Does Projecting Enrollments by Race Produce More Accurate Results in New Jersey School Districts?

Since different races have unique fertility rates and migration patterns, performing school district enrollment projections by race and aggregating to a total may be more accurate than performing enrollment projections with all races combined. Twelve school districts in New Jersey of varying overall size and majority race percentages were used in this study to determine whether projecting enrollment by race or with all races combined is more accurate. Using historical enrollment data for a five-year period, the Cohort-Survival Ratio method was employed to project enrollment for a four-year period, 2003–04 through 2006–07. Projected enrollments were compared to actual enrollments in each district for both methods used for the purpose of determining whether district building capacity would be exceeded. Enrollments computed were district totals and enrollment by elementary, middle, and high school configurations. Percent differences were calculated for each district for the projection time period. The results showed that the projections with all races combined had lower percent differences as compared to the projections that were performed by race, particularly for smaller districts. However, the findings also showed that projecting enrollment by race might be suitable for larger districts with low majority race percentages. The results also demonstrated that projections by race are greater in magnitude than those projections performed with all races combined, which corroborates an earlier assertion by Keyfitz.     

Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts

This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

Communist and non-communist Europe: Functional differentiation, 1970–1985

Examining four variables related to quality of life in the respective societies — the value of international trade in U.S. dollars, air passenger mileage, total school enrollments and life expectancy — this study distinguishes several Communist Eastern European states from several Non-Communist Western European states over four time intervals: 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985. The method employed is discriminant analysis. The degree of distinction achieved with the four variables is remarkably clearcut and does not appear to be the simple consequence of different levels of economic development.     

Methods for gauging the target populations that community colleges serve

For many community colleges, expanding enrollment demands coincide with shrinking resources, confronting policymakers with multiple competing constituencies of discouraged college-goers. At issue are whether community college enrollments are keeping pace with local growth among the subpopulations that typically attend community colleges; how enrollment levels might differ had participation rates remained unchanged; and which specific population groups, in which subareas of an overall region, are most affected by funding constraints. These issues focus attention on identifying and measuring the diverse populations such colleges serve. We present methods for tracking those populations (1) to gauge how completely (or incompletely) the local community college-going population is enrolling in various campuses, and (2) to delineate the functional service areas of individual campuses. Our methods have applicability to the needs of community college systems generally, especially where the size and geographic distribution of their populations are changing significantly through, for example, immigrant influx and regional expansion. These methods and measures add to the applied demographer’s repertoire of techniques for strengthening local decision-making.     

Educational reversals and first-birth timing in sub-saharan africa: A dynamic multilevel approach

In many areas throughout sub-Saharan Africa, young adult cohorts are less educated than their predecessors because of declines in school enrollments during the 1980s and 1990s. Because a woman with little education typically becomes a mother earlier and has more children than one with better education, and because of a similar well-established relationship between current education and current fertility at the societal level, one might expect such education reversals to raise fertility. However, if there is an additional negative effect of low educational level among currently young women compared with that in the past, which would accord with ideas about the impact of relative deprivation, the total effect of an education reversal may run in either direction. This possibility has not been explored in earlier studies, which have taken a more static approach. We focus on the initiation of childbearing. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 16 sub-Saharan African countries with multiple surveys, we estimate a fixed-effects multilevel model for first births that includes the woman's own education, community education, and community education relative to the past. There are negative effects of individual and community education, but no effect of relative education. Thus we conclude that education reversals do seem to speed up entry into parenthood.     

Forecasting enrollments during court-ordered desegregation

Distinctive issues arise when a demographer must forecast enrollments in a context of court-ordered desegregation. The key issue studied here is whether magnet schools have strengthened a district's overall attractiveness to enrollees from outside or merely siphoned students away from other nonmagnet schools within the district, without any real districtwide enrollment gain. To clarify this issue, I analyze patterns of change in grade progression rates over several years as magnet schools were phased in at a large urban school district. Generally, magnet schools induced little actual gain, merely slowing the overall weakening of districtwide retention. These findings furnished an important reality check on the judgment for crafting appropriate forecasting assumptions and the resulting forecast proved reasonably accurate.     

Education,employment, and fertility in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in reproductive behavior

This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city with a population of roughly four million. We look at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, abortion, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence), using data from a 1990 survey of reproductive-age women. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by modern sector employment in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well. The results suggest that modern contraception and abortion are alternative fertility control strategies in Kinshasa, with abortion appearing to play an important role in contributing to the observed fertility differentials by education and employment. The dramatic increases that have taken place in women's access to secondary and higher education are likely to reduce fertility in the future, while the effects of Zaire's current economic and political crisis are uncertain. Our findings are consistent with some of the arguments of Caldwell et al. (1992) on a new type of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. If Zaire seeks to lower fertility, policy efforts should be made to soften the impact of economic crisis on school enrollments and enhance opportunities for young women to remain in school, at least well into the secondary level. Policy should also seek to promote more effective marketing and delivery of modern family planning services, so as to induce women to substitute modern contraception for abortion as a means of controlling their fertility.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

Immigration,ethnicity, and the loss of white students from California public schools, 1990–2000

This article investigates whether and the extent to which “white flight” from Hispanic and Limited English Proficient (LEP) students has been occurring in California’s public schools and further, examines the level (school or district) on which “white flight” may operate. Using school-level administrative data from the California Department of Education from 1990 to 2000, we estimate exponential growth rate models of white enrollment with school-level fixed effects. The results shed light on the implications of immigration for school segregation in the United States. The analysis indicates that white enrollment declined in response to increases in the number of Spanish-speaking LEP and Hispanic students, and that “white flight” from LEP or Hispanic students occurred more at the district than the school level in the case of primary schools, and at the school level for secondary schools. In addition, schools with higher percentages of Spanish LEP students in the school than the district, and with higher percentages in the district relative to the county, experienced greater losses in white enrollments than other schools, thus suggesting that higher levels of segregation in the wider metropolitan area accelerate white flight.     

The strength of primordial ties: Suburban community adaptation to school system retrenchment

Communities and local schools are attached to one another for many other reasons than the purely instrumental objectives of educating children. These highly symbolic interpenetrations of community and school include considerations of diffuse communal identity, religion, and ethnicity. Taken together with different priorities about wider educational goals, these narrower community objectives for local schools put contradictory strains on community-school relations in the heated climate of increased community participation in contracting school systems. Competing claims about the central purposes of local schools become extraordinarily salient parts of the external environment of school districts experiencing contraction, and play a major role in the process of adapting school district organizations to conditions of decline. For many citizens the desire to preserve the local symbolic and non-instrumental roles of neighborhood schools, in particular, may at times outweigh the goal of maintaining quality educational service delivery as seen from the perspective of school managers. For other citizens, the protection of quality programs, serving their children as stepping-stones to the wider society, outweighs considerations of local neighborhood solidarity and identity in adapting to declining enrollments and fiscal strains in the schools.An earlier version of this article was delivered at the 1984 Midwest Sociological Society Annual Meeting in Chicago. I am grateful to Virginia Bartot, Sally B. Kilgore, Gerald D. Suttles, and an anonymous reviewer for comments and suggestions.     

村级女计生专干的困境分析

我国人口形势目前呈现出前所未有的复杂局面,人口计生工作重点难点在农村。根据实际需要。很多地方提倡每个行政村配备至少一名女性担任村级计生专干。当前研究界极少对该群体进行研究。处于人口计生网络网底的女性计生专干在工作中面临着工作不专、责任大权力小、招怨气、无保障等诸多困难。究其原因在于。她们时常面临角色冲突（边缘的工作角色、强者的社区期待、矛盾的家庭角色）;受传统的性别观和生育观束缚;相关政策有待完善;自身工作能力和素质有待提高等方面。由此建议。在村级女计生专干的队伍建设中完善培训机制、引入竞争机制、强化管理机制、落实待遇机制、创新激励机制。     

Estimatingdendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) daily infestation dynamics

Mathematical procedures are given to estimate infestation totals and daily life stage arrivals, departures, and mortality ofDendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann for an infested tree in the field. These estimates are based on minimal sample data and are designed to utilize all available information. Daily arrival estimates for larvae, pupae, and callow adults are obtained by indirect analysis without direct observation of these stages. The procedures are applied to 147 infested trees, and the results are transformed to a common time basis to obtain daily expectations by life stage for an “average” tree. These expectations suggest optimal times for field sampling or relative times of sampling when optimal times are missed. Expected daily arrival distributions by life stage for a single egg and a single attacking adult are given. Procedures are given for utilizing collateral information to obtain an infestation total and daily arrival estimates for a boundary life stage. The results of this study are applicable to anyD. frontalis field study, and the procedures given are applicable to any bark inhabiting insect having similar habits.     

Retrospective information on health status and its application for population health measures

Healthy life expectancies are almost always calculated by using health data from cross-sectional surveys. This type of calculation is done partly because data from longitudinal surveys are not always available, and when they are available, they are collected at intervals that are longer than one year. In such cases, collecting health information retrospectively for the years skipped by the survey is useful. The main purpose of this paper is to show how retrospective health information can be used to estimate life expectancies in different health states. Healthy life expectancies are estimated with and without using data on retrospective health information, and the corresponding estimates are compared. The two sets of estimates are similar. We conclude that retrospectively assessed health information based on a one-year recall period can be used to estimate years of life in various health states and that estimates based on such information will closely approximate estimates based on concurrent health information.     

Same-sex marriage and context-specific kinship terms

This study investigates whether married gays and lesbians in Massachusetts are using the kinship terms commonly associated with marriage in referring to and introducing their marriage partners and, if not, whether alternative terms are being used in a variety of social contexts. We demonstrate through survey and interview data that marriage-related terms are used discriminately, are consciously chosen, and are context specific. Choices are dependent on a variety of factors related to personal demographics, speech community associations, intimacy, identity, and safety. A significant difference in the use of terms after legal marriage has occurred suggesting a shift in attitude.     

Same-Sex Marriage and Context-Specific Kinship Terms

This study investigates whether married gays and lesbians in Massachusetts are using the kinship terms commonly associated with marriage in referring to and introducing their marriage partners and, if not, whether alternative terms are being used in a variety of social contexts. We demonstrate through survey and interview data that marriage-related terms are used discriminately, are consciously chosen, and are context specific. Choices are dependent on a variety of factors related to personal demographics, speech community associations, intimacy, identity, and safety. A significant difference in the use of terms after legal marriage has occurred suggesting a shift in attitude.     

Statistical analysis of occupancy rates for overdispersed populations by redistribution procedures: Application to the european corn borer EGG masses distribution

Summary Standard statistical analyses of distributions of individuals from contingency tables are generally invalid if the individuals are not distributed independently of each other. In this paper, we discuss a method of testing hypotheses about classification category occupancy rates for overdispersed population or for population whose individuals are distributed by groups rather than lonely. These methods are based on population redistribution simulations and provide valid, exact and powerful tests in situations for which classical methods are not appropriate. Illustrations are given from the European Corn Borer eggs data.     

The residential distribution of status groups in Puerto Rico’s metropolitan areas

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pattern of residential segregation of status groups in Puerto Rico’s three metropolitan areas. The findings showed that in all three areas: (1) as the social status distance between groups increases so too does the degree of dissimilarity of their residential distributions; (2) the status groups most residentially segregated are those at the top and at the bottom of the status pyramid; (3) the pattern of residential centralization of status groups for Ponce and Mayaguez are such that the highest status groups are the most centralized while the lowest status groups are the most decentralized, but in San Juan it is the highest status groups that are the most decentralized and the lowest status groups that are the most centralized. The data are from the 1960 census. Indicators of status employed are education, occupation, and income. Differences in findings about centralization between San Juan and the other cities are explained in terms of differential economic development.     

Birth spacing and child mortality in bangladesh and the Philippines

This analysis uses data from Bangladesh and the Philippines to demonstrate that children who are born within 15 months of a preceding birth are 60 to 80% more likely than other children to die in the first two years of life, once the confounding effects of prematurity are removed. The risks associated with short conception intervals are confined to children who are also high birth order; they persist in the presence of controls for prior familial child mortality, breast-feeding, mother's age, and socioeconomic status. In Bangladesh but not in the Philippines, these effects are confined to the neonatal period.