THE DECLINE OF OVER-TIME COMPARABILITY IN THE NATIONAL ELECTION STUDIES

The National Election Studies conducted by the University ofMichigan Survey Research Center and Center for Political Studiesprovide the best data set for studying the political attitudesand behavior of the American electorate. The American NationalElection Studies Data Sourcebook, which complies NES surveyresults between 1952 and 1978, demonstrates the extent to whichthese surveys facilitate over-time analysis. This article usesthe Sourcebook as a baseline and shows that there has been asubstantial decline in the over-time comparability of itemsmeasuring public policy preferences and of items measuring supportfor the political system.     

The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics

I cross-validate the 2004 general election electorate's demographicprofile available from voter registration files, the media consortium'sNational Election Poll or exit poll, and the Current PopulationSurvey within selected states. I find voter files and CurrentPopulation Survey to be in general agreement, but the exit pollreports an electorate that is younger and composed of more minorities.All three confirm a pronounced pro-woman turnout gap.     

Where Do Female Conservatives Stand? A Cross-National Analysis of the Issue Positions and Ideological Placement of Female Right-Wing Candidates

ABSTRACT

Many right-wing parties have attempted to increase their share of female representatives to appeal to women in the electorate. Underlying this is the assumption that women will offer a distinct perspective to the party. Using a comparative dataset of male and female candidates of Conservative and Christian Democratic parties across 21 European and Anglo-Saxon countries, we show this is the case. Female candidates in right-wing parties are less right wing than male candidates, both in terms of their overall ideology and their issue positioning. Perhaps as a consequence, female candidates perceive a greater distance to their own party than male candidates.     

Economic Partisan Advantages in Congressional Contests: 1938-1978

Two broad categories of variables have been used to explainthe dynamics of national forces on congressional elections:presidential and party-related forces. Present research hasemphasized presidential forces in analyzing congressional electionoutcomes, especially with respect to the impact of economicconditions, but this emphasis has resulted in a lack of attentionto other variables that are linked to the major parties ratherthan incumbent presidents. Meaningful empirical relationshipsmay have been inadvertently disregarded because they contradictexpectations derived from an "incumbency hypothesis." This articlesuggests that there are party-related forces operating on congressionalelections, aside from party affiliation, that provide consistentand long-term electoral advantages to candidates of the parties,irrespective of which party controls the presidency. We arguethat the economic policy emphases and historical records ofthe major parties interact with economic conditions such asunemployment and inflation to yield advantages that accrue tothe candidates at election time; these effects are termed economicpartisan advantages.     

Intersectionality and Engagement among the LGBTQ+ Community

ABSTRACT

As the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+) community makes progress toward attaining equal rights, a growing body of scholarly attention is focusing on this increasingly visible minority group. Yet studies of attitudes among LGBTQ+ Americans themselves remain limited because of small sample sizes and scarce data. As a result, scholarly work on LGBTQ+ issues is almost entirely devoted to measuring straight America’s opinions. In this study we administer both a survey and an experiment to a sample of LGBTQ+ Americans. Our findings are twofold. First, we demonstrate that intersectionality has important effects on attitudes within the LGBTQ+ community. Specifically, LGBTQ+ respondents who are at the intersection of multiple minority groups display lower levels of political engagement. Second, we test the mobilizing influence of out-group versus in-group cues on LGBTQ+ Americans. In line with previous work, we find that government action to support a threatening out-group engages LGBTQ+ Americans to support in-group candidates, whereas government action to support their own in-group has a significantly smaller effect. These findings help us to understand an increasingly politically active subset of the electorate and, more broadly, shed light on the influence of intersectionality on political attitudes.     

The Use of Polling in Congressional Campaigns

This study examines successful 1974 congressional campaignsthat used public opinion polling. The primary focus of the researchwas on where and how polling was used in the campaign and thefactors that influenced its use. Polling was most common inhighly competitive, well-financed races involving younger, lesspolitically experienced candidates. Surveys were typically begunquite early in the campaign and emphasized candidate standingand determined which issues were most salient to the electorate.The way polling was used was influenced primarily by party affiliation,the hiring of a professional polster and campaign expenditures     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

I Am Woman,Hear Me Tweet! Gender Differences in Twitter Use among Congressional Candidates

This study synthesizes two theoretical literatures to explain gender differences in Twitter usage and effectiveness among US Congressional candidates. The first suggests that candidates in perceived disadvantaged positions, females in this case, innovate to improve their chances of success, and the second, that female politicians often adopt stereotypically masculine behaviors to be successful. On the basis of these theories, we hypothesize and confirm that female candidates are more likely than males to integrate Twitter into their campaigns, but our results are less conclusive regarding a difference in the likelihood that females use negative campaigning tactics via Twitter. Our results also indicate that those females who use Twitter more than their male counterparts tended to do better electorally, but this difference is conditional. Female Republican candidates who tweeted more increased their vote share, but the opposite is true for Democrats. We speculate that this differential effect may be a product of different audiences for social media in each party’s electorate.     

Candidates on Television: The 1972 Electoral Debates in West Germany

This article explores the nature and effects of the campaigndebates held in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1972. Thefindings indicate that the debates were bruising personal battlesthat emphasized issues and ethics. While they did not have anydirect effects on either candidate perceptions or issue salience,there is evidence that the debates may have had some importantindirect effects on the electorate's ultimate voting choices.     

GALLUP AND FORTUNE POLLS

This section contains a compilation, topically arranged, ofpoll results released by the American Institute of Public Opinion,by Fortune, and by the Canadian Institute of Public Opinion.The AIPO results cover the period from October through December1941. (Previous aipo questions were reported in the July 1938,October 1939, and all subsequent issues of the QUARTERLY.) TheFortune questions are those which appeared in the October andDecember issues of the magazine, together with those taken fromthe Fortune Management Poll which appeared in the November issue.(Previous Fortune questions were reported in the March 1940and all subsequent issues of the QUARTERLY.) Releases from theCanadian Institute of Public Opinion are included for the firsttime. (The first cn>o report was issued November 29, 1941.) Under each topic, all of the Institute data are given in chronologicalorder, then all of theFortune material, also in chronologicalsequence. Dates appearing in connection with AIPO questionsare those carried in the date lines of Institute releases tosubscribing newspapers; dates following Fortune questions indicatethe issue of the magazine in which the information appeared.Institute questions are designated by AIPO; Fortune questionsby FOR; "DK" stands for "don't know"; "no op." for "no opinion." In considering these poll data, the reader should bear in mindcertain salient points of reference set forth on pages 75 and76 of the March 1940 issue of the QUARTERLY. The QUARTERLY wishesto express its appreciation to George Gallup and the AmericanInstitute of Public Opinion and to the editors of Fortune andElmo Roper for their cooperation in making these survey resultsavailable in convenient form to other students of public opinion.     

Models of representation,Mobilization and Turnout: The Election of the Foreign Citizens' Council of the Province of Bologna

The Foreign Citizens' Council of the Province of Bologna is a consultative, elected body that the Province has implemented to give representation to the non‐EU population, given the absence of local voting rights for these migrants in Italy. This work analyses the models of political representation implicit in the electoral rules of the council and in the organization of the main competing lists in the election, and, through the analysis of electoral data and 32 in‐depth interviews with the candidates, the effect the different models had. While the vote seems to have been mostly intra‐national, cross‐national lists were the most successful. The different levels of turnout among the electorate suggest that the vote was based on mobilization rather than on trust in the political system, and that the analyses that link associational density with electoral participation pose some theoretical and methodological problems in this field.

Policy Implications

• Migrants' participation policy is always based on implicit political models of participation that should always be made explicit and examined before implementation.
• There is always a plurality of political preferences for different models of participation in the migrant population, that should be explored and accommodated.
• The number of associations in existence should not be used as an indicator of a strong civil society as largely as it is presently.

     

Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections

This article focuses on voting systems that (i) aim to select the Condorcet candidate in the common case where one exists and (ii) impede manipulation by exploiting voter knowledge of electorate preferences. The systems are relatively simple, both mathematically and for voter understanding, and are fully workable for large-scale elections. Their designated equilibrium strategies, under which voters vote sincerely, involve discerning the top one or two candidates in the preference ordering of the electorate. One set of systems uses its ballot to obtain voters’ preference rankings plus approval votes, and tallies the latter if no Condorcet winner exists. It offers solid advantages vis-à-vis instant-runoff voting, which uses a kindred ballot and has attracted recent reformers. Another set of systems uses only approval voting, which is examined from a new angle.     

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994–2004: An Overview

The paper attempts a comprehensive and theoretically grounded analysis of all parliamentary and presidential elections carried out in Ukraine in the decade 1994 to 2004. It is organized into four sections. The first deals with the electoral system, how it came into being and has been amended, how it translates votes into seats, the "effective number" of political parties in the electorate and the legislature, and the battle over the electoral system itself during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In the second section, voting behaviour of the Ukrainian electorate is examined. Using voting data, along with the results of public opinion surveys and reports on the conduct of the various election campaigns, the paper sorts through the relevant determinants of voting choice to identify the most pertinent ones as they operate in the Ukrainian context. Generally speaking, such determinants are: (1) background social characteristics of the voters, including the regional and ethnic factors; (2) the public's assessments of the current political and economic conditions in the country; (3) individual voters' partisan identification and opinions on prominent issues; (4) their retrospective evaluations of the incumbents; (5) leadership qualities of the contenders; and (6) prospective evaluations of parties and candidates as to their expected performance in office. To determine which of these are consistently more important is an essential aim of the paper. The third section assesses the degree to which accountability has been achieved in any of these elections—those to the Verkhovna Rada of 1994, 1998, and 2002, and the presidential elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004. A penultimate section is devoted to evaluating the policy consequences of these elections: what difference have Ukraine's elections made to policies over the past decade? In the concluding portion, a characterization of the emerging party system is given along with a summing-up on the voting behaviour of Ukrainians in the post-communist era.     

SELF-INTEREST AND PUBLIC OPINION TOWARD SMOKING POLICIES; A REPLICATION AND EXTENSION

Numerous studies report that self-interest has a non significantinfluence upon various political and social attitudes. In contrast,a recent article by Green and Gerken (1989) reports a Californiastudy showing that cigarette smokers are significantly moreopposed than nonsmokers to public smoking restrictions and tobaccosales tax increases. The present article replicates and extendsthis analysis with data from two different states—Illinois(in 1984, N=458)—and North Carolina (in 1985, N=488)—andusing analysis techniques that differ from and expand upon theCalifornia study. Despite these methodological differ ences,self-interest is again shown to have a significant influenceon opinions concerning public smoking restrictions and taxation,as well as on several additional issues relating to smokingand tobacco.     

Non-formal education and community development in Senegal

Given the often limited capacity of most African states to addressthe needs of their populations, local communities must findways to tackle many development challenges. For example, inSenegal, villagers have had to ensure a steady supply of water,construct health huts, and dispose of waste. As these problemshave become more acute, new practices and structures are required.To effectively address different issues and problems requiresa high level of community cooperation. This article exploresthe factors that give rise to community participation and specificallythe role of non-formal education.     

ELECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND THE COST OF UNPOPULARITY

When considering electoral campaigns, candidates receiving contributions from relatively unpopular industries should be regarded less favorably by voters that have information on the sources of funding. To offset this unpopularity effect, politicians may either demand more money for campaign advertising from these industries in order to persuade less informed voters, or shy away from unpopular contributors to avoid losing the support of the informed electorate. Our model predicts that the first effect dominates, and electoral contributions are increasing in industry unpopularity. By using U.S. House elections data and different identification strategies, we provide robust evidence in favor of our predictions. (JEL D72, P16)     

Estimating the effects of activists in two-party and multi-party systems: comparing the United States and Israel

This article presents an electoral model where activist groups contribute resources to their favored parties. These resources are then used by the party candidates to enhance the electoral perception of their quality or valence. We construct an empirical model of the United States presidential election of 2008 and employ the electoral perception of the character traits of the two candidates. We use a simulation technique to determine the local Nash equilibrium, under vote share maximization, of this model. The result shows that the unique vote-maximizing equilibrium is one where the two candidates adopt convergent positions, close to the electoral center. This result conflicts with the estimated positions of the candidates in opposed quadrants of the policy space. The difference between estimated positions and equilibrium positions allows us to estimate the influence of activist groups on the candidates. We compare this estimation with that of Israel for the election of 1996, and show that vote maximization leads low valence parties to position themselves far from the electoral origin. We argue that these low valence parties in Israel will be dependent on support of radical activist groups, resulting in a degree of political fragmentation.     

Grounds for Cautious Optimism

Humanitarian assistance organizations have made considerable strides in addressing gender issues. These efforts have fallen short, however, as organizations fail to adapt and apply a gender perspective consistently and to integrate local and international women into decision-making positions. This comment on Chris Corrin's report on humanitarian assistance in Kosova outlines the reasons for this partial failure, some of which are gender related and others of which are endemic to the humanitarian field. It concludes that the emergence of women activists in conflict areas provides grounds for cautious optimism for future transformative change.     

Political extremism — left, center, and right

This paper formalizes Lipset’s theory of political extremism and applies its axioms and derivations to guide empirical research. A latent structure analysis of measures of the issues from a survey of the 1992 U.S. electorate produced a three-class Left-Center-Right classification of voters. Given that ideological consistency may indicate a propensity toward political extremism, this study finds that this propensity now is strongest in the Right class and not in the Left and Center classes. He taught political sociology and search methodology at the University of Calfornia, Santa Barbara. His publications include theoretical and emjpirical analysis of political and social process and he has edited A Handbook of Social Science Methods.     

A randomized controlled trial of the effects of mindfulness practice on doctoral candidate psychological status

Objectives: To examine the impact of guided mindfulness practice on psychological distress and psychological capital (hope, optimism, resilience, and efficacy) in doctoral candidates. Participants: Recruitment of a convenience sample of doctoral candidates occurred in July 2015 and participants were randomly allocated to the control or intervention group (38 and 34 participants completed the trial, respectively). Methods: A single-blinded, randomized controlled trial with intention-to-treat analysis was conducted. The intervention consisted of a daily guided mindfulness practice, using an audio CD. Indicators of psychological distress and psychological capital were measured pre- and post-trial with validated questionnaires. Results: Compared to the control group, the intervention group reported a statistically significantly reduction in depression (p?=?.045) and increased self-efficacy (p?=?.004), hope (p?=?.000), and resilience (p?=?.011). Conclusions: These results highlight the effectiveness of self-administered mindfulness practice on the psychological health of doctoral candidates, and the positive effect on psychological capital is reported as a key finding.