Dangerous Climate Change: The Role for Risk Research

The notion of "dangerous climate change" constitutes an important development of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It persists, however, as an ambiguous expression, sustained by multiple definitions of danger. It also implicitly contains the question of how to respond to the complex and multi-disciplinary risk issues that climate change poses. The invaluable role of the climate science community, which relies on risk assessments to characterize system uncertainties and to identify limits beyond which changes may become dangerous, is acknowledged. But this alone will not suffice to develop long-term policy. Decisions need to include other considerations, such as value judgments about potential risks, and societal and individual perceptions of "danger," which are often contested. This article explores links and cross-overs between the climate science and risk communication and perception approaches to defining danger. Drawing upon nine articles in this Special Issue of Risk Analysis, we examine a set of themes: limits of current scientific understanding; differentiated public perceptions of danger from climate change; social and cultural processes amplifying and attenuating perceptions of, and responses to, climate change; risk communication design; and new approaches to climate change decision making. The article reflects upon some of the difficulties inherent in responding to the issue in a coherent, interdisciplinary fashion, concluding nevertheless that action should be taken, while acknowledging the context-specificity of "danger." The need for new policy tools is emphasised, while research on nested solutions should be aimed at overcoming the disjunctures apparent in interpretations of climate change risks.     

Unquestioned Answers or Unanswered Questions: Beliefs About Science Guide Responses to Uncertainty in Climate Change Risk Communication

In two experimental studies we investigated the effect of beliefs about the nature and purpose of science (classical vs. Kuhnian models of science) on responses to uncertainty in scientific messages about climate change risk. The results revealed a significant interaction between both measured (Study 1) and manipulated (Study 2) beliefs about science and the level of communicated uncertainty on willingness to act in line with the message. Specifically, messages that communicated high uncertainty were more persuasive for participants who shared an understanding of science as debate than for those who believed that science is a search for absolute truth. In addition, participants who had a concept of science as debate were more motivated by higher (rather than lower) uncertainty in climate change messages. The results suggest that achieving alignment between the general public's beliefs about science and the style of the scientific messages is crucial for successful risk communication in science. Accordingly, rather than uncertainty always undermining the effectiveness of science communication, uncertainty can enhance message effects when it fits the audience's understanding of what science is.     

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile.     

Belief in Public Efficacy, Trust, and Attitudes Toward Modern Genetic Science

Government and policymakers want to engage the public in a dialogue about the conduct and consequences of science and increasingly seek to actively involve citizens in decision-making processes. Implicit in this thinking is that greater transparency and public inclusion will help dispel fears associated with new scientific advancements, foster greater public trust in those accountable, and ultimately increase the acceptability of new technologies. Less understood, however, are public perceptions about such high-level involvement in science and how these map onto public trust and attitudes within a diverse population. This article uses the concept of public efficacy -- the extent to which people believe that the public might be able to affect the course of decision making -- to explore differences in trust, attentiveness, and attitudes toward modern genetic science. Using nationally representative data from the 2003 British Social Attitudes Survey, we begin by examining the characteristics of those who have a positive belief about public involvement in this area of scientific inquiry. We then focus on how this belief maps on to indicators of public trust in key stakeholder groups, including the government and genetic scientists. Finally, we consider the relationship between public efficacy and trust and attitudes toward different applications of genetic technology. Our findings run contrary to assumptions that public involvement in science will foster greater trust and lead to a climate of greater acceptance for genetic technology. A belief in public efficacy does not uniformly equate with more trusting attitudes toward stakeholders but is associated with less trust in government rules. Whereas trust is positively correlated with more permissive attitudes about technologies such as cloning and gene therapy, people who believe in high-level public involvement are less likely to think that these technologies should be allowed than those who do not.     

Education for operational research

The paper debates the requirements of education for operational research (O.R.). It is assumed that the objective of O.R. is to secure improvement in social systems by means of scientific methods. It is argued that the programme of learning and the methods of teaching should converge to this end. There is a brief review of what some of those who are responsible for courses in operational research at universities have said about their aims and curricula. The confusion over aims and the imbalance between the rational account of O.R. and the empirical approach is briefly discussed. There follows a plea for an effort to describe the structure of O.R. and the need for a taxonomy from which a better understanding of the educational problems may emerge. The essay concludes by asserting that the climate, nature and content of research especially in the universities should be such as to attract men of great talent and hopefully a few men of genius who will advance the subject to the status of a major science.     

Dangerous News: Media Decision Making about Climate Change Risk

This article explores the role of broadcast news media decision makers in shaping public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It locates the media within a "tangled web" of communication and debate between sources, media, and publics. The article draws on new qualitative research in the British context. The main body of it focuses on media source strategies, on climate change storytelling in news, and the "myth of detachment" sustained by many news decision makers. The empirical evidence, gathered between 1997 and 2004, is derived primarily from recordings and notes drawn from a series of seminars that has brought together equal numbers of BBC news and television decision makers and environment/development specialists. The seminars have created a rare space for extended dialogue between media and specialist perspectives on the communication of complex climate change science and policy. While the article acknowledges the distinctive nature of the BBC as a public sector broadcaster, the evidence confirms and extends current understanding of the career of climate change within the media more broadly. The working group discussions have explored issues arising out of how stories are sourced and, in the context of competitive and time-pressured newsrooms, shaped and presented in short news pieces. Particularly significant is the disjuncture between ways of talking about uncertainty within science and policy discourse and media constructions of objectivity, truth, and balance. The article concludes with a summary of developments in media culture, technology, and practice that are creating opportunities for enhanced public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It also indicates the need for science and policy communities to be more active critics and sources of news.     

Trust,Emotion, Sex,Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept risk and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach—one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.     

Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in U.K. Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the "circuit of culture" model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985-2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change-1985-1990, 1991-1996, 1997-2003-which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.'s broadsheet newspapers' discourse on "dangerous" climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.     

The past,present and future of health care quality. Urgent need for innovative,external review processes to protect patients

There are three paths to quality health care standards: the regulatory route, the "learning science" route, and the futuristic "management science" route. The regulatory path leads to punishment and blame. The learning science path splits, with one road leading back to harsh regulations and the other to the halls of academic medicine. And the management science path, while short, will be the road to success as American health care struggles to improve quality and overcome well-publicized and deadly medical errors.     

Environmental Risk, Precaution, and Scientific Rationality in the Context of WTO/NAFTA Trade Rules

This article considers the role of scientific rationality in understanding statements of risk produced by a scientific community. An argument is advanced that, while scientific rationality does impose constraints on valid scientific justifications for restrictions on products and practices, it also provides flexibility in the judgments needed to both develop and apply characterizations of risk. The implications of this flexibility for the understanding of risk estimates in WTO and NAFTA deliberations are explored, with the goal of finding an intermediate ground between the view that science unambiguously justifies or rejects a policy, and the view that science is yet another cultural tool that can be manipulated in support of any decision. The result is a proposal for a dialogical view of scientific rationality in which risk estimates are depicted as confidence distributions that follow from a structured dialogue of scientific panels focused on judgments of evidence, evidential reasoning, and epistemic analysis.     

关注科技实力的评估、指标和排序

我们正处在一个经济、科技、教育日益全球化的时代。为了驾驭日益复杂和迅速变化的科技系统,各国决策者必须依靠同样比较复杂的指标系统和定量分析。对综合国力、科技实力的计量分析,不仅在国内,即使在国家外,也是一门新兴的学科。为了科技兴国,为了改变我国总是处在被评估、被解释、被冲击的“三被”地位,我们必须关注和建设起基于自己数据资料和分析的科学计量学指标体系与评价方法。     

Eight puzzles of leadership science

In the early 1900s, David Hilbert introduced a set of 23 mathematical problems. These problems caught the imagination of mathematicians around the world for the coming century and beyond. The advantage of such defined scientific puzzles is to galvanize coordinated efforts to pursue key scientific questions, whose answers can also address the grand challenges faced by society. Consequently, science can advance more quickly in a theory-driven, rigorous, open and collaborative manner, with meaningful implications for stakeholders. In the current editorial, I propose eight puzzles that could similarly motivate and guide leadership science. Whereas this list is not exhaustive--rather it is just eight starting points--beginning to solve such puzzles will accelerate our science and deliver on shared promises to our stakeholders. I then present actionable guidelines necessary to solve these puzzles and conclude by discussing the role The Leadership Quarterly will play in facilitating the pursuit of solutions to these puzzles.     

北京市科普资源开发与共享现状及对策研究

一个国家的科普能力,集中表现为国家向公众提供科普产品和服务的综合实力.而科普资源既是科普工作的基础和工具,也是提升科普能力的重要因素.伴随着公民科学素质建设的推进,以及科学发展观在全社会的树立和落实,怎样提高科普资源的利用效率,建立共建共享平台的长效机制,使科普资源真正服务于公众并见到实效,已成为我国当前乃至今后一个时期科普事业发展中最关键、也最具基础性的工作之一.本研究旨在总结科普资源科学发展的经验,发现影响和制约其发展的问题,探讨科普资源共建共享的科学方法,为北京市的科普资源开发和共享工作提供决策依据.     

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications

To solve real‐life problems—such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change—and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular.     

Options in Radioactive Waste Management Revisited: A Proposed Framework for Robust Decision Making

Deregulation, with concurrent pressure on electricity utilities, has fundamentally changed the once-"closed" radioactive waste management system controlled by the so-called "nuclear establishment." Advocacy coalitions may change-who knows in which direction-but policy learning may also take place. This article presents a framework to evaluate the management options for a specified concept of "sustainability." When weighing the different objectives in view of the long-lasting potential danger of radiotoxic substances, the overall goal of a sound waste management system is to demonstrate safety. The first-priority objective of a disposal system, therefore, is its stability so that it can comply with the protection goal, that is, the long-term protection of humans and the environment from ionizing radiation. The complementary objective is flexibility, defined here as intervention potential. Because trade-offs within the "sustainability triangle" of ecology, economy, and society are unavoidable, the concept of "integral robustness"-both technical and societal-is introduced into radioactive waste management. A system is robust if it is not sensitive to significant parameter changes. In the present case, it has to have a conservative, passively stable design with built-in control and intervention mechanisms. With regard to technical implementation, a concept called "monitored long-term geological disposal" is presented. Such an "extended" final disposal concept emphasizes technical robustness, recognizes evaluation demands (for a potential break-off of a project), and enhances process-based transparency. This open approach admittedly sets high challenges with regard to technicalities as well as the institutional setting and the management process. It requires "mutual learning" by and from all stakeholders to achieve a truly sustainable radioactive waste management system.     

Climate Change and Human Health: Estimating Avoidable Deaths and Disease

Human population health has always been central in the justification for sustainable development but nearly invisible in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. Current scientific evidence indicates that climate change will contribute to the global burden of disease through increases in diarrhoeal disease, vector-borne disease, and malnutrition, and the health impacts of extreme weather and climate events. A few studies have estimated future potential health impacts of climate change but often generate little policy-relevant information. Robust estimates of future health impacts rely on robust projections of future disease patterns. The application of a standardized and established methodology has been developed to quantify the impact of climate change in relation to different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. All health risk assessments are necessarily biased toward conservative best-estimates of health effects that are easily measured. Global, regional, and national risk assessments can take no account of irreversibility, or plausible low-probability events with potentially very high burdens on human health. There is no "safe limit" of climate change with respect to health impacts as health systems in some regions do not adequately cope with the current climate variability. Current scientific methods cannot identify global threshold health effects in order for policymakers to regulate a "tolerable" amount of climate change. We argue for the need for more research to reduce the potential impacts of climate change on human health, including the development of improved methods for quantitative risk assessment. The large uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on human population health should be a reason to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and not a reason for inaction.     

Analyzing Precautionary Regulation: Do Precaution,Science, and Innovation Go Together?

In this article we argue that the precautionary principle, as applied to the regulation of science and technology, cannot be considered in any general manner inconsistent with the norms and methods of scientific knowledge generation and justification. Moreover, it does not necessarily curtail scientific‐technological innovation. Our argument flows from a differentiated view of what precaution in regulation means. We first characterize several of the most relevant interpretations given to the precautionary principle in academic debate and regulatory practice. We then use examples of actual precaution‐based regulation to show that, even though science can have varying functions in different circumstances and frames, all of those interpretations recur to scientific method and knowledge, and tend to imply innovation in methods, products, and processes. In fact, the interplay of regulation and innovation in precautionary policy, at least in the case of the interpretations of precaution that our analysis takes into account, could be understood as a way of reconciling the two fundamental science and technology policy functions of promotion and control.     

The Weakest Link: Demonstrating the Inconsistency of "Appropriate Levels of Protection" in Australia-Salmon

In Australia-Salmon, the WTO Appellate Body found Australia to be in violation of the WTO SPS Agreement based on the inconsistency of the "appropriate level of protection" underlying various SPS measures. Article 5.5 of the SPS Agreement prohibits arbitrary or unjustifiable distinctions in "appropriate levels of protection" if such distinctions result in discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade. In Australia-Salmon, Canada challenged Australia's import ban on salmon. Australia permitted the entry of other fish products that were known to host some of the same diseases cited by Australia in justifying its salmon import ban. The distinction in the "appropriate levels of protection" between Australia's regulation of salmon and its treatment of these other fish products was found to be "arbitrary or unjustified" and to have "resulted in a restriction on international trade."Australia-Salmon was the first WTO decision to find an Article 5.5 violation. Canada successfully made a "weakest link" argument to undercut Australia's regulatory justification. The decision rests on the relationship between the risk purportedly justifying the salmon import ban and the risk seemingly ignored in Australia's treatment of other fish products-the regulatory "situations" compared concerned the identical pathogens with the identical potential consequences. As such, Australia-Salmon may be an example of a category of regulatory "chains" that are peculiarly exposed to Article 5.5 challenge. In responding to the Appellate Body's ruling, Australia reduced its limits on salmon and imposed new restrictions on the other fish products. The outcome suggests that a challenge of one SPS measure under Article 5.5 may lead to the imposition of new restrictions on other imported products-an unexpected result for the free trade regime.     

Perceived violence climate: A new construct and its relationship to workplace physical violence and verbal aggression, and their potential consequences

Workplace accidents and violence are both potential sources of employee injuries that have been dealt with in entirely separate literatures. In this study we adapted the concept of safety climate from the accident/injury literature to violence in developing the concept of perceived violence climate. A scale was developed to assess perceived violence climate, including items about management attention, concern, and policies designed to keep employees safe from violence. Data were collected from a sample of 198 nurses from a US Hospital. Perceived violence climate was found to correlate significantly with both physical violence and verbal aggression experienced by the nurses, injury from violence, and perceptions of workplace danger. Furthermore, regression analyses showed that climate explained additional variance in psychological strain and perceptions of danger over experienced violence. These results have implications for interventions aimed at producing a good perceived violence climate in order to reduce the incidence of violence and aggression within an organization.     

Perceived violence climate: A new construct and its relationship to workplace physical violence and verbal aggression,and their potential consequences

Abstract

Workplace accidents and violence are both potential sources of employee injuries that have been dealt with in entirely separate literatures. In this study we adapted the concept of safety climate from the accident/injury literature to violence in developing the concept of perceived violence climate. A scale was developed to assess perceived violence climate, including items about management attention, concern, and policies designed to keep employees safe from violence. Data were collected from a sample of 198 nurses from a US Hospital. Perceived violence climate was found to correlate significantly with both physical violence and verbal aggression experienced by the nurses, injury from violence, and perceptions of workplace danger. Furthermore, regression analyses showed that climate explained additional variance in psychological strain and perceptions of danger over experienced violence. These results have implications for interventions aimed at producing a good perceived violence climate in order to reduce the incidence of violence and aggression within an organization.