New perspectives on population: lessons from Cairo

The lessons from the 1994 World Population Conference in Cairo, Egypt, are summarized in this publication. The topics of discussion include the evolution of population policies, the changing policy environment, demographic trends, and solutions in the form of gender equity, provision of reproductive health services, and sustainable social and economic development. The program of action supported by 180 governments and targeted for 2015 articulated the goals of universal access to a full range of safe and reliable family planning methods and reproductive health services, a specified level of reduction in infant and child mortality, a specified level of reduction in maternal mortality, an increase in life expectancy to 70-75 years or more, and universal access to and completion of primary education. Other features include goals for improving women's status and equity in gender relations, expansion of educational and job opportunities for women and girls, and involvement of men in childrearing responsibilities and family planning. Steps should be taken to eliminate poverty and reduce or eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. Population policy must be integrated within social and economic development policies. About $22 billion will be needed for provision of family planning and reproductive health services by the year 2015. Costs will increase over the 10-year period due to the increased population to be served. Per person user costs for family planning alone are higher in countries without infrastructure and technical skills. Actual costs vary with the cost of contraceptive supplies, patterns of use, and efficiency of delivery systems. Although the plan offers 16 chapters worth of advice and recommends 243 specific actions, countries will have to be selective due to cost limitations. The 20/20 Initiative is proposed for sharing social service costs between international donors (20%) and host countries (20%). A separate UN projection of need is for 33% of support from international donors for family planning and related programs. The constraints to the implementation of the action plan are identified as the rate of demographic change, the extent of public support for population limitation and provision of family planning services, and potential conflicts of interests and funding between cooperating agencies. The World Bank has developed guidelines for policy development according to a country's identification as an emergent, transitional, or advanced country.     

The ideology of population control in the UN draft plan for Cairo

This paper examines the influence of population control ideology on the draft plan for the UN Cairo Conference on Population and Development. It is argued that this draft plan can only be fully understood in the context of the recent history of the population control movement and of the empirical reality of population control in particular countries. The paper focuses on the origins of the ideology of population control in the eugenics movement initially, and more recently in organisations such as International Planned Parenthood Federation. The role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in promoting an incremental approach towards the wider acceptance of population control since the first intergovernmental conference on population in Bucharest in 1974, is outlined. Despite the serious loss of credibility for the UN, through the association of the UNFPA with the Chinese population control programme — the most coercive programme of its type in history — the UN in the draft plan for Cairo continues to promote the ideology of population control. This paper argues for the need to develop a more positive model of development, which acknowledges the complementarity between the lack of development of poorer countries and their potential for significant progress, and the overdevelopment of industrialised regions, whose future growth is increasingly based on intense competition for shrinking markets.This article is based on a paper, presented to the International Geographical Union Congress at Prague, 21–27 August 1994.     

The changing face of the Maltese population

In the last decade the Maltese population has seen an influx of overseas-born individuals. This has been largely due to Malta’s access to the European Union and the increased intake of refugee immigrants. These immigration trends have resulted in changes in population composition, with the overseas-born population increasing from 17,740 (4.7%) in 1995 to 24,560 (6.1%) in 2005. There has also been an increase in the proportion of births registered in Malta to overseas citizens, including citizens of non-EU Europe (1.1%); the African continent (1.5%); America (0.3%); and Asia (0.8%). About ten per cent of marriages in Malta are between a Maltese spouse and a foreigner. The data suggest that the Maltese population is slowly becoming more cosmopolitan, a trend that is gradually changing the ethnic composition of the Maltese community.     

Emerging population issues among adolescents and youth

The authors "examine the emerging population issues of adolescents and youth [in Sri Lanka]. The demographic pressures have resulted in the expansion of the numbers in this age category which in turn has caused problems of employment creation. The educational expansion has brought about changes in the age at marriage and life styles, which in turn has created the need for greater attention on reproductive health issues among adolescents and youth."     

从学龄人口变动看未来山东省基础教育与师范教育的发展

本文对山东省学龄人口的变动趋势作了预测,同时对未来山东省中小学的教师需求量进行了测算,据此,对未来山东省基础教育与师范教育的发展作了展望.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

再论人口“迁移”的概念与统计口径界定

人口迁移概念与统计口径的不一致始终是国内学界争论不休的一个问题,本文具体分析了这种概念的模糊及统计口径的混乱,探讨了存在这种混乱的深层次原因,并尝试提出统一的概念及具有一定可操作性的统计口径。     

Tax reform,population ageing and the changing labour supply behaviour of married women

The burden of financing retirement incomes in an ageing population is predicted to rise sharply in future decades. This paper investigates the effects of reforms to the Australian tax-benefit system involving a greater reliance on proportional taxation for raising revenue and a more targeted welfare system for cutting government expenditure, in order to reduce expected budget deficits. Estimates of changes in net incomes and hours of work suggest that reforms of this kind shift the tax burden to lower and middle income households with a second earner and that they can have counter-productive labour supply effects. The study explores the impact of projected increases in female work force participation and illustrates the importance of shifts in the labour supply of married women in predicting the fiscal effects of demographic change.I wish to thank the discussants of this paper, Sijbren Cnossen and Hiromitsu Ishi, for their detailed and constructive comments which have been most helpful in revising the paper. Thanks are also due to John Buchanan, Glenn Jones, John McCallum and Elizabeth Savage for their comments and suggestions.This research has been supported by a grant from the Australian Research Council.     

The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan "turnaround" represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the "new" migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.     

Choosing the best population development goal]

Optimizing goals for controlled population growth and development through mathematical modeling has a practical value and is of important theoretical significance. An integrated model for optimizing multiple interactive targets for population development is proposed. A wide array of user-prioritized (weighted) economic indices or factors may be incorporated into this n-tuple m-dimensional model, by which complex linear and vector space computations are solved and interpreted through conventional mathematics. Although this numerical approach toward problem solving is imperfect, when properly used, the mathematical model presented in this paper is a practical and efficient means for solving multidimensional problems.     

Understanding the population dimension in development planning

In the Philippines initial efforts to adopt population policies focused on reducing rapid population growth through fertility control. The history of the national population welfare congress, which started in 1978, reflects this emphasis on family planning as a major deterrent to rapid population growth. It was only in recent years that the 2-way relationship between population and development came to be better appreciated. The 6th National Populaton Welfare Congress was a response to this need to broaden the scope of population concerns and integrate the population dimension into development planning. This viewpoint regards population not as a demand variable but as a factor that can be influenced by economic and social development. Dr. Mercedes B. Concepcion, dean of the University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI), discussed population trends, prospects, and problems in a paper presented before the 6th congress. In 1980, she said, the Philippine population was 48.1 million persons, up by 11.4 million persons or 31%, over the3l.7 million enumerated in 1970. While the rate of populated growth remains high, data indicate a decreasing post-World War II trend, from 3.06% in 1948-60 to 2.68% in 1975-80. The proportion of the population below 15 has dropped by 2 percentage points, while the number of persons in the working ages 15-64 has increased. In 1 of the 3 group sessions during the congress, the participants tried to define the Philippines' population distribution goals, the requirement of an urban-rural balance, and priority intervention areas. In that session 2 main papers were presented -- one on human settlements and urbanization and the other on macroeconomic policies and their spatial implications. In another sessionplanners and researchers examined the socioeconomic and demographic impact of development programs, specifically the impact of rural electrification on fertility change in Misamis Oriental, a province in Southern Philippines. In the main paper presented in that session, Dr. Herrin indicated that the most rapid decline in marital fertility in the Philippines occurred among highly educated parents with high incomes and living in the urbanized areas of Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, and Central Luzon. The 3rd group session discussed mortality trends and prospects as well as the present forms of government intervention to reverse these trends. Generally, a declining trend has been observed in the crude death rate and in infant mortality.     

An evaluation of the population and development program in Egypt

Previous rural surveys analyzing the impact of the Egyptian Population and Development Program on KAP variables (knowledge, attitudes, and practices of contraception) have produced mixed results. In 1982 a survey specifically designed to measure program impact contained refinements in questionnaire measurement, sampling, and analysis. Each refinement intensified the apparent program impact. Fertility itself still appears unresponsive, and attitudes toward family size have changed little, but marked differences between program and nonprogram areas in contraceptive knowledge, attitudes, and practice suggest imminent fertility declines in program areas.     

Issues on the strategy of population development]

The author, who works at the Population Institute of Sichuan Financial University, deals with issues regarding the strategy of population development in China and applies the population theories of Marxist and Leninist thought. The importnace of establishing a strategy of population development, in order to create an "optimum situation" for China's population in the future, specifically within the next 50-100 years is stressed. In addition to emphasizing the value of family planning and the use of birth control as a means of achieving this optimum population, it is reommeneded that the central government as well as the local governments of each province set up a strategic plan spanning 10, 20, 50, or 100 years with the aim of creating such optimum situation. The Marxist term optimum population is used to refer to a situation in which an area's population is o foptimum quality, quantity, and geographical distribution. The Marxist principle of 2 types of production are noted: production of material and production of population. General as well as local strategies are of extreme importance for the development of productive strength in China now and in the next 50-100 years.     

An outline of study on China's population / environment issues

Attention is given to population and growth and the impact on the environment and resources in China. Policies for managing the environment and instituting population education are also addressed. The first position paper of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPAC) on June 2, 1990 is summarized. The population of China was 1.11 billion in 1989. The rate of growth in 1988 was 14.2/1000 in 1988. 91% live in the southeast on 43% of the land. Land area is 9.6 million square miles. 65% can be made arable, and 14% is cultivated. China has 7% of the world's arable land and 20% of the world's population. Population growth has reduced arable land/captia. The impact on forests has been deforestation. 13% of land is currently forested, and timber reserves encompass 9.14 billion cubic meters, or 9 cubic meters/person. The demand for firewood and timber will increase. The impact on grasslands has been overgrazing and desertification at a current rate of 1560 square kilometer/year. The impact on energy resources is a greater demand for coal which will increase and thus increase pollution of the environment. The impact on water resources is greater demand and increased pollution. Water resources are 2700 cubic meters/person or less than the world average. 26.8 billion tons of waste water were industrially discharged out of 36.8 billion tons. 436 of the 532 rivers are polluted. The impact on the environment is a decreased standard of living. NEPAC reported that air pollution was slightly reduced in 4% of the cities in 1988, increased in 4%, and stable in the remaining cities. Water quality improved through the lowering of industrial waste water discharges, but 72% of river segments are still above the standards. Each major river system is discussed. Noise increased, and industrial solid wastes increased. Forest reserve is 9.141 billion cubic meters; the man-made forest has increased. The loss of grasslands is .13 million hectares/year. Cultivated land is 95.72 million hectares, but 100,000 hectares/year are damaged by natural disasters and 6 million are polluted by industrial wastes. 606 nature preserves have been established. In 1989, a complete legal system of environmental protection was established and investment increased.     

On some theoretic issues about planned control of population]

There are basic differences between Marxian and Malthusian population thought: 1) For Marx, population is a social phenomenon--human reproduction belongs to social production and population laws are social laws influenced by the means of production. Marx recognized that human reproduction had both a natural and a social relationship, but Malthus population theory only acknowledges the natural relationship of human reproduction. Malthus believed that if population grows without interference, it will double every 25 years, or geometrically. It is evident Malthus substituted biological possibilities for the objective inevitability of population evolution, and natural population laws for social population laws. 2) Marx believed that social production is the unification of material production and human reproduction. Material production is controlled and necessitates control of human reproduction. For Malthus, the growth of the means of subsistence never catches up with the growth of the population, but Marx said that even though land is limited, the development of production forces is limitless. Marxist theory postulates that man is basically a producer, but that population must be planned because not everyone is a producer (e.g., children and the unskilled). 3) Malthus believed that in capitalistic countries unemployment, famine, and poverty stem from too many births by the laboring class, i.e., population determines the economy. The only solution to population problems is to have fewer children. For Marx, economics determines population problems.     

The impact of taxation on the distribution of wealth in an economy with changing population

The paper investigates into the determinants of the personal distribution of income and wealth. In an overlapping generations model all individuals are assumed to be identical except for their inherited wealth. Since life time is random the bequest of an individual and thus the inherited stock of capital of its children are stochastic variables. Taxation and social security contributions affect life cycle savings, bequests, and, eventually, the distribution of income and wealth in the society. It is shown that, in general, higher tax rates reduce distributive inequality as long as the rate of interest is exogenously given. In steady state, however, where the rate of interest is determined endogenously, increasing taxation and higher social security payments both diminish the capital labor ratio so that the rate of interest rises. If this interest effect is strong enough then it may outbalance the tendency toward more equality because higher interest rates enhance initial differences in the distribution of both income and wealth and, eventually, the inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in the society.     

学龄人口变动与人力资源——基于重庆市2005-2020年学龄人口变动的探讨

教育投资的对象是人,而人口作为个体人的集合,其变动必然对教育产生各种各样的影响。本文以重庆为例,在对重庆市人力资源开发现状、2005-2020年学龄人口发展状况和现存教育资源充分分析的基础上,对重庆市未来教育资源整合、提升人力资源开发层次等问题进行探讨并提出一点政策建议。     

青海人口与可持续发展初探

可持续发展是当今社会最热点的问题之一,其中人口问题是可持续发展的核心。青海由于其特殊的地理位置,素有“世界屋脊”、“江河源头”、“中华水塔”之称。因此,青海的人口与可持续发展尤为世人所关注。本文针对当前青海存在的主要人口问题,探讨青海人口与可持续发展问题。