人力资本投资与我国农村经济发展问题的探讨

人力资本投资对于我国农村经济发展具有十分重要的意义。然而,我国目前农村劳动者整体素质不高,农村人力资本的结构层次不明显,劳动力使用方向趋同。这种状况阻碍了我国农村经济的进一步发展。因此,要在思想上提高加快对农村人力资本投资重要性的认识。通过多渠道筹资增加对教育的投入,并要大力发展职业教育和技术教育,从而推动我国农村经济的发展。     

增加农民收入与建设农村小康社会养老模式的关系分析

增加农民收入是我国农村解决"三农"问题的重要方面,同时也是解决农村全面建设小康社会养老问题的关键。农民收入低,负担过重,人口老龄化程度又不断加深,给我国农村老年人养老问题的解决带来了巨大困难。在农村全面建设小康社会历史性机遇面前,我们应综合我国农村经济发展的实际情况,采取积极有效的对策,增加农民收入,为农村养老问题的解决奠定基础。     

财政扶持政策对西部地区农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响——基于自然实验的研究途径

本文将对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策的实施作为一个自然实验,应用微观经济计量方法分析了财政扶持政策对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响。研究结果表明,与2004年相比,2006年西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的概率增加了96.46%,说明针对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策作用效果显著。     

Gender Pay Gap and Employment Sector: Sources of Earnings Disparities in the United States, 1970–2010

Using data from the IPUMS-USA, the present research focuses on trends in the gender earnings gap in the United States between 1970 and 2010. The major goal of this article is to understand the sources of the convergence in men’s and women’s earnings in the public and private sectors as well as the stagnation of this trend in the new millennium. For this purpose, we delineate temporal changes in the role played by major sources of the gap. Several components are identified: the portion of the gap attributed to gender differences in human-capital resources; labor supply; sociodemographic attributes; occupational segregation; and the unexplained portion of the gap. The findings reveal a substantial reduction in the gross gender earnings gap in both sectors of the economy. Most of the decline is attributed to the reduction in the unexplained portion of the gap, implying a significant decline in economic discrimination against women. In contrast to discrimination, the role played by human capital and personal attributes in explaining the gender pay gap is relatively small in both sectors. Differences between the two sectors are not only in the size and pace of the reduction but also in the significance of the two major sources of the gap. Working hours have become the most important factor with respect to gender pay inequality in both sectors, although much more dominantly in the private sector. The declining gender segregation may explain the decreased impact of occupations on the gender pay gap in the private sector. In the public sector, by contrast, gender segregation still accounts for a substantial portion of the gap. The findings are discussed in light of the theoretical literature on sources of gender economic inequality and in light of the recent stagnation of the trend.     

The dynamics of the population sex ratio in India, 1971-96

This paper reconstructs the trend in the population sex ratio in India between 1971 ad 1996 from available information on changes in sex differentials in mortality in the country since the beginning of the century. It is estimated that, although the mortality of females relative to that of males in India has improved since 1968, the population sex ratio increased between 1971 and 1981, stayed constant between 1981 and 1991, and started to decrease only after 1991. This implies that the recorded decrease and increase in the periods 1971-81 and 1981-91 respectively were both spurious and were the results of undercounts of females in 1971 and 1991. Another implication of this finding is that, owing to the lagged effect of past mortality on current trends in the population sex ratio, this ratio is a bad proxy for use in the study of changes in differential mortality by sex.     

Relationships between nuptiality and fertility: a case study on the Spanish Province of Navarre, 1786-1991

In this article we analyse the influence of age at marriage and percentage of definitive celibacy on marital and total fertility over the past two hundred years in the Spanish province of Navarre. A considerable percentage of the fall in marital fertility in the first half of the twentieth century in rural Navarre was due to the postponement in women's age at marriage. On the other hand, Navarre offers many exceptions to the scenario often endorsed by researchers that sees marriage as the prime mechanism for regulating reproduction in traditional societies. While in the northern part of the province this mechanism did bring about the reduction of total fertility, in the southern part the fall was primarily a consequence of a fall in marital fertility.     

A fertility survey in the Maltese Islands

In order to determine whether fertility is declining in Malta, a sample was taken by the Maltese Central Statistical Office in mid-1955, along the line of the Family Census of 1946 in Great Britain. The size of the sample was 10,000, and the response very good. The sample shows no noticeable decline in fertility since the marriage cohorts of the beginning of the century. Some decline is noticeable int he fertility of the later durations of marriage, but completed family size remained more than 6 for the cohorts of the 1920's. This contrasts with the declining fertility shown by the enquiry in Great Britain, and the figure of 6 is in fact much greater than the completed families born to cohorts in Great Britain at the end of Queen Victoria's reign. Fertility seems in fact to be still rising in Malta for the first 18 months of marriage; and the first decade of marriage continues to show an average of 4 births. It seems therefore that the recent decline in the birth rate is to be attributed to changes in the populatino structure rather than in marital fertility. The continued high fertility implies a very rapid rise in population in the absence of emigration.     

Population, investment, and population quality]

The estimated cost of raising a child in China from birth to 16 years in 1978 was 6907 Yuan in cities, 4830 Yuan in townships, and 1630 Yuan in rural areas, which included both family costs and costs to the public. In 1985, this cost increased 2.79 times in cities, 0.46 times in townships, and 1.39 times in rural areas in real terms. It was also discovered from a survey in 1986 that in the rural areas, the family cost has increased and the cost to the public decreased since 1978. While in the cities, public cost increased and family cost decreased. In comparing 1985 with 1978, it was also discovered that living expenses were still a major part of the cost. But in the cities, the proportion of the cost attributable to living expenses decreased, while educational and medical expenses increased. In the rural areas, the reverse occurred. In terms of investment in education, the large proportion is the public input. IN 1979, family input was 16.5% in rural areas, 28.7% in cities, and 21.4% in townships. In 1985, family input in educational expenses was 10.4% in urban area and 27.4% in rural areas of Beijing. The small proportion of expenditures in education reflects the negligence of education on the part of both the State and families. Number of parents consider that it does not pay to have their children going to schools, and more education means a bigger loss. This is the reason for 7 million primary and middle school drop outs each year in recent years. In order to improve population quality, it is important to reverse this situation.     

Population fluctuations and natural mortalities of the pine-moth,Dendrolimus spectabilis

Summary Annual changes in the population of the pine-moth,Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler, were studied in Kashima district. The insect completes two generations in one year, and the adult emerges in early summer and again in autumn. The insect population showed fairly drastic fluctuations in the past years, and a conspicuous peak was recorded in three times, in 1950, 1955 and 1961. It was noted in each of those three years that a great number of adults of the summer generation emerged in autumn. The main reason for this great abundance of the insect population seemed to be high survival rate of the young larvae in summer. It was suggested that the climate in July had powerful influence upon the survival f thos e young larvae. The effects of natural enemies were usually the greatest on the egg population of the pine-moth in either generation. Much greater number of insects in the overwintering generation was destroyed by parasites and diseases than in the summer generation. Finally, a rapid increase of the insect population in autumn was considered to be caused by a combined effect of climatic conditions and of natural enemies.     

Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.     

我国私营家族企业人力资源管理存在的问题与对策研究

我国私营家族企业已成为社会主义建设事业的重要力量。但是私营家族企业在发展中也出现了一些问题,特别是在人力资源管理上存在诸多的误区,这已成为私营家族企业进一步发展的阻碍。私营家族企业任人唯亲的现象较严重,忽视对企业人力资源的职业培训教育,缺少有效的激励机制和"以人为本"的优秀企业文化,私营家族企业的员工保障制度也不健全。因此要积极制定解决我国私营家族企业人力资源管理缺陷的对策,从而促使私营家族企业健康发展。     

Sun Belt Rising: Regional Population Change and the Decline in Black Residential Segregation, 1970–2009

The goal of this study is to examine the extent to which population shifts over the post–Great Migration period and divergent trends in segregation across regions contributed to the overall decline in black segregation in the United States in recent decades. Using data from the 1970 to 2000 decennial censuses and the 2005–2009 American Community Survey (ACS), our analysis indicates that black dissimilarity and isolation declined more in the South and West than in the Northeast and Midwest. Nevertheless, regional population shifts account for only a modest amount (8 % to 12 %) of the decline in black-white segregation over the period and for an even smaller proportion of the decline in black-nonblack segregation, in part because the largest declines in segregation occurred in the West while the region with the largest relative increase in the black population was the South. Using more refined census divisions rather than census regions provided some additional explanatory power (shifts across divisions explained 15 %–16 % of the decline in black-white segregation): divisions with larger gains in their share of the black population tended to have larger declines in black segregation. Overall, although the effect of the regional redistribution of the black population on declines in segregation was significant, of even greater importance were other causes of substantial declines in segregation in a wide array of metropolitan areas across the country, and especially in the West, over the past 40 years.     

中日两国人口老龄化再比较研究

中日两国不仅人口年龄结构发展变化趋势基本相同,而且影响年龄结构发展变化的社会经济因素非常相似。因此,日本经历过的人口老龄化挑战,将在中国陆续出现,日本当年采取的应付老龄化对策,将对中国有借鉴意义。     

人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。     

Refining Population Health Comparisons: A Multidimensional First Order Dominance Approach

Protest parties are on the rise in several European countries. This development is commonly attributed to a growing dissatisfaction with life and associated with declining quality of life in modern society of the lowest social strata. This explanation is tested in a cross-sectional analysis of voting and life-satisfaction in 63 districts of the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, where the share of protest voters increased from 10 % in 1994 to 31 % in 2009. Contrary to this explanation protest voting appeared not to be the most frequent in the least happy districts of Rotterdam, but in the medium happy segment. Also divergent from this explanation was that average happiness in city districts is largely independent of local living conditions, but is rather a matter of personal vulnerability in terms of education, income and health. These results fit alternative explanations in terms of middle class status anxiety.     

Sex Differentials in Mortality in the Soviet Union: Regional Differences in Length of Working Life in Comparative Perspective

In this paper we take a different approach from other authors to the study of differences between the mortality of the two sexes in the USSR. First, we use measures of mortality that are not sensitive to the most common types of error in data and that reflect experience in an age range that is important from a policy perspective: the working ages. Secondly, we measure variation in mortality between regions of the USSR. Thirdly, we compare these regional mortality trends with experience in 33 developed countries. The sex differential in mortality in the USSR is an amalgam of very different regional patterns. Its size and rate of change are more extreme in the USSR than in other countries, and are mainly due to the poor and rapidly worsening mortality of men in the Russian Republic. But the widening sex differentials and increasing mortality of men in the older working ages in Soviet regions are similar to trends in many other developed countries.     

Differentials in the femininity ratio among centenarians: variations between northern and southern Italy from 1870

Significant differentials have been observed between Italian regions in the distribution of centenarians by sex, from two women per man in the south to over eight in certain regions in the north. In order to explain these differentials we studied the evolution of the femininity ratio (FR), using a longitudinal approach to follow the ageing process in two cohorts, and making use of nearly all the statistical data available since the time of the Unification of Italy in 1870. Significant differentials in the FR observed at the age of 100 are mainly due to mortality differentials among men over the age of 60. The high mortality of men in the north and their low mortality in the south are the main explanations of why the FRs are higher in the north and lower in the south. Mortality differentials among women have only a marginal impact.     

The role of vole populations in prevalence of the parasite (Echinococcus multilocularis) in foxes

Effects of population fluctuation of the gray-sided vole(Clethrionomys rufocanus) on the prevalence (infection rates) of the parasiteEchinococcus multilocularis in red fox(Vulpes vulpes) populations was investigated from 1985 to 1992 in eastern Hokkaido (Abashiri, Nemuro, and Kushiro area), Japan. This parasite needs two hosts to complete its life cycle; the gray-sided vole as its intermediate host and the red fox as its final host. We found that: (1) Infection rates in foxes depended on the current-year abundance of voles in all three study areas, particularly in Abashiri. (2) In addition to this direct density-dependence, delayed density-dependence between the infection rate and the prior-year abundance of voles was detected in Nemuro and in Kushiro. (3) The regional differences in density-dependence pattern were related to regional differences in the winter food habits of red foxes: in Abashiri the proportion of voles in the fox’s diet greatly decreases in winter, while the proportion remains high in winter in Nemuro and in Kushiro, probably because of shallower snowpack. These results suggest that infection rates in foxes in Abashiri were less influenced by the prior-year prevalence, since the infection cycle might be interrupted in winter, when voles became less important in fox’s diet. In contrast, the state of the prevalence may carry over from year to year in Nemuro and in Kushiro, because red foxes continue to eat a considerable amount of voles throughout year. The regionally contrasted results for the relationship between infection rate in foxes and vole abundance were parallel to the regional difference in fluctuation pattern of vole populations, which are highly variable in Abashiri area, but less variable in Kushiro-Nemuro area. Drastic change in vole populations appears to affect the host-parasite system.     

AGING,RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY IN A MODEL OF INTEREST GROUPS

The assessment of the degree of genetic variation in a natural population, and the nature of that variation, is of central importance in both theoretical and applied population studies. Two “variance” results in population genetics theory are presented. For the first, expressions are found for the expected difference in the estimates of genetic variation in a population obtained by two investigators sampling from the same population in the same generation. The second result concerns the question of whether the degree of genetic variation in a population is best estimated by using the number of alleles observed in a sample of genes or by the number of polymorphic sites observed in the sample. For some combinations of the actual degree of variation and the sample size the former is preferred while for other combinations the latter is preferred. The reason for this is discussed.     

基于多样性指数的云南省民族人口发展态势分析

文章基于1990、2000、2010年人口数据对云南省县域尺度的民族多样性指数及其变异指数、民族贡献率对云南省民族人口发展态势作了分析。在民族多样性层面上,云南省具有较高的民族多样性指数,在空间上呈现先由东北部向中部上升再向南、北部上升的趋势,反映了民族人口增长的“东北部-中部-南、北部”差异趋势;基于三个截面数据民族多样性变异指数的分析表明民族多样性指数变化与区域内原本的多样性指数基础有极强的关联,云南省民族多样性在总体上呈上升趋势的同时区域间民族多样性差距呈减小趋势,区域间民族人口差距缩小;基于民族多样性民族贡献率的分析表明汉族对民族多样性的贡献集中于东部、东北部、西部地区以及东南部局部地区,少数民族对民族多样性贡献率较高的区域呈现了多民族贡献率显著的特征,不同民族人口增长情况存在明显区域分异特征。