Preference towards control in risk taking: Control,no control,or randomize?

This paper experimentally investigates preference towards different methods of control in risk taking. Participants are asked to choose between different ways for choosing which numbers to bet on for a gamble. They can choose the numbers themselves (control), let the experimenter choose (no control), or randomize. Classical economic theories predict indifference among the three methods. I found that participants exhibit strict preference for control, preference for no control, and preference for randomization. These preferences are robust as participants are willing to pay a small amount of money to implement their preferred method. Most participants believe that the winning probability under different methods is the same. This result contributes to the literature by clarifying that for most participants who exhibit preference for control, their preference is not due to illusion of control, but by source preference. Participants invest less in the risky gamble when they are not offered their preferred method.     

Latin America's recovery from debt problems: An assessment of model-based projections

This paper examines economic assumptions used in assessing prospective economic adjustment of Latin America in response to its debt problems. The analysis compares forecasts obtained by combining parameter estimates from different researchers' trade models with the authors' macroeconomic models for Brazil. Chile, and Mexico. The influence of econometric procedure on simulation results is discussed. Then, by simulation analysis, the following issues are addressed: (1) likelihood of high domestic growth rates for Latin America in the late 1980s; (2) whether OECD growth or interest rates have a larger impact on developing-country economies; (3) effects of dollar depreciation and high interest rates on Latin America's debt problems.     

Oh,If I Can Live That Long …

The article discusses long-term forecasts for world economic development that were prepared by Goldman Sachs.     

Socioeconomic Distinction, Cultural Tastes, and Cigarette Smoking

OBJECTIVES: The inverse relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and smoking is typically seen in terms of the greater economic and social resources of advantaged groups, but it may also relate to cultural resources. This study aims to test theories of symbolic distinction by examining relationships between smoking and ostensibly unrelated cultural preferences. METHODS: Using the 1993 General Social Survey, ordinal logistic regression models, and a three-category dependent variable (never, former, and current smoker), the analysis estimates relationships of musical likes and dislikes with smoking while controlling for SES and social strain. RESULTS: Preferences for classical music are associated with lower smoking, while preferences for bluegrass, jazz, and heavy metal music are associated with higher smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that SES groups may use smoking, like other cultural tastes, to distinguish their lifestyles from those of others.     

Can unemployment forecasts based on Google Trends help government design better policies? An investigation based on Spain and Portugal

The Covid-19 pandemic has increased the unemployment issue and accelerated the digital transformation. Real-time data specific to ongoing revolution in applied economic analysis are increasingly demanded to anticipate changes in unemployment to improve decision-making. The aim of this paper is to test whether unemployment rate forecasts based on Google Trends data improve the predictions based only on macroeconomic indicators published with a longer time lag. The research has been carried out at the national level for Spain and Portugal, and the main novelty is the analysis of unemployment rate forecasts at the regional level for Spain using dynamic panel data models to implement the best policies to reduce unemployment. The keywords unemployment and job offers have been used in each language. The results obtained demonstrate the capacity of Google Trends data associated with unemployment to improve the predictions of unemployment rates in Spanish regions. Moreover, predictions based on Google Trends data at national level in Spain and Portugal are significantly more accurate than those based on autoregressive models for both countries.     

Social inequality, ‘the deviant parent’ and child protection practice

Child protection cases typically involve families struggling through socio‐economic hardship. That said, in child protection practice there is a readiness to see the parent as the problem with parent reform or child removal as the preferred remedy. In this paper, the emergence and ongoing legitimacy of this child protection response is traced to the de‐politicisation of social inequality.     

Did how we learn affect what we learn?: Methodological bias,multimethod research and the case of economic development

This article explores the question of “did how we learn affect what we learn in social science?” through a case study of economic development research. Total dependence on a single method can be a dangerous practice as the method may dictate research findings and make it impossible to eliminate the rival hypothesis of methodological bias. When the multimethod approach is preferred, a mechanical application of multiple methods will not make it better than a single method approach. Using the case of state and local economic development studies, this article illustrates the promise of multimethod research and the danger of its misuse. Poor implementation of the approach can create equally misleading findings and a false sense of confidence in our theories. Among other factors identified in the article, a major key to its successful implementation is having researchers well trained in multiple methods.     

Uncertainty,the bargaining problem,and the Nash-Zeuthen solution

The Zeuthen bargaining model occupies a prominent place among those theories of the bargaining process that have been formulated and expounded by economists. Its solution to the bargaining problem is essentially economic, since invariant utility functions based on economic factors alone determine the outcome. However, this paper shows that a necessary condition for reaching the Zeuthen solution (shown by Harsanyi to be mathematically equivalent to the game-theoretic solution of Nash's theory) is that bargainers initially take up positions on opposite sides of the outcome that maximizes their utility product. Whether utility functions are mutually known or unknown, inherent in the bargaining situation itself is the requirement that bargainers be at least initially uncertain as to each other's subsequent concession behaviour. With uncertainty, von Neumann-Morgenstern rationality implies that each bargainer would make an initial demand that maximizes the expected gain from holding fast. Therefore, even if Zeuthen's concession criterion should subsequently dictate concession behaviour, expected utility maximization within the context of subjective uncertainty may well yield initial demands that are inconsistent with reaching the Nash-Zeuthen solution. Finally, a general methodological conclusion that emerges from the analysis is that, since the bargaining process necessarily proceeds from a context of subjective uncertainty, greater emphasis needs to be placed on its role as a device for affecting expectations.     

滩涂围垦土地利用方式演进的文化阐释及其对海洋型城市设计启示——以浙江省为例

沿海滩涂围垦土地利用方式随着时代进步而不断变化,历经了海盐晒场、海水养殖、农业用地、村庄与工业用地,直至现今的海洋型滨海新城建设用地。滩涂围垦土地利用方式的每一次转换,都蕴含着围垦理念与技术、土地利用时代需求与社会经济效应等丰富内涵。系统梳理浙江沿海滩涂围垦土地利用方式的文化涵义、文化价值等,既可丰富浙江海洋文化理论,又可为当代海洋经济建设,尤其是海洋型城市规划设计提供地方性特色文化理论支撑。     

A mental hygiene plan for state and local health departments

This article outlines the problems faced by today's same-sex attracted youth and provides a framework for administrators, social workers, and teachers to develop well-planned and specifically targeted supports for this often vulnerable population. Research on risk factors for same-sex attracted youth are reviewed, and three theories of coming out (stage models, constructivist models, and a self-psychology theory) are interwoven to provide a retheorizing of coming out appropriate to our same-sex attracted youth in our present-day communities. Specific recommendations for clinical social work practice follow from this examination of the coming-out process.     

地方经济周期研究——以江苏省为例

根据经济周期性波动理论，分析经济增长与物价上升之间的传导机制，对当前至2010年江苏省经济运行趋势进行预测，对下一轮经济周期江苏省经济基本走势进行判断。政府应加大转移支付力度，加速城市化和灵活运用财政政策。     

北京市投资、消费、净出口与经济增长的实证研究

本文通过国际比较和建立模型,分析了北京市1978-2009年投资、消费、净出口与GDP增长的关系,结合北京市"十二五规划"提出的GDP增长率、投资率、消费率等指标,针对首都转变经济发展方式中存在的突出问题以及政府宏观调控的路径选择提出了政策建议。     

A forecasting and policy simulation oriented small macro-model for the Indian economy

The design of macro-models for the purposes of derivation of macroeconomic stabilization policies and obtaining forecasts is an important area of theoretical and empirical economic research. This is because such a stance presents an ideal blend of skillfully interweaving the essential theoretical ingredients of the contemporary macroeconomic paradigms with specific structural features of the country under reference. The use of macro-models enables the policy makers to build alternative policy evidences and thus this approach proves to be far superior to the alternative approaches based on intuitive or judgmental criteria. It is against this background that a macro-model for the Indian economy is estimated in an error-correction framework. Based on it, some policy options are evaluated. ECM and time varying parameter based forecasts are obtained for inflation and growth for the Indian economy for the year 2004–2005.     

North-South relations: Alternative policy simulations for the world economy in the 1980s

This article makes projections of the world economy in the North-South context for the period 1981–1990 using a latest global version of a macroeconomic model named FUGI-GNEM type IV 011–62. The model classifies the world into 62 countries/regions, where the North-South interdependence is incorporated into an integral part of the world economy through international economic linkages. Based on alternative simulations, the author presents future images of the North-South interdependent world economy through changes in economic growth rates, employment, wages, prices, money supply, interest rates, public finance, trade, capital movement, international balance of payments, foreign exchange rates, etc., in each country or region. The model forecasts that the real economic growth of the developing countries as a whole in the 1980s will likely be around 4%–7% annual rate according to alternative policy scenarios.     

On the Intuition of Rank-Dependent Utility

Among the most popular models for decision under risk and uncertainty are the rank-dependent models, introduced by Quiggin and Schmeidler. Central concepts in these models are rank-dependence and comonotonicity. It has been suggested that these concepts are technical tools that have no intuitive or empirical content. This paper describes such contents. As a result, rank-dependence and comonotonicity become natural concepts upon which preference conditions, empirical tests, and improvements in utility measurement can be based. Further, a new derivation of the rank-dependent models is obtained. It is not based on observable preference axioms or on empirical data, but naturally follows from the intuitive perspective assumed. We think that the popularity of the rank-dependent theories is mainly due to the natural concepts used in these theories.     

Environmental taxation and the double dividend hypothesis in CGE modelling literature: A critical review

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling is a flexible and open way to model the economic systems that allow practitioners to assess the impacts of different policies or external shocks over an economic system. There is some empirical literature dedicated to test the double dividend hypothesis of an environmental tax reform using CGE models. This hypothesis claims that is possible to obtain an improvement of both environmental and economic conditions by imposing an environmental tax and recycling revenues obtained to reduce other pre-existing taxes. This research provides a comprehensive review of this literature including a statistical and a meta-regression analysis. 69 different simulations from 40 studies have been analyzed. 55% of simulations have achieved a double dividend, concluding that although the environmental dividend is almost always achieved, the economic dividend still remains an ambiguous question that needs further research.     

Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?

An effective budgetary process requires accurate forecasts of future economic activity. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission’s Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented here which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the enhanced EU fiscal framework. Forecasts of output growth are unduly pessimistic, irrational, and influenced by recent economic activity. The article considers the reasons for and implications of such biases and proposes improvements to forecasting processes that could address these issues.     

宪政的法哲学分析

宪政是人类智慧的产物,是人类政治文明和法治文明的结晶。回顾宪政的历史发展过程,宪政的思想渊源是自由主义、共和主义;宪政的制度构建离不开民主、法治和人权理论及实践;同时,市场经济的发展以及政治国家与公民社会的二元分立对宪政理念及制度的形成和发展也起到了基础性的作用。从法哲学的视角出发,以上问题分别构成了宪政发展的思想基础、政治基础、经济基础和社会基础。对这些问题进行理性的思考和分析,特别是从法哲学角度的分析,能够为宪政问题的研究提供科学的理论根据。     

'Good lesbian, bad lesbian…': regulating heterosexuality in fostering and adoption assessments

The paper examines the assessment of lesbians who apply to foster or adopt, using data generated from 30 interviews with local authority social workers. Using feminist and queer theories, the author suggests that lesbian applicants pose a challenge to the discourse of 'compulsory gender and heterosexuality' which structures fostering and adoption work. It is argued that this discourse relies upon a series of assumptions about the automatic fitness of heterosexual applicants, especially concerning the idea of gender and sexuality role models needed for children's development. Further, this 'heteronormative' discourse relies upon the continuing need to make 'other' the categories 'lesbian' or 'gay'. The article considers how 'the lesbian' is constructed as a 'threat', as 'militant', or as 'automatically safe' in assessments, and makes the point that social work is productive of versions of the lesbian subject. The author argues that only certain versions are likely to be approved to foster or adopt, particularly that which is termed 'the good lesbian'.     

Empirical tests of stochastic binary choice models

This paper provides an experimental test of stochastic choice models of decisions. Models that admit Fechnerian structure are tested through the repeated pairwise choice problems. Results refute the Fechner hypothesis that characterizing the probability of selecting a given prospect increases in how strongly it is preferred to alternative choices. However, the experimental data lend support to characterizing an individual’s binary choice probability as some scalable functions of the von Neumann–Morgenstern utilities in the risky context.