山东省人口发展与工业化城镇化的互动及其协调发展

改革开放至今,山东省的人口发展与工业化城镇化发展相互促进,共同推动了人口再生产方式的转变和工业化城镇化进程,进入了健康、合理、良性互动的发展时期。但是,人口规模持续膨胀、城镇化发展水平滞后、城镇体系结构不合理、人口分布与城镇分布矛盾等问题依然制约人口与工业化城镇化的协调发展。促进人口数量、素质、结构、分布协调发展,走新型工业化和新型城镇化道路,实现人口与工业化城镇化协调发展,是山东省不懈的追求。     

The Middle East population puzzle

An overview is provided of Middle Eastern countries on the following topics; population change, epidemiological transition theory and 4 patterns of transition in the middle East, transition in causes of death, infant mortality declines, war mortality, fertility, family planning, age and sex composition, ethnicity, educational status, urbanization, labor force, international labor migration, refugees, Jewish immigration, families, marriage patterns, and future growth. The Middle East is geographically defined as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Gaza and the West Bank, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. The Middle East's population grew very little until 1990 when the population was 43 million. Population was about doubled in the mid-1950s at 80 million. Rapid growth occurred after 1950 with declines in mortality due to widespread disease control and sanitation efforts. Countries are grouped in the following ways: persistent high fertility and declining mortality with low to medium socioeconomic conditions (Jordan, Oman, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank and Gaza), declining fertility and mortality in intermediate socioeconomic development (Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran), high fertility and declining mortality in high socioeconomic conditions (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and low fertility and mortality in average socioeconomic conditions (Israel). As birth and death rates decline, there is an accompanying shift from communicable diseases to degenerative diseases and increases in life expectancy; this pattern is reflected in the available data from Egypt, Kuwait, and Israel. High infant and child mortality tends to remain a problem throughout the Middle East, with the exception of Israel and the Gulf States. War casualties are undetermined, yet have not impeded the fastest growing population growth rate in the world. The average fertility is 5 births/woman by the age of 45. Muslim countries tend to have larger families. Contraceptive use is low in the region, with the exception of Turkey and Egypt and among urban and educated populations. More than 40% of the population is under 15 years of age. The region is about 50% Arabic (140 million). Educational status has increased, particularly for men; the lowest literacy rates for women are in Yemen and Egypt. The largest countries are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt.     

Sources of geographic mobility among professional workers: A multivariate analysis

Using the 1960 Census of Population one-in-a-thousand sample, this study investigates determinants of geographic mobility among professional, technical, and kindred workers. Multiple regression analysis reveals that age accounts for most of the explained variance in mobility, followed by income, education, regional location, sex, family size, and marital status. Additional variables-class of worker, race, nativity, professional type, size of place and industry-add no significant increments to explained variance.More specifically, low income and high education stimulate mobility and increases in family size and age slacken it. Young married professionals move the most and farthest, males somewhat more than females. Mobility is greatest in the West, least in the Northeast. Age reduces or reverses contrasts between single and married, large and small families, high and low incomes, little and much education, and residents of East and West.Factor analysis suggests that migration is part of two orderly processes-occupational career mobility and family life cycle. The bearing of these findings on the relationship between geographic mobility and social integration for the middleclass in the United States is considered.     

问题与对策：贵州“空巢老人”生活状况调查分析

伴随着社会老龄化程度日益加深而在城乡愈益增多的“空巢老人”，是新时代社会生活中的特殊弱势群体，在生活上存在着物质、生理、精神、社会关系等方面的突出问题，是健康老年化、积极老年化实现道路上的严峻挑战，已为政府、社会广泛关注。文章立足于实证调查资料，在对贵州“空巢老人”的现状特点概括基础上，从经济供养、医疗卫生、生活照料、精神慰藉、权益保障等方面对空巢老人生活状况存在问题与原因进行了总结与分析，提出了旨在使贵州“空巢老人”生活问题得到解决、生活质量得到提高，生活权益得到尊重和保障的对策建议。     

Validity and the Consequences of Test Interpretation and Use

The vast majority of measures have, at their core, a purpose of personal and social change. If test developers and users want measures to have personal and social consequences and impact, then it is critical to consider the consequences and side effects of measurement in the validation process itself. The consequential basis of test interpretation and use, as introduced in Messick’s (Educational measurement, Macmillan, New York, pp. 13–103, 1989) progressive matrix model of unified validity theory, has been misunderstood by many measurement experts, test developers, researchers, and practitioners. The purposes of this paper were to (a) review Messick’s unified view of validity and clarify his consequential basis of test interpretation and use, (b) discuss the kinds of questions evoked by value implications and social consequences and their role in construct validity and score meaning, (c) present a reframing of Messick’s model and a new model of unified validity and validation, (d) bring the concept of multilevel measures under the same validation umbrella as individual differences measures, and (e) offer some thoughts and directions for more explicit consideration of value implications, intended social consequences, and unintended side effects of legitimate test interpretation and use. This paper has implications for the interpretation, use, and validation of both individual differences and multilevel measures in education, psychology, and health contexts.     

The case of "riding bareback": sexual practices and the paradoxes of identity in the era of AIDS

Barebacking, the deliberate practice of unprotected anal intercourse, is a new reality for many gay men. How does bareback sex create, maintain, and challenge personal and collective gay identities? Drawing from the works of Foucault, Weeks, Epstein, and popular gay literature, this essay explores these intersections and conflicts. Specifically, we examine the nature of identity and the conflicts and divisions in gay communities, analyze the barebacking phenomenon and its interconnection with the paradoxes of identity, and conclude by discussing the implications for HIV/AIDS education, suggestions for future research, and ways of engaging in community dialogue.     

A preliminary inquiry into the problem of floating population in Shanghai city proper]

Shanghai's geographic location and socio-economic status make it the most attractive city for transient population from all over China. As a result of the country's rapid economic development and policy of "openness and domestic economy vitalization, "Shanghai has increased its economic, scientific, and cultural communication with other Chinese cities and foreign countries. The transient population has also increased greatly. Between January and June, 1984, the transient population reached 136,880,000. A study conducted at midnight on August 10, 1984 surveyed the transient population, with the following results: 1) Based on random sampling of data collected by the 46 Household Registration Committees, temporary visitors in Shanghai's residences totaled between 315,286 and 359,602 persons 2) Hotel residents: 125,000 3) People residing on boats: 19,000 4) Temporary residents in 10 suburban areas: 20,000 5) Other transient population consists of temporary factory and construction workers and farm produce vendors: 79,000 the total transient population at midnight on August 10, 1984 was 586,000 persons. 41.6% were visiting friends and relatives or came for medical assistance. 45.9% came from other provinces, 38.8% from local farm villages, 14.3% from nearby towns, and .93% from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. The transient population has contributed to the development, productivity, and supply of commodities to Shanghai, and increased the city's communication with other provinces, but measures should be taken to properly manage it. To better manage this problem, the following steps must be taken: 1) Survey the population -- number, composition, distribution, sources, and activity patterns; 2) Classify by profession and centralize management; 3) Establish methods for proper distribution and diversification of market and entertaining areas; and 4) Improve roads, communication, and hotel facilities.     

ASEAN projects reviewed

The ASEAN Population Expert Group met in Manila and was followed by a meeting of the ASEAN heads of population programs, during the period November 5-10, 1979. Heads of population programs from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines attended. The meetings were held to review progress-to-date on phase 1 projects and to consider the development of an expanded population program. 5 projects funded by UNFPA are reviewed in tabular form with the project, the sponsoring country, date of implementation, data analysis, and date of completion. Suggestions were made for improving and extending these projects and it was also suggested that all projects being developed and proposed should include a section on use of research. 7 new projects were proposed as phase 2 projects. The 1st, sponsored by Malaysia, deals with women in development; project 2, lead by Thailand, will investigate population movement and its effect on development; project 3, led by the Philippines, will develop and strengthen national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries; project 4, led by Indonesia, is directed towards institutional development and exchanges of personnel; project 5, led by the Philippines, will examine population and development dynamics and the man/resources balance; project 6, led by Thailand, will develop ASEAN social indicators; and project 7, led by Indonesia and Malaysia, will make a comprehensive analysis of existing medical/health care and family planning systems. It was recommended that an executive director of the proposed ASEAN population coordination unit should be appointed to expedite the recommendations of the meeting related to preparation and submission of phase 2 project proposals.     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

社会文化变迁对婚姻家庭的影响及趋势

婚姻家庭既是人类文化的积淀,是社会文化的载体,也是传递社会文化的重要组成部分。在人类发展的历史长河中,婚姻家庭与社会文化变迁密切相关,社会文化变迁以各种方式影响着婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展。以社会文化变迁为视角,通过对社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展之间的互动关系的历史考察,从婚姻家庭形式、婚姻家庭制度、婚姻家庭观念、婚姻家庭习俗、婚姻家庭关系等方面探讨人类社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化发展之间的内在关系,揭示人类社会不同历史阶段社会文化变迁及其特点对人类社会婚姻家庭建立、形成与发展的影响,探索社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化规律,探寻在当代社会文化交汇、冲突、融合加快趋势下,社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化的趋势。     

A fresh look at family planning communication

As a step toward development of a national information, education, and communication (IEC) plan, a reassessment of such efforts practiced by the agencies involved was undertaken. A paper published in 1978 by the Research Utilization Unit of the Population Information Division, Population Center Foundation, reviewed materials used and accounts of experience in conceptualizing and communicating family planning messages by 12 private and public sector agencies. The most common concepts employed by the agencies were small family size, responsible parenthood, family welfare, community and national development, birth spacing, delayed marriage, contraceptive use-effectiveness, "manliness," delayed 1st pregnancy, value and rights of children, human behavior and social environment, and population dynamics. Most of the messages were conceptualized and developed through formal and informal consultation with field staff. The need to consider the specific needs of target audiences was considered crucial, and thus decentralization of IEC production was recommended. Such decentralization has been a goal of the Philippine program since 1976, but the effort has been hampered by lack of local training and resources, and of studies to support successful implementation. Mass and mixed media approaches were found to be used by most of the agencies, although a reliance on interpersonal approaches was found to be most prevalent in rural areas. Among recommendations for policy makers were development of a systematized data base for IEC materials, regional capabilities in research and development, and studies of funding and existing resources.     

A life satisfaction measure based on judgment theory

A life satisfaction measure is developed in this paper drawn from a judgment-type theory. This measure is based on the theoretical notion of life satisfaction being a function of a comparison between perceived life accomplishments and a set of evoked standards. These standards are classified as to their derivative sources (e.g., the life accomplishments of relatives, friends, associates, past experience, self-concept of strengths and weaknesses, and average person in a similar position) and different forms (e.g., standards based on ideal, expected, deserved, minimum tolerable, and predicted outcomes). Two studies were conducted on the elderly to ascertain the internally consistent and possessing construct validity correlations through high and internally consistent and possessing construct validity correlations through high and positive correlations with the Delighted-Terrible Life Satisfaction Scale; through significant and positive correlations with cognitive age, income, employment, education, marital status, social contact, activity, religiosity, morale, television viewership, and selfrated health; and through nonsignificant correlations with chronological age, gender, and parenthood.     

结婚、生育对工资的影响研究 ——基于性别工资差距角度

随着技术进步和女性人力资本水平的提高,男性和女性的劳动生产率差异逐渐缩小,但性别工资差距在我国是否缩小?全面开放的"二胎政策"又是否加深了女性就业困境?本文使用CGSS 2015数据,从结婚、生育角度出发,运用工具变量法、分位数回归、Oaxaca-blinder分解等方法考察婚育事件对劳动力工资的影响及其作用机制,探讨婚育视角下的性别工资差距问题,提出相应对策建议以促进性别公平。研究首先通过对城镇劳动力的婚姻状态和生育情况与工资性收入进行实证分析,发现在控制了个人特征、人力资本、职业性质和地区等因素后,性别工资差距仍显著存在且婚育事件拉大了该差距。其中结婚使男女劳动力的工资水平均有所提高,但由于原始工资水平的差异和溢价大小的不同,性别工资差距被拉大;生育使男性工资增长,女性工资缩水,这同样加大了性别工资差距。其次基于分位数回归结果进行Oaxaca-blinder平均工资差异分解,结果显示随着收入的增加,性别工资差距在缩小,但婚姻和生育对此差距的解释力度却越来越大且相对稳定。即低收入群体的工资差距较大,但婚育对该差距的解释力度较小,相反高收入群体的性别工资差距较小,但婚育对该差距的贡献却很大。因此,缩小婚姻和生育造成的性别工资差距、消除性别歧视、保障女性职业的可持续发展是亟待解决的问题。     

Exploring the Quality of Life of People in North Eastern and Southern Thailand

The assumption that development brings not only material prosperity but also a better overall quality of life lies at the heart of the development project. Against this, critics assert that development can undermine social cohesion and threaten cultural integrity. Rarely, however, is the impact of development on well-being rigourously analysed using empirical data. This is what the Wellbeing in Developing Countries Group at the University of Bath aims to do drawing on fieldwork carried out in four developing countries, which addresses the themes of resources, needs, agency and structure, and subjective Quality of life (QoL). The first phase of the QoL research in Thailand aimed to explore the categories and components of quality of life for people from different backgrounds and locations with the aim of developing methods for QoL assessment in the third phase of the WeD QoL research. The study presents data obtained from rural and peri-urban sites in Southern and Northeastern Thailand (two villages in Songkhla and three in Khon Kaen, Mukdaharn, and Roi-et). Participants were divided into six groups by gender and age, and were divided again by religion (Buddhist and Muslim) and wealth status in the South. Data collection was conducted between October and December 2004 using focus group discussions, semi-structured interviews, and the Person Generated Index. Content analysis was used for data analysis. The use of a qualitative approach enabled the gathering of empirical data that reflects the sources of difficulty and happiness in the lives of participants. Respondents identified 26 aspects to their quality of life, including family relations, health and longevity, income and having money, jobs, housing, education, debt, and so on. The results reveal clear similarities and differences in the role of traditions, religious beliefs, and values in the lives of people living in remote rural or peri-urban areas in Northeastern and Southern Thailand. These results, together with the findings from Peru, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, will inform the rest of the WeD research and be used to develop measures to assess the quality of life of people living in developing countries.     

Satisfaction and happiness in a rural northern resource community

Satisfaction and happiness with life as a whole are analyzed in terms of satisfaction with health, finances, family, job, friends, housing, area, recreation, religion, self-esteem, transportation and government services for males and females. Patterns of influential variables differ for males and females. The perceived gap between what one has and wants is a better predictor of satisfaction than the gap between what one has and thinks similar others have, and the gap between what one has and the best one has had in the past. Domain-to-satisfaction and happiness explanations are combined with gap theoretic explanations to reveal the psychological dynamics of judgments of satisfaction for males and females for the 12 domains and global well-being.     

Family planning as preventive health measure

The link between health and family planning efforts in the Philippines goes back to the beginnings of the National Population Program. In this interview, Dr. Dumindin of the Ministry of Health (MOh) discusses the impact of family planning on health. The family planning program of the MOH, since its inception in 1970, has undergone expansion and taken new initiatives and directions to meet the changing needs of the target clientele. Family planning information, education, and motivation is provided and maintained during routine prenatal, natal, and postnatal clinic and field activities. As of January 1986, the MOH had a total of 2100 clinics--rural health units, medical centers, hospitals, mobile clinics, and special clinics--all over the country. It is estimated that the Ministry's family planning activities have averted around a million births. It is hoped to extend the coverage of the programs to areas that have not been reached before, through further community involvement, by enlisting the participation of more workers in the community, training them on integrated health and family planning services, setting up more service facilities and clinic extensions, and by improving contraceptive use-effectiveness. Hopefully, the Philippine people will become less program-dependent and more self-motivated, and they will recognize the need for birth spacing, birth limiting, and total health care--not as suggested from the outside, but coming from within themselves.     

新疆维吾尔族人口离婚率民族及地区差异比较分析

本文根据历届人口普查资料及有关调查和文献资料,对改革开放以来新疆维吾尔族人口离婚率的变动趋势同哈萨克、回、蒙古、柯尔克孜、塔吉克等新疆几个主要少数民族人口的离婚率变动及其地区差异性进行综合比较分析,探索维吾尔族人口离婚率的变动规律性,并提出相应的对策与建议。     

The ABC of demographic behaviour: how the interplays of alleles, brains, and contexts over the life course should shape research aimed at understanding population processes

This paper proposes core innovations in the strategy of research on demographic behaviour. One aim is a shift of attention away from events and towards a focus on dynamic processes and their interplay: away from a preoccupation with marriage and divorce, births, deaths, migrations, and household structure towards a broader perspective that takes account of partnership and intimacy, parenthood, potential and well-being, position in society and space, and personal ties. Another aim is a much closer engagement with genetics, neuroscience, psychology, and behavioural economics. A third aim is a strategy that pays more attention to pathways within the individual, to the processes entailed when the individual interacts with various contexts, and to progressions that involve the interplay of the pathways and processes through the life course. These shifts of emphasis, which have already begun to occur, require a systematic reassessment of priorities for research on demographic behaviour.     

Diet,mortality and life expectancy A cross national analysis

There are numerous reasons why mortality and life expectancy vary between countries. Epidemiological studies seem to indicate that dictary variations may be among them. A sample of 51 countries studied with data from the International Comparisons Project and other sources, shows that after controlling for nutrient intake, consumption of medical goods and services, income distribution, weather, and literacy, countries with more meat and poultry in their diet have lower life expectancies after age five. The results for infant mortality and child death between one and five indicate that a more animal-intensive diet may be actually be beneficial, especially if fish consumption is increased and meat and poultry consumption reduced.I thank Jere Behrman, David Crawford, Anil Deolalikar, the Managing Editor, two anonymous referees, and especially Samuel Preston for valuable comments, and Alan Heston and Robert Summers for being generous with their time and their data. Financial support was provided by a Compton Foundation Fellowship. All errors remain my responsibility.