Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates' Gender Affects Their Vote*

Objective. This study examines whether women's electoral fortunes in Australia have improved in line with changing social norms over the past century. We use new strategies to explore whether female candidates face discrimination by the voting public, or by political parties' preselection systems. Methods. Using data from all elections to the House of Representatives between 1903 and 2004, we examine the relationship between candidates' gender and their share of the vote. We consider the electoral performances of female independent candidates, female incumbents, and female candidates from the Australian Labor Party (after 2001) in order to determine whether the bias against female candidates is driven by voters or preselectors. We also make use of gender pay gap and attitudinal data to examine how the ballot box penalty has shifted in line with changing social norms. Results. We find that the vote share of female candidates is 0.6 percentage points smaller than that of male candidates (for major parties, the gap widens to 1.5 percentage points), but find little evidence that the party preselection system is responsible for the voting bias against women. Over time, the gap between male and female candidates has shrunk considerably as a result of changes in social norms (as proxied by the gender pay gap and attitudinal data) and the share of female candidates running nationwide. Conclusions. A statistically significant gender penalty has been a consistent feature of Australian federal elections since 1903. The penalty against female candidates has narrowed since the 1980s, and this bias lies with the voting public rather than with the political parties themselves. We find little evidence that party‐based affirmative action policies have reduced the gender penalty against female candidates.     

Ideological Centrism and the Electoral Fortunes of U.S. Senate Candidates*

Objective. The Downsian model of electoral competition with its individual‐level assumption of proximity voting by individuals implies that candidates in two‐party systems should perform better in elections when they adopt platforms more closely mirroring preferences of average constituents. Since extant analyses do not place candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric, they do not directly test the electoral consequences of proximity to voters. This study provides a direct test. Methods. I use the NES Senate Election Study to locate candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric and use ordinary least squares regression models to analyze the effects of candidate positioning on electoral outcomes. Results. Although stiff electoral competition may make it more likely that candidates gain votes by locating near average citizens, candidate proximity does not generally have a meaningful effect on Senate elections. Conclusions. Insignificant electoral benefits from ideological centrism may help explain candidate divergence in elections and has important implications for the nature of representation.     

Populism? Minor parties and independents in the Australian Federal Parliament, 1945–2016

The election of four One Nation Senators at the 2016 Australian Federal election has been seen as part of a world–wide rise of populist movements that criticizes main stream politics and rejects pluralism, putting forward single concepts of “the people”, that the movements claim to represent. While it is clear that Australian voters, like voters elsewhere, have been seeking alternatives to the major parties, it is less clear that the preferred alternatives fit this populist framework. Australia provides a good case study as the Australian electoral system makes it relatively easy for independents and minor parties to be elected to Parliament. This paper examines all independents and minor party candidates successfully elected in 2016 and at previous Australian Federal elections to determine whether the alternatives to the main stream parties elected since 1945 fit anti-pluralist populist models. It is concluded that, with the exception of the One Nation Party, most of the independents and minor party candidates elected to the Australian Federal Parliament have not fitted such models. However many of those elected do present a challenge to the electoral claims of the major parties. The article concludes by considering the implications of these findings for representative democracy.     

Women Running for Judge: The Impact of Sex on Candidate Success in State Intermediate Appellate Court Elections*

Objective. This article will examine whether candidate sex impacts electoral outcomes in judicial elections. Methods. We examine the success of male and female candidates in contested, nonretention elections for state intermediate appellate courts (IACs) from 2000–2006 using OLS and logistic regression analysis. Results. We find that there is no systematic bias against women candidates in IAC races over this period. In fact, there is some evidence that women may actually perform slightly better than men. Conclusions. Contrary to the claims of some scholars, these results suggest judicial elections do not hinder diversity on the state appellate bench.     

The Continuing Dominance of Traditional Gender Roles in Southern Elections*

Objective. Studies of the election of women to public office have been increasingly encouraging about their prospects of female candidates. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which gender roles continue to influence the election of women to local office and the pool of candidates for higher office. Methods. Utilizing data on the gender of officials, the nature of the office, and constituency demographics from county elections in eight Southern states, we construct logit models of the election of women. Results. Women hold few local offices involved in fighting crime or of an executive nature. On the other hand, women routinely win election to process‐oriented offices with less discretion. Our analysis of constituency demographics reinforces our conclusions. Women win election in areas where the public office is relatively undesirable compared to other opportunities and the ratio of high‐quality male to high‐quality female candidates is relatively low. Conclusions. Although the frequent election of women to county office provides an expanded pool of female candidates for higher offices, it seems unlikely that women will find it as easy to move up the electoral ladder into the more competitive arena of high‐profile statewide and federal leadership offices.     

Campaign Fundraising in State Supreme Court Elections*

Objective. What factors affect the ability of candidates for state supreme courts to raise money? In this article, I test (and expand) existing theories of political fundraising (taken largely from legislative studies) in the context of judicial elections. Methods. I examine the determinants of campaign contributions to all candidates running for the state supreme court from 1990–2000 in states that have competitive judicial elections. Most basically, I hypothesize that a candidate's ability to raise money is dependent on characteristics of the candidate, the state electoral and supreme court context, and institutional arrangements. Results. The results suggest that candidates who have a greater probability of success than their opponents are better able to raise money. Yet, all is not within the control of the candidates, as the electoral context of the state and the court as well as the institutional arrangements of the election and the court are also relevant. Conclusions. Campaign fundraising by state supreme court candidates, much like fundraising by legislative candidates, can be understood in systematic and predictable ways. Candidates have some control over the amount of money that they are able to raise (and thus their electoral viability), although there is little they can do about the electoral and supreme court context. Additionally, institutional arrangements play a large role in raising campaign funds, suggesting that there is not much reformers can do to limit the amount of money involved in elections short of eradicating elections altogether.     

The Impact of Candidate Sex on Evaluations of Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objectives. To examine how voters and the general public evaluate women candidates by examining ideological and issue‐based evaluations of women candidates for the House of Representatives. Methods. Data are drawn from the National Election Study for all U.S. House elections from 1990 to 2000. OLS and logistic regression models examining the role of candidate sex in evaluations are tested. Results. When evaluating Democratic candidates, people see them as more liberal and utilize more female issues in their evaluations when the candidate is a woman. For Republican candidates, candidate sex is much less likely to be related to how people evaluate them. Conclusion. The central role of party in public evaluations of women candidates suggests that the impact of candidate sex on voters is more complex than previous works have suggested.     

The Effects of Candidate Gender on Campaign Spending in State Legislative Elections*

Objective. This article will investigate whether candidate gender affects levels of campaign spending in state legislative elections. Methods. The analysis compares men and women candidates running for the state legislature in 20 states over two election cycles. By controlling for a range of contextual factors, the analysis isolates the independent influence of candidate gender. Results. The findings demonstrate that women and men spend similar levels of campaign funding in running for the state legislature. Running as incumbents, challengers, or open‐seat candidates, women are not at a financial disadvantage relative to similarly situated men candidates in the general election. Conclusions. Although women may suffer difficulties at other parts of the electoral process, women are not at a disadvantage relative to men in how much money their campaigns ultimately allocate for the purposes of gaining voter support.     

Fusion ballots as a candidate-centered reform: Evidence from Oregon

This article argues that fusion balloting, or the ability of multiple parties to nominate a single candidate for office, can be viewed as a candidate-centered and incumbent-oriented reform. Using the recent passage of fusion legislation in Oregon in 2009 and its subsequent use in 2010 state legislative elections as a test case, I study the factors behind supporting fusion legislation in both chambers of the state legislature and how these same factors affected, or did not affect, the incumbents that received cross-nominations in the 2010 elections. Overall, I find that party did not play a direct role in determining which legislators supported fusion, though female legislators were less supportive. When it came to obtaining nominations, the main finding is that incumbent candidates who voted yes to fusion were generally more likely to receive nominations. Still, legislators from the group that most opposed fusion, Democratic women, attempted to win cross-nominations once the 2010 elections approached. These findings suggest that candidate factors, more than party dictates, affected support for fusion and the ability of incumbents to receive cross-endorsements. Thus, the willingness of major-party candidates to adopt fusion can be understood through theories of candidate-centered elections and political parties.     

Staying on topic,changing the topic: language and gender in the 1995 Louisiana governor's race

This study examines the gendered use of topic shifting within an electoral community of practice of ten candidates for the governor of Louisiana (three female, seven male) during two political debates. Despite gender, the candidates shared the same communicative goals of building camaraderie with voters as well as distinguishing themselves from each other within these debates. Due to these shared goals, the debate context provided a type of baseline setting to explore whether or not previously established language and gender patterns, such as male communicative goals being generally competitive and female goals being generally collaborative, hold in a public forum. Overall, topic shifting has tended to be seen as a conversational control mechanism associated with competition and male patterns of speech. However, meta-topic shifting (i.e., shifting the topic from a particular educational plan to education in general) has been seen as a collaborative strategy associated with female speech. The findings on men's speech and topic shifting did not support previous research; however, the findings on women's speech and meta-topic shifting did support previous research.     

Institutional and District‐Level Sources of Competition in State Legislative Elections*

Objectives. What are the sources of partisan competition in state legislative elections? Specifically, what impact do institutional features have relative to district‐level conditions on competition between party nominees? Methods. Using data from 30 states in 1994 and 1996, a range of factors are examined to determine their influence on both the likelihood that a race is contested and the degree of competition that results. Results. Multiple regression analyses indicate that a district's characteristics, measured as social and partisan diversity, have a strong and durable influence on elections. Contested elections are more likely and competition levels are higher in districts with heterogeneous populations. Institutional characteristics such as legislative professionalism also have a large influence, although the direction of their impact varies by stage of the electoral process examined. For example, professionalism increases the likelihood that an election is contested, but leads to a lower level of competition between opposing candidates. Conclusions. District‐level conditions have a large influence on competition; however, incentives created by institutional features are also critical for understanding the competitiveness of state legislative elections.     

Explaining third-party success in gubernatorial elections: The cases of Alaska, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota

In the 1990s alone, four states elected third-party governors. Walter Hickel of Alaska and Lowell Weicker of Connecticut were elected in 1990. Maine elected Angus King in 1994. And Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998. In this article, I examine these four cases in an attempt to identify the factors that contribute to third-party electoral success. I apply two models to these cases. The first model, “alternative culture,” holds that certain voters—regardless of specific context—are predisposed to support alternative candidates. The second model, “institutional context,” looks at factors such as name recognition, resources, and access to media as explanations of third-party success. I find that except for the influence of “partisan independence,” there is little evidence to support the persistence of an alternative culture of third-party voting. Rather, these four cases are linked by a context particularly favorable to these alternative candidates.     

Who won political elections in Hong Kong over time?

Addressing the question about who won in political elections in Hong Kong can reveal its trajectory of democratic development. Because a democracy requires fair representation in elected members, whose performance and ideological orientation can appeal to rational and ideologically sophisticated citizens, incumbents and partisans tend to be more successful in winning the democratic election. To examine this instance of democratic development, the study compiles a dataset including all candidates (3,811 cases) contesting for elections from 1982 to 2000. It finds the general trend that incumbents and partisans of some major parties were more likely to win the contests. Furthermore, it estimates the relative chance separately for 17 elections during the period and examines the influence of time. As a result, it detects that the favorable effects of incumbency and party affiliation tended to increase with time. These findings imply the steady democratic development in Hong Kong.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Plurality Rule Works In Three-Candidate Elections

In the citizen–candidate approach each citizen chooses whether or not to run as candidate. In a single-peaked preference domain, we find that the strategic entry decision of the candidates eliminates one of the most undesirable properties of Plurality rule, namely to elect a poor candidate in three-candidate elections since as we show, the Condorcet winner among the self-declared candidates is always elected. We find that the equilibria with three candidates are basically 2-fold, either there are two right-wing candidates and a left-wing candidate who wins the elections (or its symmetric), or there is a right-wing candidate, a left-wing candidate, and a candidate located in between the two others who becomes winner. We also show that when four or more candidates enter the contest, Plurality rule can elect the Condorcet-loser among the self-declared candidates.      

Lies,Damned Lies,and Campaign Promises? Environmental Legislation in the 105th Congress*

Objective. The extent to which candidates for elected office keep their campaign promises holds great interest for citizens and has important consequences for the quality of democracy. However, we know very little about whether candidates actually keep these promises. This article examines the relationship between campaign promises and the subsequent legislative behavior of members of Congress in the area of environmental protection. Methods. Responses to the 1996 National Political Awareness Test (NPAT) are matched with roll‐call data on environmental issues from the 105th Congress. A series of bivariate probit models with selection are then used to assess the extent to which roll‐call votes are consistent with candidate policy statements in the NPAT. Results. We find that members of Congress vote consistent with their campaign promises 73 percent of the time, and that NPAT responses help to predict roll‐call votes even when controlling for party, race, gender, campaign contributions, and previous environmental voting record. We also find that the propensity to keep campaign promises varies systematically across types of legislators. Conclusions. Contrary to public perceptions, candidates for Congress routinely act to keep their campaign promises once elected, at least in the area of environmental protection policy.     

Probabilities of electoral outcomes: from three-candidate to four-candidate elections

The main purpose of this paper is to compute the theoretical likelihood of some electoral outcomes under the impartial anonymous culture in four-candidate elections by using the last versions of software like LattE or Normaliz. By comparison with the three-candidate case, our results allow to analyze the impact of the number of candidates on the occurrence of these voting outcomes.

     

Race,Roll‐Off,and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections*

Objectives. Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll‐off as a city undergoes racial transition. Methods. Using a fixed‐effects regression model, we analyze the level of voter roll‐off (from the top‐of‐the‐ballot mayoral contest) among black and white voters across Memphis City Council elections, from 1967 through 2003. Results. The level of voter roll‐off among racial groups is sensitive to the racial aspect of political change. Black voters are most likely to continue to vote in council contests when there is a racial choice among candidates, when blacks have previously been elected, and when blacks occupy the mayoralty and a majority of council seats. Whites are most likely to vote in racially competitive council contests, as well as when there are a large number of white candidates, and when whites hold a majority of the council seats. Conclusions. In settings such as Memphis, where race has played a pronounced historic role, the racial context of political empowerment has a strong influence on electoral participation. Elections below the top‐of‐the‐ballot become more salient, and political efficacy grows among racial group members when that cohort occupies institutional positions, particularly the majority of positions in a governing institution.     

Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous?*

Objective. Past research on ballot order effects has typically focused on the average benefit a candidate receives if placed at the top of the ballot. This study addresses a gap in the literature by examining the possibility that a simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters. Methods. Using data from all Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004, a sample that covers 1,187 separate electoral contests and 7,113 candidate × election observations, this study estimates the effect of ballot order on a candidate's share of the primary vote. To determine whether ballot order effects differ across voters as well as candidates, the study also makes use of electorate‐level demographic data from the 1996 and 2001 Australian censuses. Results. The results of these estimations indicate that being placed first on the ballot increases a candidate's vote share by about 1 percentage point. As a proportion of their total vote, this effect is much larger for independents and minor parties than for major parties. The ballot order effect appears to be similar for male and female candidates, and does not show strong trends upward or downward over the 20‐year period covered by our study. Across electorates, the ballot order effect is higher in places where voters are younger and fluency in English is lower. Conclusions. A statistically significant ballot order effect was a consistent feature of Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004. Moreover, this study challenges the assumption that ballot order effects are homogenous, and finds that the effect of being placed atop the ballot varies across both candidates and voters.     

Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype*

Objectives. This article looks at the effects of candidate Catholicism on individual voters, turning the traditional inquiry into voters' religion on its head. Specifically, it hypothesizes that individuals stereotype Catholic candidates based on the voting behavior of Catholics in general, and that these stereotypes help voters make a decision in elections with Catholic candidates. Methods. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), this article argues that citizens hold stereotypes of Catholics based on actual Catholic political behavior—solidly Democratic from the 1950s to the 1970s, but trending Republican starting in the 1980s. It also tests these stereotypes with Gallup data on hypothetical Catholic candidates and analyzes, through election‐day exit polls, the impact on voters of the Catholic conversion of a sitting U.S. Senator. Results. The data analyses strongly support the article's hypothesis, demonstrating that partisan attitudes toward hypothetical Catholic candidates shifted direction as the Catholic electorate shifted. In addition, Senator Sam Brownback's (R‐KS) conversion to Catholicism increased partisan polarization in his support—indicating a conservative shift in perceptions. Conclusions. Candidate religion plays a role in elections. Specifically, voters stereotype candidates based on candidate religion and use this stereotyped information to help them make an electoral decision. This article demonstrates this effect for Catholicism, but other religions should evidence similar impacts.