Final outcome probabilities for SIR epidemic model

Abstract

We consider an SIR stochastic epidemic model in which new infections occur at rate f(x, y), where x and y are, respectively, the number of susceptibles and infectives at the time of infection and f is a positive sequence of real functions. A simple explicit formula for the final size distribution is obtained. Some efficient recursive methods are proved for the exact calculation of this distribution. In addition, we give a Gaussian approximation for the final distribution using a diffusion process approximation.     

Exact Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Stochastic Models of Epidemics Among a Community of Households

Abstract.  Much recent methodological progress in the analysis of infectious disease data has been due to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. In this paper, it is illustrated that rejection sampling can also be applied to a family of inference problems in the context of epidemic models, avoiding the issues of convergence associated with MCMC methods. Specifically, we consider models for epidemic data arising from a population divided into households. The models allow individuals to be potentially infected both from outside and from within the household. We develop methodology for selection between competing models via the computation of Bayes factors. We also demonstrate how an initial sample can be used to adjust the algorithm and improve efficiency. The data are assumed to consist of the final numbers ultimately infected within a sample of households in some community. The methods are applied to data taken from outbreaks of influenza.     

Spatial measurement error in infectious disease models

Individual-level models (ILMs) for infectious disease can be used to model disease spread between individuals while taking into account important covariates. One important covariate in determining the risk of infection transfer can be spatial location. At the same time, measurement error is a concern in many areas of statistical analysis, and infectious disease modelling is no exception. In this paper, we are concerned with the issue of measurement error in the recorded location of individuals when using a simple spatial ILM to model the spread of disease within a population. An ILM that incorporates spatial location random effects is introduced within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This model is tested upon both simulated data and data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. The ability of the model to successfully identify both the spatial infection kernel and the basic reproduction number (R ₀) of the disease is tested.     

A Statistical Method for the Determination of the Appropriate Order in a General Class of Time Series Models

Abstract

We propose a method to determine the order q of a model in a general class of time series models. For the subset of linear moving average models (MA(q)), our method is compared with that of the sample autocorrelations. Since the sample autocorrelation is meant to detect a linear structure of dependence between random variables, it turns out to be more suitable for the linear case. However, our method presents a competitive option in that case, and for nonlinear models (NLMA(q)) it is shown to work better. The main advantages of our approach are that it does not make assumptions on the existence of moments and on the distribution of the noise involved in the moving average models. We also include an example with real data corresponding to the daily returns of the exchange rate process of mexican pesos and american dollars.     

On the q-Weibull Distribution and Its Applications

The q-Weibull distribution is a stretched model for Weibull distribution, obtained by introducing a new pathway parameter q, which facilitates a slow transition to the Weibull as q → 1. In this article, we make a detailed study of the properties of the q-Weibull distribution and we apply it to a data on cancer remission times for which this distribution is a better fit than Weibull. Results relating to reliability properties, estimation of parameters, and applications in stress-strength analysis are also obtained.     

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number in the General Epidemic Model with an Unknown Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals

Abstract. In any epidemic, there may exist an unidentified subpopulation which might be naturally immune or isolated and who will not be involved in the transmission of the disease. Estimation of key parameters, for example, the basic reproductive number, without accounting for this possibility would underestimate the severity of the epidemics. Here, we propose a procedure to estimate the basic reproductive number ( R ₀ ) in an epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptibles. The infection process is usually not completely observed, but is reconstructed by a kernel‐smoothing method under a counting process framework. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the estimators for major epidemics. We illustrate the procedure using the Abakaliki smallpox data.     

Euler(p,q) Processes and Their Application to Non Stationary Time Series with Time Varying Frequencies

We introduce Euler(p, q) processes as an extension of the Euler(p) processes for purposes of obtaining more parsimonious models for non stationary processes whose periodic behavior changes approximately linearly in time. The discrete Euler(p, q) models are a class of multiplicative stationary (M-stationary) processes and basic properties are derived. The relationship between continuous and discrete mixed Euler processes is shown. Fundamental to the theory and application of Euler(p, q) processes is a dual relationship between discrete Euler(p, q) processes and ARMA processes, which is established. The usefulness of Euler(p, q) processes is examined by comparing spectral estimation with that obtained by existing methods using both simulated and real data.     

Construction of Efficient Multi-Level k-Circulant Supersaturated Designs

This article proposes an algorithm to construct efficient balanced multi-level k-circulant supersaturated designs with m factors and n runs. The algorithm generates efficient balanced multi-level k-circulant supersaturated designs very fast. Using the proposed algorithm many balanced multi-level supersaturated designs are constructed and cataloged. A list of many optimal and near optimal, multi-level supersaturated designs is also provided for m ≤ 60 and number of levels (q) ≤10. The algorithm can be used to generate two-level k-circulant supersaturated designs also and some large optimal two-level supersaturated designs are presented. An upper bound to the number of factors in a balanced multi-level supersaturated design such that no two columns are fully aliased is also provided.     

Some remarks on the duality of continuous time markov chains

A simple proof of Siegmund's result on the relation between dual q-matrices and dual transition functions for Markov chains is given. A byproduct is a uniqueness result for minimal solutions of stochastically monotone q-matrices.     

Fast nonparametric classification based on data depth

A new procedure, called D D α-procedure, is developed to solve the problem of classifying d-dimensional objects into q ≥ 2 classes. The procedure is nonparametric; it uses q-dimensional depth plots and a very efficient algorithm for discrimination analysis in the depth space [0,1] ^q . Specifically, the depth is the zonoid depth, and the algorithm is the α-procedure. In case of more than two classes several binary classifications are performed and a majority rule is applied. Special treatments are discussed for ‘outsiders’, that is, data having zero depth vector. The D Dα-classifier is applied to simulated as well as real data, and the results are compared with those of similar procedures that have been recently proposed. In most cases the new procedure has comparable error rates, but is much faster than other classification approaches, including the support vector machine.     

Grouping strategies and thresholding for high dimensional linear models

The estimation problem in a high regression model with structured sparsity is investigated. An algorithm using a two-step block thresholding procedure called GR-LOL is provided. Convergence rates are produced: they depend on simple coherence-type indices of the Gram matrix – easily checkable on the data – as well as sparsity assumptions of the model parameters measured by a combination of l₁ within-blocks with _lq$l_q$, q<1$q<1$ between-blocks norms. The simplicity of the coherence indicator suggests ways to optimize the rates of convergence when the group structure is not naturally given by the problem or is unknown. In such a case, an auto-driven procedure is provided to determine the regressor groups (number and contents). An intensive practical study compares our grouping methods with the standard LOL algorithm. We prove that the grouping rarely deteriorates the results but can improve them very significantly. GR-LOL is also compared with group-Lasso procedures and exhibits a very encouraging behavior. The results are quite impressive, especially when GR-LOL algorithm is combined with a grouping pre-processing.     

A generalized step-up-down multiple test procedure

A generalization of step-up and step-down multiple test procedures is proposed. This step-up-down procedure is useful when the objective is to reject a specified minimum number, q, out of a family of k hypotheses. If this basic objective is met at the first step, then it proceeds in a step-down manner to see if more than q hypotheses can be rejected. Otherwise it proceeds in a step-up manner to see if some number less than q hypotheses can be rejected. The usual step-down procedure is the special case where q = 1, and the usual step-up procedure is the special case where q = k. Analytical and numerical comparisons between the powers of the step-up-down procedures with different choices of q are made to see how these powers depend on the actual number of false hypotheses. Examples of application include comparing the efficacy of a treatment to a control for multiple endpoints and testing the sensitivity of a clinical trial for comparing the efficacy of a new treatment with a set of standard treatments.     

Probabilistic Properties of Parametric Dual and Inverse Time Series Models Generated by ARMA Models

For the class of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) processes, we examine the relationship between the dual and the inverse processes. It is demonstrated that the inverse process generated by a causal and invertible ARMA (p, q) process is a causal and invertible ARMA (q, p) model. Moreover, it is established that this representation is strong if and only if the generating process is Gaussian. More precisely, it is derived that the linear innovation process of the inverse process is an all-pass model. Some examples and applications to time reversibility are given to illustrate the obtained results.     

A new diagnostic tool for VARMA(p,q) models

A new diagnostic method for VARMA(p,q) time series models is introduced. The procedure is based on a statistic that generalizes to a multivariate setting the properties of the usual univariate ARMA(p,q) residual correlations. A multiple version of the cumulative periodogram statistic is also suggested. Simulation studies and one real data application are presented.     

Numerical computation of multivariate t-probabilities with application to power calculation of multiple contrasts

A new method to calculate the multivariate t-distribution is introduced. We provide a series of substitutions, which transform the starting q-variate integral into one over the (q—1)-dimensional hypercube. In this situation standard numerical integration methods can be applied. Three algorithms are discussed in detail. As an application we derive an expression to calculate the power of multiple contrast tests assuming normally distributed data.     

A unified approach to the summation and integration formulas for q-hypergeometric functions I

The most basic summation formula in the theory of q-hypergeometric functions is the well-known q-binomial formula. Not so well-known is the fact that there is a bilateral extension of it due to Ramanujan, and that there are two integral analogues of it. We show that these summation formulas as well as their integral counterparts have essentially the same origin, namely, a Pearson-type difference equation on a q-linear lattice. It is shown that the boundary conditions determine the structure of the solution of this equation which also enables us to evaluate the sums and integrals by a systematic process of iteration. We conclude by giving a very simple derivation of the q-Gauss formula and a second summation formula for a nonterminating ₂ф₁ series.     

Bayesian analysis of censored linear regression models with scale mixtures of normal distributions

As is the case of many studies, the data collected are limited and an exact value is recorded only if it falls within an interval range. Hence, the responses can be either left, interval or right censored. Linear (and nonlinear) regression models are routinely used to analyze these types of data and are based on normality assumptions for the errors terms. However, those analyzes might not provide robust inference when the normality assumptions are questionable. In this article, we develop a Bayesian framework for censored linear regression models by replacing the Gaussian assumptions for the random errors with scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions. The SMN is an attractive class of symmetric heavy-tailed densities that includes the normal, Student-t, Pearson type VII, slash and the contaminated normal distributions, as special cases. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced to carry out posterior inference. A new hierarchical prior distribution is suggested for the degrees of freedom parameter in the Student-t distribution. The likelihood function is utilized to compute not only some Bayesian model selection measures but also to develop Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on the q-divergence measure. The proposed Bayesian methods are implemented in the R package BayesCR. The newly developed procedures are illustrated with applications using real and simulated data.     

On the invertibility conditions for moving average processes

Conditions for the general Moving Average process, of order q, to be invertible or borderline non-invertible are deduced. These are termed the acceptability conditions. It turns out that they depend on the magnitude of the final moving average parameter, θ _q . If ‖θ _q ‖ >1, the process is not acceptable. Should ‖θ _q ‖ = 1, the conditions, for any particular q, follow simply - if use is made of the remainder theorem. When ‖θ_q‖< 1, an appeal is made to ROUCH* E'S theorem, to establish the conditions. Analogous stationarity results immediately follow for autoregressive processes.     

Reduced-Bias Location-Invariant Extreme Value Index Estimation: A Simulation Study

In this article, we deal with semi-parametric corrected-bias estimation of a positive extreme value index (EVI), the primary parameter in statistics of extremes. Under such a context, the classical EVI-estimators are the Hill estimators, based on any intermediate number k of top-order statistics. But these EVI-estimators are not location-invariant, contrarily to the PORT-Hill estimators, which depend on an extra tuning parameter q, with 0 ≤ q < 1, and where PORT stands for peaks over random threshold. On the basis of second-order minimum-variance reduced-bias (MVRB) EVI-estimators, we shall here consider PORT-MVRB EVI-estimators. Due to the stability on k of the MVRB EVI-estimates, we propose the use of a heuristic algorithm, for the adaptive choice of k and q, based on the bias pattern of the estimators as a function of k. Applications in the fields of insurance and finance will be provided.     

An optimal k of kth MA-ARIMA models under a class of ARIMA model

In this article, we discuss finding the optimal k of (i) kth simple moving average, (ii) kth weighted moving average, and (iii) kth exponential weighted moving average based on simulated ARIMA(p, d, q) model. We run a simulation using the three above examining methods under specific conditions. The main finding is that 5th exponential weighted moving average (5th EWMA) ARIMA model is the best forecasting model among others, which means the optimal k = 5. For Turkish Telecommunications (TTKOM) stock market, real data reveal the similar results of simulation study.