Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries

Age-specific population growth rates were introduced to demographic analysis in earlier work by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982). In this paper, we derive a method which uses these growth rates to transform what may be a set of incompletely recorded deaths by age into a life table that accurately reflects the true mortality experience of the population under study. The method does not rely on the assumption of stability and, for example, in contrast to intercensal cohort survival techniques, is simple to implement when presented with nontraditional intercensal interval lengths. Thus we can obtain mortality estimates for less developed countries with defective data, despite departures from stability. Further, we assess the sensitivity of the method to violations in various assumptions underlying the procedure: error in estimated growth rates, existence of non-zero net intercensal migration, age dependence in the completeness of death registration, and misreporting of age at death and age in the population. We demonstrate the use of the method in an application to data referring to Argentine females during the period 1960 to 1970.     

Model life tables: An empirical test of their applicability to less developed countries

Model life tables are commonly used for estimating various parameters of mortality of populations in developing countries with limited data. The application of the models is based on the assumption that the agemortality pattern of the population under consideration resembles one of the life tables in the models. The analysis in this paper tests the validity of this assumption for developing countries with data usable for the purpose. The major conclusion is that infant mortality in the populations analyzed is higher than predicted by the models corresponding to the levels of adult mortality of these populations. The observed discrepancy is ascribed to the selectivity involved in the construction of model life tables, which are primarily derived from the historical experience of Western countries. Populations in the currently developing countries apparently differ in the process of mortality change from those used in the models. Though the analysis is limited to a few countries and may not necessarily be true for all the less developed countries, it suggests the need for caution in the use of conventional model life tables.     

Measurement of adult mortality in less developed countries: a comparative review

"This paper compares the direct and indirect methods used to measure adult mortality in the developing world. No other approach can substitute fully for accurate and complete vital registration, but in many countries it is unrealistic to expect the registration system to cover the majority of the population in the foreseeable future.... The difficulties involved in measuring adult mortality using surveys and other ad hoc inquiries are discussed.... While the choice of methods must depend on each country's situation, direct questions require very large samples and are unreliable in single-round inquiries. On the other hand, although indirect methods provide less detailed and up-to-date information than is ideal, they are adequate for many practical purposes. In particular, the experience of the 1980s suggests that questions about orphanhood perform better than earlier assessments indicated, and recent methodological developments have circumvented some of the limitations of the indirect approach."     

Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

This study looks at the effect of welfare programs on work incentives and the adult labor supply in developing countries. The analysis builds on the experimental evaluations of three programs implemented in rural areas: Mexico’s Programa Nacional de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA), Nicaragua’s Red de Protección Social, and Honduras’ Programa de Asignación Familiar. Comparable results for the three countries indicate that the effects that the programs have had on the labor supply of participating adults have been mostly negative but are nonetheless small and not statistically significant. However, the evidence does point to the presence of other effects on labor markets. In the case of PROGRESA, there is a small positive effect on the number of hours worked by female beneficiaries and a sizeable increase in wages among male beneficiaries and a resulting increase in household labor income. Moreover, PROGRESA seems to have reduced female labor-force participation in ineligible households. These results imply that large-scale interventions may have broader equilibrium effects.     

Fertility change in five Latin American countries: A covariance analysis of birth intervals

This paper analyzes patterns of childbearing throughout the reproductive career of Latin American women, using a hazards model of birth interval life tables. Data come from five fertility surveys of the World Fertility Survey Programme. The analysis, within each country and across time, assesses how demographic factors of reproduction influence the fertility history of women throughout their reproductive lives.     

The growth of families headed by women: 1950–1980

In recent decades, the number of families headed by women has increased dramatically. In this article, we use U.S. census data from 1950 to 1980 to consider the extent to which population growth, fertility change, decreased marriage, increased divorce, and increased household headship have contributed to the growth of female-headed families. For white women, the major source of growth during the 1960s and 1970s was an increase in the number of formerly married mothers due to increased divorce and decreased remarriage. There is a similar pattern for black women for the 1960-1970 period. During the 1970-1980 decade, however, the major source of growth for black women was an increase in the number of never-married mothers due to decreased marriage and increased fertility among nonmarried women.     

Educational assortative mating and economic inequality: A comparative analysis of three Latin American countries

Educational assortative mating and economic inequality are likely to be endogenously determined, but very little research exists on their empirical association. Using census data and log-linear and log-multiplicative methods, I compare the patterns of educational assortative mating in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, and explore the association between marital sorting and earnings inequality across countries. The analysis finds substantial variation in the strength of specific barriers to educational intermarriage between countries, and a close association between these barriers and the earnings gaps across educational categories within countries. This finding suggests an isomorphism between assortative mating and economic inequality. Furthermore, educational marital sorting is remarkably symmetric across gender in spite of the different resources that men and women bring to the union. This study highlights the limitations of using single aggregate measures of spousal educational resemblance (such as the correlation coefficient between spouses’ schooling) to capture variation in assortative mating and its relationship with socioeconomic inequality.     

Educational Inequalities among Latin American Adolescents: Continuities and Changes over the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s

The goal of this paper is to examine recent trends in educational stratification for Latin American adolescents growing up in three distinct periods: the 1980s, during severe recession; the 1990s, a period of structural adjustments imposed by international organizations; and the late 2000s, when most countries in the region experienced positive and stable growth. In addition to school enrollment and educational transitions, we examine the quality of education through enrollment in private schools, an important aspect of inequality in education that most studies have neglected. We use nationally representative household survey data for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Our overall findings confirm the importance of macroeconomic conditions for inequalities in educational opportunity, suggesting important benefits brought up by the favorable conditions of the 2000s. However, our findings also call attention to increasing disadvantages associated with the quality of the education adolescents receive, suggesting the significance of the EMI framework-Effectively Maintained Inequality-and highlighting the value of examining the quality in addition to the quantity of education in order to fully understand educational stratification in the Latin American context.     

Child labor versus educational attainment: some evidence from Latin America

The paper addresses the issue of child labor in relation to the educational attainment of working children. The empirical analysis is based on household surveys in Bolivia and Venezuela. It was found that labor force participation is non-trivial among those below the legal working age or supposed to be in school. Working children contribute significantly to total household income. The fact that a child is working reduces his or her educational attainment by about 2 years of schooling relative to the control group of non-working children. Grade repetition, a common phenomenon in Latin America, is closely associated with child labor. JEL classification: J13, J21, I21 Received May 2, 1996/Accepted August 14, 1996     

The population,agriculture, and environment nexus in Latin America: country-level evidence from the latter half of the twentieth century

Unprecedented population growth and migration accompanied equally unprecedented land use and land cover change in Latin America during the latter decades of the twentieth century. Country-level data are examined with bivariate statistics to determine relationships between changes in population patterns and land use (agriculture and forest cover) from 1961 to 2001. In South America, large forest areas were eliminated during the period, while exceptionally high rates of forest clearing were ubiquitous in the Central America/Caribbean region. These environmental changes accompanied dissimilar initial population densities and different effects of population change on agriculture. While interacting with a host of political, socio-economic, and geographic processes, it appears that both Malthusian and Boserupian demographic processes were important drivers of deforestation. Given continued, though slowing, population growth, increased urban consumption, and future land use constraints, policy makers face myriad challenges in advancing sustainable agriculture-population dynamics in Latin America.     

The future of sex mortality differentials in industrialized countries: A structural hypothesis

This paper advances the hypothesis that the future of sex mortality differentials in industrialized countries may depend on the future mortality rates of blue collar men. Data are presented to support the argument that mortality rates from ischemic heart disease for this population subgroup play a significant role in current differentials and, furthermore, that sexsocial class-mortality differentials correspond to social structural differences in protection against and/or exposure to health risks. Research and policy implications of this argument are addressed briefly.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or views of the World Health Organization.     

The demand for children in Arab countries: evidence from panel and count data models

This paper provides empirical evidence on fertility determinants in Arab countries. Adopting a macro and micro framework and exploiting panel and count data models the paper estimates the impact of cultural and economic factors on the demand for children. The results obtained strongly support the hypothesis that cross-country heterogeneity buttresses differentiated fertility and that female education mitigates high fertility. Child mortality and parent‘s preferences for sons positively affect fertility. By and large, demand for children is price and income inelastic. Received: 30 May 1995 /Accepted: 19 February 1998     

The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach

The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis.All correspondence to Yongil Jeon. An earlier version, The Easterlin hypothesis in OECD countries, was presented at the annual conference of the European society for population economics, Bilbao, Spain, June 2002. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Fertility and women's employment reconsidered: a macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000

This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid-1970s and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as changes in childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women.     

The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries

Research has demonstrated that, in a variety of settings, environmental factors influence migration. Yet much of the existing work examines objective indicators of environmental conditions as opposed to the environmental perceptions of potential migrants. This paper examines migration decision-making and individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual environmental events) with a focus on five developing countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua, and Peru. The survey data include both migrants and non-migrants, with the results suggesting that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase movement. These findings substantially improve our understanding of perceptions as related to internal migration and also suggest that a more differentiated perspective is needed on environmental migration as a form of adaptation.