中国NEET族对养老保障体系的冲击及影响

本文以新的人口学研究视角来研究NEET族和养老保障体系之间的关系,首先对中国NEET族数量进行了估计,然后是针对NEET族对中国养老保障体系中资金、观念、代际、自身、同代之间的影响和冲击的思考。     

试论自发性与诱导性人口转变

国外一些学者分析发展中国家计划生育政策在生育率变化中的作用时,划分了两种变化类型:一种是“发展性生育率转变”,另一种是“诱导性生育率转变”。美籍华人学者田心源教授在分析中国生育率转变时引用了这一概念,他认为中国的生育率转变属于比较成功的“诱导性生育率转变”。笔者赞同这种区分,并认为有必要把这种区分引入中国人口转变特征与机制的分析之中。由于一组社     

我国未来人口发展与兵源分析

<正> 谁来保卫2000年的中国?21世纪的长城由何人修建?这是目前国防教育中的一个重要话题。有人认为,现行生育政策将导致我国未来兵源匮缺;有的人认为,未来中国的兵源保障绝不成问题,究竟如何看待这一问题,本文试作一点粗浅的预测性分析。     

中国退休年龄改革的时机和方案选择

笔者认为确定退休年龄主要应该考虑养老保障和就业两个因素,其中前者是第一位的.从养老保障的角度看,中国退休年龄应该提高,但考虑到就业状况,目前并不是提高退休年龄的合适时机.通过对中国未来人口年龄结构的分析,笔者发现在21世纪10年代是提高中国退休年龄的合适时机,并以此为基础,提出了三个方案,通过比较笔者认为方案二是一个比较理想的方案.     

三大人口高峰与中国现代人口转变

21世纪中国将出现三大人口高峰 ,社会各界无不表示严重担忧。本文则与众不同 ,作者通过人口学分析 ,论证了三大人口高峰的到来是应值得喜庆之事 ,因为高峰到来之日就是中国人口步入良性循环轨道之时。本文还提出和确立了中国现代人口转变的理念 ,并认为三大高峰的到来 ,也是中国实现现代人口转变的标志     

21世纪初的计划生育工作探讨

本人通过对中国巨大的人口压力、计生工作的艰巨性和基层计生工作的薄弱环节等因素分析 ,认为21世纪初中国计生工作的主要任务是控制人口增长 ,稳定低生育率 ,并建议增加计生事业投入 ,加强基层计生干部队伍和服务阵地建设     

中国节育思想溯源

中国节育思想源远流长。但社会上对中国节育思想的认识至今仍存在颇多偏差,如认为中国节育思想的萌生晚于西方,认为迟至二十世纪初湖南陈范才第一次提出节育,认为是梁启超最早提倡晚婚,等等。笔者凭借较详实的历史资料,对中国节育思想的历史发展过程予以考察,指出中国节育思想早     

院舍照顾还是社区照顾?——中国养老模式的可能取向探讨

本文在对院舍照顾和社区照顾两种养老模式各自特点比较分析的基础上,对中国当前以院舍照顾为主的养老模式形成的历史与现实原因进行了分析,并对社区照顾的养老模式在中国的发展趋势及可能性进行了展望。文章认为,社区照顾的养老模式将因其经济性与人性化而具有巨大的生存空间。     

中国城市老人自杀问题分析

文章将在老龄化和城市变迁的背景下审视中国城市老人自杀的问题。笔者对中国自杀数据的整理和分析显示,中国城市老人在千禧年后的自杀率超过2000年之前的年均水平。以往的研究通常将久病厌世和家庭纠纷视为中国城市老人自杀的主要诱因。笔者却认为,相对剥夺感的大小可以强化或缓解这两个导致自杀的驱动力,所以应该在相关的分析中加以重视。为此,本文将集中分析医保的缺乏和城市开发对城市老人自杀问题的影响。     

中国是不是低度城镇化

围绕着中国城镇化的实际水平,本文综述了国内存在着的低度城镇化和非低度城镇化两种观点,并对他们的论证进行了分析.我们认为无论是改革前或改革后,中国的城镇化水平均处于低度城镇化状态.     

A Brute Indicator for a NEET Case: Genesis and Evolution of a Problematic Concept and Results from an Alternative Indicator

This article analyses the Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET ) concept and related indicators and its effects on both youth policies and the perception of young people. It is argued that a “weak version” of social exclusion is often used to explain the phenomenon. This leads both to defective policies (as a “victim blaming” approach tends to be developed instead of structural policies) and to the negative labelling of the NEET young people (as research and policies tend to focus on the individual’s deficits and thus associate them with negative values). An alternative indicator is proposed, aimed at reducing the heterogeneity of the situations the concept includes and focus on the core NEET group. This restricted concept centres on those individuals who do not seem to have any objective impediment to study or work. Figures are calculated for the Spanish region of Catalonia and results show a lower proportion of people in a NEET situation; that the NEET rates for young people and adults are similar; that the phenomenon is not new; and confirm that it is related to the risk of social exclusion. These results reinforce the need for an approach which is more sensitive to inequalities to improve our understanding of the NEET population and to avoid the stigmatisation of individuals, generations and countries.     

Some problems in determining the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate

Abstract The paper attempts to revive professional interest in a problem originally considered by Lee and Isbister and which has assumed added importance recently because of the increasing number of national family planning programmes that are being instituted, which require the determination of the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme in order to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate. The publication of subsequent papers on births averted by programmes, notably by Potter and Wolfers, each of whom had made some criticisms of the paper by Lee and Isbister, has tended to obscure the differences in the nature between the problem raised by Lee and Isbister, and that discussedby Potter or Wolfers. The paper tries to bring out these differences and points out one of the limitations of the estimates of births averted obtained by using either Potter's or Wolfers's methods, viz. the inability to determine the time period to which the birth reduction refers, thereby further complicating the issues involved in assessing the social and economic implications of births averted by a family planning programme. The paper also points out some of the unrecognizedtechnical considerations which arise in dealingwith the 'target-setting' problem raised by Lee and Isbister and suggeststhat stochasticmodel studies might offera clue for evolving practical methods for tackling this problem.     

The estimation of fertility rates from ratios of total to first births

In a previous paper a formula was derived from which the total fertility rate of a group of women could be estimated from the average number of live births to women in the reproductive period. In the present paper the argument is carried further and a method is given by which the total fertility rate may be estimated from the average number of children born to fertile women during the reproductive period. The method given in this paper may, under certain circumstances, have considerable advantages over the previous method suggested.     

Long-term Mortality Patterns in Chinese History: Evidence from a Recorded Clan Population

This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed.     

Evaluative comparisons of distributions of a social variable: Ordering methods

A distribution of a social variable over a population assigns a level or value of the variable to each individual in the population. The present paper continues a study of methods of ordering distributions of a social variable that was begun in an earlier paper. The earlier paper addressed issues of meaningfulness of evaluative comparisons and then examined several fundamental criteria for social evaluation. The present paper focuses on a variety of methods of ordering distributions. It begins with additive extensions of a Pareto principle and then looks at a number of distributional dominance relations, all of which are based on individuals' preferences. Ordering methods that may be only marginally related to individuals' preferences are discussed in the latter part of the paper.     

Current work on the social indicators system for the Federal Republic of Germany

The paper in hand deals with the construction of the SPES Indicators Tableau and its extensions and modifications which are carried out by current work. Advantages of time series regression analysis for social reporting as well as classifying social change are discussed. The paper ends with a short prospect on the publication in preparation which shall continue the social reporting of the SPES Indicators Tableau.     

Welfare measurement in labour supply models with nonlinear budget constraints

This paper is concerned with the measurement of individual welfare in labour supply models which allow for the impact of income taxation and income support schemes on labour supply decisions. The paper is motivated by the concern over the need to have measures which can be interpreted easily, which can be compared with net income, and which can be meaningfully aggregated. To illustrate the issues we use estimates of a discrete choice model of labour supply for United Kingdom lone mothers to compute alternative welfare measures which might be considered as having intuitive appeal to policy-makers. We compute welfare change based on these measures arising from a recent reform of the child support payments system. Received: 25 February 1997/Accepted: 12 March 1998     

Gender Segregation in the Spanish Labor Market: An Alternative Approach

The aim of this paper is to study occupational segregation by gender in Spain, which is a country where occupational segregation explains a large part of the gender wage gap. As opposed to previous studies, this paper measures not only overall segregation, but also the segregation of several population subgroups. For this purpose, this paper uses new measures recently proposed by Alonso-Villar and Del Río ( Local versus overall segregation measures, Documento de Traballo 0802, Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Universidade de Vigo, 2008). Moreover, two decompositions of their local segregation curves are proposed, which allows us to go further in the empirical analysis.     

Cohort Quantum as a Function of Time-dependent Period Quantum for Non-repeatable Events

The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period quantum measured at the time when the cohort reaches the mean age of the period schedule of age-specific rates, given that the period rate sum is a polynomial function of time. The paper takes up an issue which was unresolved in the article ‘Translation formulae for non-repeatable events’, which appeared in the July 1994 issue of Population Studies.     

Technological progress, income inequality, and fertility

This paper constructs an overlapping-generations model with two different types of technology: modern, which can be accessed only by the skilled, and traditional, which can be accessed by the unskilled. The model described in this paper shows that a rise in the wage premium for skilled workers caused by skill-biased technological changes explains the following key stylized facts: with economic development, the fraction of skilled people increases, the fertility rate declines, and income inequality rises and then falls. The model also explains the observed gradual rises in income inequality in developed countries.