Vector representation of migration streams among selected state economic areas during 1955 to 1960

This paper uses in-migration, out-migration, and net migration vectors to measure and portray the migration streams occurring between April 1, 1955, and April 1, 1960, for all persons five years old and over on April 1, 1960, among 38 contiguous state economic areas (SEA's) in Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, and New Mexico. Both rectangular and polar coordinates were employed in computing three different types of vector representations. First, migration vectors for each SEA, expressed in total people-miles of in-movement, out-movement, and net movement represent the resultant direction of movement and the total people-miles of movement. Second, in- and out-migration vectors of the total people-miles of movement, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the total size of each migration stream for each SEA, the resultant direction of movement, and the distance moved in total people-miles of movement. p ]Third, in- and out-migration vectors of the average distances moved to and from each SEA, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the magnitude of movement, the average distance moved per migrant, and the resultant direction of movement. This study shows that migration vectors based upon polar coordinates are more accurate than the migration vectors based upon rectangular coordinates. Also, the in- and out-migration vectors are superior to net migration vectors in representing migratory streams among geographic areas.     

Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95

Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptions for the sets of projections are compared with corresponding estimates from the UN 1998 Revision for total fertility and life expectancy at birth, total population, and the projected age structures. The report covers seven major regions (Africa, Asia, the former USSR, Europe, Northern America, Latin America, and Oceania) and the largest ten countries of the world as of 1998 (China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria).     

Birth rate of Beijing population drops nearly 60% in 20 years

The birthrate of the Beijing (China) population dropped by 60% in the last 20 years. Consequently, population reproduction is characterized by a pattern of low birthrate, low mortality rate, and a low growth rate. The birthrate of the Beijing population was 36.30/1000 in 1950 and rose to 43.41/1000 in 1963. During the 1950-63 period, the average annual birthrate of Beijing population reached 36.71/1000 and the number of births was 2.23 million. Since the beginning of the 1970s, the rapid population growth has been effectively checked by great efforts made in practicing family planning. Over the 1970-83 period, the average annual birthrate dropped to 14.9/1000 and the number of births totaled 1.75 million. With the advance of the family planning effort, particularly acceptance of the concept of practicing family planning for the modernization drive, the people's reproductive notion has changed for the better. At this time, more and more men and women of reproductive age have broken away from the influence of old ideas such as "the earlier the couples have their sons, the soonner they will be helped." By 1982, the average age at 1st marriage was 25.8 years for males and 24.7 years for females. This was a remarkable change as compared with the 1960s. According to the 1982 population census, Beijing women over 60 years had 4.83 children, while those in the age groups 55-59, 50-54, 45-49, 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, and 25-29 has 4.81, 4.50, 3.72, 2.95, 2.32, 1.58, and 0.57 children respectively. Today, 0.66 million couples in Beijing volunteer to have only 1 child.     

中国劳动力的从业状态及其差异分析

随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深，学界对劳动力状况的研究呈现数量、结构、质量并重的局面。本文利用2012年CLDS数据，对中国劳动力群体进行了基于雇员、雇主、自雇、务农四种从业状态的人口学描述，并分析了四种从业状态的劳动力群体在人力资本、工作时间与场所、收入与社会保障、工作评价、工作价值观及社会阶层认同等方面的差异。这些差异对相关劳动政策的制定具有一定的启发意义。     

中国老年人经济生活来源变化:2005～2010

2005～2010年,我国老年人的主要经济生活来源结构没有发生大的变化,但各类生活来源的比重发生较大变化。老年人的经济生活来源存在明显的性别、年龄、婚姻、城乡、地区差异。在过去5年,我国老年人的独立性增强,一些弱势群体越来越多地得到国家、政府的保障。但是,女性老年人群体、高龄老人群体、丧偶老人群体,尤其未婚的老人,更需要社会关注;老年人主要经济生活来源的城乡差异和镇乡差异、东部和西部地区以及中部和西部地区的差异在扩大。     

新生代农民工城市融合障碍构成原因探析——基于社会排斥理论的视阈

结合实地调研与访谈结果,本文发现进城务工的新生代农民工面临着来自经济、政治、文化、教育以及福利等方面的排斥。本文基于社会排斥理论,从两个维度分析了形成这些排斥的原因：一是受人力资本素质、文化与社会认同等自身禀赋约束的功能性排斥,二是受户籍、就业、社会保障等制度影响的结构性排斥。功能性社会排斥与结构性社会排斥的存在直接导致了新生代农民工的城市融合进程受阻,只有拆除这种藩篱才能够促进其尽快实现城市融合。     

社会文化变迁对婚姻家庭的影响及趋势

婚姻家庭既是人类文化的积淀,是社会文化的载体,也是传递社会文化的重要组成部分。在人类发展的历史长河中,婚姻家庭与社会文化变迁密切相关,社会文化变迁以各种方式影响着婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展。以社会文化变迁为视角,通过对社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展之间的互动关系的历史考察,从婚姻家庭形式、婚姻家庭制度、婚姻家庭观念、婚姻家庭习俗、婚姻家庭关系等方面探讨人类社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化发展之间的内在关系,揭示人类社会不同历史阶段社会文化变迁及其特点对人类社会婚姻家庭建立、形成与发展的影响,探索社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化规律,探寻在当代社会文化交汇、冲突、融合加快趋势下,社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化的趋势。     

Relating briefly the natural resources and the population problems of China]

Problems in population, manifested primarily as either "over" or "under" population, are ultimately related to the development of natural resources. Land is the most basic of natural resources. China's land mass is largely mountainous, with 56% of its more than 2000 counties, 1/3 of its population, 40% of its cultivated land and a majority of its forests, situated in mountainous regions. The quality and the distribution of the various kinds of land are complex and uneven. Although China is rich in forests, grazing, and arable land compared to the rest of the world, its 1 billion population makes the land a limited resource. The limitations of the land are also seen in soil erosion, soil that is increasingly turning into sand, and deforestation. Water resources are not considered scarce, yet compared to the rest of the world, it is limited. Its distribution is very uneven, with more water in the east and west, and less in the north and south. In the southwest mountainous border regions, for instance, water is abundant, but the population and arable land there is such that the demand for water is low. Moreover, droughts and heavy precipitation make the annual water supply unpredicatable. The demand for water becomes increasingly greater as agricultural production develops further, the population increases and as the cities continue to expand. living matter as a resource includes all the animal and plant life that is necessary for livelihood, but only forests and grasslands are discussed here. China's forests, if their use is not abused, can serve as a continuous supply for manufactured products. But its distribution is uneven and sparse. Population control will be ineffective if the forests are not replenished and developed. Grasslands are the primary source for animal products. The natural grasslands, found mainly in the north and west, are not as productive as that of other nations due to the nature of China's topography, the vagaries of climate, and deterioration. Energy, the source for fuel, includes such natural resources as coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydraulic, and solar power. China is among the world's richest in energy resources, yet the supply is sometimes insufficient when spread among 1 billion people.     

江苏省民办养老机构发展现状、困境及出路

近些年来,民办养老机构逐步兴起,并在几年间取得了较快发展,但在其发展过程中却面临诸多问题。文章在对苏南、苏中、苏北进行了对比调查的基础上对目前江苏省民办养老机构的政策支持、机构数量及规模、设施及人员配备和服务内容等进行了描述,分析当前养老机构面临的政策支持不足、供需存在矛盾以及专业人才供给不足等问题,并结合江苏省民办养老机构的发展状况,提出苏中、苏北地区应首先加大政策落实力度,苏南地区应针对民办养老机构发展过程中存在的问题进行政策上的＂各个击破＂,同时建议民办养老机构加强创新服务理念,在管理体制、服务内容、人才使用、硬件设施等方面增强自身竞争力。     

基层计生专干的离职意愿及其影响因素--基于湖北、山东、甘肃三省调研数据

利用三个省1635名基层计生专干调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归分析方法,考查受教育程度、家庭年收入、工资补贴、医疗保险、养老保险、培训次数、日平均工作时间、工作难度和干群关系9个变量与基层计生专干离职意愿之间的关系.研究结果显示,以上变量中工资补贴、养老保险、医疗保险对不同基层计生专干群体的离职意愿均有显著负向影响,且据此结论提出两点降低基层计生专干离职意愿的政策建议.     

一定范围内奥肯定律失效原因的初探

本文通过对中美德日英意等六国在1983年以来失业率与GDP增长率之间关系的实证分析,利用SPSS11.0软件得出相应Pearson相关系数,推断奥肯定律在一定范围内出现了失效现象。并运用技术进步,人力资本和资本深化等使要素生产率提高的因素,结合美国实际为例进行分析,找出其失效的主要原因,最后根据中国的特殊国情,对奥肯定律在中国出现偏差现象的原因作了进一步的探讨。     

20世纪90年代我国丧偶人口状况分析

本文利用“四普”和“五普”资料,对我国20世纪90年代丧偶人口这一特殊群体进行分析。发现我国丧偶人口在年龄上出现一定程度的“老化”,在性别上呈现男性化的倾向。城乡丧偶率在不断扩大,农村丧偶老人较城市丧偶老人而言有更大的增长。女性丧偶人口的整体文化程度仍然低于男性,随着受教育水平的升高,女性和男性丧偶人口的差别越来越大,越来越多的女性丧偶人口处于文盲半文盲状态。不同职业的丧偶率差异较大,就业层次越低,丧偶率越高。随着社会的发展,不同职业人口的丧偶率差距渐渐缩小。不同年龄的丧偶人口在家庭规模分布上差异较大,丧偶人口居住的家庭在不断小型化。     

中国农民工“半城市化”的成因、特征与趋势：一个综述

中国农民工＂半城市化＂已经成为一种普遍的社会现象。回顾已有研究,文章归纳了农民工＂半城市化＂的成因在于城乡二元分割的户籍制度、城市倾向的公共政策、人力资本不足、社会资本缺乏和其他社会文化因素。受这些因素影响,进城农民工在地域、非农就业、居住、公共服务、生活消费、心理认同和政治权利方面表现出城市化的不彻底性。在趋势上,由于渐变的制度环境和城市性累积后的阶层分异,农民工＂半城市化＂虽是普遍的、长期的,但已在趋弱、且现加速之势。     

African population in history]

The growth rate of the African population has been fluctuating throughout history, affected by political, social, and economic events. 6000 years ago, the majority of the population was based in North Africa, because farming had been developed there. However, between the 11th and the 16th centuries, there was a constant decline in the population of that region, due to invasions from Europe and the black plague. During the same period, the population in the area south of the Sahara grew rapidly, as people there had gone into the iron tool period and farming had been developed. From the 16th to the mid-17th Century, population growth was considerable in Africa; more people had learned the technology of irrigation, corn and potatoes had been introduced from South America, and colonialism was not yet an issue. From the mid-17th to the mid-19th Century, there was no growth, due to the slave trade and wars between tribes. One estimate sets the direct and indirect loss during this period, as a result of the slave trade, at 100 million people. From the 1850s to the end of World War I, population growth started up again, chiefly influenced by the fact that the slave trade had essentially come to a half and modern medical care had become available on the continent. However, in central Africa, the region which suffered the worst blow from the slave trade, growth was very slow, while in East Africa the population was declining because of wars between colonists and natives, as well as natural disasters. Increases in population during this period were a result of immigration from Europe and India. From the end of World War I to the present, growth has been rapid, given improvements in medical services and standards of living, while most of the former colonies became independent after the 1950s. Consequently, almost all African countries are under great pressure now with regard to their populations.     

海外智力回流的复合动力模型与行动类型——基于中国留学生归国动因的历史检视

影响智力行动者作出回流决策的动力来源和动力方向是多样性的,包括来自东道国的粘力和斥力、母国的拉力和推力,以及第三国的吸力;而且作用机制也是多元化的,既有经济驱动力(包括工资水平、就业机会、经济前景、购买力等),也涉及制度、网络、文化、生命周期等驱动力。作为理性行动者,智力迁移者们的回流决定主要是因为他们明确感受到来自母国的拉力(PS-PR),或者来自母国的拉力明显强于来自东道国的粘力(PS>PL)。同时文章认为,智力行动的最终回流决策事实上并不都是经济理性行动,还涉及制度强制驱动型、政策诱导型、移民网络驱动型、文化价值驱动型等社会理性行动。最后,基于中国留学生回流历史,分析不同发展阶段智力回流的主要动机和行动类型。研究发现,在长达170余年的中国海归史中,海归们的回流动机表现出多元化特征,并且在不同发展阶段呈现出不同的行动类型,具有明显的政治性、社会性和复合性,其中在限制性流动阶段,海归回流是以制度强制驱动型为主;在自由性流动阶段,海归回流动力来源表现更为多元,包括经济驱动型、政策诱导型甚至爱国情感驱动型等。     

健康投资对人口老龄化的影响分析——基于人口均衡发展的视角

健康投入的快速增长将对人口老龄化发展产生重要影响。基于人口均衡发展的视角,研究发现,健康投入对老龄化的影响作用不仅仅体现在老年人口数量方面,还体现于老年人口的结构,诸如年龄、性别、城乡状况等方面,进而会使未来的老龄化社会出现规模老龄化、高龄老龄化、性别失衡老龄化以及农村健康不安全老龄化等新的特征,我国老龄化问题亦将由数量压迫型向数量增长和结构失衡并存型转变。而对老年人口实施健康和人力资源管理,推进城乡健康公平则是应对未来老龄化问题的重要举措。     

西北五省省会城市间居民收入现状调查分析

实施西部大开发战略以来,西北地区经济发展迅速,西北五省省会城市居民收入明显提高,但各省会城市间居民收入差距却进一步扩大。本文依据2007-2012年的经济数据,运用统计分析方法,对西北五省省会城市间居民收入进行调查、比较和分析,结果表明：西北五省省会城市间居民收入差距主要由经济基础、对外开放程度、人力资本投入、金融发展程度、地理位置和自然资源等因素造成,并根据分析结果提出缩小西北五省省会城市间居民收入差距的政策建议。     

Socio-Economic Disparities in the Development of the Romania’s Border Areas

The Romanian border areas include 898 Local Administrative Units 2 (LAU2), of which 88 are urban and 810 rural. Romania has borderline with the following countries: Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine, Hungary, of which 63.5 % is Non-European Union boundary. According to the population structure, 51.6 % of the total population is urban and the rest of 48.4 % is rural. In order to assess the socio-economic territorial disparities in the development of the urban space of Romanian border areas, several research stages were carried out: selecting 22 relevant statistical indicators, analyzing territorial disparities, standardizing the absolute values of the indicators, grouping the elementary indicators by 7 multiple indicator clusters (secondary indexes) in order to reflect the main socio-economic development aspects: (1) housing, (2) public utilities infrastructure and green areas, (3) health, (4) labour market, (5) demography, (6) education and (7) local economy. Finally, the authors were able to compute secondary indexes and the Index of Socio-Economic Development as Hull Score with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 14, revealing the levels of socio-economic development (high, average and low). Generally, the outcomes of the current study are in line with Romania’s complex socio-economic disparities, rooted in the historic background of the country. Spatially, the economic development follows a West–East direction, the less developed areas being concentrated in the Eastern and Southern part of the country.     

依赖与脆弱性：农民养老问题的一个实证分析——基于全国十个省份1000余位农民的调查数据

文章基于2009年全国十个省份30个行政村1000余位农民的调查数据，从“依赖性一脆弱性一养老困境”的逻辑关系出发．以农民养老的经济依赖途径为切入点。利用Multinomial Logistic回归模型，实证分析了农民养老的脆弱性及其影响因素。结果显示，那些同时具备女性、年龄较大、养儿防老观念比较强、家庭收入比较低、没有儿子、家庭整劳力比较少、纯农户和所在村经济情况比较差特征的农民，是依赖性最强的农民，他们面临的养老脆弱性程度也最高。由于现实生活中。全部具备上述所有条件的农民毕竟是少数。但农村社会政策刺定部门可以根据农民满足上述条件的多寡．来判断其养老脆弱性程度的高低。并以此为依据选择农村社会政策的重点关注对象。