Freezing the Master Production Schedule Under Demand Uncertainty

Managing the trade-off between achieving a stable master production schedule (MPS) and being responsive to changes in customer requirements is a difficult problem in many firms where providing a high level of customer service is viewed as an important competitive factor. One alternative for managing this trade-off is to freeze an agreed portion of the MPS. This paper investigates the impact of adjustments in the design parameters of MPS freezing methods on two performance measures (MPS lot-sizing cost and stability) under stochastic demand conditions in a rolling planning horizon environment given a service level target. Simulation experiments are reported which indicate that many of the conclusions regarding the design of MPS freezing methods obtained under deterministic demand conditions hold under stochastic demand.     

Order Promising and the Master Production Schedule*

Previous research on material requirements planning (MRP) systems has rarely considered the impact of the master production scheduling method used to promise customer orders and to allocate production capacity. Based on a simulation study of an MRP environment, we show that the correct selection of a master production schedule (MPS) method depends on the variance of end-item demand. In addition, we find evidence that the effectiveness of a particular MPS method can be enhanced by holding buffer inventory at the same level in the product structure as in the MPS.     

The Integration of Cost and Capacity Considerations in Material Requirements Planning Systems

Within the sequential framework of material requirements planning (MRP), a master production schedule (MPS) of end-item production is prepared and a bill-of-material processor is used to convert the MPS into a plan for needed subassemblies, parts, and materials. This study examines the impact of different procedures for considering inventory-related costs and capacity limitations in the two phases of planning: master production scheduling and bill-of-material (BOM) processing. A total of nine procedures are considered for integrating the two phases of planning. The results indicate that the integrated procedures have a significant effect on the trade-offs among inventory-related costs, work load variations, over/under time costs, and excess work loads. Further, the results suggest that the method used to develop the MPS has the primary influence on these trade-offs, but the method used by the BOM processor can sometimes have a moderating effect.     

AN EVALUATION OF FORECAST ERROR IN MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULING FOR MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEMS.

Typical forecast-error measures such as mean squared error, mean absolute deviation and bias generally are accepted indicators of forecasting performance. However, the eventual cost impact of forecast errors on system performance and the degree to which cost consequences are explained by typical error measures have not been studied thoroughly. The present paper demonstrates that these typical error measures often are not good predictors of cost consequences in material requirements planning (MRP) settings. MRP systems rely directly on the master production schedule (MPS) to specify gross requirements. These MRP environments receive forecast errors indirectly when the errors create inaccuracies in the MPS. Our study results suggest that within MRP environments the predictive capabilities of forecast-error measures are contingent on the lot-sizing rule and the product components structure When forecast errors and MRP system costs are coanalyzed, bias emerges as having reasonable predictive ability. In further investigations of bias, loss functions are evaluated to explain the MRP cost consequences of forecast errors. Estimating the loss functions of forecast errors through regression analysis demonstrates the superiority of loss functions as measures over typical forecast error measures in the MPS.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

Freezing the master production schedule in multilevel material requirements planning systems under deterministic demand

This paper extends the studies by Sridharan, Berry, and Udayabhanu from single-level MPS systems to multilevel material requirements planning (MRP) systems, and examines the impact of product structure, lot-sizing rules and cost parameters upon the selection of MPS freezing parameters under deterministic demand. A model is built to simulate the master production scheduling and material requirements planning operations in a make-to-order environment. The results show that all the MPS freezing parameters studied have a significant impact upon total inventory costs and schedule instability in multilevel MRP systems. First, the order-based freezing method is preferable to the period-based method. Secondly, the study finds that increasing the freezing proportion reduces both total inventory costs and schedule instability. This finding contradicts the finding by Sridharan et al. in single-level systems. Thirdly, the study finds that a higher replanning periodicity results in both lower total inventory cost and lower schedule instability. The study also indicates that the product structure and lot-sizing rules do not significantly influence the selection of MPS freezing parameters in a practical sense under most situations. However, the cost parameter seems to significantly influence the selection of replanning periodicity.     

THE MEASUREMENT AND OPERATING BENEFITS OF COMPONENT PART COMMONALITY

The product structure is a key input to a material requirements planning system. Yet, the effect of alternate product structure designs on system performance is not well understood. Analytical measures are needed to accurately relate product-structure characteristics to total cost and delivery performance. A new analytical measure of product structure called the degree of commonality index is defined in this paper. The degree of commonality index can be applied to single end items, product families, entire product lines, or to any level of product structure. This study suggests that component part commonality, as measured by the degree of commonality index, has a significant effect on system performance. For example, company standardization programs that increase the degree of component part commonality result in manufacturing cost reductions. The degree of commonality index provides a way to directly relate the degree of component part commonality to various dependent variables such as total cost, work center load, and delivery performance.     

A Model for Master Production Scheduling in Uncertain Environments

In uncertain environments, the master production schedule (MPS) is usually developed using a rolling schedule. When utilizing a rolling schedule, the MPS is replanned periodically and a portion of the MPS is frozen in each planning cycle. The cost performance of a rolling schedule depends on three decisions: the choice of the replanning interval (R), which determines how often the MPS should be replanned; the choice of the frozen interval (F), which determines how many periods the MPS should be frozen in each planning cycle; and the choice of the forecast window (T), which is the time interval over which the MPS is determined using newly updated forecast data. This paper uses an analytical approach to study the master production scheduling process in uncertain environments without capacity constraints, where the MPS is developed using a rolling schedule. It focuses on the choices of F, R, and T for the MPS. A conceptual framework that includes all important MPS time intervals is described. The effects of F, R, and T on system costs, which include the forecast error, MPS change, setup, and inventory holding costs, are also explored. Finally, a mathematical model for the MPS is presented. This model approximates the average system cost as a function of F, R, T, and several environmental factors. It can be used to estimate the associated system costs for any combination of F, R, and T.     

DESIGNING INSPECTION STRATEGIES FOR UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS

This paper considers the problems of designing inspection strategies for production systems terms in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The framework for determining information priorities to support inspection system planning is presented in the contaxt of a generic production system that encompasses the characteristics of many real-world serial production systems. The impact on the design decision of five key variables is considered: quality of producton processes, quality of inspection procedures, penalty cost for undetected defective units, relative cost of improving process vs. inspection, and shape of the cost functions for process and inspection enhancement. The framework for analysis involves varying factors over two or three orders of magnitude to determine optimal inspection strategies across a wide range of environments These results are used to compare design decisions made in the presence of environmental uncertainty using expected-opportunity-cost and minimization-of-maximum-opportunity-cost approaches. Design strategies are identified for situations ranging from complete lack of knowledge about the environment through increasing levels of information. Information-gathering priorities are established, and the impact on the design decision of this additional information is assayed.     

FREQUENCY OF REPLANNING IN A ROLLING HORIZON MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULE FOR A PROCESS INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT: A CASE STUDY

This study addresses the problem of replanning frequency for a rolling horizon master production schedule (MPS) in a process industry environment under demand certainty. The major contribution of this paper is the demonstration of how the appropriate replanning frequency for a MPS can be determined under the conditions of minimum batch-size production restrictions in a rolling planning horizon setting. In addition, the problem environment for this study is an actual MPS operation that includes features such as multiple production lines, multiple products, capacity constraints, minimum inventory requirements, and multiple goals. Actual data from a paint company are used to determine the appropriate replanning frequency for a rolling horizon MPS. Results indicate that a 2-month replanning frequency was the best at this firm because of the significant cost savings it provided when compared to actual company performance and the other replanning intervals.     

A modified hierarchical production planning system integrated with MRP: A case study

In this paper, a hierarchical planning system is proposed which integrates aggregate capacity planning with MRP. This system is to be implemented in a metal box manufacturing company which multi-user MRP system covering manufacturing activities as well as procurement sales order processing and accounting systems. The hierarchical planning system includes a medium-range aggregate planning model adapted to the firm's requirements and strategies. The model consists of a mathematical formulation which covers labour capacity has already installed a constraints and includes certain cost estimations in the objective function. The planning horizon of the medium range planning is taken as twelve months in order to cover sales seasonality. The aggregate production quantities resulting from the optimized medium-range planning model are disaggregated according to procedures already found in the literature. Furthermore, the theoretical infeasibilities pertaining to the disaggregation procedures are also resolved in an heuristic manner. Using the latter modified disaggregation procedure, a feasible disaggregated plan is generated for the whole planning horizon. The proposed plan is compared with the current production policy of the firm and it is observed that the proposed plan leads to backorder reduction.     

An Experimental Analysis of Capacity-Sensitive Setup Parameters for MRP Lot Sizing

Most material requirements planning (MRP) systems apply standard costing (absorption costing) approaches to define setup costs that are used as fixed (time invariant) setup parameters in single-level lot-sizing methods. This paper presents a computationally simple approach for estimating more appropriate setup parameters based on estimates of work-center shadow prices. These setup parameters then are used in traditional single-level MRP lot-sizing procedures. The shadow price of capacity at each work center is calculated as the increase in the overall inventory carrying cost for each additional hour of capacity lost to setups. The opportunity cost of a setup for an order subsequently is determined based on the routing information for each order and is used by traditional MRP lot-sizing procedures to calculate lot sizes. A simulation experiment compares the performance period order quantity lot sizing with capacity-sensitive setup parameters with the fixed accounting-based setup parameters. The simulation replicates the planning and control functions of a typical MRP system. The results of the experiment show that capacity-sensitive setup parameters can make significant reductions in both carrying cost and lateness and can achieve many of the benefits of optimized production technology in the context of an MRP system.     

Concurrent consideration of product design,process planning and production planning activities

In manufacturing engineering, product design, process planning and production planning activities are often considered independently. However, in order to effectively respond to changes in business situations, such as changes in demand forecast, product mix and technology, it is desirable to consider them concurrently. For this purpose, a large-scale linear programming model has been developed. The model considers minimization of the sum of processing cost, late shipment cost and inventory holding cost as the objective, and concurrently selects product designs, and generates process plans and production plans. The number of columns in the formulation can be large and, hence, an efficient column generation scheme is developed to solve the model. The model and solution procedure are illustrated with examples.     

A DISCRETE PRODUCTION SWITCHING RULE FOR AGGREGATE PLANNING

Aggregate planning (AP) is a necessary activity for manufacturing and services alike. A shift toward high-volume batch and continuous flow processes within American manufacturing has given rise to increasing numbers of crew-loaded facilities. A majority of AP approaches incorporate continuous decision variables and require frequent adjustments to both production and work-force settings. Despite the availability and diversity of these approaches, few significant applications have been reported. This paper presents the detailed development of a discrete AP switching rule that can be applied to a variety of cost environments. Inventory costs are estimated using an interval approach rather than traditional point estimates. The model allows incorporation of overtime options and is interactive in nature. Decision variables from the model can be disaggregated and linked directly to lower-level planning activities. Actual results of model implementation are reported. An overview of the model's incorporation into the larger context of hierarchical production planning is found in [21].     

A Comparative Analysis of Master Production Scheduling Techniques for Assemble-To-Order Products

This paper studies the master production scheduling (MPS) activity of manufacturing firms that produce assemble-to-order (ATO) products. It describes four techniques for master scheduling ATO products: end-product bills, modular bills, super bills, and percentage bills. These procedures are compared in terms of the percentage of customer orders delivered late, the mean tardiness of customer order deliveries, and the total cost of inventory using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of an MPS technique is affected by the level of uncertainty of the end products' demands and the degree of component commonality in the product structure. In particular, modular bills produce the highest customer service level and super bills produce the lowest total inventory cost under most operating conditions. The conclusions also suggest that the choice of a particular MPS technique is often a compromise between the benefits of improved MPS performance and the costs of implementing and executing the MPS system.     

考虑故障停机的生产控制与维修计划联合决策模型

通过生产控制与维修计划协同决策,降低生产成本。首先描述生产过程,分析各项费用。其次,建立了考虑生产过程失控、故障率和故障停时间的生产过程控制、生产计划优化和维修管理联合优化决策的模型。通过模型求解,联合制定出生产过程检查策略、生产计划（经济生产批量、生产批次）以及维修计划（PM间隔期）,实现单位时间内总费用最低的目标。再次,案例研究,分析生产过程失控、故障率和故障停机时间对于经济生产批量、生产过程检查策略和生产系统维修计划的影响。该模型从理论上解决了生产过程控制、生产计划优化和维修管理联合优化决策难题,对于指导企业制定生产计划和生产系统的检修计划,进而提高产品质量、降低生产成本、确保准时交货都具有指导意义和实用价值。     

The Production of Several Items in a Single Facility with Linearly Changing Demand Rates

In this paper we extend the ELSP model to allow for linearly changing demand rates over a fixed planning horizon. This extension of the ELSP research provides a model that can be used in coordinating the production and marketing planning activities in a firm. The model allows the user to evaluate the impact of changes in product demand on production costs and customer service. We solve the model using a standard nonlinear programming package (MINOS) and show through examples based on actual production data how the model can be used to support coordinated production and marketing planning.     

MRP system performance under lumpy demand environments

Material requirements planning (MRP) systems are deemed to deal with master schedules with lumpy demand patterns better than any other production scheduling system. Past studies have advocated important advantages of using MRP systems. The objective of this paper is to look into the impact of patterns of demand lumpiness on the performance of MRP systems by a simulation study. Results show that there is an important threshold point in terms of degree of lumpiness at which MRP system performance starts to deteriorate in the operating conditions considered. If master production schedules (MPS) can be controlled by manufacturers, MRP users should exercise caution to introduce demand lumpiness in MPS to improve system performance. If not, MRP users should then examine the given lumpiness and choose an appropriate lot-sizing rule that has been shown to take advantage of the effect of demand lumpiness.     

Decision support for multi-family aggregate production planning

Aggregate production planning decisions are inter mediate range decisions that can have a significant impact on both productivity and profitability. In this paper, we examine an interactive computer-based method that provides decision support for the aggregate planner. The proposed approach combines the judgement of the planner with the optimization of subproblems to arrive at an effective solution for multi-family aggregate production planning problems. In the interactive approach, the planner exercises direct control over sensitive workforce levels and production capacities. A network flow sub-problem solver is used to generate optimal production plans and inventory levels given the user-specified production capacities. Decision aids are provided to help the planner achieve a cost-effective solution that is consistent with judgement concerning workforce levels. Computational testing on five test problems indicates that very cost-effective solutions can be obtained. The results of applying the interactive method to a real-world problem are also reported.     

A Decision Support System for Production/ Distribution Planning in Continuous Manufacturing

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for managing production/distribution planning in a continuous manufacturing environment. The vendor has multiple plants and distribution centers (DCs). The trading partners have widely varying independent demand patterns. The DSS is designed for use in a multiproduct environment with overlapping raw materials and processing requirements. The production and distribution lead times at plants may span multiple planning periods. The impact of any manual override of a suggested solution can also be evaluated. The DSS is based on a linear programming model with a rolling horizon and was originally designed for a large process industry. Results of a pilot implementation using actual data are also presented, which show potential for significant savings for the company.