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1.
Robert Bozick 《Demography》2009,46(3):493-512
Using a nationally representative sample of graduates from the high school class of 2003-2004, I test the warehouse hypothesis,
which contends that youth are more likely to leave school and enter the labor force when there are available job opportunities
(and vice versa). Using two measures of job opportunities—local unemployment rates and the percentage of local workers employed
in jobs that require a bachelor’s degree—I find support for the warehouse hypothesis. In areas where unemployment is low,
with ample jobs that do not require a bachelor’s degree, youth have higher odds of entering the labor force. In areas where
unemployment is high, with few jobs that require only a high school diploma, youth have higher odds of entering college. The
effect of unemployment on enrollment is more pronounced for low-income youth than for high-income youth, with both low- and
high-income youth turning to four-year schools rather than two-year schools when job opportunities are limited. 相似文献
2.
In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and
other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience,
and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those
of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared
with the outcomes for males.
Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 5 March 1999 相似文献
3.
This paper examines the secondary effects of policies that extend or deny in-state tuition to children of undocumented immigrants. Drawing upon repeated cross-sections of 15–17-year-olds in the Current Population Survey across 1997–2010, we assess changes in high school enrollment rates among Mexican-born non-citizen youth—a proxy for the undocumented youth population. We find that Mexican-born non-citizen youth living in states that deny in-state tuition benefits to undocumented youth are 49 % less likely to be enrolled in school than their peers living in states with no explicit policy. Conversely, Mexican-born non-citizen youth living in states that grant in-state tuition benefits to undocumented youth are 65 % more likely to be enrolled in school than their peers living in states with no explicit policy. The enactment of these policies is unrelated to changes in school enrollment among naturalized citizens. Our findings lend support to the proposition that that the implementation of in-state tuition policies sends signals to immigrant youth about their future educational possibilities in the long-term, which in turn influences the extent to which they engage in school in the short-term. 相似文献
4.
Gerard J. van den Berg Anders Holm Jan C. van Ours 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):647-665
In the Netherlands, students who want to become a medical specialist have to enrol in a training program which is in limited
supply. During the search for a position as trainee (or “junior medical specialist”), they may accept a temporary job as a
medical assistant. We use a micro data set to investigate whether such work experience increases the probability of becoming
junior medical specialist. To deal with selectivity, we simultaneously model the transitions from unemployment to trainee,
from unemployment to medical assistant, from medical assistant to trainee and from medical assistant to unemployment. We find
that a job as medical assistant helps to become a medical specialist.
Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 31 January 2001
All correspondence to Gerard J. van den Berg. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
5.
This paper uses longitudinal survey data to assess factors affecting the duration of unemployment in Russia. We examine four
types of marginalised labour force participants, according to ILO guidelines and survey responses, and we estimate duration
models for each type. It turns out that the sets of characteristics with the strongest effects on the duration are remarkably
similar across the different unemployment definitions and model specifications. Therefore, despite the formidable practical
measurement problems, problematic groups of individuals can actually be identified.
Received: 27 January 1999/Accepted: 27 January 2000 相似文献
6.
Halpern-Manners A 《Demography》2011,48(1):73-99
While academic and policy circles have given much attention to the assimilatory experiences of Mexican immigrants in the United
States, less is known about those who stay behind—an especially unfortunate oversight given the increasing number of Mexican
youth with migrant family members. Of the studies on this topic, most have sought to identify the effect that migration has
on youths’ migratory and educational aspirations, often using qualitative methods in individual sending communities. The present
article supplements this research in two ways: (1) in addition to assessing educational outcomes, the scope of the analysis
is expanded to include nonmigrants’ interaction with another homeland institution of upward mobility: the labor market; and
(2) using a large demographic data set, statistical techniques are employed to adjust for unobserved selectivity into the
migrant family-member population, thus accounting for a potentially serious source of bias. The results suggest that youth
in migrant-sending families are less likely to complete the educational transitions leading up to postsecondary school and
have a lower probability of participating in the local economy. The results also indicate that unobserved factors play a “nonignorable”
role in sorting youth into migrant and nonmigrant families. 相似文献
7.
This paper studies the effect of increased immigration in Austria on the unemployment risk of young natives. Austria experienced
a dramatic rise in the share of alien workers as a result of the breakdown of the former communist regimes (especially from
former Yugoslavia). We concentrate on unemployment entry of young male workers, who are supposed to compete most heavily with
new immigrants. Our results indicate that the detrimental impact – if it exists at all – is only minor. This is irrespective
of the analyzed proxy for competition: The share of foreign workers in an industry or in a region.
Received: 7 March 1996/Accepted: 20 March 1998 相似文献
8.
Using data from two large-scale household surveys in 1987 and 1994, we estimate wage equations which show substantial increases
in returns to university education for young Irish workers over the period, despite the exceptional increase in numbers with
these qualifications. Returns to non-degree third level certificates and diplomas fell in relative terms, but returns to qualifications
obtained by those leaving school at about 16 years of age rose. We argue that the increased return to university education
primarily reflects the generalised shift in demand towards skilled labour internationally and the open nature of the Irish
labour market. However, a floor may have been placed under earnings for low-skilled youth by the increased generosity of income
support available to them.
Received: 29 December 1997/Accepted: 7 August 1998 相似文献
9.
Poland on the dole: The effect of reducing the unemployment benefit entitlement period during transition 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Patrick A. Puhani 《Journal of population economics》2000,13(1):35-44
We analyse the unemployment benefit regime change that occurred in Poland in December 1991 using data from the Polish Labour
Force Survey. Before December 1991, the entitlement period to unemployment benefits was unlimited. Thereafter, it was reduced
to 12 months (with a few exceptions). Using the difference-in-differences approach within a hazard rate framework, we find
that the regime change did not have a significant effect on the duration of unemployment. The results thus give credence to
the view that the unlimited entitlement period of the old unemployment benefit regime was not the main culprit for the long durations of unemployment in Poland, although the generous eligibility criteria may have contributed to the increase in the incidence of registered unemployment at the beginning of the transition process.
Received: 21 May 1997/Accepted: 15 March 1999 相似文献
10.
The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Patricia Rice 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(2):287-312
The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education
or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies,
coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market
factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in
the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation
rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour
market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising.
Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998 相似文献
11.
12.
JooHee Han 《Population research and policy review》2018,37(4):615-640
This paper analyzes the selection processes behind post-schooling transitions into college enrollment, military service, long-term unemployment, and incarceration relative to civilian employment, examining to what extent these processes are racialized. Rather than analyzing a complete set of alternatives, previous research typically focuses on a limited set of these alternatives at a time, and rarely accounts for incarceration or long-term unemployment. Using individual-level panel data on the first post-high school transition from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort, results show that white men experience positive transitions (college enrollment and military service) at higher rates and for longer periods than black men, who experience negative transitions (long-term unemployment and incarceration) at higher rates for longer periods than whites. Competing risk Cox regression analyses reveal that blacks’ transitions are polarized, showing that blacks in the upper distributions of standardized test scores and socioeconomic status are more likely to pursue a college education relative to their white counterparts, whereas blacks in the bottom of the standardized test score and socioeconomic status distribution are more likely to experience negative transitions than whites. Unlike prior research finding that military service provided “bridging careers” for racial minorities, black men are no longer more likely to join the military than whites. Instead, blacks now face a much higher risk of incarceration. Implications for intra-generational mobility and changing opportunity structures for racial minorities are discussed. 相似文献
13.
Unemployment benefits, risk aversion, and migration incentives 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Axel Heitmueller 《Journal of population economics》2005,18(1):93-112
With reference to the EU enlargement, a framework is derived which allows the study of the effect of unemployment benefits on the migration decision. While benefits simply increase the expected gain for risk neutral individuals, they work as an insurance device for risk averse migrants; the results for the two groups might differ. Thus, the migration decision is reformulated as monetary lottery. Unsurprisingly, the paper finds that risk averse individuals are less likely to engage in migration. Yet, introducing unemployment benefits also makes them select a different set of countries. The implications of selection and sorting, however, depend crucially on the link between risk aversion and economically important personal characteristics. It is also shown that unemployment benefits give rise to intertemporal trade-offs in migration returns.The author is grateful for helpful comments by Hartmut Lehmann, Christoph M. Schmidt and three anonymous referees. I also like to thank my colleagues at CERT and participants of the R.O.S.E.S. Enlargement Conference 2003 in Paris. This work has been conducted before the author joint DWP and does not reflect the opinion of the department. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
14.
This paper utilizes a new data set, compiled by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Revenue Canada and Statistics Canada,
to examine the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records
of unemployment insurance benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the
unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country
of last permanent residence. The determinants of the proportion of each immigrant cohort that received unemployment insurance
benefits are estimated by relating the proportions to landing year, duration of time in Canada, and labour market conditions.
Briefly, we find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession
of 1981–82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits
did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts.
Received: 5 December 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996 相似文献
15.
Two separate cohorts of immigrants to Australia are compared in order to assess the potential role of immigrant selection criteria, labor market conditions, and income-support policy in facilitating the labor market adjustment of new arrivals. Although these two cohorts entered Australia only five years apart, their initial labor market outcomes varied dramatically. The results indicate that changes in immigration policy may have led to increased human capital endowments that in turn resulted in higher participation rates and reduced unemployment. At the same time, improvement in Australian labor market conditions and changes in income-support policy over the 1990s – which most likely altered the returns to human capital – were probably instrumental in reinforcing the effects of tighter immigrant selection criteria. As much as half of the fall in unemployment rates among women and one third the decline among men appears to have occurred as the result of changes in the returns to demographic and human capital characteristics.
Responsible editor:Christoph M. Schmidt 相似文献
16.
Rachel E. Goldberg 《Population and development review》2013,39(2):231-256
Social, political, epidemiological, and economic forces have produced family instability during childhood for many young people transitioning to adulthood in South Africa. This study identifies pathways to adulthood for youth in Cape Town that capture the timing and sequencing of role transitions across the life domains of school, work, and family formation. It then uses these pathways to investigate the relationship between childhood family instability and the way young people's lives unfold during the transition to adulthood. Results indicate that changes in co‐residence with parents are associated with following less advantageous pathways into adulthood, independent of particular family structure or orphan status. Overall, the findings suggest that family instability influences not only single transitions for youth, but also combinations of transitions. They also indicate the value of a multi‐dimensional conceptualization of the transition to adulthood in empirical work. 相似文献
17.
Michael Rosholm 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(1):173-191
In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a
sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all
contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment
is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed
finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration
dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high.
Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999 相似文献
18.
Abbott L. Ferriss 《Social indicators research》1974,1(1):73-84
Educational indicators are statistical time series that reflect the state of some element of the educational system. Most turning points in educational indicators are not cyclical, but respond to major societal events. Three examples are presented: The probability of a 10th grader continuing to the 11th grade has increased linearly for 60 years, being affected positively by unemployment and negatively by increase in GNP per capita and by military expansion. Baccalaureate degrees per high school graduate four years earlier declined with the expansion of secondary education following the 1890's, rising after World War I, falling as the Depression approached. A major turning point occurred after World War II and the indicator peaked in 1950. A current downward turning point in school enrollment rate of 18–19 year old males may have been prompted by a change in selective service policies granting exemptions to college enrollees. Continuous monitorship of educational indicators would facilitate the development of policy and programs to adjust to dysfunctional educational trends. 相似文献
19.
This paper investigates the degree to which the individual exit rate out of unemployment for young job seekers changes as
a function of the elapsed unemployment duration. We use a nonparametric estimation method for population data on outflows
from different duration classes. The method also provides estimates of the amount of unobserved heterogeneity in these data.
We explicitly take into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle. The method is applied to population
data on young French unemployed job seekers. The results are used for policy recommendations.
Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 23 July 1998 相似文献
20.
Migrants are sometimes regarded as marginal workers in metropolitan labour markets. London has long been a major destination
for migrants from elsewhere in Britain and abroad. In this paper we examine the earnings and unemployment experience in 1929–1931
of male workers who migrated to London, or within London. We use data from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, a large survey of working class households, the records from which have recently been computerised. Our findings indicate
that migrants were not marginal, in fact they enjoyed slightly higher earnings and lower unemployment incidence than native
Londoners. Much of the advantage can be explained by differences in average skill levels and personal characteristics.
Received: 2 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000 相似文献