Grenzen der Geschichte?

The article follows Tony Becher’s suggestion, that scientific disciplines metaphorically spoken may be looked at as different tribes of different habits occupying different territories. The articles reviews then some possibilities to determine a border between the field of historical research and sociology by different methods, different theories, different research objects e. g. past vs. present and so on. The academic field of history is described as a field importing theories, methods and objects from other academic fields, many of them from sociology. The last decades’ processes of innovation and redefinition within the field of historical research diminished cognitive differences between history and sociology so significantly that — this is the main argument of the article — more or less only the borders produced by institutions remained. Nevertheless these kind of borders have major effects all of them responsible for maintaining different disciplinary identities.     

我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的实证分析

为了协调我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的关系,对1978～2005年期间我国的人口就业与不同产业经济增长之间进行了协整分析,得出我国人口就业与第二、第三产业经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;同时构建模型对我国不同产业的GDP与就业人数进行了回归分析,利用我国不同产业的GDP就业弹性,比较分析了我国不同产业对就业吸纳作用的差异;以及利用得出的结论提出保持适度的经济增长,进行产业结构调整,扩大劳务输出等政策建议是缓解和扩大我国人口就业的必然途径。     

城市化阶段和大城市地区不同区域人口空间变动——以上海静安区、浦东新区和南汇区为例

在城市化发展的不同阶段,大城市的不同区域人口变动表现出不同的特点。研究根据20多年历时性数据的动态分析,对上海中心城区、近郊区和远郊区在人口总量、迁移强度和迁移方向的不同特点进行定量研究和比较研究。在1992年前后,上海的郊区化历程才正式开始,当前上海正处于从前期郊区化向深度郊区化的转折时期、从初期相对扩散向绝对扩散发展的时期。需要根据不同区域人口变动的规律性,实行分区域的人口发展对策:结合人口导出带来的城市问题引导城市更新;结合近郊区人口聚集加强公共服务能力;引导远郊区的人口聚集加强新城建设。     

人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究--基于动态面板分位数回归法

本文采用1996～2015年的31个省市自治区宏观数据,使用动态面板分位数回归方法研究人口受教育程度和居民消费的数量关系。研究结果表明,人口受教育程度对消费有着较为显著的影响,且人口受教育程度对中等消费支出水平的影响略大于高、低消费支出水平的影响,这说明中等消费水平的居民消费受到人口受教育程度的影响更加敏感和有弹性。另外,模型中其他各解释变量系数在各分位数上的差异不大,说明这些影响因素对于不同消费支出水平的消费影响没有太明显差异。     

新疆民族混合家庭户的分布与构成

本文根据人口普查数据及调研资料对新疆民族混合家庭户的分布与构成进行了描述：近年来混合户数量明显上升,并以民汉混合户增长更快;在全疆分布区域性差别较大,与当地的民族成份种类、城市化水平以及民族构成有关。同时,人口数量少的民族更易与其他民族组成混合家庭;同一宗教信仰的民族更易组成混合家庭,但回族例外。民汉混合户相对规模较小,结构简单。预计新疆民族混合家庭的数量将进一步增多,主要表现为族际婚姻增多。     

东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感及其影响因素

基于2012年东部十省市流动人口动态监测调查数据,文章采用序次 Logistic 回归模型,对比分析了东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感及其影响因素。研究发现：东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感有着较为明显的地区差异,流动人口主观幸福感与城市规模之间存在倒 U 型关系。影响不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感的因素不尽相同,但总体而言,影响超大城市流动人口主观幸福感的因素远远多于Ⅰ型小城市,住房性质成为经济因素中影响不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感最为突出且普遍的因素,而社会因素对于不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感的影响作用要大于经济因素。最后,提供了相关政策启示。     

中国生育现代化问题的定量研究

本文主要对我国生育现代化进行了一些定量研究 ,构造了生育现代化综合指数 ,在历史及省际比较的基础上认为我国生育现代化自建国以来呈波浪形上升演进过程 ,省际差异大而且生育现代化内部各方面发展不平衡。     

Living Environment Preferences of the Inhabitants of Istanbul: A Modified Hierarchical Information Integration Model

This paper presents a two-stage research to model the different priorities and expectations about living environment preferences of the inhabitants of Istanbul, Turkey's largest metropolitan with a population of 10 million. In the first stage, a modified hierarchical information integration approach was used to estimate the utilities of different attributes for each individual sampled from the inhabitants of Istanbul. This is a decompositional approach and involves measuring individual preferences. In this study, not only aggregate results are reported but also a segmentation study is carried out to explore the heterogeneity in respondents' preferences. Identification of such segments would help planner offer different planning options to groups with different preferences. Thus, the second stage of this study consists of identifying distinct groups of inhabitants with different preference structures by using cluster analysis. The resulting information is believed to be more useful especially to understand diverging demands of inhabitants of Istanbul.     

中国人口发展地理波分析

人口地理波分析表明,中国有5大人口地理波波及区,4组人口地理波先发展地,2个人口地理波向西部传播的中转地。"两纵"、"两横"四大人口地理波传播扩散基本通道。各地人口发展空间上有差别,时间上有先后,有工作因素,更有时空差异客观规律的作用。应尊重发展的时空差异,在不同的人口地理波波及区和同一人口地理波波及区的先发展地区和边缘地区,创造不同的发展模式,采取不同的工作方式,提出不同的工作目标和发展时间表。全国统一但有区别的人口政策和工作模式的不断创造和完善,应是全国人口工作的重要内容。     

Return migration and metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population composition

This paper examines the extent to which female "return migrants" to Puerto Rico return to their area of birth or to a different area, thereby contributing to a redistribution of the island's population, and the extent to which those who do return to their area of birth have different socioeconomic characteristics than those who return to a different area.     

人口与生育政策变动对代际关系的影响

人口与生育政策直接影响着人们的生育需求和生育观念 ,不同的政策有不同的生育动机 ,所追求的孩子数量、质量也不一样 ,从而导致父母与子女之间的代际关系各异。本文以 1 973年为界论述了我国 1 973年前后的人口与生育政策变化及生育观念的转变对代际关系的影响     

人力资本与社会资源获得:东北国企的实证分析

在东北社会变迁和体制改变的大背景下,东北老工业基地人力资本和人力资源的社会效应问题比较突出。在实证数据分析的支持下,东北国企干部与职工的人力资本对特定社会资源的摄取呈现出不同的效果,展现了人力资本的差异性作用。基于干部和职工的比较分析,认识到东北老工业基地人力资本对社会资源摄取的差异性作用,可以促进东北老工业基地不同职业群体的和谐发展。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响:区域差异与动态变化

基于1995—2009年中国省级面板数据,利用IPAT模型建立基本的分析框架,研究人口数量、人口年龄结构、人口城市化率以及家庭规模等人口因素对我国CO2排放的影响,结果显示,由于人口因素与CO2排放的关系与经济发展特征有关,而我国处于经济快速增长的过程中且区域经济发展存在差异,使得影响我国全国CO2排放的人口因素不同于各区域内部,在经济发展的不同阶段、甚至不同年份,导致省际CO2排放差异的人口因素也在不断变化。     

Is poverty multidimensional? A comparison of income and asset based measures in five Southern African countries.

This paper contests the major emphasis placed on the multidimensional nature of poverty measurement. Instead, it argues that poverty pictures created by different measures and at different units of analysis tend to converge. This argument is derived from a comparison of poverty pictures created using income and asset-based measures at the national and household level in five South African Development Community countries. Although multidimensional measures have value in illuminating subtle differences, the findings indicate a single dimension of poverty that runs throughout all the measures and levels of analysis. However, despite the single poverty picture provided by different measures, the abandonment of these different measures is not supported. Multidimensional measures provide insight into particular elements of poverty that is useful and relevant to poverty interventions.     

新生代农民工就业条件行业差距实证研究

本文利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,选取流动人口典型就业行业（包括制造业、建筑业、批发零售和住宿餐饮业）。探讨行业之间就业条件差距的代际变化情况,分析新生代农民工丁资、劳动强度、社会保险状况等就业条件的行业差距及其影响因素。研究结果表明,不同行业农民工就业条件的代际差距有明显扩大趋势,反映出行业发展的不均衡与部分劳动者的权益损害。行业待遇差距过大,将会恶化劳动力供给结构不均衡,甚至加剧近些年出现的“用工荒”现象,不利于我国宏观经济的健康发展。     

Population, Nomadic Pastoralism and the Environment in the Mongolian Plateau

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between population, economic activity and the environment in the Mongolian Plateau. This analysis provides a valuable case study for several reasons. First, it elucidates a specific ecosystem—the steppe—that has not received much attention in the literature and a traditional economic activity consistent with such environment: nomadic pastoralism. Second, the Mongolian Plateau is shared by two entities, with two different economic and social organisation: the Republic of Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China. Third, these two entities have also experienced two different population dynamics that have resulted in different population densities and population pressure on natural resources. Fourth, environmental degradation does not seem to be a problem in the Republic of Mongolia, while in Inner Mongolia the quantity and quality of the grasslands are in decline.The argument discussed here is that the difference in resource depletion and environmental degradation between the two regions is mainly the result of different population dynamics, which has resulted in different human and animal population densities.     

旧城改造对城市社会空间分异的影响——以武汉市为例

旧城改造对于塑造我国城市社会空间结构有着重要的影响,这种影响主要通过政府、企业和市民这三个主体的相互作用来体现。不同主体对不同社会群体的影响不同,使得不同社会群体在城市不同空间范围内聚集,从而导致城市社会空间分异。在运用因子生态分析法界定2000年武汉市社会空间的基础上,通过建立多元线性回归模型,研究不同主体对城市社会空间分异的影响。研究发现政府对办事人员聚集区、外来人口聚集区、离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区的形成产生显著影响;企业对离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区和农业人口聚集区的形成具有一定的影响;而市民则对办事人员聚集区、离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区的形成具有一定的影响。这反映了旧城改造过程中政府为主导、企业和市民有限参与的现实状况。     

河南省农村外出务工人员心理健康状况调查与分析

近年来,农民工问题成为社会研究的热点问题,他们的心理健康问题也越来越多地受到人们的关注。本文采用精神症状自评量表（SCL-90）对河南的抽样调查资料进行测评。结果显示。农民工的心理健康不仅在不同性别、不同婚姻状况以及务工时间长短方面与正常人存在差异．而且不同地区之间农民工的心理健康状况也有着显著差异。     

Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations

Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.     

移民“扎根”的想象与现实——对三峡库区城镇移民的实证调查

移民能否“扎根”是关乎移民生存发展的重要议题,而移民生活满意度争移民政策意愿是影响移民“扎根”的重要因素。本文对三峡库区不同安置类型的城镇移民的生活满意度和政策意愿作出相关分析,结果表明：不同安置类型的城镇移民的生活满意度不同;不同安置类型的城镇移民的政策意愿不同。同时,对差异存在的原因进行学理阐述和实践反思。