in Terms of Ordered Attributes

There are many problems in the social sciences that refer to the evaluation of the relative performance of some populations when their members’ achievements are described by a distribution of outcomes over a set of ordered categories. A new method for the evaluation of this type of problems is presented here. That method, called balanced worth, offers a cardinal, complete and transitive evaluation that is based on the likelihood of getting better results. The evaluation of each society is based on the probability of obtaining better results with respect to the others. The balanced worth is a refinement of “the worth” (Herrero and Villar in PLoS ONE 8(12):e84784, 2013.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084784) that overcomes its excessive sensitivity to the differences, due to the presence of ties. We also discuss how this method can be applied for the case of heterogeneous populations and show how it can be applied in different contexts. An empirical example, regarding life satisfaction in Spain is used to illustrate the working of this method.     

A proposed explanation of the fertility gap differentials by socio-economic status and modernity: The case of Egypt

The present paper is part of a larger analysis of data collected in the summer of 1970 in the city of Cairo.1 A joint study between the Institute of Statistical Studies and Research and Centre for Sociological Studies, Cairo. The present analysis is based on a sub-sample of 569 households.     

Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures

Reliable forecasts of life expectancies are of importance for the financial stability of social security systems and the life insurance industry. A discrete-time stochastic process and a continuous-time stochastic process are proposed to model the dynamics of German mortality rates from which life expectancies are calculated. More precisely, a panel data model is utilized, which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect. The model is easy to fit, yields interpretable parameters, and allows for a simple analysis of the forecast error. The main applications of the model are the forecast of mortality rates—and the resulting life expectancies—and the pricing of mortality derivatives.

Breast feeding,mortality in childhood and fertility in a rural zone of Senegal

The data analysed in the present study were collected in the course of a demographic survey conducted at repeated intervals in the Sine-Saloum region of Senegal.1 This study was financed by a grant from the ‘Fond d'aide et de coopération’ of France, from 1963-65, and by the WHO Section for Research on Human Reproduction from 1966-67. The study was conducted by ORSTOM in collaboration with the Statistical Service of Senegal. The data used in this paper were analysed at INED. Only the data concerning the Sine (Niakhar) area are analysed here.     

Steep increase in best-practice cohort life expectancy

We analyze trends in best-practice life expectancy among female cohorts born from 1870 to 1950. Cohorts experience declining rather than constant death rates, and cohort life expectancy usually exceeds period life expectancy. Unobserved mortality rates in non-extinct cohorts are estimated using the Lee-Carter model for mortality in 1960–2008. Best-practice cohort and period life expectancies increased nearly linearly. Across cohorts born from 1870 to 1920 the annual increase in cohort length of life was 0.43 years. Across calendar years from 1870 to 2008, the annual increase was 0.28 years. Cohort life expectancy increased from 53.7 years in the 1870 cohort to 83.8 years in the 1950 cohort. The corresponding cohort/period longevity gap increased from 1.2 to 10.3 years. Among younger cohorts, survival to advanced ages is substantially higher than could have been anticipated by period mortality regimes when these cohorts were young or middle-aged. A large proportion of the additional expected years of life are being lived at ages 65 and older. This substantially changes the balance between the stages of the life cycle.     

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Education and Mortality: An Examination of Cohort, Race/Ethnic, and Gender Differences

Researchers investigating the relationship between education and mortality in industrialized countries have consistently shown that higher levels of education are associated with decreased mortality risk. The shape of the education–mortality relationship and how it varies by demographic group have been examined less frequently. Using the U.S. National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, which link the 1986 through 2004 NHIS to the National Death Index through 2006, we examine the shape of the education–mortality curve by cohort, race/ethnicity, and gender. Whereas traditional regression models assume a constrained functional form for the dependence of education and mortality, in most cases semiparametric models allow us to more accurately describe how the association varies by cohort, both between and within race/ethnic and gender subpopulations. Notably, we find significant changes over time in both the shape and the magnitude of the education–mortality gradient across cohorts of women and white men, but little change among younger cohorts of black men. Such insights into demographic patterns in education and mortality can ultimately help increase life expectancies.     

Disability among children of immigrants from India and China: Is there excess disability among girls?

We investigate whether there is excess morbidity among daughters of Indian or Chinese immigrants in the US by studying the prevalence of disability among children. We use data from the 2012–14 American Community Surveys on approximately 20,000 US-born children of Indian and Chinese immigrants. Children of US natives are used as a comparison group to account for innate differences in disability between the sexes. Results indicate that there is excess disability among daughters compared with sons among children of Chinese immigrants and children of immigrants from northern or western Indian states; this excess disability declines with younger age at arrival or longer exposure to the host country. Analysis using children of Filipino immigrants as an alternative comparison group yields similar excess disability rates for females.

Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1762911     

Application and Testing the Reliability and Validity of a Modified Version of Herek's Attitudes Toward Lesbians and Gay Men Scale in China

The present study was the first attempt to test the reliability and validity of Herek's Attitudes Toward Lesbians and Gay Men Scale (ATLG; Herek, 1988 Herek, G. M. 1988. Heterosexuals' attitudes toward lesbians and gay men: Correlatesand gender differences. The Journal of Sex Research, 25(4): 451–477. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in the Chinese population. Participants (n = 2,391 for the field trials and n = 200 for test–retest reliability) were asked to complete the translated, slightly modified version of the ATLG. The resulting ATLG has a two-dimensional factor structure as well as good validity and reliability in the Chinese culture. ATLG scores followed distinct patterns according sex and level of education that were consistent with previous studies in other populations. The significance of these findings in Chinese culture is discussed.     

Prospective study of birth interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh

A group of 209 married, fecund women in rural Bangladesh were studied prospectively for 24 months from 1969 to 1971 to define some of the biological and sociological factors relating to fertility performance. These women were selected from a larger study population of 112,000 that had been followed with a daily house-to-house vital registration programme since 1966. The selected women were interviewed bi-weekly and were asked questions about menstruation, pregnancy, lactation, husband's occupational absences, and monthly urine tests for pregnancy were taken. The results for 193 non-contracepting women revealed that the seasonal pattern of births previously observed in this population could be associated with a corresponding seasonal pattern of conceptions and that this was due to a seasonal trend in fecundability. The highest conception rates were in the coolest months of the year. Post-partum lactational amenorrhoea was very prolonged, averaging 17 months for women with a surviving child. The appearance of the first post-partum menstrual flow (onset of ovulation) also had a seasonal trend which could not be adequately explained. The median waiting time to conception, once menstruation had resumed was eight months. This interval was influenced by seasonal fluctuations, as well as by the age of women and by husbands' absences. The foetal wastage rate was 15·0 per 100 conceptions, with 62 per cent of the foetal losses occurring during the second month of gestation. Overall, the average birth interval was 33 months, with the prolonged lactational amenorrhoea accounting for almost 45 per cent of this interval.      

Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40–50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period–cohort translation.