政府统计方兴未艾 ——纪念新中国政府统计机构成立60周年

 本文在探讨政府统计的起源与发展过程的基础上,归纳出政府统计的本质就是关于国情国势的政治算术,并且在各国具有许多共性。时至今日,虽然各国的政府统计都取得了很大的成就,但人类需求的不断变化导致政府统计值得进一步探讨和研究的问题还很多,任重道远,方兴未艾。新中国60年的政府统计工作贡献巨大,但面对新的形势还存在不少问题,应进一步深化改革,着力在四个“一”上下功夫。     

统计信用与统计数据质量研究

 统计数据质量问题严重影响着政府决策和社会公信力。本文运用博弈论分析方法,分析了声誉资本大小、失信惩戒力度、报假收益及监督力度是影响统计数据失真的重要因素,证明了引入统计信用可以在有限的成本下防范数据失真,提出了完善统计信用惩戒制度是统计信用发挥作用的制度基础。     

从外部监督入手解决统计数据质量问题的努力

 以企业会计信息披露为镜子可以发现,要保证政府统计数据的质量,特别需要外部监督,并且需要就整个统计数据生产过程进行外部监督。为此,需要依法监督,并要结合统计数据生产的特点,将统计执法落到实处。《统计违法违纪行为处分规定》的意义正在于此。     

社会秩序与安全统计中的几个问题

一、社会秩序与安全统计的重要性与特殊性社会秩序与安全,是社会统计的一个重要领域。大多数国家在制定社会指标体系时包括联合国在内,都把社会秩序与安全专门列为一类。社会秩序与安全,广义地说,是指一定社会联系与社会关系的总的稳定状态;狭义地说,是指社会成员和团体的人身与财产安全不受侵害的保障程度,是社会中的个体的一种基本的权力与需要。与生理需要一样,安全是人的最     

信息、激励与统计决策

信息、激励与统计决策王国成为了认识和解决社会主义市场经济建设中出现的新的理论和实践问题,笔者曾撰文①探讨了市场经济条件下非对称信息的形成机理、统计特征和获取方法。继之,本文根据非对称信息较严格的定义,针对我国的具体情况,就非对称信息的分布类型及在激励...     

分组法与统计数据处理

统计数据是一种广泛使用的重要数据,几乎每个行业、每个单位都有统计数据处理工作。为了实现统计数据处理的计算机化,结合计算机技术,对统计数据处理进行系统分析,是有实际意义的。本文试图充当统计人员与计算机程序人员之间的媒介,以期共同探讨,使统计数据处理系统的建立,有充分的前期准备,使系统设计相对于计算机软,硬件保持一定的独立性,可以由不同的人员来进行不同阶段的工作;使物理实现方案,能够适应现有的设备条件。为此,我们将统计数据处理的逻辑功能和计算机的物理实现加以区分。     

加快改革国家统计制度 切实提高统计数据质量——在全国统计工作会议上的讲话

加快改革国家统计制度切实提高统计数据质量——在全国统计工作会议上的讲话刘洪一、当前统计工作的形势和统计改革的紧迫任务９０年代以来,统计部门在邓小平南方谈话和党的十四大精神的指引和鼓舞下,解放思想,开拓进取,在统计改革和建设方面都取得了明显成绩,为党政...     

我国政府统计抽样调查的回顾与思考

 经过多年的发展,抽样调查已经成为我国政府统计的主要方法之一,并且得到越来越广泛的应用。本文对我国政府抽样调查的发展史进行了详细地回顾和总结,从体制方面和技术方面分析了我国政府现行抽样调查存在的问题,并结合实际情况提出了相应的改革建议。     

隋唐的田制、税法与户籍统计

隋唐的田制、税法与户籍统计于越人隋唐时均田制,是由北朝演化而来的。但隋以前,均田制仅推行于北方。隋以后,始推行到全国。《隋书·食货志》：“（高祖）及颁新令,制人五家为保,保有长。保五为闾,闾四为族,皆有正。畿外置里正,比阎正,党长比族正,以相检察焉。...     

Aggregate statistical data: models for their representation

The paper gives a review of a number of data models for aggregate statistical data which have appeared in the computer science literature in the last ten years.After a brief introduction to the data model in general, the fundamental concepts of statistical data are introduced. These are called statistical objects because they are complex data structures (vectors, matrices, relations, time series, etc) which may have different possible representations (e.g. tables, relations, vectors, pie-charts, bar-charts, graphs, and so on). For this reason a statistical object is defined by two different types of attribute (a summary attribute, with its own summary type and with its own instances, called summary data, and the set of category attributes, which describe the summary attribute). Some conceptual models of statistical data (CSM, SDM4S), some semantic models of statistical data (SCM, SAM*, OSAM*), and some graphical models of statistical data (SUBJECT, GRASS, STORM) are also discussed.     

Statistical models for e-learning data

In this paper we analyse a real e-learning dataset derived from the e-learning platform of the University of Pavia. The dataset concerns an online learning environment with in-depth teaching materials. The main focus of this paper is to supply a measure of the relative importance of the exercises (test) at the end of each training unit; to build predictive models of student’s performance and finally to personalize the e-learning platform. The methodology employed is based on nonparametric statistical methods for kernel density estimation and generalized linear models and generalized additive models for predictive purposes.     

The effects of data input errors on subsequent statistical inference

Data input errors can potentially affect statistical inferences, but little research has been published to date on this topic. In the present paper, we report the effect of data input errors on the statistical inferences drawn about population parameters in an empirical study involving 280 students from two Polish universities, namely the Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW and the University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszow. We found that 28% of the students committed at least one data error. While some of these errors were small and did not have any real effect, a few of them had substantial effects on the statistical inferences drawn about the population parameters.     

统计虚假成因及治理对策研究

《统计法》已实施20余年,但统计数据虚假现象仍然十分严重。文章从统计体制、统计方法、执法缺陷等方面探析了统计数据虚假成因及治理对策。同时,现行《统计法》亟需修改完善。     

An extended association rule mining strategy for gene relationship discovery from microarray data

DNA microarrays allow for measuring expression levels of a large number of genes between different experimental conditions and/or samples. Association rule mining (ARM) methods are helpful in finding associational relationships between genes. However, classical association rule mining (CARM) algorithms extract only a subset of the associations that exist among different binary states; therefore can only infer part of the relationships on gene regulations. To resolve this problem, we developed an extended association rule mining (EARM) strategy along with a new way of the association rule definition. Compared with the CARM method, our new approach extracted more frequent genesets from a public microarray data set. The EARM method discovered some biologically interesting association rules that were not detected by CARM. Therefore, EARM provides an effective tool for exploring relationships among genes.     

Web‐based resources to assist the statistical analysis and presentation of data

The intention of this article is to highlight sources of web‐based reference material, courses and software that will aid statisticians and researchers. The article includes websites that: assist in writing a protocol or proposal; link to online statistical textbooks; and provide statistical calculators or links to free statistical software and other guidance documents. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On selection procedures for positive exponential family distributions based on type-I censored data

We investigate the problem of selecting the best population from positive exponential family distributions based on type-I censored data. A Bayes rule is derived and a monotone property of the Bayes selection rule is obtained. Following that property, we propose an early selection rule. Through this early selection rule, one can terminate the experiment on a few populations early and possibly make the final decision before the censoring time. An example is provided in the final part to illustrate the use of the early selection rule.     

政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的若干构想——基于欧洲统计系统的实践经验

通过用户满意度调查来测量用户对统计数据质量水平的主观感知,为统计数据质量评估与控制提供了一条重要的信息渠道。基于对政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的社会背景及其必要性的分析,借鉴在国际同领域实践中起步较早的、较具代表性的欧洲统计系统用户满意度调查的相关实践经验,对中国政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的制度保障、目标定位与内容设计以及调查组织实施等方面的实践要领进行了探讨。