Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility

In a set of propositions on fertility transition, Peter McDonald recently proposed that the decline from replacement‐level fertility to low fertility is associated with a combination of high levels of gender equity in individual‐oriented institutions, such as education and market employment, and low levels of gender equity in the family and family‐oriented institutions. Similarly, the “second shift,” or the share of domestic work performed by formally employed women, forms a critical piece of current cross‐national explanations for low fertility. Building on this scholarship, the authors explore whether there is empirical evidence at the individual level for a relationship between gender equity at home, as indicated by the division of housework among working couples with one child, and the transition to a second birth. Results, based on a sample of US couples, indicate a U‐shaped relationship between gender equity and fertility. Both the most modern and the most traditional housework arrangements are positively associated with fertility. This empirical test elaborates the family‐fertility relationship and underscores the need to incorporate family context, including gender equity, into explanations for fertility change.     

Parental Leave Take-Up of Fathers in Luxembourg

The study uses administrative data from Luxembourg to investigate fathers’ decisions to use parental leave. We focus on two measures of opportunity cost: the difference between the parental leave benefit and the salary of the father and the mean salary growth for a period of 6 months for each father. The first measure captures the direct opportunity cost, while the second is a proxy for foregone promotion opportunities. We use Cox proportional hazards model for the analysis. The results suggest a negative relationship between foregone income and taking parental leave. Surprisingly, salary growth appears to be positively related to the hazard of taking parental leave. Coefficients of control variables are in line with previous findings: fathers are more likely to use parental leave if they work in larger organization and for the first child.     

Individual and Institutional Constraints: An Analysis of Parental Leave Use and Duration in Spain

This paper analyzes the extent to which individual characteristics, the workplace situation, and regional policies influence the use and duration of parental leave in Spain. The research is based on a sample of 125,165 individuals, and 6,959 parental leaves covered in the “Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales” (MCVL-2006). The MCVL consists of administrative register data, which include information from three different sources: The social security system, municipal and income tax Registers. We adopt a simultaneous equations approach to analyze the determinants of the use (logistic regression) and duration (event history analysis) of parental leave, which allows us to control for endogeneity and censored observations. Our results suggest that the Spanish parental leave scheme increases gender and social inequalities, insofar as it reinforces gender role specialization, and only encourages the reconciliation of work and family life among workers with a good position in the labor market (educated employees with a high and stable work status).     

Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries

The extent to which mothers progress to a second child varies greatly between European countries. Although both institutional and economic context are believed to be partly responsible for these differences, available research on economic conditions and fertility mostly focuses on first births and studies on family policy and fertility have hitherto insufficiently addressed population heterogeneity. Combining longitudinal microdata from the Harmonized Histories with contextual data on labour market uncertainty and family policy, this paper uses discrete-time hazard models to analyse the impact of economic and institutional context on second birth hazards of 22,298 women in 7 European countries between 1970 and 2002. Particular attention is paid to variation in the contextual effects by level of education. We find that aggregate-level unemployment and temporary employment reduce second birth hazards, particularly for low- and medium-level educated women. Family policies are positively related to second birth hazards. Whereas family allowances stimulate second births particularly among low educated mothers, the positive effect of childcare is invariant by level of education.     

Changing the Gender Balance in Caring: Fatherhood and the Division of Parental Leave in Norway

In this article, we study fathers’ use of parental leave in Norway, using register data from 1993 to 1997. In 1993, a special father’s quota (1 month) was introduced in the parental leave program. The father’s quota is a success in the sense that 85% of fathers entitled to the leave use it, but few take more than their quota (1 month). One policy intention was to make a real change in the gender balance in care. The analyses show that gender balance in breadwinning has a strong effect on fathers’ use of parental leave: controlling for parents’ educational level, labor market attachment and father’s income, we find that the more mothers contribute to the family economy and the more equalized their earnings are, the more parental leave fathers take.     

The Impact of Women's Employment on Second and Third Births in Modern Sweden

This paper demonstrates some striking and sometimes initially surprising differentials and developments in Swedish fertility patterns during the 1960s and 1970s. The surprise will often have been due to untenable preconceptions. For instance, we question the assumption that the opportunity cost of a second or third birth is necessarily higher for Swedish women with a better education, or otherwise with a firm position in the labour force than for others. In our opinion, the situation may plausibly be the reverse. Also, total time in the labour force has turned out not to be the useful predictor of demographic behaviour that economists seem to have expected. A more adequate summary of a woman's employment history should capture more directly her role orientation and any signals of changes in childbearing and employment plans. Her early demographic history seems to contain similar information for the analyst, manifested here as a strong influence of age at first birth and first inter-birth interval on third-birth intensities. All in all, a woman's personal values and life course strategy (whether deliberately chosen or pressed upon her by accident and circumstances) appear as the strongest determinants of her childbearing behaviour, while income effects and opportunity cost differentials are valuable concepts which provide an understanding of more marginal changes and marginal differences. Perhaps a main outcome of the many-faceted developments over the last quarter-century has been the emerging dominance of the two-child norm and the ability to live up to it, while more directly measurable influences have been reduced to mediators.     

Impact of a Reform Towards Shared Parental Leave on Continued Fertility in Norway and Sweden

Population Research and Policy Review - It has been argued that a generous family policy aimed at a gender-equal division of childcare and economic responsibility will have a positive impact on...     

The Parental Leave Benefit Reform in Germany: Costs and Labour Market Outcomes of Moving towards the Nordic Model

Germany is known to have one of the lowest fertility rates among Western European countries and also relatively low employment rates of mothers with young children. Although these trends have been observed during the last decades, the German public has only recently begun discussing these issues. In order to reverse these trends, the German government recently passed a reform of the parental leave benefit system in line with the model practiced in Nordic countries. The core piece of the reform is the replacement of the existing means-tested parental leave benefit by a wage-dependent benefit for the period of one year. In this paper we simulate fiscal costs and expected labour market outcomes of this reform. Based on a micro-simulation model for Germany we calculate first-round effects, which assume no behavioural changes and second-round effects, where we take labour supply changes into account. Our results show that on average all income groups, couples and single households, benefit from the reform. The calculation of overall costs of the reform shows that the additional costs are moderate. As far as the labour market behaviour of parents is concerned, we find no significant changes of labour market outcomes in the first year after birth. However, in the second year, mothers increase their working hours and labour market participation significantly. Our results suggest that the reform will achieve one of its aims, namely the increase in the labour market participation of mothers with young children.

Fragile Families in Quebec and the Rest of Canada: A Comparison of Parental Work-Life Balance Satisfaction

Population Research and Policy Review - We address how social policies and cultural context impact the association of marital status with parental work-life balance satisfaction. To accomplish this...     

Births that are Later-than-Desired: Correlates and Consequences

Population Research and Policy Review - Prior literature examining women’s evaluations of pregnancy timing has focused on pregnancies that are mistimed (i.e. earlier-than-desired) and...     

"单独二孩"与"全面二孩"政策家庭生育意愿比较及启示

生育意愿是影响实际生育水平的超前变量,为预测生育水平提供重要参数.通过对山东省符合"单独二孩"政策和"全面二孩"政策家庭的大样本生育意愿调查,结果显示,两类政策家庭的二孩生育意愿和理想子女数基本相同,且愿意生育二孩的主观因素、地区差异及户口性质、文化程度、现有1孩性别等对两类家庭生育意愿的影响是类似的;生育安排、不愿意生育的主观因素、属相偏好等则存在显著差异.二元Logistic回归模型模拟结果表明:现有1孩性别、年龄、地区因素、主观因素等对两类家庭二孩生育意愿均具有显著的影响;"全面二孩"政策家庭更主要从一个孩子的风险性方面考虑二孩生育,"单独二孩"政策家庭则更多从自身养老和精神需求的角度做出二孩生育选择.     

Parental divorce and subsequent disadvantage: A cross-cohort comparison

Although many studies have examined the link between parental divorce and subsequent well-being, some theories of the effects of divorce suggest that the negative associations should have declined over time. However, few studies have examined the extent to which the associations have remained stable over time. Using data from two British cohorts, we analyzed both shorter- and longer-term outcomes of children who experienced parental divorce and the extent to which the associations have changed over time. Estimating similar models for both cohorts, we found little evidence of any change in the size of the relationship as divorce became more commonplace.     

A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners: Prospects and Policies

In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid‐century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of electorates will become net beneficiaries of government expenditures, producing unprecedented changes in their political landscapes. We analyze three aspects of this phenomenon in Germany, Japan, and the United States.     

Parental underinvestment: A link in the fertility-mortality continuum

Selective parental investment in siblings has been used to describe differential mortality rates. Using data from 986 Filipino women who had an average of 4.8 live births, a LISREL and six sets of regression models support the hypothesis that fertility is linked to underinvestment and that mortality, as a consequence, is linked to high birth order. The analysis also identifies intervening factors associated with this relationship. Age of mother at childbirth showed a strong influence on the relationship of birth order and infant and child mortality; correlations are stronger among older than youger mothers. However, even after the effect of age of mother at childbirth was partialled out, the effect of birth order on infant and child mortality remained significant and substantial. The conclusion is that parental underinvestment represents a link between fertility and mortality during infancy and early childhood that has not been described previously. Policy makers appear to have overlooked parental underinvestment in favor of more obvious economic and health mediators.     

再论“小二胎”现象：区域比较的视角——以H省三个典型乡镇为例

本文利用H省三个典型乡镇的访谈资料与统计数据以区域比较的视角对“小二胎”现象进行了再研究。研究结果表明,三镇小二胎现象具有诸多共性,但也存在不少差异。各地都存在较强的男孩偏好和二孩偏好,加之政策环境在2002年的变化,使得此后各地都普遍产生小二胎现象。但是由于村庄社会结构的不同．男孩偏好和二孩偏好程度不一,所以各地的小二胎现象又表现出一定差异。小二胎现象不仅大幅提高了超生率和生育率,而且推高了出生性别比,因此应该引起相关部门的高度重视。在农民生育观念没有彻底转变的情况下,国家要赋予基层干部与政策要求相匹配的治理手段,以稳定我国来之不易的低生育水平。针对各地的区域差异,要采取分类治理的方略。     

More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States

This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty‐first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas (“counties”) compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child‐women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.     

政府管理中的公共政策分析--人口政策知识应用层面的探讨

长久以来,人口研究在人口政策的制定方面的应用情形并不十分理想.公共政策的制定需以各类知识为基础.政策分析的本质是理智思考与社会互动的结果,科学实证与价值规范相存,以及理论与专业并重.本文试图以公共政策分析为线索,介绍政策知识应用的概念、类型及相关理论,进而提出人口政策知识应用的建议,期望人口学界和政府在人口政策制定过程中能加强合作,提升人口政策的质量.     

Household fertility responses following communism: Transition in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

In central Europe fertility fell during transition from centrally planned to market oriented economies. Families reevaluated fertility plans facing new wages, reduced child-care subsidies, and economic uncertainty. Using micro-data from 1984 and 1993 in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, this paper relates fertility changes following Communism to wages, pricesand risks. Earnings have little impact on fertility timing during transition, though age, job uncertainty, and children conceived during Communism do. In the Czech Republic, changed fertility demand parameters account for much of thefall in fertility. In Slovakia a sizable proportion results from predictable responses to changed incentives.I would like to thank my Czech collaborators Pavel Mahonn, Petr Mateju, and Jiri Vecernk for enabling this empirical work to proceed; T. Paul Schultz, and Jenny Hunt and seminar participants at Yale University, the NEUDC, and the Population Association of America annual meetings and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. I am also indebted to the Mellon Foundation Area Studies Grant program for financial support allowing field work on this topic. I am wholly responsible for all errors. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Under the Radar: Parental Traffic Safeguarding and Automobility

Abstract

Research shows that parental mobility care of children has become a growing feature in many western cities, but parental traffic safeguarding has rarely been examined. Based on an ethnographic, comparative case study of two elementary (primary) schools located in Vancouver, Canada, this paper explores how auto-dominated urban environments intertwine with gender and other social inequalities to produce highly charged, variegated and contested parental safeguarding practices in the school journey. The paper also examines how parental traffic safeguarding is discursively and materially organized in relation to automobility and the social denial of its inherent dangers. Two themes (risky traffic spaces and parental traffic safeguarding strategies) illustrate the ways in which parents practice traffic safeguarding in specific contexts and how as part of domestic labour, their practices contribute to automobility and its illusion of safety.