An Individual Relative Deprivation Index and Its Curve Considering Income Scope

China is characterized by a low fertility intention, a strong preference for sons, as well as a stringent birth control policy. In this study, we used data from a Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey of 2101 questionnaires conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, and event history analysis methods to examine the effect of fertility intention and preference for sons on the probability of having a second child. The results not only validate the correlation of fertility intention with having a second child empirically, even in the low fertility intention and stringent birth control context of China, but also show that women with a preference for sons were less likely to have a second child. Women with son preference turn to sex-selective abortion to ensure that their first child is a son, thus reducing the likelihood of a second child and decreasing the fertility rate. Our findings also shed light on China’s potential fertility policy adjustment.     

The Impact of State Abortion Policies on Teen Pregnancy Rates

The availability of abortion provides insurance against unwanted pregnancies since abortion is the only birth control method which allows women to avoid an unwanted birth once they are pregnant. Restrictive state abortion policies, which increase the cost of obtaining an abortion, may increase women’s incentive to alter their pregnancy avoidance behavior, thereby reducing the likelihood of unwanted pregnancies. This study, using state-level data for the years 1982, 1992, and 2000, examines the impact of restrictive state abortion laws on teen pregnancy rates. The empirical results indicate that the price of an abortion, Medicaid funding restrictions, and informed consent laws reduce teen, minor teen and non-minor teen pregnancy rates. The empirical results suggest that these abortion policy restrictions affect the unprotected sexual activity of teens resulting in fewer unwanted teen pregnancies.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

Does It Matter What She Wants? The Role of Individual Preferences Against Unmarried Motherhood in Young Women’s Likelihood of a Nonmarital First Birth

Most young people in the United States express the desire to marry. Norms at all socioeconomic levels posit marriage as the optimal context for childbearing. At the same time, nonmarital fertility accounts for approximately 40 % of U.S. births, experienced disproportionately by women with educational attainment less than a bachelor’s degree. Research has shown that women’s intentions for the number and timing of children and couples’ intent to marry are strong predictors of realized fertility and marriage. The present study investigates whether U.S. young women’s preferences about nonmarital fertility, as stated before childbearing begins, predict their likelihood of having a nonmarital first birth. I track marriage and fertility histories through ages 24–30 of women asked at ages 11–16 whether they would consider unmarried childbearing. One-quarter of women who responded “no” in fact had a nonmarital birth by age 24–30. The ability of women and their partners to access material resources in adulthood were, as expected, the strongest predictors of the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Nonetheless, I find that women who said they would not consider nonmarital childbearing had substantially higher hazards of fertility postponement and especially of marital fertility, even after controlling for race/ethnicity, mother’s educational attainment, family of origin intactness, self-efficacy and planning ability, perceived future prospects, and markers of own educational attainment and work experience into early adulthood.     

Abortion and contraception in the Korean fertility transition

Abstract In this paper the relationship between the use of abortion and contraception among married women in a society experiencing uronid decline in fertility is analysed using data from the Korean National Fertility Survey of 1974. The level and pattern of abortion before and after modern contraceptives became widely available are described, and the implications of the changing patterns of abortion and contraception are discussed.     

The dependent tax exemption,abortion availability,and US fertility rates

The impact of the personal income tax dependent exemption, abortion availability, and other factors on fertility rates is analyzed. US time series data for 1915–88 are used in the empirical model. The results indicate that greater abortion availability in the USA is associated with lower fertility. A higher value of the dependent exemption generally is associated with higher fertility, but the magnitude and significance of the effect is sensitive to specification choice. The results suggest that restricting abortion availability in the USA will increase the fertility rate, but a change in the tax value of the dependent exemption will have a less predictable impact on fertility.     

Does Contraceptive Use Always Reduce Breast-feeding?

Previous studies suggest that access to modern contraceptives can reduce breast-feeding rates because women who had been using breast-feeding to avoid pregnancy substitute away from it. This article shows that contraceptive use can also have a positive effect on breast-feeding. A mother often weans a child if she becomes pregnant again, which can occur sooner than desired if she lacks access to contraceptives. Thus, by enabling longer birth spacing and preventing unwanted pregnancies, contraceptive use allows for a longer duration of breast-feeding. This positive effect should primarily affect infants who are past the first few months of life because their mothers are more fecund then, and the negative effect should affect infants who are very young because the contraceptive property of breast-feeding is strongest then. I test for these dual effects using Demographic and Health Survey data for Indonesia. I find evidence of the positive birth-spacing effect: contraceptive use increases the likelihood that children continue to be breast-fed past age 1. There is also suggestive evidence of a negative substitution effect among infants age 3 months and younger.     

Son preference and the one child policy in China: 1979–1988

Using data from the Two-Per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this research analyzes how son preference, a deep-rooted cultural norm for more than two thousand years, affects compliance with China's one child population policy for women at risk during the period of 1979 to 1988. Four events after the first live birth are used to evaluate compliance with the policy: (1) certificate acceptance (an indicator of future fertility intention); (2) the use of contraceptives (an indicator of intention to prevent a subsequent pregnancy); (3) the occurrence of a pregnancy subsequent to the first live birth (a potential violation of the one child policy), and (4) among those pregnant, the likelihood of an abortion (an indicator of compliance by preventing a second live birth). It is found that son preference is still prevalent in China. Although the effect of son preference is not the most important, urbanization, education, and occupation have not fundamentally changed its influence on women's compliance. In addition, the effect of son preference on the compliance is not altered by government control. Preference for sons continues to be a factor discouraging the compliance with the one child policy.This article is based on a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 1–4 April 1993, Cincinnati, OH, USA.     

Abortion: the continuing controversy

While most countries of the world practice abortion, government policy, medical opinion, private opinion and actual practice vary widely. Although mortality from legal abortions is quite low, complications rise sharply after 12 gestational weeks. No conclusive proof shows adverse postabortion psychological effects. Romania, Japan and the Soviet Union experienced declining birth rates when abortion was made available and New York City saw a decline in illegitimacy of approximately 12% from 1970 to 1971. Throughout the world abortion laws vary from restrictive to moderate to permissive. Where laws are restrictive, as in France and Latin America, illegal abortions are estimated in the millions. The controversy over abortion centers around the arguments of what constitutes a human life, and the rights of the fetus versus the right of a woman to control her reproductive life. A review of state abortion laws as of August 1972 shows pressure on state legislatures to change existing laws. The future of abortion depends upon technological advances in fertility control, development of substitutes like menstral extraction, prostaglandins and reversible sterilization. Development of these techniques will take time. At present only through education and improved delivery of contraceptives can dependence on abortion as a method of fertility control be eased. Citizen education in the United States, both sex education and education for responsbile parenthood, is in a poor state according to the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. If recourse to abortion is to be moderated, it is the next generation of parents who will have to be educated.     

A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption

Married couples with children appear to be less likely to end their marriages than childless couples, especially when the children are young. Although this suggests that children affect the chances that their parents will divorce, the process may not be so simple: the chances that the marriage will last also may affect couples’ willingness to make the commitment to the marriage implied by having children. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test the hypothesis that the risk of disruption faced by a married woman affects the chances that she will conceive and bear a child. The model used takes into account the simultaneous relationships between marital dissolution and marital fertility by including the hazard of disruption as a predictor of timing and likelihood of marital conception, and by including the results of previous fertility decisions as predictors of disruption of the marriage. We find that the hazard of disruption has strong negative effects on the hazard of marital childbearing, lengthening the intervals between births and decreasing the chances that a child will be born. This effect appears to be strongest for women who have had at least one child, either before or during the current marriage, although it is also large for childless women. Explicitly including the hazard of disruption in models of marital childbearing has sizable and important effects on many predictors of fertility.     

Abortion demand

Abortion may be characterized as fertility control. Costs and benefits of an additional child are weighed over time. If costs exceed benefits, fertility control is employed. An economic model of abortion demand is developed that incorporates price, income, demographic factors (tastes), and public policy issues such as abortion funding. A key finding is that state abortion funding, substituted for federal funding under Medicaid as a result of the Hyde Amendments, may be important to abortion demand but it is difficult to differentiate its effect from other effects at the state level with an econometric model.     

Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion

This paper investigates the effect of prenatal sex selection on fertility through a stochastic dynamic model with uncertainty in conception as well as in gender, where a woman makes decisions on conception and abortion with or without gender detection tests (i.e. sex-selective or sex-unselective abortion). The paper shows that, when the cost of gender detection test falls, the sex ratio at birth rises due to more selective abortions, but fertility can rise or fall with rising sex ratio. Fertility may rise (fall) if there are more (less) women giving up unselective abortions for selective abortions than women giving up childbirths without test for selective abortions. Similarly the paper shows that the sex ratio can rise or fall, when fertility decreases as the cost of children increases. I test these propositions as well as their implications against micro survey data on the pregnancy history of Korean women.Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Models of contemporary Dutch family building

Summary Recent data suggest that the level of use of oral contraceptives in the Netherlands is perhaps the highest in the world. Moreover, the greatest recent change in family building patterns is the tendency of newly weds to postpone their first birth. A micro-simulation model was developed to test the effect on fertility of such a change. An attempt was made to employ input data compatible with conditions obtaining in the Netherlands, and the distributions of family building patterns were based on recent survey evidence. The aim was not to duplicate Dutch fertility, but rather to estimate the range over which marital duration-specific fertility can be expected to vary with an increase in the proportion of couples who space their first birth. Such an increase was found to lower fertility dramatically after five years of marriage, although completed fertility was seen to vary very little. This result indicates the care that must be taken in ascribing a decline in the fertility of the early years of marriage to an overall fertility decline.     

Relative cohort size: source of a unifying theory of global fertility transition

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for 184 countries at five‐year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this article demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across countries since 1950—not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in developing countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of males aged 15–24 relative to males aged 25–59), which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among infants, children, and young adults during the demographic transition, appears to act as the mechanism that determines when the fertility portion of the transition begins. As hypothesized by Richard Easterlin, the increasing proportion of young adults generates a downward pressure on young men's relative wages (or on the size of landhold‐ings passed on from parent to child), which in turn causes young adults to accept a tradeoff between family size and material wellbeing, setting in motion a “cascade” or “snowball” effect in which total fertility rates tumble as social norms regarding acceptable family sizes begin to change.     

The need for family planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence on the need for family planning. The available evidence on current levels of unmet need for contraceptives, fertility preferences, and the non-contraceptive benefits of family planning is reviewed. I argue that expansion of family planning programs is still needed. These programs provide couples with tools to reach their desired family size; can significantly impact maternal and child mortality by decreasing fertility and optimizing child spacing; and by decreasing fertility, slow population growth. It is therefore imperative to continue to expand the provision of family planning services.     

World population beyond six billion

This world report reviews population growth pre-1900, population change during 1900-50 and 1950-2000, causes and effects of population change and projections to 2050. World population grew from 2 billion in 1900 to almost 6 billion in 2000. Population showed more rapid growth in the 17th and 18th centuries. Better hygiene and public sanitation in the 19th century led to expanded life expectancies and quicker growth, primarily in developed countries. Demographic transition in the 19th and 20th centuries was the result of shifts from high to low mortality and fertility. The pace of change varies with culture, level of economic development, and other factors. Not all countries follow the same path of change. The reproductive revolution in the mid-20th century and modern contraception led to greater individual control of fertility and the potential for rapid fertility decline. Political and cultural barriers that limit access affect the pace of decline. Population change is also affected by migration. Migration has the largest effect on the distribution of population. Bongaarts explains differences in fertility by the proportion in unions, contraceptive prevalence, infertility, and abortion. Educational status has a strong impact on adoption of family planning. Poverty is associated with multiple risks. In 2050, population could reach 10.7 billion or remain low at 7.3 billion.     

The Impact of the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision on Childbearing: Evidence From Tax Data

We use panel U.S. tax data spanning 2008–2013 to study the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) young adult provision on an important demographic outcome: childbearing. The impact is theoretically ambiguous: gaining insurance may increase access to contraceptive services while also reducing the out-of-pocket costs of childbirth. Because employer-reported U.S. Wage and Tax Statements (W-2 forms) record access to employer-provided benefits, we can examine the impact of the coverage expansion by focusing on young adults whose parents have access to benefits. We compare those who are slightly younger than the age threshold with those who are slightly older. Our results suggest that the ACA young adult provision led to a modest decrease in childbearing.     

Policies for fertility reduction: focus on Asia

Fertility can be affected by many factors. Over the long run, socioeconomic development has a decisive effect on reducing fertility. But in the short run, its effects are mixed. Providing greater educational opportunities, particularly for women, typically leads to lower fertility. Urban fertility tends to be much lower than rural fertility since urban residents have better access to information and health care. To the degree that governments are able to extend the reach of the modern sector to rural areas, they may be able to reduce fertility without encouraging urban growth. The effects of income on fertility are mixed: given sufficient time, higher incomes lead to lower fertility; but rising incomes in developing countries can, in the short run, increase fertility. Socioeconomic development factors, however, have less effect on fertility than do fertility dynamics at the individual level. Age at marriage, duration of breastfeeding, and use of contraceptives have important implications for fertility reduction policies. The contribution of of these factors to fertility control have been analyzed for a number of Asian and Pacific countries. Breastfeeding plays a key role in controlling fertility in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Later marriages compensate for lower breastfeeding levels in controlling fertility in other Asian and Pacific countries. The contribution of contraception to fertility control varies from 2% in Nepal to as much as 28% in Thailand. A low total fertility rate is almost always the result of relatively widespread use of contraceptives. Fertility rate reduction in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea in he 1970s can largely be explained by increases in contraceptive usage.     

Adieu Rabenmutter—culture,fertility, female labour supply,the gender wage gap and childcare

This paper studies the effect of cultural attitudes on childcare provision, fertility, female labour supply and the gender wage gap. Cross-country data show that fertility, female labour force participation and childcare provision are positively correlated with each other, while the gender wage gap seems to be negatively correlated with these variables. The paper presents a model with endogenous fertility, female labour supply and childcare choices driven by cultural attitudes which fits these facts. There may exist multiple equilibria: one with zero childcare provision, low fertility and female labour supply and high wage gap and one with high childcare provision, high fertility and female labour supply and low wage gap.