Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies

The macroeconomic performance resulting from adopting an inflation targeting policy in emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia are examined. The research includes 26 countries in the period 1997–2019, with a special focus on the period 2008–2019. Our econometric analysis consists of two approaches: dynamic panel modeling and propensity score matching. The results suggest that macroeconomic performance has improved due to the inflation targeting monetary framework. We find that a policy of inflation targeting has been effective in reducing the inflation rate, inflation volatility, and GDP volatility. The results are particularly robust for the subperiod that started in 2008. Econometric results suggest that inflation targeting policy did not affect inflation persistence or GDP growth. Our results suggest that inflation targeting improves the macroeconomic performance of developing countries even when they only partially meet the standard requirements for its implementation.     

Preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil under the inflation targeting regime: Estimation using a DSGE model for a small open economy

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil after the inflation targeting regime (January 2000 to December 2013), using a DSGE model with microeconomic foundations for a small open economy, based especially on the work of Kam et al. (2009). The model used in this study considers that the Central Bank minimizes a loss function, taking into account the deviation of inflation from its target, output stabilization, the interest rate smoothing and, unlike the previous works, the exchange rate. The results show that the major concern of the monetary authority in the period was the stabilization of inflation, followed by interest rate smoothing, exchange stabilization and, finally, output stabilization. The large value for the exchange rate smoothing parameter suggests the presence of fear of floating in the Brazilian case. An improved inflation targeting strategy should allow for less Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market.     

浅析我国货币政策独立性与通货膨胀的关系——兼论2011年通胀

本轮自2008年底开始的经济衰退,在"适度宽松的货币政策"及积极财政政策的配合作用下,经济增长很快走出了低谷,效果明显。但自2010年下半年尤其是2011年却出现了较高的通货膨胀。本文从货币政策独立性的角度分析了通胀形成的原因。认为中央银行缺乏足够的独立性、财政政策货币化、缺乏弹性的汇率制度导致货币政策缺乏独立性,使得货币供应量失控并导致了通货膨胀。     

Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan

The motive of a typical discretionary central banker to accommodate excess inflation (inflation bias) is either to stabilize real growth or to spur it beyond natural rate. To what extent inflation bias helps to materialize this intention warrants empirical investigation. A more direct empirical probe into this issue, however, requires observable inflation bias indicators, which we model through desirable and threshold inflation rates as well as their respective society’s preferences. While examining the effects of inflation bias for a typical case of the discretionary monetary policy strategy of Pakistan, we found that contrary to the desired boost/stabilization in real growth, the policy (via. inflation bias) produced counterproductive results. Inflation bias was not merely ineffective in inducing real growth but significantly destabilized it. Moreover, the results, which are robust to different inflation bias indicators and subsample analysis, indicate that the higher the inflation bias, the higher is the intensity (magnitude) of its destabilizing effect and vice versa. This suggests that a policy that would minimize/constrain inflation bias would be a better choice as it would not only help achieve low and stable inflation but also a sustainable real economic growth.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

The relationship between social support and acculturative stress from cultural adaptation of people displaced from North Korea to South Korea

This study analysed the relationship between social support, financial independence, self-enhancement bias, and stress from cultural adaptation. For an empirical analysis, the data from 225 people displaced from North Korea were analysed. Our results suggest that social support has a positively significant effect on financial independence and self-enhancement bias; furthermore, financial independence has been shown to reduce stress from cultural adaptation. Therefore, social support reduces stress from cultural adaptation through financial independence. These results demonstrate that the social support of South Korea is very important for people displaced from North Korea in terms of their safely establishing settled living. In addition, considering the fact that the status of China is rising in international society, the results of the present study provide important insights into the provision of psychological stability to people displaced from North Korea.     

Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?

Over the last few decades several countries have turned to inflation targeting as a policy choice for instilling stability into their economies. Prior studies have shown that inflation targeting has reduced inflation in those countries without significantly impacting GDP. This study seeks to improve upon these results by identifying the impact of timing on the policy decision as well as its impact as related to specific regions of the world. The focus is on developing countries across six regions. We find significant regional variation in developing countries in our sample in terms of the direction of changes in inflation following a switch to the inflation targeting policy. Moreover, although the impact of inflation targeting on real GDP is minimal overall, there is a statistically significant increase in real GDP among developing countries in certain regions only, namely, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.     

Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?

This study is a contribution to the literature concerning credibility and its effect on the distribution between forward-looking behavior and backward-looking behavior for formation of inflation expectations in the case of emerging economies. Based on data gathered from seven inflation targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey), this paper analyzes how much the credibility associated with the inflation target contributes to anchoring expectations. The findings denote that although credibility is relevant to reduce inflation expectations, these countries present low monetary credibility and thus the backward-looking behavior is predominant for the formation of inflation expectations. Therefore, in order to improve the expectations channel of monetary policy in emerging economies, a policy of increasing transparency regarding inflation expectations is mandatory to the central banks’ task of anchoring inflation expectations.     

An Institutional Analysis of the Multi-layered Characteristics of Social Organizations in China

The actual state of affairs of Chinese social organizations and the latest theoretical findings on the subject indicate that independence and autonomy are concepts that are interrelated but not fundamentally interchangeable; their actual organizational relationship is complex and varied. Exploration of the relationship between the two concepts is a necessary step in the construction and improvement of a rule-based interpretation of the characteristics of Chinese social organizations. Combining resource dependence theory with the institutional logics perspective enables us to analyze the multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between independence and autonomy at the organizational level and to test for these mechanisms using a mixed methods research design. Our empirical findings indicate that social organizations gain greater autonomy when they have greater independence from government resources and when they strongly identify, structurally and behaviorally, with classical third sector theory. Organizations’ behavioral identification can regulate the relationship between independence and autonomy. Further case studies support the value of the above findings. This shows that other mechanisms can often replace, offset or constrain the effects of resource dependence. In the real world, no single fixed theory can cover the independence-autonomy relationship.     

1919～1920年北京教育界索薪运动论析

1919～1920年北京教职员的索薪运动,是民国时期教育独立运动的真正开端。此次索薪运动,矛头直指北京政府,明确提出教育独立的主张,政府也因此明令确定教育基金。索薪运动激起教育界的自觉意识,使教育独立运动在20世纪20年代成为教育界共同的声音;同时还引发了教育界内部一系列问题。剖析此次索薪运动,可以管窥民国时期的整个教育界。     

A model of the inflationary process in six major O.E.C.D. economies: Empirical results and policy implications

In contrast to most recent empirical work on inflation which has concentrated on the size and stability of coefficients in the wage equation, this paper provides a reexamination of the price equation. Evidence is presented on the structural determinants of inflation in six large industrial nations. It is demonstrated that price equations which include capital costs and excess demand among the regressors perform exceedingly well according to the usual statistical criteria. The results of this study indicate that the inflationary process possesses a high degree of uniformity among the larger industrial countries. This pertains not only with respect to the specific independent variables in price equations, but also with respect to the high degree of uniformity of the estimated coefficients. Additionally, the findings indicate that lower productivity growth and higher capital costs have contributed significantly to the inflationary process since 1974. Furthermore, since higher capital costs are one consequence of tighter monetary policies, the adoption of such policies in response to the two oil price shocks of the 1970s may have offset their intended deflationary effects on prices through the linkage of wage costs and aggregate demand.     

北洋初期司法界与湖北军政当局的矛盾与抗争--以刘豫瑶案为例

自清末实施司法改革以来,司法独立原则被正式引入中国。北洋政府初期,虽然政局扰攘不安、社会经济紊乱,但在一定时期内司法独立原则仍保有形式上的尊崇。而1919年冬,湖北督军王占元、省长何佩瑢藉口本省高等审判厅厅长刘豫瑶徇私枉法,竟擅自委任督军署军法课长程定远暂代厅长,并派兵拘押原代理厅长陈长簇,劫夺厅印,开民国以来地方最高军政长官联手干涉司法行政的嚆矢。由于该案性质极其恶劣,随即招致中央司法部与湖北高等审判厅的群体反击。双方围绕司法行政等问题往复申辩,最终以中央政府介入调停和司法独立原则获得重申而告结。该案中反映的各种认知冲突及各方的行为模式,折射出北洋军阀时期军政关系的多元面相。     

民进党当局的“台独外交”与东南亚

民进党当局出于地缘战略的考虑,在东南亚重点推行“台独外交”。一些东南亚国家由于历史、地理、经济、文化等诸多因素的考虑,采取的是一种在大陆和台湾之间搞平衡的实用主义政策,因而在台湾问题上不断突破对中国的承诺,使双边关系受到影响。东南亚国家应与中国联手遏制“台独”,这不仅有利于地区的和平、稳定与繁荣,也符合东南亚各国的根本利益。     

Estimating potential output in developing countries

This paper describes a parsimonious methodology employed by the World Bank for estimating potential output using the production function method. Despite the necessity of strong assumptions, sensitivity analysis suggests the reported estimates for 159 countries are robust to alternative specifications. Moreover, for the majority of countries estimated output gaps are positively correlated with inflation acceleration and negatively correlated with current account balances. An examination of estimated output gaps and post-crisis economic developments in several middle-income countries suggest that the methods can play a useful role in guiding macroeconomic policy.     

Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?

This paper investigates the monetary policy reaction functions of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) over the periods 1987:01–2001:12 and 2002:01–2009:05. We specifically attempt to shed light on question to what extent exchange rate developments still continue to influence monetary policy, even under inflation targeting. This study seeks to investigate how the monetary policy responded to the exchange rate shocks before and after adoption of inflation targeting regime. How large the effect of exchange rate shocks is accounted for in forecast error variances decompositions for monetary policy as compared to other shocks? Using the VAR model, this study shows that there has been strong pass-through during whole period. Moreover, in the postcrisis period, exchange rate has been the main reaction variable for the CBRT.     

Utility theory with probability dependent outcome valuation: Extensions and applications

This article extends Karni's (1992) Utility Theory with Probability Dependent Outcome Valuation (UTP-DOV) to accommodate a wider set of preferences, and applies the new representation to a variety of decision problems under risk. First, we present a new, more general, axiomatization of UTPDOV that renders the underlying intuition more transparent. Second, we develop sufficient conditions under which UTPDOV satisfies the betweenness and the ordinal independence axioms. Finally, we examine functional forms of the UTPDOV model that are consistent with several well known departures from the independence axiom.     

全球金融危机背景下的中国经济发展战略转型

改革开放30年来的经济腾飞,以国际市场需求为导向的外向型经济功不可没;在经济全球化时代,一国经济与外部的相关性应体现为主动性、获益性、可控性、可持续性,否则,这种依赖性就会造成对外依赖的“锁定”;世界上没有哪个大国的现代化是依靠外向型经济战略而完成的。对于外向型经济转型,自主型发展战略是一个最优选择。处于全球金融风暴中的中国,应该实施自主型发展战略,通过技术创新、制度创新、管理创新,同时又强调外向型经济与内向型经济之间、区域之间、城乡之间、国内外市场之间、人与自然之间、经济与社会之间以及各种文化融合和更新之间的均衡和协调,实现经济发展战略尽快转型。     

Research Note: Managing the Financial Assets of Older People: Balancing Independence and Protection

Family involvement in managing the financial assets of olderpeople is an area of policy and practice importance. This importancerelates to the complexity of older people’s assets, systemsof paying for care and concerns around substitute decision-makingand financial abuse. Although a common task of informal care,little is known about older people’s experiences and wishesin relation to asset management. This paper reports on a qualitativestudy of the experiences and perspectives of thirty-four olderpeople receiving such assistance. It identifies three scenariosthat promote or inhibit independence in this context and drawsout the challenges for this emerging area of practice with olderadults and their families.     

前30年艰辛探索,后30年突破创新

以十一届三中全会为标志,新中国60年的历程大体可分为前后两个30年。前30年,党领导人民实现了民族独立,对社会主义建设道路进行了艰辛探索,为改革开放打下了坚实的基础。后30年,党始终把改革开放作为发展中国特色社会主义的强大动力,创新突破,锐意进取,实现了科学发展,国家富强,中华民族迎来了伟大复兴的光明前景。两个30年是一个过程的两个阶段:前30年为后30年奠定基础,提供经验和教训,后30年是对前30年的继承、校正、发展和创新。两个30年都是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必经阶段,否认任何一个30年都是对历史的阉割。     

The impact of a Tax-Based Incomes Policy on U.S. macroeconomic performance: An optimal control study

This study attempts to estimate the potential impact of a Tax-Based Incomes Policy (TIP) on macroeconomic performance by applying an optimal control algorithm to the Wharton Quarterly Econometric Model. A TIP is any tax incentive that would induce firms and/or workers to reduce wage increases. Our study is applicable to any version of TIP. To isolate TIP's potential impact, we compare the optimal path of the economy without TIP to the optimal path of the economy with TIP. Our conclusion is that a TIP may be able to significantly improve the path of inflation, unemployment, and real GNP simultaneously.