Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: how big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic 'dividend': extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985-2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

Is consanguinity an impediment to child development?

Marriages between blood relatives—also known as consanguineous unions—are widespread in North Africa, Central and West Asia, and South Asia. Researchers have suggested that consanguinity has adverse effects on child development, but assessing its impact is not straightforward, as the decision to marry a relative might be endogenous to other socio-economic factors. Using a unique data set collected in rural Pakistan, this paper assesses the extent to which consanguinity is linked to children’s cognitive and physical development. It exploits grandfathers’ land ownership (current and past) and maternal grandparent mortality to identify the effect of endogenous consanguinity on child development. Children born into consanguineous unions have lower cognitive scores, lower height-for-age, and a higher likelihood of being severely stunted. More importantly, adverse effects are greater after accounting for the endogeneity of consanguinity, suggesting that impacts on child development are substantial, and likely to be larger than suggested in previous studies.     

Is There an Urban Advantage in Child Survival in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence From 18 Countries in the 1990s

Evidence of higher child mortality of rural-to-urban migrants compared with urban nonmigrants is growing. However, less attention has been paid to comparing the situation of the same families before and after they migrate with the situation of urban-to-rural migrants. We use DHS data from 18 African countries to compare child mortality rates of six groups based on their mothers’ migration status: rural nonmigrants; urban nonmigrants; rural-to-urban migrants before and after they migrate; and urban-to-rural migrants before and after they migrate. The results show that rural-to-urban migrants had, on average, lower child mortality before they migrated than rural nonmigrants, and that their mortality levels dropped further after they arrived in urban areas. We found no systematic evidence of higher child mortality for rural-to-urban migrants compared with urban nonmigrants. Urban-to-rural migrants had higher mortality in the urban areas, and their move to rural areas appeared advantageous because they experienced lower or similar child mortality after living in rural areas. After we control for known demographic and socioeconomic correlates of under-5 mortality, the urban advantage is greatly reduced and sometimes reversed. The results suggest that it may not be necessarily the place of residence that matters for child survival but, rather, access to services and economic opportunities.     

Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.     

Escape route to dependency? Female migration from Sri Lanka to the Middle East

This article looks at labor migration with the sex component turned upside down, where the woman leaves hearth and home in search of work in distant lands. The sending country is Sri Lanka, and the women migrate as maids to Arab households in the Gulf area. Labor migration must be understood in the context of the economic and social development that has made migration possible, or rather pushed it forward. Today, the export of labor is the 2nd biggest source of foreign earnings for Sri Lanka, and females constitute the largest single group of labor migrants. There is 1 clear aspect of female migration: it is almost without exception the poorest strata of society that send their women to the Gulf as housemaids. 3 factors tend to reduce the value of wages earned in the Middle East: 1) for a majority of the migrants there are high social costs involved, 2) there are high transaction costs just to obtain a Gulf job, and 3) performing paid housework tends to be regarded as a low-status occupation and is less attractive to households that have alternative means of income. Not only are the migrant women themselves exposed to a very different society, with different values and ways of living, but also the whole community at home gets a concept of "abroad." The Sri Lankan government expects the contingent of female migrants to grow, though against this is the fact that Sri Lanka now faces stronger competition in female labor exports from other Asian countries.     

Women Left Behind? Poverty and Headship in Africa

Two stylized facts about poverty in Africa motivate this article: female-headed households tend to be poorer, and poverty has been falling in the aggregate since the 1990s. These facts raise two questions. First, how have female-headed households fared? Second, what role have they played in Africa’s impressive recent aggregate growth and poverty reduction? Using data covering the entire region, we reexamine the current prevalence and characteristics of female-headed households and ask whether their prevalence has been rising, what factors have been associated with such changes since the mid-1990s, and whether poverty has fallen equiproportionately for male- and female-headed households. Lower female headship is associated with higher gross domestic product. However, other subtle transformations occurring across Africa—changes in marriage behavior, family formation, health, and education—are positively related to female headship, resulting in a growing share of female-headed households. This shift has been happening alongside declining aggregate poverty incidence. However, rather than being left behind, female-headed households have generally seen faster poverty reduction. As a whole, this group has contributed substantially to the reduction in poverty despite their smaller share in the population.     

Deadly Cities? Spatial Inequalities in Mortality in sub‐Saharan Africa

We investigate whether sub‐Saharan African countries are affected by an “urban mortality penalty” repeating the history of industrialized countries during the nineteenth century. We analyze Demographic and Health Surveys from several sub‐Saharan African countries for differences in child and adult mortality between rural and urban areas. For the first decade of the 2000s, our findings indicate that child mortality is higher in rural than in urban areas for all countries. On average, child mortality rates are 13.6 percent in rural areas and 10.8 percent in urban areas. In contrast, average urban adult mortality rates (14.1 percent) have exceeded rural adult mortality rates (12.4 percent). Child mortality rates are on average 65 percent higher in urban slums than in formal settlements. Child mortality rates in slum areas are, however, still lower than or equal to those in rural areas for most countries in our sample.     

Social Desirability Bias in Self-reports of Physical Activity: Is an Exercise Identity the Culprit?

Like that of other normative behaviors, much of the research on physical exercise is based on self-reports that are prone to overreporting. While research has focused on identifying the presence and degree of overreporting, this paper fills an important gap by investigating its causes. The explanation based in impression management will be challenged, using an explanation based in identity theory as an arguably better fitting alternative. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: (1) a web instrument using direct survey questions, or (2) a chronological reporting procedure using text messaging. Comparisons to validation data from a reverse record check indicate significantly greater rates of overreporting in the web condition than in the text condition. Results suggest that measurement bias is associated with the importance of the respondents’ exercise identity, prompted by the directness of the conventional survey question. Findings call into question the benefit of self-administration for bias reduction in measurement of normative behaviors.     

Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?

We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and international migration for the 1980–2010 period using a dataset on migration from 91 emerging countries to the 20 most attractive OECD destination countries. We find that more economic freedom at home discourages high-skilled migration, but not low-skilled migration. The negative association between economic freedom and high-skilled emigration also holds when we estimate (dynamic) panel models that allow for endogeneity in the economic freedom-migration nexus. In sum, our findings suggest that high-skilled migration is especially responsive to the economic incentives resulting from economic freedom.     

Does race matter? Children's height in Brazil and South Africa

I examine racial differences in child stunting in mid-1990s South Africa and Brazil, two multiracial societies with different histories of legal support for racial discrimination. Using data from nationally representative household samples linked to community-level measures, the analysis shows that racial inequality in the distribution of socioeconomic resources across households and communities explains much of the racial difference in stunting in both countries. Even after these factors are controlled, however, the results indicate that in South Africa, nonwhite children are still at greater risk of growth faltering than are white children. The nature of socioeconomic and racial differences in children's growth is examined, and major determinants are discussed. These findings suggest that although state-sanctioned racism may help to explain the greater racial inequality in stunting in South Africa than in Brazil, the eradication of a disadvantage for nonwhites will depend on changes in the same fundamental socioeconomic inequalities that characterize both nations.     

Below-repiacement fertility in Tropical Africa? Some evidence from Addis Ababa

In the past few years there has been a gradual but progressive shift away from the long held scepticism about the prospect of reproductive change in Tropical Africa. Consequendy, the question is now not so much whether Tropical Africa remains a spectator of fertility transition, but whether and how soon fertility in the region will decline to level attained in other parts of the world. Using data from a series of censuses and surveys conducted in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, a country which itself has high fertility, this study explores emerging evidence of fertility levels below two children per woman in an African city. Postponement of marriage and increased incidence of non-marriage, as well as a decline in marital fertility recorded across all birth orders and all age group, are the routes by which the observed transition to below-replacement fertility has been achieved. The paper outlines some tentative institutional and cultural factors that may have contributed to these changes. Revised version of an essay awarded the W.D. Borrie prize (postgraduate section), 1998.     

Is Football an Indicator of Development at the International Level?

The aim of this paper is to examine whether football can be considered an indicator of development at the international level. An empirical econometric model is designed in order to analyse development in terms of GDP per capita as well as in terms of the Human Development Index. Cross-sectional and time-series information are used. The results suggest that FIFA rankings of national teams can be used to complement our understanding of multidimensional development, in particular, in those countries where the availability of information is not as good as researchers would like.     

Is it possible to incorporate evidence-based professional midwifery practices into public health services in Mexico?

Problem and backgroundDuring the past two decades, Mexico has launched innovative maternal health initiatives to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes, placing emphasis on the incorporation of professional midwifery practices into the healthcare system. This study explored the perceptions of healthcare providers and women using public birth care services regarding professional midwifery practices and how can the inclusion of evidence-based midwifery techniques improve the quality of service.MethodologyWe conducted a qualitative, cross-sectional study of three healthcare networks in Mexico. A content analysis was performed of data collected through 109 semi-structured interviews: 72 with healthcare providers and 37 with women.ResultsHealthcare providers and women had minimal knowledge of the competencies and skills of professional midwives. Medical personnel accepted the incorporation of some evidence-based midwifery practices. Women had experienced fear and anguish during childbirth so they considered that incorporating professional midwifery practices into maternal health services would be favourable in that it would render birth care more respectful.Discussion and conclusionsHealthcare providers are willing to consider the inclusion of some evidence-based midwifery practices in health services and regard assistance from professional midwives. They believe that structural conditions will complicate their incorporation. Although the women interviewed had experienced fear, anxiety and loneliness during childbirth, most of them admitted to feeling “safer” in a hospital (secondary-care health centre) setting where possible complications could be resolved. This perception of safety served to justify the delivery of healthcare in a manner that is inattentive to women’s needs, which go beyond biomedical issues and include emotions and the positive experience of childbirth.     

Have We Put an End to Social Promotion? Changes in School Progress among Children Aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.     

Is mass schooling essential for fertility decline to begin?

The article explores the significance of mass schooling in fertility decline. Population Council researchers have investigated these links in 17 sub-Saharan African countries. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for these countries, three indicators of the extent of mass schooling for 15-19 year olds were investigated: the percentage ever in school, the percentage completing 4 years, and the percentage completing primary education. Results showed that only six countries in which at least 90% of the 15-19 year olds have ever attended school; at least 75% in 8 of the countries had attended school for 4 years; and at least 60% in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe completed primary school. For the fertility transition, two indicators were taken into account for the 17 countries: the percent decline in fertility from 1960 or 1965 to the present, and the percent of currently unmarried women practicing contraception. 7 of the 17 countries have had fertility declines of less than 10%; 3 countries had less than 10%. In comparing the fertility data and schooling data, investigators found a strong statistical relationship between the percentage of 15-19 year olds completing 4 years of schooling and the phase of the fertility transition. However, other factors have played a role in the fertility decline in certain countries.     

How Wide Is the Income Gap in China?

Thanks to the introduction of the reform and opening up policy, China has achieved rapid economic development and recorded a significant rise in the income level of its urban and rural residents as a whole. However, the level of income varies from industry to industry, from rural to urban areas, and from region to region, and the gap is widening. Estimates show that the Gini coefficient (an economic indicator measuring disparities in personal income) in China was 0.424 in 1996, 0.456 in 1998,…