Immigration Selection and the Educational Composition of the US Labor Force

Immigration policy is often viewed as an important regulator of the flow of labor and human capital into the labor market. In the US context, this perspective underlies efforts to raise the educational levels of newly admitted US immigrants, which has been proposed through a variety of mechanisms. Yet it remains unclear whether and under what circumstances such changes would significantly raise the educational level of the US labor force. We use a microsimulation model to evaluate the effects of various policy proposals that would seek to admit more highly educated immigrants. Results suggest that adopting a Canadian-style admissions policy that explicitly selects immigrants based on educational attainment would lead to a better educated labor force, especially among immigrants and their descendants. Eliminating all unauthorized immigration or family reunification and diversity admission categories, however, would have minimal impact. Additionally, the effects of all policy scenarios on the educational composition of the entire labor force are likely to be modest and would be conditional on the continuation of intergenerational mobility and high levels of immigration.     

Immigration and free trade with Mexico: protecting American workers against double jeopardy

Free trade may well increase immigration from Mexico to the United States before ultimately slowing it down. Rapid population growth, unemployment or underemployment of half the labor force, and vast ethnic and kinship links to the United States have given Mexican migration a stubborn momentum. Increased prosperity from free trade will give many would-be migrants the means to resettle in the U. S. Foreign competition will displace Mexican workers in small farms, state-owned enterprises, and less competitive industries, forcing some to migrate. The noneconomic incentives and expectations driving migration will also remain strong. Mexicans may see free trade as making the border a mere formality or as conferring an entitlement to live in the United States. On the U. S. side, free trade may well deepen the government's traditional complacency about border controls. Over the long-term, however, a successful free trade agreement could reduce immigration by improving Mexico's democracy and the quality of life, diminishing the prospects of mass asylum movements from Mexico, creating a better climate for effective family planning, and luring marginal, immigration-magnet industries from the U. S. to Mexico. In the United States, less- skilled American workers in some industries and regions can expect job displacement and other disruptions from free trade. Particularly vulnerable will be workers in perishable crop agriculture, border retail trade, construction, apparel, and light manufacturing such as furniture, auto parts and glass. Continued heavy immigration of Mexican and other foreign workers into those industries and communities will further impede the adjustment of resident workers by competing for jobs and consuming public resources needed for retraining and job search. To ease the adjustment of displaced workers, the U. S. must make Mexico's cooperation in restraining immigration a condition for free trade. Mexico's cooperation should include enforcement of its own laws against clandestine border crossing; action against alien smugglers, document forgers and transiting illegal aliens from Central America; and curbs on the reentry of aliens deported from the United States. U.S. initiatives that would cushion vulnerable American workers against the added disruption of immigration would be: better identification and screening of applicants for public assistance; tightened enforcement of safety and labor standards in immigrant-impacted firms and provision of legal workers to such firms; protection of public assistance resources through better screening and identification of applicants; and curbs on imports of temporary foreign workers for firms that will now have access to Mexican labor in Mexico. Finally, the United States must consistently press Mexico for higher safety, environmental and labor standards at the workplace to improve the job satisfaction and quality of life of working Mexicans who might otherwise migrate, as well as to narrow Mexico's labor cost advantages over the United States.     

Age structure of the workforce in growing and declining industries: evidence from Hong Kong

Industry-specific human capital reduces the incentive for older workers to leave declining industries and raises the incentive for younger workers to join growing industries. Using the industry restructuring experience of Hong Kong, we find that a 1% increase in employment share of an industry is associated with a 0.60-year decrease in the average age of its workforce. The relationship is more pronounced among less educated workers, who have less general human capital, and male workers, who are more committed to the labor force, than among well educated workers and female workers.     

劳动力供求形势转折之下的就业结构与产业结构调整

从2004年开始,随着"民工荒"的出现,中国劳动力供求形势发生重大转折,劳动力短缺的形势越来越严峻,覆盖面越来越广。因此,需要对过去的有关学术观点、政府政策进行重新审视和调整。本研究认为,从长期趋势看,第三产业对就业的影响程度最大,吸纳就业能力最强,但第二产业的就业贡献率和就业弹性指标快速上升,甚至超过第三产业,"民工荒"在第二产业中表现得更加突出;虽然第一产业目前仍是就业人数最多的产业,但由于农村人口结构中青壮年及新生人口比例的不断下降,青壮年劳动力供给不足将成为长期趋势,农村剩余劳动力转移的潜力已经不大。对此,应优先满足第三产业的劳动力需求,通过大力提高劳动生产率来实现第二产业的发展,并推动产业结构调整,适度控制劳动密集型产业盲目扩张的趋势,缓解用工需求不断扩大的趋势;同时,大力发展知识、技术密集型产业,为大学生提供更多的就业机会,缓解大学生就业难。     

The ambiguities of U.S. temporary foreign worker policy

Expansion of temporary worker programs has figured prominently in recent proposals to reform United States immigration policy. The Florida sugar cane industry has been using foreign workers from the English-speaking Caribbean since 1943. The 8000 to 9000 workers annually admitted under section H-2 of the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act to cut cane constitute the largest legal nonimmigrant labor force in the United States. Examination of the Florida H-2 program reveals that existing temporary worker policy is ambiguous, if not contradictory, on the issues of the displacement of domestic workers; the characteristics and value of H-2 workers; their impact on local communities in the United States; and the effects of seasonal labor migration on the migrant and his country. Suggestions for improving policy include strengthening of statutory guidelines and administrative agencies, adoption of a more market-sensitive adverse effect wage rate, making farm labor more attractive to American workers, removing distinctions between foreign and domestic workers, and measures to improve the lot of the migrant and his home society.This article is drawn from a study funded by a grant from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD-14277-01). The Center for Latin American Studies and the Division of Sponsored Research of the University of Florida provided additional financial support for field work in the Caribbean. Fuller discussions of the results are found in McCoy (1984a), McCoy and Wood (1982) and Wood and McCoy (forthcoming). The author would like to acknowledge the suggestions of Jose Alvarez, Robert Bach, Marian Houston, Steve Sanderson and Charles Wood, his collaborator on the larger project. The comments of David North and especially Edwin Reubens on an earlier version, presented at the 1984 meeting of the American Political Science Association, are also appreciated.     

负担还是红利：新疆人口迁入与经济增长关系的量化研究

针对新疆人口净迁入急剧减少、人才流失加剧、劳动力出现有限供给,政府劳动力政策出现偏差等现象,分别从贡献率与边际效应两个视角对人口迁入与经济增长的关系进行了量化研究。根据改进后的经济增长率分解法测算了人口迁入对经济增长的贡献率后发现,1978-2013年,人口净迁入使新疆经济年均增长1个百分点。根据新古典经济增长核算理论与拓展的C-D生产函数测算了劳动力对经济增长的边际效应后发现,人口净迁移率每提高1个百分点,经济增长率可以提高0.24个百分点。量化研究的结果表明,新疆一直以来是我国主要的人口迁入地区,人口迁入并不构成新疆经济发展的负担,反而为经济发展带来了红利。     

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.     

Population change in Meso-America: The Tip of the demographic Iceberg

This paper examines the demographic situation in Mexico and Central America (Meso-America) and looks at the momentum for growth implied by recent population shifts. Despite successes in reducing fertility levels in many Meso-American countries, the dramatic declines in mortality among infants and children have given rise to a "death dearth" that is contributing to a new "baby boom" in these countries; thus our subtitle, "The Tip of the Iceberg."The impacts of such population growth on education, the economy and migration are considered in some detail. The anticipated inability of country economies to provide jobs for the thousands of young adults entering the labor force in future years could result in significant increases in the number seeking to migrate in a northerly direction. Thus, the United States is also vitally interested in the demographic shifts taking place south of its border.The need for a more unified regional approach to some of the social and economic problems facing these nations is pointed out as is the need for a more rational immigration policy on the part of the United States in light of the potential increase in immigration in future years.     

Immigration to the U.S.: the unfinished story

Annual totals of new immigrants and refugees in the US may now be up to the record highs of over a million immigrants counted in 6 years between 1905 and 1914. Since 1979, legal immigrants have averaged 566,000 a year (570,009 in 1985), newly arrived refugees and asylees approved have averaged 135,000, and the "settled" illegal immigrant population is growing by up to 1/2 million a year, according to some estimates. 1/2 of illegal immigrants are persons who entered the US legally but then overstayed the terms of temporary visas. Immigration and Naturalization Service apprehensions of illegal aliens, projected at a record 1.8 million for fiscal year 1986, indicate a sharp increase in illegal border crossers, driven by Mexico's and Central America's mounting population and economic pressures and lured by the prospect of jobs with employers who through a loophole in US immigration law can hire illegal aliens without penalty. The Census Bureau estimates that net immigration now accounts for 28% of US population growth and will account for all growth by the 2030's if fertility stays at the current low 1.8 births per woman. Public opinion strongly favors crubs on illegal immigration and legalization of illegal aliens long resident in the US, and in 1986 Congress enacted legislation to reduce illegal immigration to the US. Asians and Latin Americans now make up over 80% of legal immigrants and Latin Americans comprised 77% of illegal immigrants counted in the 1980 census. Asians far outstrip Latin American immigrants in education, occupational status, and income and might be expected to assimilate in the same manner as earlier immigrant group did. Hispanic immigrants so far appear to favor cultural pluralism, maintaining their own culture and the Spanish language. Research in California indicates that recent Hispanic immigrants (legal and illegal) have helped preserve low-wage industries and agriculture. Illegal immigrants appear to draw more on public health and education services than they pay back in taxes. With or without immigration reform, population and economic pressures in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin ensure that the numbers of people seeking to enter the US are only likely to increase.     

Immigration restrictions and the American worker: An examination of competing interpretations

This paper examines three competing interpretations of support for tougher immigration restrictions. One interpretation posits that tighter restrictions are favored by those in direct competition with immigrants for jobs, namely low or unskilled workers who toil in labor markets that are low-paying and often unstable. A second line of thought is that greater restrictions are favored by workers who perceive immigrants as potential competitors in labor markets, even though there may be no real basis for such perceptions. The third interpretation explaining support for tougher restrictions is rooted in a broad based cultural nativism or nationalism, and relies heavily on traditional theories of prejudice and discrimination. Data for the study are derived from the 1992 National Election Survey, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Contrary to theoretical expectations, neither actual nor perceived economic insecurity explain variations in current levels of support for tougher immigration restrictions among American workers. The theoretical significance of the findings are discussed and elaborated. Suggestions are made for future research in this important area of inquiry.     

The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force: A Microsimulation Projection

This article charts the future transformations of the Canadian labor force population using a microsimulation projection model. The model takes into account differentials in demographic behavior and labor force participation of individuals according to their ethnocultural and educational characteristics. As a result of a rapid fall in fertility, the Canadian population is expected to age rapidly as baby boomers start to retire from the labor market in large numbers. In response to declining fertility, Canada raised its immigration intake at the end of the 1980s, and immigration is now the main driver of Canadian population growth. At the same time, immigrants to Canada are becoming more culturally diversified. Over the last half century, the main source regions have shifted from Europe to Asia. Results of the microsimulation show that Canada's labor force population will continue to increase, but at a slower rate than in the recent past. By 2031, almost one third of the country's total labor force could be foreign‐born, and almost all its future increase is expected to be among university graduates, while the less‐educated labor force is projected to decline.     

Population pressures in Latin America

In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.     

The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom

This article is concerned with the economic effects of immigration. The emphasis is on Britain, but extensive material is also provided on other countries. Since 1997 a new British immigration policy has displaced previous policy aims, which were focused on minimizing settlement. Large-scale immigration is now seen as essential for Britain's economic well-being, and measures have been introduced to increase inflows. The benefits claimed include fiscal advantages, increased prosperity, a ready supply of labor, and improvements to the age structure. Fears that large-scale immigration might damage the interests of unskilled workers are discounted. This article examines these claims. It concludes that the economic consequences of large-scale immigration are mostly minor, negative, or transient, that the interests of more vulnerable sections of the domestic population may well be damaged, and that any economic benefits are unlikely to bear comparison with immigration's probable substantial and permanent demographic and environmental impact. Our claims are in line with those from other developed countries.     

The missing bridge: How immigrant networks keep Americans out of dirty jobs

Immigrants are over half of the new entrants in occupations in southwestern labor markets that range from farmworker to janitor to engineering professor. This paper explains how the availability of immigrant workers changes employment practices in ways that push and pull Americans out of jobs which remain "dirty" or unattractive to U.S. workers. An immigrant network that eventually takes over an enterprise's jobs can begin by accident or design. Accidental immigrant takeovers begin with pioneer workers who persist in high turnover jobs such as seasonal farmworker. These workers offer to bring their friends and relatives to fill vacancies as they occur. Takeovers by design sometimes follow a strike in which immigrants are recruited to be strikebreakers. After immigrants dominate the workforce, the language and culture of the workplace change in ways that make American workers feel out-of-place. Employers feel under no compulsion to upgrade dirty jobs as long as immigrant workers are available, so the technology and productivity of immigrant-enclave jobs tend to be frozen, guaranteeing that dirty jobs get less and less attractive to Americans. Indeed, industries dependent on immigrant workers often turn protectionist when they realize that even low immigrant wages are not sufficient to ensure their survival in the global marketplace. In this way, Americans lose out in several ways: They must compete directly with immigrant workers in the labor market, and then pay higher prices for the goods produced by immigrant workers because the industries preserved by them demand protection from imports. This paper will explore the manner in which immigrant networks displace Americans from dirty jobs and how the availability of immigrant workers can preserve sunset industries which turn protectionist. Examples from fruit and vegetable agriculture, garments, and shoes will be discussed.     

Economic aspects of Singapore's selective family planning policy

In the mid 1980s Singapore instituted a selective family planning policy which encouraged poorly educated women to prevent pregnancy while university graduates were discouraged from using family planning. The intent of this policy was to restructure the population and the economy into a more skill-intensive industrial society and to produce effective leaders for the future governing of the country. Monetary incentives were offered to both groups of women for their compliance with the policy, including grants to poor women agreeing to undergo steriliaztion. This study undertakes a cost benefit analysis of this family planning policy, taking into account parameters of economic growth, marginal value product of labor, and the consumption levels. Results of this analysis suggest that society may benefit more by prevention the birth of a potential university student than by preventing the birth of a potential primary school graduate. However, this study does not take into account the value of educated citizens in technical advancement which would raise the productivity of the uskilled workers in the country, nor some of the real economic conditions in Singapore such as the virtually unlimited availability of labor from other Asian countries (who come without dependents and are expatriated when they become unproductive). Training cost and the timing of benefits are critical to the outcome of this analysis. It is shown that, under some reasonable conditions, the selective family planning policy might not be economically warranted.     

The initial effects of immigration reform on farm labor in California

Agriculture was the major industry singled out for preferential treatment in the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986. Farmers argued that their traditional reliance on unauthorized workers and the seasonal nature of work in perishable commodities required extra time for them to adjust to immigration reforms.A February 1989 survey of California farm employers indicates that these employers had not yet adjusted to IRCA. Instead of revising their personnel policies to retain newly legalized farmworkers, farmers expected to hire more workers through labor contractors if the seasonal workforce contracts in the years ahead.     

山东丘陵地区农村剩余劳动力转移态势与路径探讨

根据对山东省丘陵地区临沭县的农户外出打工情况的抽样调查,研究发现:目前山东丘陵地区农村剩余劳动力外出打工情况是相当普遍的,打工对家庭的收入具有决定性的影响,打工的主要原因是城乡收入差距,其次才是劳动力剩余和年轻人渴望从事非农业生产等原因。存在缺乏双亲监督,留守儿童读书不理想的家庭约有20%。当地政府对农民外出打工起到的引导作用比较有限,调查中接受过政府培训或者由政府组织外出打工的农民仅约占20%。当地招商引资项目对就业的拉动效果不太明显,文章呼吁一定要注意发挥我国劳动力便宜的相对比较优势,走劳动密集型道路,以求拉动就业。关于劳动力转移的态势,研究发现,农村25岁以下,初中以上文化程度的劳动力供给已经出现逐年减少的趋势。估计在不久的未来,流向城市的农村剩余劳动力虽然总量上不会减少,但是真正能够融入城市工业化进程的农村年轻知识型劳动力(知识型在这里指初中以上文化程度)的供给会出现短缺。     

Evaluating public policy responses to the economic burden of population ageing with application to Australia

This paper reviews the issues in evaluating public policy interventions that are designed to address the economic burden of population ageing. It then briefly reviews the main public policy options with application to Australia. The economic burden of ageing is defined as the burden on national economic well-being over time and the extent to which this burden is shared between the public and private sectors. A key policy issue is the extent to which the economic burden of ageing should be spread out over present and future generations. This depends on how we value the economic well-being of future generations relative to our own, future projections of economic growth, and the rate at which our subjective sense of well-being improves with our living standards. The paper discusses policies to boost the labour force participation rates of older workers, measures to boost fertility and immigration policy. Also discussed are several policies to shift the burden of ageing from the public to private sectors: the establishment of government financial funds such as the Future Fund, superannuation policy, and health and aged care policy.     

Undocumented Mexican immigrants and the earnings of other workers in the United States

This article examines the effects of undocumented Mexican immigrants on the earnings of other workers in geographical labor markets in the Southwest. The number of undocumented Mexicans included in the 1980 census in southwestern SMSAs is estimated. We then estimate the parameters of three specifications of a generalized Leontief production function with various demographic groups as substitutable factors. The statistically significant effects of undocumented Mexicans on the earnings of other groups are positive, but of slight magnitude. Legal immigrants' effects on native white earnings, however, are small and negative. The results are consistent with the possibility that undocumented Mexican immigrants' jobs complement those of other workers. The implications for public policy concerns about the effects of illegal Mexican immigration are discussed.     

A brief for a tax-based U.S. immigration policy

This paper briefly reviews the present state of U.S. immigration policy from an economic perspective. It contends that the present system confounds two independent dimensions of immigration policy—residence and employment. It argues that far too much attention is paid to who is admitted to the U.S. and far too little to what people do once they enter. The proposed policy is a system of taxes and transfer payments designed to regulate the employment of foreign nationals and to compensate domestic workers who are adversely affected economically. The paper works out the economics of the tax and demonstrates that such a system could ideally remove all adverse economic effects of immigration.