外出务工对农村老年人家庭子女养老分工影响研究

文章利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2009年在安徽省巢湖市进行的＂安徽省老年人生活福利状况＂抽样调查数据,采用多元Logistic回归分析了农村老年人家庭儿子与女儿外出务工状况对子女兄弟姐妹养老分工的影响。结果表明,外出务工对子女养老分工有显著影响,并且儿子和女儿外出务工的影响存在显著性别差异。儿子全部外出务工,子女之间倾向不平均分担对老年父母的经济支持,女儿全部外出务工,子女之间倾向于共同平均分担经济支持;儿子全部外出务工或女儿全部外出务工,子女之间都倾向于不给予老年父母生活照料。     

Using social indicators to forecast partisan alignments in congressional election years

This paper presents five forecasting equations for political party alignments in the United States during the post-World War II period. Time series data published by various public and survey organizations are utilized to estimate for the years 1948–1974 for party identifications and results of elections for the House of Representatives. The observed equations explain from 86–93% of the variance for the years 1948–1974 and usually allow acceptance of the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation of disturbances. These equations are then employed to make forecasts of the 1976 election year alignments which are compared to observed values. The forecasting equations for 1976 are generally successful, for example, missing the congressional alignments by nine House seats. Some contingent forecasts are made for 1978 election year alignments, based upon certain alternative assumptions about economic and political climates. The equations do not intend to test new theories but rather to apply fairly simple ideas to forecasting trends in public opinion. The authors argue that forecasting equations are useful for anticipating future trends, for planning future research and for assessing whether an unusual event is manifesting itself or alternatively whether a certain trend in public opinion is to be expected from normal processes.     

The moderating effect of threat on the relationship between population concern and environmental concern

Two hundred sixty-one research participants completed a questionnaire designed to measure concern for the environment and concern for population growth. The introduction to the questionnaire focused on either threat to society, personal threat, or no threat. Contrary to some previous research findings, a positive correlation between concern for the environment and concern for population growth was found. This finding is explained by the simultaneity of measurement of the two constructs, item phrasing, and the possibility that previous research findings lacked transhistorical reliability. The threat manipulation was found to moderate the relationship between concern for the environment and concern for population growth. Analyses of demographic variables showed that women expressed more environmental concern that men, and that regular church attendees expressed the least concern for population growth.     

Long- and short-term affective states in happiness: Model,paradigm and experimental evidence

The present paper evaluates relevant findings on long- and short-term affective states in subjective well-being and argues for a componential model that combines the two into the more general concept of happiness. Two age parameters, one for long-term and one for short-term affect are added to the simple model to account for age changes in happiness. Measures of long- and short-term affect are presented, as is a paradigm for separating the components. Support for the simple model is provided by an experimental investigation with 64 college students who were exposed to positive and/or negative mood induction. As expected, the induction had substantially greater effect on short- than on long-term affect measures, particularly the negative induction procedure. These findings are consistent with predictions. However, multiple age cohorts will have to be assessed within a longitudinal framework to obtain values for the age parameters.     

Education and the Transition to Fatherhood: The Role of Selection Into Union

Although advanced education has been found to be consistently associated with a later transition to parenthood for women, findings about education and the transition to parenthood have been much less consistent for men, and no stylized fact has emerged from the literature. We argue that the inconsistency of findings for men is due to the fact that the selection process involved in union formation has been disregarded in earlier studies. We hypothesize that men’s educational attainment consistently and positively affects the transition to fatherhood via higher rates of union formation. We apply multiprocess event-history analysis to data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for 10 European countries. Our results show indeed a consistent positive effect of education on the transition to fatherhood, but it operates chiefly through selection into union. Failing to account for this selection process leads to a major underestimation of the salience of education for the transition to fatherhood.     

Determinants of male and female higher education in the United States

Recently a number of studies [3, 5–11] dealing with the question of demand for higher education have appeared. Most of these studies either deal with the total demand for higher education or with the demand for public and private higher education. So far, the question of higher education demand by sex has not been analyzed. Such analysis may be important for a number of reasons. First, during the period 1951–1970 female enrollment increased by 361 percent whereas male enrollment rose by only 233 percent. Such trends might also continue in the future since the present (1970) enrollment participation rate of high school graduates is only 0.47 for females as compared to 0.68 for males. Second, it is important to test empirically whether parents discriminate when they choose to enroll their children in institutions of higher education. Third, the recent social movement towards equality for both sexes and the efforts of the federal government to provide important jobs to females, should also stimulate a greater demand for education on the part of females. In this paper, we attempt to estimate separately demand functions for higher education in the United States for males and females.     

Methodology for studying discrimination based on sexual orientation and social sex-role stereotypes

This article presents the methodology used in collecting data for the study of the relationship of sexual orientation and social sex-role to the protection of civil liberties. The methodology is designed to determine how departures in sexual orientation and social sex-role are the basis for the abridgment of civil liberties. Departure in sexual orientation is defined as physical sexual activity involving individuals of the same sex. Departure in social sex-role stereotypes is defined as departing from or conforming to the feminine stereotype for men, the feminine stereotype for women, the masculine sterotype for men, and the masculine stereotype for women.     

Living conditions among the poor in four rich countries

The share of income going to the poorest 10% of Americans is much smaller than the share of income going to the poorest 10% of Canadians, Swedes, or Germans (before unification). However, comparisons across countries of the distribution of housing conditions, consumer durables, health, and visits to the doctor and dentist suggest that compared to the average person in their country, low-income Americans are no worse off than low-income residents of other countries. But these conclusions partly depend on how income is adjusted for family size. Americans whose incomes are low for a long time may suffer more material deprivation than Canadians whose incomes are low for a long time. Conclusions about economic well-being based on current income may not rank nations the same as comparisons based on deprivation in living conditions.The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, The Russell Sage Foundation, the National Science Foundation and a Small Grant from the Institute for Research on Poverty provided funding for various stages of this project. I am indebted to Christopher Jencks and two anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. I am also indebted to Larry Radbill who provided computer programing for the United States and Swedish data and valuable technical suggestions. Monica Ardelt provided computer programing and technical assistance for the German data. Johan Fritzel provided technical assistance for the Swedish data and David Rhodes, Karen Rolf, and Tim Veenstra provided computer programing for the Unites States data.     

The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups.     

Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries

Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-specific age groups than does the Peto-Lopez method. An adjustment factor is also introduced to account for low mortality in the indirect method’s study population. These modifications are shown to be useful specifically in the estimation of deaths attributable to smoking for females at older ages, and in the estimation of smoking-attributable mortality more generally. In a comparison made between the United States and France with the modified method, smoking is found to be responsible for approximately one-half the difference in life expectancy for females at age 65.     

Contraceptive rings provide simple protection

The Population Council is currently conducting 4 clinical trials of the vaginal contraceptive ring. This device remains in the vagina for weeks or months, releasing hormone formulations tailored for a variety of contraceptive needs. Rings that deliver both estrogen and progesterone can be kept in place for 3 weeks, then removed for the last week of the cycle. Since the steroids diffuse directly from vaginal tissues to the bloodstream, smaller steroid doses can be used than for oral contraceptives (OCs). In contrast to IUDs, which require insertion and removal by medical providers, women can be taught to insert and remove the flexible device themselves. One of the rings being evaluated by the Population Council is suitable for breast feeding women. It does not contain estrogen and appears to have no adverse effect on either lactation or infant growth. Preliminary findings have confirmed the effectiveness of a ring that remains in place 6-12 months. Advantageous for distribution in developing countries would be a contraceptive ring that lasts for 12 months and could be priced competitively with OCs. In addition to contraception, the ring can be used by postmenopausal women for hormone replacement treatment.     

The Distribution of Sums of Rounded Percentages

When percentages are computed for counts in several categories or for several positive measurements0 each taken as a fraction of their sum, the rounded percentages often fail to add to 100 percent. We investigate how frequently this failure occurs and what the distributions of sums of rounded percentages are for (1) an empirical set of data, (2) the multinomial distribution in small samples, (3) spacings between points dropped on an interval-the broken-stick model-; and (4) for simulation for several categories. The several methods produce similar distributions.We find that the probability that the sum of rounded percentages adds to exactly 100 percent is certain for two categories, about three-fourths for three categories, about two-thirds for four categories, and about [Formula: see text] for larger numbers of categories, c, on the average when categories are not improbable.     

市场选择与体制依存——社会化养老机构经营现状个案研究

近年来,各类民办性质的养老机构发展迅速,不同于东南沿海,一些相对欠发达地区的养老机构在以市场化经营为基本主体的前提下,受到地方经济水平、制度惯性与文化传统的多重影响,往往产生了对政府体制既有依赖性又有反弹性的双重经营局面。本文试图通过对东北地区F市几所养老机构经营发展状况的个案调查,分析在市场化与社会化经营过程中,体制性力量与地方性力量是如何作用于养老机构日常化运作的,以此进一步探讨我国社会化养老机构在发展建设过程中所面对的困难与不足。     

Rethinking the Two-Body Problem: The Segregation of Women Into Geographically Dispersed Occupations

Empirical research on the family cites the tendency for couples to relocate for husbands’ careers as evidence against the gender neutrality of household economic decisions. For these studies, occupational segregation is a concern because occupations are not random by sex and mobility is not random by occupation. I find that the tendency for households to relocate for husbands’ careers is better explained by the segregation of women into geographically dispersed occupations rather than by the direct prioritization of men’s careers. Among never-married workers, women relocate for work less often than men, and the gender effect disappears after occupational segregation is accounted for. Although most two-earner families feature husbands in geographically clustered jobs involving frequent relocation for work, families are no less likely to relocate for work when it belongs to the wife. I conclude that future research in household mobility should treat occupational segregation occurring prior to marriage rather than gender bias within married couples as the primary explanation for the prioritization of husbands’ careers in household mobility decisions.     

Welfare to Well-Being Transition

Welfare to well-being leads to better qualityof life for families and communities. Around the world, societies are experimenting and shifting policies that address welfare to well-being for families and communities. In the U.S., the greatest shift in several decades has occurred with thewelfare reform policies. These shifts haveplaced at issue the extent to which individualsand families and governments contribute toself-sufficiency and sustainability of theirmembers and the collective whole in society. The paper addresses: a framework for thinkingabout sustaining well-being in the context ofmaking transitions from welfare for the few towell-being for the many; a researchillustration of focus group findings on themeaning of self-sufficiency for families whoare currently receiving one type of welfare(food stamps); and the opportunities emergingin the context of the interaction of the familyand society at the community, state, nationaland global level that allows for a wholisticresponse to issues around well-being andquality of life studies.     

农村计划生育家庭养老保障机制研究

对农村计划生育家庭在资金和发展经济上给予帮助,使其增加收入,进而也增加了养老积蓄;对计划生育夫妇子女的各种优惠,是帮助家庭增加对孩子的抚养成本投入,以期将来转化为更高的养老价值;政府和集体承担的那部分计划生育养老保险金,是直接给计划生育家庭的养老投入;新启动的农村部分计划生育家庭奖励扶助制度,更是与国家退休养老保障制度性质相似的新机制。必须建立相应的,以政府投入为主渠道的计划生育投入机制,通过公共财政支持,才能保证上述养老保障工作的资金需求与资金供给平衡。     

The effect of undercount on the accuracy of small-area population estimates: Implications for the use of administrative data for improving population enumeration

The effects of underenumeration on the accuracy of alternative methods of population estimation have not been sufficiently analyzed. Although the US Bureau of the Census has decided not to adjust either the counts or its estimates for underenumeration in 1990, the extent to which local population estimates may account for underenumeration is of importance both for those who may wish to adjust existing estimates and in anticipation of future census adjustments. This paper examines the accuracy of small-area population estimation methods with and without adjustment. Mean Percent Errors, Mean Absolute Percent Errors, and Mean Percent Absolute Differences between local estimates for 1990 and 1990 adjusted and unadjusted census counts are computed. Population estimates for 1990 made using housing unit, ratio correlation, and component methods are compared for 451 counties and 2,633 places in the states of California, Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin. An analysis of the data for counties shows little indication that local estimates more accurately estimate the adjusted than the unadjusted population counts. The results for places show clear improvements in accuracy for places in Florida and Texas. Implications of the findings for issues related to undercount adjustment and local population estimates are discussed.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

我国城市老年供养体系研究综述

由于底部人口老龄化和顶部人口老龄化的双重作用,我国的养老问题日益突出。而解决养老问题的关键在于健全的老年供养体系。虽然学者们对供养体系的子系统——资源系统、提供系统、供养模式各持其说,但是仍不能脱离家庭、社会、个人三者的作用,以及在此基础上形成的大量混合供养模式。然而,我国正处于家庭养老向社会养老的过渡阶段,其老年人的制度供给、精神保障、经济效应尚需深入研究。