城市低碳交通体系对能源消费结构的影响研究——来自中国十四个城市的面板数据经验

节能减排的重要性已成为国际社会的共识,我国也积极改善城市公共交通体系来控制碳排放。本文搜集了中国十四个城市近10年的面板数据,构建随机效应变系数模型,研究了城市低碳交通体系发展对能源消费结构的影响,研究发现：政府可以利用公共交通定价策略影响消费者偏好,从而实现能源消费结构的优化;城市低碳交通体系中轨道交通对能源消费结构优化有显著性促进作用;公共汽（电）车对能源消费结构的影响会随城市发展程度增加而降低;交通部门可通过限行、限购及加收停车费等方式提高传统汽车购买及出行成本,影响私人汽车保有量,从而减少能源消费结构优化的阻碍。政府应该加大财政补贴力度,补贴由购置补贴转向研发和运营基础设施补贴,改善轨道交通及合理的公共汽（电）车运营体系,提高新能源汽车研发投入,鼓励高能量密度低电耗技术的发展,提高居民对新能源乘用车的需求,优化能源消费结构。     

A regional end use energy demand model

This paper describes a long-term energy demand forecasting model for Northern Ireland. The model is of the ‘what-if’ type for testing possible futures described by the model user and is based on a detailed activity analysis approach. The demand subsystem of the Northern Ireland energy system is divided into seven sectors and the demand for four end use categories for fuels considered. The structure of each of the seven sectors is modelled and future fuel demands calculated based on the driving functions of population and social and economic activity. For a given input scenario the model calculates the dockside oil equivalent primary fuel in tonnes for each year for 30 years.     

The Baumol Gap Revisited. An econometric analysis of the productivity differential between U.K. manufacturing and service firms, 1982–1989

The gap in productivity growth between manufacturing and service sectors is analyzed at company level using a panel of 328 British companies. This paper evaluates differences in the rate of growth of technological progresss (“Baumol gap”) in manufacturing and service companies, taking full account of the impact of changes in market competition, union recognition and financial position of firms. The empirical results suggest: (i) the gap in total factor productivity is significant and negative for distribution, lodging and catering sectors, positive but less significant for transport and communication sectors; (ii) the technological gap is higher than the gap in labour productivity; (iii) the gap can be attributed to technological factors, and it is invariant to the use of firm–level variables that capture effects on workers and managers effort; (iv) the estimate of total factor productivity growth in manufacturing and services is slightly influenced by these variables.     

考虑保鲜努力与增值服务的生鲜电商供应链最优决策与协调

针对一个生鲜电商与一个生鲜供应商组成的供应链，其中生鲜电商负责销售农产品并提供增值服务，而生鲜供应商负责农产品的保鲜配送。考虑保鲜努力与服务水平均会影响生鲜农产品的市场需求，通过构建集中式与分散式下的生鲜电商供应链决策模型，分析了新鲜度需求弹性、服务需求弹性等因素对最优决策的影响，并对比分析了分散式与集中式决策下的最优决策。在此基础上，设计了"收益共享-双向成本分担"契约，通过合理设计契约参数实现了生鲜电商供应链的完美协调与帕累托改进。最后，进一步深入分析了供应链在协调前后的最优决策变化，并用数值算例进行了考察与验证。研究发现：供应链在协调后必然会提高产品新鲜度与服务水平，但可能会导致更低或更高的生鲜农产品销售价格。当新鲜度需求弹性与服务需求弹性较低时，生鲜电商在协调后会制定相对更低的产品价格，实施"优质低价"策略；而在新鲜度需求弹性或服务需求弹性高于某一水平时，生鲜电商在协调后会制定相对更高的产品价格，实施"优质优价"策略。     

基于I-O与SVAR模型的制造业完全能耗强度影响因素研究

改革开放以来,制造业完全能耗强度尽管总体呈下降趋势,但与发达国家相比,仍处于高位。本文考虑了制造业隐含能源消耗,基于投入产出法构建了制造业完全能耗强度测度公式,并基于WSR方法论构建了制造业完全能耗强度影响因素体系,运用SVAR模型探究1980-2016年各因素对制造业完全能耗强度的影响规律。结果表明,在短期内,企业规模、产业结构、能源价格、技术进步、FDI等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。企业平均规模与重工业占比、技术进步率上升,制造业完全能耗强度下降;而能源价格、FDI上升,制造业完全能耗强度上升。中长期内,企业规模、产权结构、能源价格、产业结构、技术进步等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。能源价格、国有企业占比、技术进步率上升,制造业完全能耗强度先降后升;企业平均规模、重工业占比上升,制造业完全能耗强度先升后降。适度扩大企业规模,合理调控能源价格,推进产权结构多元化等对降低制造业完全能耗强度贡献相对突出。     

Impacts of Power Structure on Supply Chains with Uncertain Demand

In this study, we use a game‐theory‐based framework to model power in a supply chain with random and price‐dependent demand and examine how power structure and demand models (expected demand and demand shock) affect supply chain members' performance. We demonstrate that whether a firm benefits from its power depends on the expected demand model but not on demand shock model. A firm benefits from its power only for linear but not for constant elasticity expected demand. The impact of power structure on supply chain efficiency depends on the models of both expected demand and demand shock. With additive shock, supply chain efficiency is highest (lowest) when neither firm dominates for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. With multiplicative shock, the supply chain efficiency is highest with a power retailer (manufacturer) for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. The manufacturer always benefits from a reduction in demand uncertainty. However, the retailer loses (benefits) from demand uncertainty reduction for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. With a power retailer, the retail price is always on the higher end for linear expected demand, and the customer service level is the lowest for constant elasticity expected demand. Consequently, consumers do not necessarily benefit from a power retailer.     

Urban Risks of Truck Transport of Radioactive Material

Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from "stakeholders" based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.     

Energy analysis: A review of methods and applications

The paper describes the aims and applications of energy analysis, emphasising its role as a complement to conventional financial analysis. It is shown to provide useful insights in applications such as forecasting price rises due to a fuel price rise, calculating the net costs of fuel obtained from unconventional sources, forecasting energy demand and evaluating energy conservation schemes. Although the field is still young, and most activity is in compiling reliable data bases, its systems approach and methods promise to make it a useful tool for evaluating patterns of resource uses.     

城市土地利用规划的交通影响评价建模研究

本文提出了一种基于投入产出关系和连续逼近方法的城市土地利用的交通影响评价模型。作为城市土地可持续利用规划模型的一个子模型,本模型已在桂林市的总体规划中得以实施。在本文中,先简要介绍了城市土地可持续利用规模模型,接着基于投入产出关系估算了分行业的单位产值对应的货物运输量,然后以交通熵和交通周转量作为评价指标,基于投入产出关系、连续逼近方法和Huff商区模式分别建立了货物运输、居民工作出行和居民购物出行交通影响评价模型。     

Planning for electricity generation in India

A country's economy and its energy base have a complex yet strong relationship. As a result the provisioning of an increasing quanta of energy is a vital pre-requisite for the economic growth of a country. With certain exceptions it has been found from a study of the per capita electric energy generation and per capita income that between 0·7 and 2 units of electric energy are required for generation of one unit of income. The exact relationship will vary from country to country depending on the particular energy-mix, the extent of industrialization and the energy efficiency of the economy. In the case of India, with the increasing contribution being made by the manufacturing, mining, transportation and communication sectors to the gross national product, the linkage between energy consumption and the deflated GNP are specific and strong. This paper outlines the methodology by which the relationship has been modelled and a forecast made of the energy demand.     

基于4PL的跨境电商物流联盟多方行为博弈研究

在对我国4PL跨境电商物流联盟运作模式分析的基础上，针对基于跨境电商平台主导的跨境电商物流联盟，运用演化博弈理论，分析联盟内跨境电商平台、物流服务商和商家之间的动态博弈过程，构建三者在不同策略下的演化博弈模型，并结合系统动力学对三方策略选择的动态博弈进行仿真分析。结果表明，在联盟运作过程中：（1）各方参与者最终会达到"平台监管、物流企业努力、商家参与"的均衡状态，并且商家参与对联盟稳定运作具有重要作用。平台监管对物流企业策略选择具有直接影响，其应制定科学的惩罚力度及补偿裁定，以提升物流服务质量并保障商家权益；（2）联盟各方参与者对其相关外生变量具有较高的敏感性，但其最终策略受多个变量的共同作用，为此平台需发挥其主导作用，采取多种措施激发物流企业及商家的积极性。     

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY AND ITS EFFECT ON MARKET POWER IN THE GAS MARKET

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) limits CO₂ emissions from covered sectors, especially electricity (accounting for about 56%). At $44 billion per annum. the ETS is the largest emissions trading system ever, 40 times larger than US programmes. The article demonstrates that fixing the quantity rather than the price of carbon reduces the price elasticity of demand for gas appreciably, amplifying the market power of gas suppliers, and amplifying the impact of gas price increases on the electricity price. A rough estimate using British data suggests that this could increase the Lerner Index by 50%. (JEL: Q54, Q58, L94)     

基于惩罚机制的公——铁联运企业行为的协调

本文研究独立公路、铁路运输企业开展联合运输,独立制定运输计划,合理分配运能的协作问题。由于成本结构的不同,分散决策时,不同类型的分运人决策有Pareto改进的余地。考虑到需求的不确定性,运用博弈理论构建了两区段分运人企业衔接式联运的纵向博弈模型。结合集中一体化决策,分别分析了有第三方惩罚控制和无第三方惩罚控制时,分散决策的冲突行为及其变化特征。研究显示通过合理惩罚参数P_I^o和P_II^u的设计,可以使分散决策中的两企业的能力达到集中决策的效果,两企业的行为得到协调。论文进一步对惩罚机制的合理适用范围进行了探讨,发现对于分运人I,制定过高的惩罚反而会降低整体系统的最终能力。而对于分运人II,制定较高的惩罚则有助于抑制其运能供给不足的行为。最后,通过算例分析验证了相关结论的正确性。     

Three energy scenarios for the United Kingdom

The general principles of constructing scenarios and using them to explore policy options have been described in an earlier paper¹. This paper summarizes the results of a preliminary examination of the three scenarios described there and referred to as ‘business-as-usual’, ‘technical-fix’ and ‘low-growth’. The investigation departs from conventional discussions of fuel policy in that it emphasizes the management of fuel demand, and the interaction between fuel demand and life-style, rather than emphasizing fuel supply policies. The relationship between life style and fuel demand can be quantified using the methods of energy analysis.² This method is capable of fine disaggregation and relatively high accuracy. However the aim of the studies reported here was to establish the range of feasible options and the types of policies needed to accomplish them. For this purpose high accuracy is not important so considerable data aggregation has been retained. The detailed analyses presented in this paper are estimated to be accurate to ±15 per cent.The first part of the paper sets out the analysis of the base year (1968) on which the future projections are based. This involves explaining the principles of energy analysis and the method of projection used. The next sections examine the three scenarios in some detail, starting with the estimation of fuel demand and then looking at the fuel supply and management policies needed.     

基于需求预测的两级动态配送路径优化研究

针对传统响应式配送难以应对海量动态客户需求的困境,在此提出基于需求预测的两级动态配送路径优化方法。利用历史数据从需求预测、需求聚类和需求配额三个维度,处理电商物流配送过程中的动态需求;建立基于需求预测的单阶段和多阶段两级车辆配送路径优化模型,并针对问题特性利用分支定界算法与CW-禁忌搜索算法生成两个阶段的最优配送路径。最后结合实验案例对模型与算法的有效性进行验证,试验结果表明本文设计方法具有较好的动态场景适应度和客户响应能力。     

A model of e-commerce use by internationalizing SMEs

Globalization and e-commerce pose new challenges and provide new competitive opportunities, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) seeking to broaden their involvement into new international markets. Yet, SMEs are only beginning to embrace these new opportunities. The authors derive a model describing the use of e-commerce by internationalizing SMEs, developed by integrating findings from case studies of 12 Canadian SMEs exporting to Japan with a broad range of management theories. The cases represent two very different sectors: hospitality/tourism and high tech. The research first describes how the firms use e-commerce internationally, by examining resource commitment, web function and cultural adaptation. It then explains why the firms use e-commerce, by relating two types of environmental variables — market changes and industry norms — and three firm factors — technical capability, cultural capability and firm size — to the firms' adoption of e-commerce. Implications for SME managers are discussed and nine propositions are put forth to guide and focus future research.     

基于投入产出非线性优化的制造业完全能耗强度情景分析

当前,环境污染仍为中国最突出的问题之一,而降低制造业完全能耗强度是减少消耗及污染的重要途径。本文基于投入产出非线性优化理论,以制造业完全能耗强度最小为目标,并以18个行业最终需求为决策变量,构建了一个完全能耗强度非线性优化模型,特引入了进出口系数等约束条件,并基于已有投入产出表等数据,预测调整模型的相关系数。在此基础上,设计了三个方案与两个情景,并运用粒子群算法求解模型。结果表明:2015年中国制造业完全能耗强度最小值区间为0.7823-0.9048tce/万元,相比2010年,下降率区间为8.9%-21.31%。在高方案情景2下,可实现制造业完全能耗强度降低20%的目标。为实现该目标,应促进中低能耗制造业发展、降低高能耗制造业的完全能耗量、适当提高消费和进口系数并降低投资和出口系数。本文既有利于政府部门制定科学系统的节能减排政策,也有利于深化能源经济与管理理论。     

动态市场竞争环境下电子商务企业盈利能力的影响因素研究

为找到电子商务企业高投入、低投资回报现象存在的原因,本文首先运用数据包络分析（DEA）模型计算了电子商务企业投入对产出的过度效应,即投入拥挤,然后将之与行业内的市场竞争程度和移动电子商务的发展相结合,通过构建面板数据回归模型,详细探讨了动态市场竞争环境下电子商务企业盈利能力的影响因素。研究结果证实了资产规模过大对传统电子商务企业盈利能力具有削弱作用,而市场集中度和移动电子商务的发展则对传统电子商务企业盈利能力具有推动作用。这些发现启示企业经营管理者应聚焦于移动电子商务发展带来的新机遇,消除投入拥挤,通过调适生产规模和新业务模式的创新,开辟新的营销渠道和盈利模式。     

Understanding and Planning for Freight Movement in Cities: Practices and Challenges

ABSTRACT

Planning for freight presents a perpetual challenge for governments. Understanding freight flows has attracted increasing research attention, though such knowledge can be difficult to translate to address problems in planning practice. This paper critically assesses the challenges of understanding and planning for urban freight movement, especially with reference to achieving more sustainable outcomes. In doing so, we elucidate guidance for broader analytical and policy approaches suited to meeting diverse public interest objectives. We review the literature with specific reference to the nature of policy problems, while collating existing conceptual knowledge for broad urban land use types.     

THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF PRODUCTIVITY AND DEMAND SHOCKS IN THE US ECONOMY

This paper analyzes the cross‐country effects of productivity and demand disturbances in the United States identified with sign restrictions based on standard theory. Productivity gains in US manufacturing increase US consumption and investment vis‐à‐vis foreign countries, resulting in a trade deficit and higher international prices of US goods, despite the rise in their supply. Financial adjustment works via a higher global value of US equities, real dollar appreciation, and an expansion of US gross foreign liabilities as well as assets. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also increase investment and cause a real dollar appreciation, but have limited effects on the trade balance and net foreign assets. Our findings emphasize the importance for macroeconomic interdependence of endogenous fluctuations in aggregate demand across countries in response to business cycle shocks.