考虑风险关联和决策者偏好的海外投资国家风险评估研究

国家风险是我国企业海外投资优先考虑的外部因素,其构成的多维度性、不同维度风险之间关联的客观存在性以及企业决策者差异化的偏好等特点,加剧了海外投资国家风险评估的难度。本文引入风险关联和决策者偏好,提出一种二元语义DEMATEL法、基尼系数客观赋权法与VIKOR法相结合的海外投资国家风险评估方法来量化风险关联,并从主客观集成视角确定风险评估指标权重,以期得到不同决策机制下的投资风险国别排序。随即,通过采集“一带一路”沿线63个国家的数据开展实证分析,验证所提出方法的有效性,并对结果进行分析与讨论。研究结果能够为海外投资区位选择提供必要的决策支持,也能够对我国企业海外投资风险防范、推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展有所裨益。     

基于AHP的灰色关联法在企业战略决策中的应用研究

针对企业战略决策中的战略方案选择定量化问题,建立拟选方案的评价指标体系。在此基础之上,把层次分析法的思想融入到灰色关联法之中,运用层次分析法确定评价指标的权值,以待选方案的关联度作为评价标准,建立战略决策模型。最后,结合实际案例,对模型的建立过程和步骤进行验证,并与层次分析法所得的结果进行比较,证明了模型的可行性和有效性,而且对多方案多指标的决策更能体现其客观性。     

考虑复杂关联情境的城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别方法研究

城市典型生命线以供热、电力、燃气系统为代表,具有公共性强、风险性高、关联性显著的特点。研究城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别问题对于相关部门防范风险具有重要意义,但现实中由多系统、多风险因素以及各类关联形成的复杂关联情境增加了解决该问题的难度。为此,本文首先构建了具有层级网络结构的风险因素识别框架,然后提出了一种考虑复杂关联情境的风险因素识别方法,将各专家针对系统关联和风险因素关联给出的语言评价信息转化为二元语义,并将决策试验与评价实验室（DEMATEL）法和Two-Additive Choquet（TAC）积分算子扩展到二元语义环境,进而实现各类关联的综合集成,从而确定风险因素的排序和归类,便于决策者研判风险根源、明晰风险因素本质。最后,以北京某样区为例验证了所提方法的潜在应用价值,并根据识别结果制定了针对性的风险防范策略,能够为相关部门联调联动开展风险防范提供决策支持。     

基于SWOT分析的企业专利战略制定研究

将SWOT分析运用到企业的专利战略制定中,通过对与企业制定专利战略相关联因素的分析,从中选择关键因素,确定S、W、O、T,进而进行专利战略匹配,实现以SWOT分析指导企业专利战略实践,提升企业专利战略工作管理品质的目的。     

ERM框架下企业的风险战略与核心竞争力研究

在ERM框架下,企业必须形成正确的风险战略,风险战略确定企业风险管理总体目标和控制性目标,指出实现目标的策略和途径,负责企业的发展安全,风险战略与发展战略、激励战略共同构成企业整体战略体系。公司治理结构、风险管理组织、风险管理文化是影响风险战略制定和实施的重要因素。企业发展要依靠核心竞争力,核心竞争力是企业整体战略的集中体现,风险战略保障核心竞争力的发展安全。     

考虑不同碳排放处理模式的动态供应商选择及采购批量问题研究

不同的碳排放处理模式及不确定的市场需求等因素影响下,如何选择供应商并确定采购批量直接影响企业的运营和效益。本文在多时间周期、多产品种类、多供应商及随机需求情形下,同时考虑不同碳排放处理模式,分析动态供应商选择及采购批量等最优决策问题,构建混合整数非线性规划模型。通过设计变异算子和扰动因子来改进粒子群算法,力求在短时间内求解大规模决策问题。针对不同规模供应商选择及采购批量决策问题,采用精确方法、近似方法和改进粒子群算法求解。数值实验验证了模型及改进粒子群算法的有效性和可行性,分析了碳税、碳交易价格及碳限额对供应链管理的影响,并给出了供应商选择及碳排放处理的决策参考建议。     

不确定环境下战略性债务融资与寡头竞争的互动研究

本文通过构建一个两阶段的博弈模型,考虑不确定环境下企业的产品市场竞争策略和资本市场上债务融资策略之间的内在战略关系,并在战略性债务融资的框架下,分析了市场进入中企业的竞争策略与融资策略的选择.得出二者之间存在双向互动关系的结论.     

企业多元化战略的选择分析

本文要通过交易费用理论和委托--代理理论分析企业多元化战略的选择;试图解释(1)不同多元化战略的经济利益和管理成本有何差异?(2)为什么企业会选择特定的初始战略?(3)是什么因素决定企业改变原来的战略?本文的目的是为企业在选择多元化战略时提供一个经济利益--管理成本的分析框架.     

运用经营协同效应对商业银行并购价值评估研究

在对商业银行并购进行并购决策时,需要决策者对目标企业和自身企业有非常明确的判断,或者在制定并购战略时要明确自身的战略目标。经营协同效应作为一种可以定性和定量提前考虑的因素,在商业银行并购战略的制定和实际并购操作过程中,可以为并购决策者提供一个比较好的并购框架。本文在对经营协同效应在商业银行并购作用分析的基础上,提出运用SWOT分析法对并购目标银行进行识别,提出运用经营协同效应模型对目标银行进行预评估,最后提出了运用经营协同效应对目标银行进行分析时注意的问题。     

基于供应链视角的并购谈判框架

在基于利润分配的供应链多边谈判环境中,探讨了买方与部分供应商并购的谈判框架.首先,分析了买方与单个供应商并购的情形.结果给出两种框架下各方所获利润,并进一步给出未参与并购的供应商互动下的均衡.其次,分析了买方与多个供应商并购的谈判框架.在买方与多个供应商同时并购和依次并购两种情形下,结果分别给出三种不同框架下各方所获利润.结论表明,并购过程中的供应链网络结构和相关企业互动削弱了并购协同下的买方利润,从而企业应谨慎选取并购战略及其分析框架以实现并购的战略目标.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.