“How powerful is demography? The serendipity theorem revisited” comment on De la Croix et al. (2012)

Samuelson’s (Int Econ Rev 16(3):531-538, 1975) serendipity theorem states that the “goldenest golden rule” steady-state equilibrium can be obtained by a competitive two-period overlapping generation economy with capital accumulation, provided that the optimal growth rate prevails. De la Croix et al. (J Popul Econ 25:899-922, 2012) extended the scope of the theorem by showing that it also holds for risky lifetime. With this note, we introduce medical expenditure as a determinant of the probability of surviving to old age to prove the theorem. The original as well as all extended versions of the serendipity theorem, however, fail to prove that second-order conditions are satisfied in general. Still, unlike De la Croix et al. (J Popul Econ 25:899-922, 2012), we can exclude the existence of corner solutions where the probability of reaching old age is zero or one. The zero survival probability case becomes irrelevant if the option to randomize between death and life utility is taken into account. Survival with certainty is ruled out if the marginal cost of survival is increasing. Hence, the optimal survival probability represents an interior solution. Furthermore, we show for the optimal survival probability that the value of a statistical life is positive and equal to its marginal cost.     

School-Related Social Support and Adolescents’ School-Related Subjective Well-Being: The Mediating Role of Basic Psychological Needs Satisfaction at School

Grounded in Basic Psychological Needs Theory (BPNT; Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum, New York, 1985; Psychol Inq 11(4):227–268. doi: 10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01, 2000; Ryan and Deci in Am Psychol 55(1):68–78. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.68, 2000), the present study mainly aimed to (1) test a theoretically-based model proposing that the satisfaction of three basic psychological needs at school mediates the relationship between school-related social support (i.e., teacher support and classmate support) and school-related subjective well-being and (2) explore the invariance of the model across gender and age groups. A total of 1476 Chinese adolescents (males = 712; early adolescents = 676; Mage = 15.40) completed a multi-measure questionnaire tapping the targeted variables. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the hypotheses. Results indicated that school-related social support (i.e., teacher support and classmate support) related statistically significantly to adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. Furthermore, a multiple-mediators analysis indicated that autonomy, competence and relatedness needs satisfaction at school partially mediated the relation between teacher support and school-related subjective well-being, and fully mediated the relation between classmate support and school-related subjective well-being. Lastly, the results supported partial invariance of the model with respect to gender and age groups. Limitations of the study are considered and applied considerations to improve adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being are discussed.     

Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade,Florida

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) indicate increasing, and imminent, risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding and hurricane storm surge. Building on recent research related to the potential demographic impacts of such changes (Hauer et al. 2016, in Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806, 2017; Neumann et al. 2015; Curtis and Schneider in Popul Environ 33:28–54, 2011), localized flooding projections in the Miami Beach area (Wdowinski et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 126:1–8, 2016) and projected economic losses associated with this rise in projected SLR (Fu et al. Ocean Coast Manag 133:11–17, 2016); this research investigates the accrued current cost, in terms of real-estate dollars lost, due to recurrent tidal flooding and projected increases of flooding in Miami-Dade County. Most directly related to this line of research, Keenan et al. (2018) have recently produced results indicating that Climate Gentrification is taking place in Miami, FL with higher elevations in flood prone areas appreciating at a higher rate. In that vein of thinking, we seek to answer a question posed by such research: What is the actual accrued loss to sea-level rise over the recent past? To answer this question, we replicate well-documented estimation methods by combining publicly available sea-level rise projections, tide gauge trends, and property lot elevation data to identify areas regularly at risk of flooding. Combining recent patterns of flooding inundation with future forecasts, we find that properties projected to be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.08 each year on each square foot of living area, and properties near roads that will be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.71 each year on each square foot of living area. These effects total over $465 million in lost real-estate market value between 2005 and 2016 in the Miami-Dade area.     

Aspirations of Migrants and Returns to Human Capital Investment

Although there is adequate literature on the topic of state-employer collusion, this literature is barely underpinned in any theoretical framework. This article attempts to fill this theoretical lacuna by revisiting Gouldner’s (Patterns of industrial bureaucracy: a case study of modern factory administration, The Free Press, New York, 1954a) pioneering theoretical framework on patterns of bureaucracy, and extends his concept of mock bureaucracy to develop a new concept called ‘mock state bureaucracy’ to illustrate state-employer collusion in controlling workers in plants in developing third world economies. The article revisits and extends Gouldner’s (1954a) unit of analysis from the ‘firm’ level to the ‘state’ level and argues that the new concept mock state bureaucracy provides a better illustration of the state-employer collusion. The article argues that both ‘state’ and ‘employer’ are important units of analysis and they should be brought back to the centre stage of any discourse on employment relations of developing countries.     

Towards a Theory of Medium Term Life Satisfaction: Similar Results for Australia,Britain and Germany

We analyse the Life Satisfaction trajectories of respondents in three long-running, national panel surveys: the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics Australia Survey (HILDA), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Previous research has shown that substantial minorities of respondents in all three countries recorded long term changes in LS (Fujita and Diener in J Personal Soc Psychol 88:158–64, 2005; Headey in Soc Indic Res 76:312–317, 2006; Headey et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:17922–7926, 2010; Headey et al. Soc Indic Res 112:725–48, 2013). In a recent SIR paper based on the German data (Headey and Muffels in Soc Indic Res, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-1146-8), we showed graphs of LS trajectories which suggested—and subsequent statistical analysis confirmed—that respondents typically spend multiple consecutive years above and, in other periods, below their own long term mean level of LS. Here we extend the analysis to Australia and Britain, showing that results replicate in two more Western countries. It appears that most people go through relatively happy periods of life, and relatively unhappy periods. The evidence runs counter to set-point theory which views adult LS as stable, except for short term fluctuations due to life events. In the second half of the paper we try to contribute to a theory of medium term life satisfaction. We estimate structural equation models with two-way causation between LS and variables usually treated as causes of LS, including health, social support, frequency of social activities, and satisfaction with one’s work, partner and family life. In all three countries we find that there are positive feedback loops between these variables and LS, which partly account for extended periods of high or low LS. The two-way causation models are based on a modified concept of ‘Granger-causation’ (Granger in Econometrica 37(3):424–38, 1969). The main intuition behind Granger-causation is that if x can be shown to be statistically significantly related to y in a model which includes multiple lags of y, then it can be inferred that x is one cause of y.     

Inclusiveness as Construction of Open Identity: How Social Relationships Affect Attitudes Towards Immigrants in European Societies

Studies of individual and group-level sources of prejudice have contributed to today’s greater understanding of the emergence of prejudice and discriminatory attitudes towards immigrants. Yet, scholars have claimed that future research should investigate institutional and socio-political macro-level factors affecting individuals’ attitudes towards outsiders (Ceobanu and Escandell in Ann Rev Sociol 36:309–328, 2010). To contribute to filling this knowledge gap, this article goes across levels of analysis and theories to provide insights about group-level sources influencing attitudes towards immigrants. These sources are taken into account as both institutional and social factors involved in processes of national identity constructions. To this purpose, this work combines Blumer’s perspective (Pac Sociol Rev 1:3–7, 1958) with both the distinction Weber (Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Tübingen, Mohr, 1922) made between open and closed social relationships and some other theoretical contributions that emerged in the field. The findings of a multilevel analysis confirm that, whereby inclusive socio-political factors are involved in the processes of countries’ identity constructions, individuals show more positive attitudes towards immigrants. In addition, in inclusive countries, a society’s high regard for its own traditions and customs influences individual members to appreciate other cultures and show positive dispositions towards outsiders.     

On human capital formation with exit options: comment and new results

Katz and Rapoport (2005) conclude that with linear production technology and the possibility of unilateral migration, region-specific shocks may increase the average level of education. Previously, Poutvaara (2000) derived a corresponding result with Cobb–Douglas technology and migration which may go in both directions. This paper extends the analysis to all strictly concave production functions, and shows how the effect of the region-specific shocks depends on the shape of the production function. Also, the paper establishes when the presence of exit option increases and when it reduces investment in education. The results are robust to allowing for migration costs.     

Work-Life Conflict and Social Inequality in Western Europe

Recent debates on time-use suggest that there is an inverse relationship between time poverty and income poverty (Aguiar and Hurst in Q J Econ C(3):969–1006, 2007), with Hammermesh and Lee (Rev Econ Stat 89(2):374–383, 2007) suggesting much time poverty is ‘yuppie kvetch’ or ‘complaining’. Gershuny (Soc Res Int Q Soc Sci 72(2):287–314, 2005) argues that busyness is the ‘badge of honour’: being busy is now a positive, privileged position and it is high status people who work long hours and feel busy. Is this also true of work-life conflict? This paper explores the relationship between work-life tension and social inequality, as measured by social class, drawing on evidence from the European Social Survey. To what extent is work-life conflict a problem of the (comparatively) rich and privileged professional/managerial classes, and is this true across European countries? The countries selected offer a range of institutional and policy configurations to maximise variation. Using regression modelling of an index of subjective work-life conflict, we find that in all the countries under study, work-life conflict is higher among professionals than non-professionals. Part of this is explained by the fact that professionals work longer hours and experience more work pressure than other social classes, though the effect remains even after accounting for these factors. While levels of work-life conflict vary across the countries studied, country variation in class differences is modest. We consider other explanations of why professionals report higher work-life conflict and the implications of our findings for debates on social inequality.     

A Theory of Life Satisfaction Dynamics: Stability,Change and Volatility in 25-Year Life Trajectories in Germany

An adequate theory of life satisfaction (LS) needs to take account of both factors that tend to stabilise LS and those that change it. The most widely accepted theory in the recent past—set-point theory—focussed solely on stability (Brickman and Campbell, in: Appley (ed) Adaptation level theory, Academic Press, New York, pp 287–302, 1971; Lykken and Tellegen in Psychol Sci 7:186–189, 1996). That theory is now regarded as inadequate by most researchers, given that national panel surveys in several Western countries show that substantial minorities of respondents have recorded large, long term changes in LS (Sheldon and Lucas in The stability of happiness, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2014). In this paper we set out a preliminary revised theory, based mainly on analysis of the LS trajectories of the 2473 respondents in the German Socio-Economic Panel who reported their LS for 25 consecutive years in 1990–2014. The theory entails three sets of propositions in which we attempt to account for stability, change and also volatility. First, it is proposed that stability is primarily due to stable personality traits, and also to parental influence on LS. The second set of propositions indicates that medium and long term changes are due to differences and changes in personal values/life priorities and behavioural choices. Differences in the priority given to pro-social values, family values and materialistic values affect LS, as do behavioural choices relating to one’s partner, physical exercise, social participation and networks, church attendance, and the balance between work and leisure. Medium term change is reinforced by two-way causation—positive feedback loops—between values, behavioural choices and LS. The third set of propositions breaks new ground in seeking to explain inter-individual differences in the volatility/variability of LS over time; why some individuals display high volatility and others low, even though their mean level of LS may change little over 25 years.     

Differential Functioning of the Chinese Version of Beck Depression Inventory-II in Adolescent Gender Groups: Use of a Multiple-Group Mean and Covariance Structure Model

The objectives of this study were (a) to investigate whether items of the Chinese version of Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II-C; Chinese Behavioral Science Corporation in Manual for the Beck Depression Inventory-II [in Chinese]. The Chinese Behavioral Science Corporation, Taiwan, 2000) exhibited DIF across adolescent gender groups, in addition to exploring meaningful patterns of item content by gender and (b) to methodologically show how detecting DIF can be done by utilizing a well-known factor-analysis method—a multi-group confirmatory factor analysis with mean and covariance structure (MACS; Sörbom in Br J Math Stat Psychol 27: 229–239, 1974; Sörbom in Structural equation models with structured means. North Holland, Amsterdam, pp 183–195, 1982). Two samples composed of 1,344 adolescent males and 1,578 adolescent females were analyzed. One nonuniform DIF item and seven uniform DIF items were identified across gender groups. The effects of DIF were inconsequential on the raw scores but significant on the latent mean. In regard to the patterns of item content by gender, the results have found that females were relatively more likely to endorse the item contents reflecting negative self-evaluation (item 7: self-dislike), emotional vulnerability (item 9: suicidal wishes; item 10: crying) and irritation (item 17); whereas males were relatively more likely to endorse the item contents associated with frustration (item 3: failure), moodiness (item 4: loss of pleasure) and somatic habits (item 16: sleep pattern). Also, the universal and culturally specific influences on DIF items across gender groups were suspected.     

Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey

In recent years, policy makers and scientists have become interested in the dynamic links between migration and environmental change (Döös in Global Environ Change 7(1):41–61, 1997; Adger et al. in Living with Environmental Change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in Vietnam, 2001; Gunderson and Holling in Panarchy—understanding transformations in systems of humans and nature, Island Press, Washington, DC, Gunderson and Holling 2002; Scoones et al. in Dynamic systems and the challenge of sustainability, 2007; Galaz et al. in Ecosystems under pressure. A policy brief for the International Commission on Climate Change and Development, 2008). Recently, scoping activities have emerged to produce empirical observations about the role of environmental change in decisions about human mobility, including a range of movements from voluntary to forced migration and displacement. One notable recent attempt to contribute to the base of knowledge about the links between environmental change and migration has been the European Commission co-sponsored the Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios (EACH-FOR) project. The EACH-FOR project was created to assess the impact of environmental change on migration at the local, national, regional and international level. This paper shares the methods and fieldwork experiences of a first-time, multicontinent survey of environmental change and migration from the research project supported by the European Commission: Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR, Contract Number 044468, http://www.each-for.eu). This paper has three purposes. First, the authors explore issues related to how EACH-FOR designed its methodological approach for the first global survey of environmental change and migration. The paper then describes how the project attempted to create a method that would produce comparable results in a challenging context of multiple scientific challenges and trade-offs for research design. The second purpose of this paper is to examine how field researchers implemented and used this methodology in the EACH-FOR project. This paper takes a closer look at the fieldwork approach applied in investigating the 23 EACH-FOR project case studies. These case studies presented diverse local conditions and social contexts and different types of environmental changes. The paper discusses some of the practical considerations and shortcomings of the method in practice and illustrates how local researchers from selected case studies managed the challenges of their complex assignment. The third purpose of this paper is to explore lessons learned from the initial fieldwork experience and fruitful directions for future research.     

Marginal Utility and Economic Development: Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Aspirations and Subjective Well-Being Among Chinese Employees

The post-1979 economic reforms have led to impressive economic growth in China both in terms of gross domestic product and individual income. Individual well-being, however, has not increased on par with the economy (Brockmann et al. in J Happiness Stud 10(4):387–405, 2009; Easterlin et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(25):9775–9780, 2012). In the current series of studies, traditional and multilevel regression models are applied to examine the relationship between income and employee well-being. Results suggest a curvilinear relationship between income and satisfaction (both with one’s job and one’s income), supporting a diminishing marginal utility effect. Additionally, confirming a central postulate of Goal Contents Theory (GCT), individuals who espoused the importance of income (an extrinsic motive) were less satisfied with income itself. Further examining the application of GCT in a Chinese context, results suggest individuals who value extrinsic motives (i.e., money, possessions, fame) exhibit lower levels of job satisfaction, life satisfaction, and feelings of accomplishment. Finally, there is a significant multilevel effect such that between-city levels of health have a significant positive relationship with life satisfaction. These results offer organizational and policy implications related to the interaction between economic prosperity and human development.     

Identity,Belonging and Intentions to Leave of First and 1.5 Generation FSU Immigrants in Israel

Recent studies examining immigrant intentions to leave the host country have focused on return migration to the origin country (De Haas and Fokkema in Demogr Res 25:755–782, 2011; De Haas et al. in J Int Migr Integr 16(2):415–429, 2015). The current study examines immigrant intentions to leave the host country, but not necessarily to return to the homeland. The predictive model, which focuses on immigrant subjective identity, was tested through a survey of 338 first and 1.5 generation Former Soviet Union (FSU) immigrants in Israel, who applied to a prominent NGO to obtain proof of their Jewishness. These individuals are from the largest recent immigrant group in Israel, and are highly represented among the young adult (aged 25–40) immigrants leaving Israel. The findings indicate that contrary to our expectations, Israeli local identity did not have a significant effect on the immigrants’ intentions to leave Israel. By contrast, Jewish identity and level of religiosity did play a significant role in attenuating the immigrant’s tendency to leave. This paper highlights the complex relationship between ethnic identities and religiosity among immigrants in general, and in Israel in particular.     

Cognitive Disparities: The Impact of the Great Depression and Cumulative Inequality on Later-Life Cognitive Function

Population aging has driven a spate of recent research on later-life cognitive function. Greater longevity increases the lifetime risk of memory diseases that compromise the cognitive abilities vital to well-being. Alzheimer’s disease, thought to be the most common underlying pathology for elders’ cognitive dysfunction (Willis and Hakim 2013), is already the sixth leading cause of death in the United States (Alzheimer’s Association 2016). Understanding social determinants of pathological cognitive decline is key to crafting interventions, but evidence is inconclusive for how social factors interact over the life course to affect cognitive function. I study whether early-life exposure to the Great Depression is directly associated with later-life cognitive function, influences risky behaviors over the life course, and/or accumulates with other life-course disadvantages. Using growth curve models to analyze the Health and Retirement Study, I find that early-life exposure to the Great Depression is associated with fluid cognition, controlling for intervening factors—evidence for a critical period model. I find little support for a social trajectory model. Disadvantage accumulates over the life course to predict worse cognitive function, providing strong evidence for a cumulative inequality model.     

Social Indicators Movement and Human Agency: Comment on Land and Michalos

This paper offers a critical comment on Land and Michalos (Soc Indic Res, 2017) and suggests a relay perspective to see the past achievements and future directions in the social indicators movement. In accordance with Land and Michalos, it suggests bringing the issue of human agency to the foreground, and offers an example using an index of the mother’s wellbeing for global comparison.     

World population stabilisation through Smithian increasing returns to labour: an update

In light of classical political economists’ ideas (especially Smith and Malthus) and more recent theory of demographic transition, Foley (Econ Lett 68:309–317, 2000) constructed a simple integrated population model, which is then used as an alternative tool to project the stabilising level of world population and income level associated with it. This paper is an update of this line of research using more recent empirical evidence. We find the world still exhibits a strong pattern of Smithian increasing returns to scale and most countries’ populations have been stabilising along a convex income–fertility schedule. Our projections suggest that the world population will stabilise at 11.4 billion with per capita income around $12,595 in constant 2005 USD. Unfortunately, the process of world population stabilisation tends to be accompanied with growing global income equality.     

Considering the Extremely Poor: Multidimensional Poverty Measurement for Germany

This paper applies the Alkire and Foster (J Public Econ 95:476–487, 2011) index of multidimensional poverty to German data. This is done with respect to the politically most important dimensions of poverty mentioned in the German Federal Government’s report on poverty and wealth. Additionally, a modification of the identification step of the Alkire–Foster index is proposed to guarantee that individuals, who are extremely poor in only few dimensions, are not omitted by the index.     

Socioeconomic Inequality and Life Satisfaction in Late Childhood and Adolescence: A Moderated Mediation Model

An increasing number of studies have established an association between socioeconomic inequality and life satisfaction, but the underlying mediating and moderating mechanisms of this association have not been fully identified. The present study investigated the effect of family socioeconomic status (SES) on life satisfaction in late childhood and adolescence; examined the mediating effect of optimism in the association between family SES and life satisfaction; and tested whether this mediating process varied across late childhood and adolescence. A sample of 552 Chinese children in late childhood (M _age = 10.73 years, SD = 0.96) and 637 Chinese adolescents (M _age = 14.71 years, SD = 1.60) was recruited to complete questionnaires regarding family SES, optimism, and life satisfaction. Results indicated that socioeconomic inequality was associated with life satisfaction in Chinese children and adolescents. Moreover, optimism partially mediated the relation between family SES and life satisfaction, and developmental period moderated this mediation effect. Specifically, the mediation effect was found in adolescence, but not in late childhood, indicating an adolescent-emergent model (Chen et al. in Psychol Bull 128(2):295–329, 2002; in Soc Sci Med 62(9):2161–2170, 2006). The meaning and implications of socioeconomic inequality in different development periods and applied considerations to improve life satisfaction in late childhood and adolescence are discussed.     

Social Networks,Social Cohesion,and Later-Life Health

Our study contributes to the literature acknowledging the joint role of social networks and social cohesion in shaping individual’s health, focusing on the older population aged 50 and over. Exploiting rich ego-centered social network data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and following the conceptual model of social integration and health proposed by Berkman et al. (Soc Sci Med 51:843–857. doi:10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00065-4, 2000), we estimate multilevel models of self-reported and observer-measured later-life health outcomes. These models simultaneously account for (a) characteristics of 39,551 respondents’ personal social networks and (b) a measure of social cohesion—namely, participation in social organizations—across 57 Continental European regions, clustered in 14 countries. We find significant associations between individuals’ health and various social network characteristics (size, support, quality) as well as social cohesion. Moreover, cross-level interaction effects suggest that the social-network-health nexus is contextually bound. We conclude with a discussion of limitations and perspectives for future research.