Joint modeling of bottle use,daily milk intake from bottles,and daily energy intake in toddlers

The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate effects of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11–13 months. In this paper, we propose to use shared parameter models and random effects models to model these outcomes jointly. Our joint models consist of two submodels: a two-part submodel for modeling the odds of bottle use and the intensity of daily milk intake from bottles, and a linear mixed submodel for modeling the intensity of daily energy intake. The two submodels are linked by either shared random effects or separate but correlated random effects. We investigate whether the intervention effects, parameter estimates, and model fit differ between shared parameter models and random effects models.     

Nonlinear regression modeling via regularized radial basis function networks

The problem of constructing nonlinear regression models is investigated to analyze data with complex structure. We introduce radial basis functions with hyperparameter that adjusts the amount of overlapping basis functions and adopts the information of the input and response variables. By using the radial basis functions, we construct nonlinear regression models with help of the technique of regularization. Crucial issues in the model building process are the choices of a hyperparameter, the number of basis functions and a smoothing parameter. We present information-theoretic criteria for evaluating statistical models under model misspecification both for distributional and structural assumptions. We use real data examples and Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the properties of the proposed nonlinear regression modeling techniques. The simulation results show that our nonlinear modeling performs well in various situations, and clear improvements are obtained for the use of the hyperparameter in the basis functions.     

On the relative efficiency of a monotone parameter curve estimator in a functional nonlinear model

Functional regression models that relate functional covariates to a scalar response are becoming more common due to the availability of functional data and computational advances. We introduce a functional nonlinear model with a scalar response where the true parameter curve is monotone. Using the Newton-Raphson method within a backfitting procedure, we discuss a penalized least squares criterion for fitting the functional nonlinear model with the smoothing parameter selected using generalized cross validation. Connections between a nonlinear mixed effects model and our functional nonlinear model are discussed, thereby providing an additional model fitting procedure using restricted maximum likelihood for smoothing parameter selection. Simulated relative efficiency gains provided by a monotone parameter curve estimator relative to an unconstrained parameter curve estimator are presented. In addition, we provide an application of our model with data from ozonesonde measurements of stratospheric ozone in which the measurements are biased as a function of altitude.     

Estimation of regression vectors in linear mixed models with Dirichlet process random effects

The Dirichlet process has been used extensively in Bayesian non parametric modeling, and has proven to be very useful. In particular, mixed models with Dirichlet process random effects have been used in modeling many types of data and can often outperform their normal random effect counterparts. Here we examine the linear mixed model with Dirichlet process random effects from a classical view, and derive the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of the fixed effects. We are also able to calculate the resulting covariance matrix and find that the covariance is directly related to the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process, giving a new interpretation of this parameter. We also characterize the relationship between the BLUE and the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator and show how confidence intervals can be approximated.     

Inferences from logistic regression models in the presence of small samples,rare events,nonlinearity, and multicollinearity with observational data

The logistic regression model has been widely used in the social and natural sciences and results from studies using this model can have significant policy impacts. Thus, confidence in the reliability of inferences drawn from these models is essential. The robustness of such inferences is dependent on sample size. The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of alternative data sets on the mean estimated bias and efficiency of parameter estimation and inference for the logistic regression model with observational data. A number of simulations are conducted examining the impact of sample size, nonlinear predictors, and multicollinearity on substantive inferences (e.g. odds ratios, marginal effects) when using logistic regression models. Findings suggest that small sample size can negatively affect the quality of parameter estimates and inferences in the presence of rare events, multicollinearity, and nonlinear predictor functions, but marginal effects estimates are relatively more robust to sample size.     

Bayesian Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression Based on Penalized Splines and Dirichlet Process Mixtures

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable approach under additive separability that allows us to correct for endogeneity bias in regression models where the covariate effects enter with unknown functional form. Bias correction relies on a simultaneous equations specification with flexible modeling of the joint error distribution implemented via a Dirichlet process mixture prior. Both the structural and instrumental variable equation are specified in terms of additive predictors comprising penalized splines for nonlinear effects of continuous covariates. Inference is fully Bayesian, employing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The resulting posterior samples do not only provide us with point estimates, but allow us to construct simultaneous credible bands for the nonparametric effects, including data-driven smoothing parameter selection. In addition, improved robustness properties are achieved due to the flexible error distribution specification. Both these features are challenging in the classical framework, making the Bayesian one advantageous. In simulations, we investigate small sample properties and an investigation of the effect of class size on student performance in Israel provides an illustration of the proposed approach which is implemented in an R package bayesIV. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Extending the inference function for augmented margins method to implement trivariate Clayton copula-based SUR Tobit models

Abstract

In this paper, we perform the analysis of the SUR Tobit model for three left-censored dependent variables by modeling its nonlinear dependence structure through the one-parameter Clayton copula. For unbiased parameter estimation, we propose an extension of the Inference Function for Augmented Margins (IFAM) method to the trivariate case. The interval estimation for the model parameters using resampling procedures is also discussed. We perform simulation and empirical studies, whose satisfactory results indicate the good performance of the proposed model and methods. Our procedure is illustrated using real data on consumption of food items (salad dressings, lettuce, tomato) by Americans.     

基于T-S模糊模型的非线性组合预测方法研究

一、引言自从Ｊ．Ｍ．Ｂａｔｅｓ和Ｃ．Ｗ．Ｊ．Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ首次提出组合预测方法［１］以来,组合预测的研究已经取得很大的进展,文献［２～６］对此有比较详细的综述和评价。根据集结或组合各单项预测模型的方式不同,组合预测一般可分为线性组合预测和非线性组合预...     

Estimation of Periodic Bilinear Time Series Models

In this article, a new class of models is proposed for modeling nonlinear and nonstationary time series. This new class of models, referred to as the periodic bilinear models, has a state space representation and can be characterized by a set of recursive equations. Condition for the stationarity is presented. Procedures for parameter estimation using the cumulants of order less than four are described and the accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated in the Monte Carlo simulations.     

A flexible semiparametric regression model for bimodal,asymmetric and censored data

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric heteroscedastic regression model allowing for positive and negative skewness and bimodal shapes using the B-spline basis for nonlinear effects. The proposed distribution is based on the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape framework in order to model any or all parameters of the distribution using parametric linear and/or nonparametric smooth functions of explanatory variables. We motivate the new model by means of Monte Carlo simulations, thus ignoring the skewness and bimodality of the random errors in semiparametric regression models, which may introduce biases on the parameter estimates and/or on the estimation of the associated variability measures. An iterative estimation process and some diagnostic methods are investigated. Applications to two real data sets are presented and the method is compared to the usual regression methods.     

Introduction of a new measure for detecting poor fit due to omitted nonlinear terms in SEM

The model chi-square that is used in linear structural equation modeling compares the fitted covariance matrix of a target model to an unstructured covariance matrix to assess global fit. For models with nonlinear terms, i.e., interaction or quadratic terms, this comparison is very problematic because these models are not nested within the saturated model that is represented by the unstructured covariance matrix. We propose a novel measure that quantifies the heteroscedasticity of residuals in structural equation models. It is based on a comparison of the likelihood for the residuals under the assumption of heteroscedasticity with the likelihood under the assumption of homoscedasticity. The measure is designed to respond to omitted nonlinear terms in the structural part of the model that result in heteroscedastic residual scores. In a small Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the measure appears to detect omitted nonlinear terms reliably when falsely a linear model is analyzed and the omitted nonlinear terms account for substantial nonlinear effects. The results also indicate that the measure did not respond when the correct model or an overparameterized model were used.     

Assessing conditional independence for log-linear poisson models with random effects

In the context of regression rnodels with random effects, repeated response are traditionally assumed to be mutually independent conditional on the random effects. In order to asseess the validity of such an assumption and its impact on parameter inference, we propose an estimating equation methodology where both random eifects and within-subject correlation are modeled. This fllows a subsequent analysis on the statistical sianificance of the conditional correlation. We illustrate this method with the epilepsy data of Thall and Vail (1990), and find our method useh in a proper representation for khe random effect modeling.     

A comparison of models using removal effort to estimate animal abundance

This paper compares methods for modeling the probability of removal when variable amounts of removal effort are present. A hierarchical modeling framework can produce estimates of animal abundance and detection from replicated removal counts taken at different locations in a region of interest. A common method of specifying variation in detection probabilities across locations or replicates is with a logistic model that incorporates relevant detection covariates. As an alternative to this logistic model, we propose using a catch–effort (CE) model to account for heterogeneity in detection when a measure of removal effort is available for each removal count. This method models the probability of detection as a nonlinear function of removal effort and a removal probability parameter that can vary spatially. Simulation results demonstrate that the CE model can effectively estimate abundance and removal probabilities when average removal rates are large but both the CE and logistic models tend to produce biased estimates as average removal rates decrease. We also found that the CE model fits better than logistic models when estimating wild turkey abundance using harvest and hunter counts collected by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources during the spring turkey hunting season.     

Exploratory model analysis using cdf knotting with applications to distinguishability,limiting forms,and moment ratios to the three parameter weibull family

An exploratory model analysis device we call CDF knotting is introduced. It is a technique we have found useful for exploring relationships between points in the parameter space of a model and global properties of associated distribution functions. It can be used to alert the model builder to a condition we call lack of distinguishability which is to nonlinear models what multicollinearity is to linear models. While there are simple remedial actions to deal with multicollinearity in linear models, techniques such as deleting redundant variables in those models do not have obvious parallels for nonlinear models. In some of these nonlinear situations, however, CDF knotting may lead to alternative models with fewer parameters whose distribution functions are very similar to those of the original overparameterized model. We also show how CDF knotting can be exploited as a mathematical tool for deriving limiting distributions and illustrate the technique for the 3-parameterWeibull family obtaining limiting forms and moment ratios which correct and extend previously published results. Finally, geometric insights obtained by CDF knotting are verified relative to data fitting and estimation.     

Double logistic curve in regression modeling

The logistic sigmoid curve is widely used in nonlinear regression and in binary response modeling. There are problems corresponding to a double sigmoid behavior which consists of the first increase to an early saturation at an intermediate level, and the second sigmoid with the eventual plateau of saturation. A double sigmoid behavior is usually achieved using additive or multiplicative combinations of logit and more complicated functions with numerous parameters. In this work, double sigmoid functions are constructed as logistic ones with a sign defining the point of inflection and with an additional powering parameter. The elaborated models describe rather complicated double saturation behavior via only four or five parameters which can be efficiently estimated by nonlinear optimization techniques. Theoretical features and practical applications of the models are discussed.     

Robust Inference in Conditionally Linear Nonlinear Regression Models

Abstract.  We consider robust methods of likelihood and frequentist inference for the nonlinear parameter, say α , in conditionally linear nonlinear regression models. We derive closed-form expressions for robust conditional, marginal, profile and modified profile likelihood functions for α under elliptically contoured data distributions. Next, we develop robust exact-F confidence intervals for α and consider robust Fieller intervals for ratios of regression parameters in linear models. Several well-known examples are considered and Monte Carlo simulation results are presented.     

Modeling the density of US yield curve using Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model

Abstract

This paper proposes the Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model for estimating the density of bond yields. Specifically, we model the distribution of the yield curve factors according to an infinite Markov mixture (iMM). The model allows for time variation in the mean and covariance matrix of factors in a discrete manner, as opposed to continuous changes in these parameters such as the Time Varying Parameter (TVP) models. Estimating the number of regimes using the iMM structure endogenously leads to an adaptive process that can generate newly emerging regimes over time in response to changing economic conditions in addition to existing regimes. The potential of the proposed framework is examined using US bond yields data. The semiparametric structure of the factors can handle various forms of non-normalities including fat tails and nonlinear dependence between factors using a unified approach by generating new clusters capturing these specific characteristics. We document that modeling parameter changes in a discrete manner increases the model fit as well as forecasting performance at both short and long horizons relative to models with fixed parameters as well as the TVP model with continuous parameter changes. This is mainly due to fact that the discrete changes in parameters suit the typical low frequency monthly bond yields data characteristics better.     

Transmuted Weibull distribution: Properties and estimation

In this article, we investigate the potential usefulness of the three-parameter transmuted Weibull distribution for modeling survival data. The main advantage of this distribution is that it has increasing, decreasing or constant instantaneous failure rate depending on the shape parameter and the new transmuting parameter. We obtain several mathematical properties of the transmuted Weibull distribution such as the expressions for the quantile function, moments, geometric mean, harmonic mean, Shannon, Rényi and q-entropies, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, and the moments of order statistics. We propose a location-scale regression model based on the log-transmuted Weibull distribution for modeling lifetime data. Applications to two real datasets are given to illustrate the flexibility and potentiality of the transmuted Weibull family of lifetime distributions.