TESTING FOR MOVING AVERAGE REGRESSION DISTURBANCES

This paper considers a locally optimal procedure for testing for first order moving average disturbances in the linear regression model. For this hypothesis testing problem, the Durbin-Watson test is shown to be approximately locally best invariant while the new test is most powerful invariant in a given neighbourhood of the alternative hypothesis. Two versions of the test procedure are recommended for general use; one for problems involving positively correlated disturbances and one for negatively correlated disturbances. An empirical comparison of powers shows the clear superiority of the recommended tests over the Durbin-Watson test. Selected bounds for the tests' significance points are tabulated.     

Confidence intervals and tests on the variance ratio in random models with two variance components

The LM test is modified to test any value of the ratio of two variance components in a mixed effects linear model with two variance components. The test is exact, so it can be used to construct exact confidence intervals on this ratio.Exact Neyman-Pearson (NP) tests on the variance ratio are described.Their powers provide attainable upper bounds on powers of tests on the variance ratio.Efficiencies of LM tests, which include ANOVA tests, and NP tests are compared for unbalanced, random, one-way ANOVA models.Confidence intervals corresponding to LM tests and NP tests are described.     

Lower Bounds for the Efficiency of Designs with Respect to the D-Criterion when the Observations are Correlated

In the general linear model consider the experimental design problem for the Gauß-Markov estimator or least squares estimator when the observations are correlated. We prove new formulas for the efficiency of an exact design with respect to the D-criterion. For models with intercept term, for example, these formulas are useful to derive better lower bounds for the efficiency than the bounds recently given for an arbitrary linear model. These bounds are applied in examples to symmetrical regular circulants as covariance matrices. A byproduct of the investigations is some insight as to what kinds of designs might retain their optimality or high efficiency (for the uncorrelated homoscedastic case) under correlated observations.     

Some Properties of the Exact and Score Methods for Binomial Proportion and Sample Size Calculation

In this article, we point out some interesting relations between the exact test and the score test for a binomial proportion p. Based on the properties of the tests, we propose some approximate as well as exact methods of computing sample sizes required for the tests to attain a specified power. Sample sizes required for the tests are tabulated for various values of p to attain a power of 0.80 at level 0.05. We also propose approximate and exact methods of computing sample sizes needed to construct confidence intervals with a given precision. Using the proposed exact methods, sample sizes required to construct 95% confidence intervals with various precisions are tabulated for p = .05(.05).5. The approximate methods for computing sample sizes for score confidence intervals are very satisfactory and the results coincide with those of the exact methods for many cases.     

Significance tests and spurious correlation in regression models with autocorrelated errors

In this paper, we report some results on the exact significance level when the usual F-statistic is used in a linear regression model with autocorrelated disturbances. The exact tail area probabilities sometimes differ substantially from the nominal size used in an ‘F-test’ and from upper-bound probabilities derived by Kiviet (1979) which do not depend on the values of the regressors. A similar conclusion is also reached for the exact size of the significance tests for the spurious regressions considered by Granger and Newbold (1974, 1977). The results indicate once more that one has to be careful when using an algebraic F-test in the presence of autoregressive errors. However then too, the Durbin-Watson test is expected to indicate the presence of autocorrelation.     

Effects of correlated disturbances of some regression problems

In a linear regression model the disturbances are assumed to be independently distributed. If the correlation among the disturbances exists, then the usual F statistics have not the F distribution and the distributions depend on the regressor variables. This paper gives bounds on the F statistics, whose distributions do not depends on the regressor variables. The bounds are applied to a test on a general linear hypothesis of the regression coefficients and to evaluate the confidence level of a prediction set.     

Exact distribution of the MLEs of the parameters and of the quantiles of two-parameter exponential distribution under hybrid censoring

Epstein [Truncated life tests in the exponential case, Ann. Math. Statist. 25 (1954), pp. 555–564] introduced a hybrid censoring scheme (called Type-I hybrid censoring) and Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 17 (1988), pp. 1857–1870] derived the exact distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) of the mean of a scaled exponential distribution based on a Type-I hybrid censored sample. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type-I and Type-II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 55 (2003), pp. 319–330] provided an alternate simpler expression for this distribution, and also developed analogous results for another hybrid censoring scheme (called Type-II hybrid censoring). The purpose of this paper is to derive the exact bivariate distribution of the MLE of the parameter vector of a two-parameter exponential model based on hybrid censored samples. The marginal distributions are derived and exact confidence bounds for the parameters are obtained. The results are also used to derive the exact distribution of the MLE of the pth quantile, as well as the corresponding confidence bounds. These exact confidence intervals are then compared with parametric bootstrap confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities. Finally, we present some numerical examples to illustrate the methods of inference developed here.     

Simulation-Based Tests that Can Use Any Number of Simulations

Conventional procedures for Monte Carlo and bootstrap tests require that B, the number of simulations, satisfy a specific relationship with the level of the test. Otherwise, a test that would instead be exact will either overreject or underreject for finite B. We present expressions for the rejection frequencies associated with existing procedures and propose a new procedure that yields exact Monte Carlo tests for any positive value of B. This procedure, which can also be used for bootstrap tests, is likely to be most useful when simulation is expensive.     

Exact testing in multivariate regression

An F statistic due to Rao (1951,1973) tests uniform mixed linear restrictions in the multivariateregression model. In combination with a generalization of the Bera-Evans-Savin exact functional relationship between the W, LR, and LM statistics, Rao's F serves to unify a number of exact test procedures commonly applied in disparate empirical literatures. Examples in demand analysis and asset pricing are provided. The availability of exact tests of restrictions in certain nonlinear models when the model is linear under the null, originally explored by Milliken-Graybill (1970), is extended to multivariate regression. Generalized RESET, J-, and Hausman-Wu tests are resented. As an extension of Dufour (1989), bounds tests exist for nonlinear and inequality restrictions. Applications include conservative bound tests for symmetry or negativity of the substitution matrix in demand systems.     

A more powerful unconditional exact test of homogeneity for 2 × c contingency table analysis

The classical unconditional exact p-value test can be used to compare two multinomial distributions with small samples. This general hypothesis requires parameter estimation under the null which makes the test severely conservative. Similar property has been observed for Fisher's exact test with Barnard and Boschloo providing distinct adjustments that produce more powerful testing approaches. In this study, we develop a novel adjustment for the conservativeness of the unconditional multinomial exact p-value test that produces nominal type I error rate and increased power in comparison to all alternative approaches. We used a large simulation study to empirically estimate the 5th percentiles of the distributions of the p-values of the exact test over a range of scenarios and implemented a regression model to predict the values for two-sample multinomial settings. Our results show that the new test is uniformly more powerful than Fisher's, Barnard's, and Boschloo's tests with gains in power as large as several hundred percent in certain scenarios. Lastly, we provide a real-life data example where the unadjusted unconditional exact test wrongly fails to reject the null hypothesis and the corrected unconditional exact test rejects the null appropriately.     

The equivalence between likelihood ratio test and F-test for testing variance component in a balanced one-way random effects model

In mixed linear models, it is frequently of interest to test hypotheses on the variance components. F-test and likelihood ratio test (LRT) are commonly used for such purposes. Current LRTs available in literature are based on limiting distribution theory. With the development of finite sample distribution theory, it becomes possible to derive the exact test for likelihood ratio statistic. In this paper, we consider the problem of testing null hypotheses on the variance component in a one-way balanced random effects model. We use the exact test for the likelihood ratio statistic and compare the performance of F-test and LRT. Simulations provide strong support of the equivalence between these two tests. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence between these two tests mathematically.     

Exact Tests of Significance in Higher Dimensional Tables

We describe methods used to provide an exact test of significance of the hypothesis that all factors are mutually independent of each other in 2³ and 2⁴ contingency tables. Several numerical examples demonstrate the advantages of exact tests over approximate significance levels. We give bounds on the number of tables needed to perform this exact significance test. In four or more dimensions the number of tables in this enumeration becomes astronomical with even modest sample sizes. Inverting the characteristic function of the exact distribution has proved useful in these situations.     

Specification test for a linear regression model with ARCH process

ARCH models are used widely in analyzing economic and financial time series data. Many tests are available to detect the presence of ARCH; however, there is no acceptable procedure available for testing an estimated ARCH model.. In this paper we develop a test for a linear regression model with ARCH disturbances using the framework of the information matrix (IM) test. For the ARCH specification, the covariance matrix of the indicator vector is not block diagonal, and the IM test is turned out to be a test for variation in the fourth moment, i.e., a test for heterokurtosis. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed test.     

E- and R-optimality of block designs for treatment-control comparisons

Abstract

We study optimal block designs for comparing a set of test treatments with a control treatment. We provide the class of all E-optimal approximate block designs, which is characterized by simple linear constraints. Based on this characterization, we obtain a class of E-optimal exact designs for unequal block sizes. In the studied model, we provide a statistical interpretation for wide classes of E-optimal designs. Moreover, we show that all approximate A-optimal designs and a large class of A-optimal exact designs for treatment-control comparisons are also R-optimal. This reinforces the observation that A-optimal designs perform well even for rectangular confidence regions.     

Adjusted Likelihood Inference in an Elliptical Multivariate Errors-in-Variables Model

In this paper, we obtain an adjusted version of the likelihood ratio (LR) test for errors-in-variables multivariate linear regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal distribution as a special case. We derive a modified LR statistic that follows a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. Our results generalize those in Melo and Ferrari (Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2010, 94, pp. 75–87) by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued in the multivariate errors-in-variables model. We report a simulation study which shows that the proposed test displays superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard LR test.     

Chapter Notes

Tests for redundancy of variables in linear two-group discriminant analysis are well known and frequently used. We give a survey of similar tests, including the one-sample T ² as a special case, in the situation in which only the mean vector (but no covariance matrix) is available in one sample. Then we show that a relation between linear regression and discriminant functions found by Fisher (1936) can be generalized to this situation. Relating regression and discriminant analysis to a multivariate linear model sheds more light on the relationship between them. Practical and didactical advantages of the regression approach to T ² tests and discriminant analysis are outlined.     

A statistical testing framework for evaluating the quality of measurement processes

In this paper we address the evaluation of measurement process quality. We mainly focus on the evaluation procedure, as far as it is based on the numerical outcomes for the measurement of a single physical quantity. We challenge the approach where the ‘exact’ value of the observed quantity is compared with the error interval obtained from the measurements under test and we propose a procedure where reference measurements are used as ‘gold standard’. To this purpose, we designed a specific t-test procedure, explained here. We also describe and discuss a numerical simulation experiment demonstrating the behaviour of our procedure.     

Linear Models with Doubly Exchangeable Distributed Errors

We study the general linear model (GLM) with doubly exchangeable distributed error for m observed random variables. The doubly exchangeable general linear model (DEGLM) arises when the m-dimensional error vectors are “doubly exchangeable,” jointly normally distributed, which is a much weaker assumption than the independent and identically distributed error vectors as in the case of GLM or classical GLM (CGLM). We estimate the parameters in the model and also find their distributions. We show that the tests of intercept and slope are possible in DEGLM as a particular case using parametric bootstrap as well as multivariate Satterthwaite approximation.     

Consistency,asymptotic unbiasedness and bounds on the bias of s2 in the linear regression model with error component disturbances

The OLS estimator of the disturbance variance in the linear regression model with error component disturbances is shown to be weakly consistent and asymptotically unbiased without any restrictions on the regressor matrix. Also, simple exact bounds on the expected value of s² are given for both the one-way and two-way error component models.     

Classical testing in functional linear models

We extend four tests common in classical regression – Wald, score, likelihood ratio and F tests – to functional linear regression, for testing the null hypothesis, that there is no association between a scalar response and a functional covariate. Using functional principal component analysis, we re-express the functional linear model as a standard linear model, where the effect of the functional covariate can be approximated by a finite linear combination of the functional principal component scores. In this setting, we consider application of the four traditional tests. The proposed testing procedures are investigated theoretically for densely observed functional covariates when the number of principal components diverges. Using the theoretical distribution of the tests under the alternative hypothesis, we develop a procedure for sample size calculation in the context of functional linear regression. The four tests are further compared numerically for both densely and sparsely observed noisy functional data in simulation experiments and using two real data applications.