Mortality Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Reassessment

"This study uses data on perceived and actual mortality risks to test several alternative Bayesian models of the factors influencing risk beliefs. The analysis...indicates that while the hazard rate for the individual age group is an influential factor, the overall population death rate and the discounted expected number of life years lost due to the cause of death are also influential in affecting risk perceptions.... The predictive power of a linear perception model increases with the level of the risk and is least accurate for very small risks."     

PATHOLOGIST AS GATEKEEPER: DISCRETIONARY DECISION-MAKING IN CASES OF SUDDEN INFANT DEATH

In many cases of unexpected infant death the cause of death cannot be ascertained. It has become convention to call such cases ‘SIDS’ (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). A simulation study of pathologists' decision-making found that there were significant differences in the procedure adopted and the diagnosis of cause of death in such cases. It was found that their decision-making was influenced by factors such as experience, training and most importantly, pathologists' own perception of their professional role. In an emotive area such as infant death the application of the SIDS label is frequently part of the social process of defining disease.     

Black-White Differentials in Adult Homicide Mortality in the United States

Objective . This article examines individual level black-white differences in adult homicide mortality. Homicide is a major social problem and a central cause of preventable death in the United States. A homicide not only claims one life prematurely but can also devastate a family, friends, and a neighboring community. Methods . We link eight consecutive years of the National Health Interview Survey (1987–94) to the Multiple Cause of Death file through the National Death Index (1987–97), and use Cox proportional hazard models to examine the role of social factors in black-white homicide mortality in the United States. Results . We find that individual level sociodemographic characteristics—age, sex, marital status, education, employment status, and geographic factors—explain almost 35 percent of the racial differences in homicide mortality. Conclusions . These results demonstrate the contributions that National Center for Health Statistics data can make to criminological literature and reveal the mechanisms through which blacks experience higher homicide mortality than whites. Such illumination may lead to a reduction in the fourth leading preventable cause of death in the United States.     

Background Risks and the Value of a Statistical Life

We examine the effects of background mortality and financial risks on an individual's willingness to pay to reduce his mortality risk (the value of statistical life or VSL). Under reasonable assumptions about risk aversion and prudence with respect to wealth in the event of survival and with respect to bequests in the event of death, background mortality and financial risks decrease VSL. The effects of large mortality or financial risks on VSL can be substantial, but the effects of small background risks are negligible. These results suggest that the commonplace failure to account for background risk in evaluating VSL is unlikely to produce substantial bias in most applications.     

When RIP means research in progress--the use of brain dead subjects in medical research

Recent research reported in a number of medical journals highlights some of the problems associated with performing experiments with human subjects who have been declared dead using the brain death criteria of death. These reports provide interesting illustrations of some of the real dilemmas involved in the regulation of human subjects experimentation. In particular, the traditional method of balancing risks and benefits in determining the ethical acceptability of research on human subjects is thrown into question. It is suggested that there should be a moratorium on the use of brain-dead subjects in research until some of the issues can be clarified and appropriate guidelines for the conduct of this research can be prepared.     

Measures of Mortality Risks

Different risks of death are not equivalent because of differences in timing. This paper develops measures of mortality risks that recognize the probability of death, the duration of life lost, and the role of discounting. These adjustments lead to a substantial reordering of the major causes of death. Recognition of duration-related issues explains much of the public's misperception of mortality risk probabilities, which may reflect duration-related concerns rather than biases in risk beliefs. Our estimates suggest that in forming their risk beliefs the public discounts years of life lost at a rate from 3.3–12.4 percent. Standardization of lifetimes at risk also alters the relative efficacy of regulatory policies for which we provide a variety of cost-effectiveness measures.     

Dread risks

It is a well-established fact that many people view the prospect of premature death by some causes with considerably more disquiet or “dread” than death by other causes. It is equally clear that for most people their personal risk of death by a given cause is also a matter of serious concern. This article reports the findings of a study aimed at estimating the effects of dread and personal risk of death by a specific cause on the willingness-to-pay based Value of Statistical Life (VSL) for that cause. JEL Classification J17     

School's out! Why earlier among children of lone parents?

The aims of this population-based study were to analyse educational attainment at ages 24–25 among children of lone parents in comparison with children living with two biological parents, to increase understanding of the factors that seem to be of major importance in increased risks of lower educational achievement and to examine how the life circumstances of non-custodial parents influence possible differences. We found that children who grew up with only one parent showed lower educational attainment than did children in two-parent families. Poorer educational performance on the part of the offspring of lone parents can be explained to a large extent by socio-economic disadvantage, especially a lack of economic resources. However, achievement varies according to cause of lone parenting, and findings strongly indicate that adjusting solely for custodial parents' circumstances may lead to under-estimation of the relationship. Lone parenting seems to have a more detrimental effect on girls' education, and also within groups of children with highly educated parents than among those with a relatively low level of education.     

Information,risk perceptions,and smoking choices of youth

Conventional wisdom maintains that youths take risks because they underestimate probabilities of harm. Presumably if they knew the true probabilities, they would behave differently. We used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to assess whether differences between subjective and objective probabilities that an adverse outcome to self will occur are systematically related to a harmful behavior, initiating smoking. We find that youths are generally pessimistic about probabilities of their own deaths and being violent crime victims. After smoking initiation, youths increase subjective probabilities of death by more than the objective increase in mortality risk, implying recognition of potential harms. Virtually all 12–14 year-olds know that smoking causes heart disease. The minority who believe that smoking causes AIDS are less likely to become smokers; i.e., risk misperceptions deter rather than cause smoking initiation. Messages designed to deter smoking initiation should stress other disadvantages of smoking than just probabilities of harm.     

Chemical Accidents in the United States, 1990–1996

Objective. Much of the empirical work on environmental justice centers on the geographic distribution of potential chronic health risks (e.g., planned toxic releases or treatment storage and disposal facilities). Far less attention has been devoted to the geographic distribution of acute health risks that cause immediate harm. The purpose of this work is to examine environmental justice in terms of potential acute health risks by examining the distribution of serious chemical accidents across diverse subpopulations. Methods. We draw upon 1990 census data for the United States to study the relationship between the racial, ethnic, and economic characteristics of census block groups ( N = 226,398) and the presence or absence of chemical accidents that caused at least one injury, death, or evacuation for the time period of 1990–1996. The data used to map the location of the chemical accidents were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's Accidental Release Information Program (ARIP) database. Results. Our results indicate that the acute risk associated with chemical accidents at fixed facilities is greater for individuals living in low–income census block groups, especially when comparisons are made within the counties where the chemical accidents occur. Our results concerning race and ethnicity are less consistent and somewhat weaker. Conclusions. Although these results do not show large and dramatic effects, as have often been found in the study of the social distribution of chronic environmental risk, they do stand as one of a relatively few social analyses of social variation in exposure to acute environmental risk.     

Pitfalls in Drawing Policy Conclusions from Retrospective Survey Data: The Case of Advertising and Underage Smoking

Measuring the impact of potentially controllable factors on the willingness of youth to undertake health risks is important to informed public health policy decisions. Typically the only data linking these factors with risk-taking behavior are retrospective. This study demonstrates, by means of a recent example, that there can be serious pitfalls in using even longitudinal retrospective data to draw conclusions about causal relations between potentially controllable factors and risk-taking behavior.     

Judgmental Discounting and Environmental Risk Perception: Dimensional Similarities, Domain Differences, and Implications for Sustainability

Environmental risks constitute a special category of risks because they often involve consequences that are highly uncertain, strongly delayed, occurring at distant places, and—therefore—mostly borne by others. Economic, decision–theoretic, and psychological research about the way people deal with such consequences is reviewed. Two major findings are presented: first, there is evidence that discounting mechanisms are stable across different preference dimensions (uncertainty, temporal, spatial, and social distance). Second, discount rates tend to vary across different problem domains (e.g., environmental vs. health vs. financial risks). In particular, it appears that temporal discounting is less pronounced for environmental risks than in other domains. Several factors are identified that affect the nature of the risk evaluation process, and it is argued that environmental risks differ from other risks on such factors. These environmental-risk characteristics may have important implications for policy strategies to promote environmental sustainability. Contrary to other domains, appealing to the public's long-term preferences may be successful. Also in policy making, insights from standard economic decision theory to environmental decision making should be applied with caution.     

Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part I—A Reassessment of the Previous Evidence

It is widely argued that individuals have biased perceptions of health and safety risks. A reconsideration of the best-known evidence suggests that this view is the erroneous result of a failure to consider the implications of scarce information. Our findings imply that the hypothesis that people make unbiased estimates of hazard rates fails to be rejected by the very data that were initially used to reject it. Thus, we are able to reconcile the alleged existence of widespread bias in risk perception with other findings that such bias is less apparent in the case of job-related hazards. The seeming bias in estimating population-average death rates and the lack of such bias in assessing job risks are two manifestations of the same behavior, which is the optimal acquisition of costly information.     

哲学创新漫议

哲学主要是“思”,作为马克思“思”的结果的马克思主义哲学,其理论“硬核”是“实践思维”;“回到马克思”既要回到马克思的理论文本,更要回到马克思的思维逻辑;只有努力建设和不断改善哲学创新的生态环境,才能锻造出真正反映时代精神精华的哲学。创新无论是对个人、民族、国家乃至整个人类来说,都是进步的巨大动力。但创新的实质是去想、去做前人从未想过、做过的事情,自然而然地与风险、失败甚至牺牲连在一起。这不仅需要创新者自身的不懈努力,更需要一个宽松的创新环境和制度安排。     

Child poverty in Taiwan during the global financial crisis: from the perspective of new social risks

The economic conditions of families with children during the 2008 financial crisis became worse. The factors affecting child poverty in Taiwan can be explained from the perspective of new social risks. This study analyzed the poverty reduction effects of public transfers and taxes in order to evaluate the government role in the economic downturn. From the viewpoint of the protection of children's rights, new policies must be created in response to new social risks and future financial crises.     

Queer Youth Space: A Protective Factor for Sexual Minority Youth

Physical, psychological, and social vulnerabilities of sexual minority youth are well documented. Yet factors that protect this population from these risks remain relatively unknown. Previous researchers suggest that (1) a sense of safety, meaningful relationships with others, and positive identity development are protective and (2) social support programs focusing on sexual minority youth (Queer Youth Space) have a positive impact. In this article, Queer Youth Space is explored as a program that may promote protective factors and mediate risks. Theories of attachment, self psychology, and social identity are applied to conceptualize Queer Youth Space and its protective roles. Implications for social work practice and research are discussed.     

On the Contingent Valuation of Safety and the Safety of Contingent Valuation: Part 2 - The CV/SG "Chained" Approach

This article reports the results of a study aimed at estimating a willingness-to-pay based value of statistical life for road risks using a multi-stage approach which involves "chaining together" responses to contingent valuation and standard gamble questions.The rationale for employing a multi-stage approach is to break the wealth/risk of death trade-off down into a number of conceptually manageable steps, thereby trying to attenuate the various biases that appear to be pervasive in responses to more direct contingent valuation questions in the health and safety field.     

Social risks and public pension in South Korea

This study investigated how traditional and new social risks have emerged in South Korea and how policies have coped with them, focusing on the public pension program. Using national statistics data and publicly published government reports, factors such as marital status, economic activity, and the insurance trend of the public pension by age and gender for the last decade were examined. Main results are as follows. Women's labor force participation has slightly increased; however, career discontinuity remains and new family risks have increased. Second, women's public pension coverage as a percentage of the employment rate has substantially increased, implying that old labor market risks have largely been reduced for female workers. Third, the public pension insured rate among male workers has decreased to a small degree, which implies that new labor market risks are increasing for male workers. Consequently, the gender gap in risk has been reduced; however, policies established to deal with new risks have introduced some gender effects     

公众对转基因作物的接受度及其影响因素:基于六城市调查数据的社会学分析

本文利用一项大规模的入户抽样调查数据,分析了中国公众对转基因作物的接受度问题。与以往基于“消费者行为研究”框架而采取“个体决策行为模型”的研究不同,本文从风险社会学的理论视角出发,试图发展一个“社会行动模型”的理论框架,以解释个体在“风险社会”中面对一项新技术时的决策行动受到哪些社会性因素的影响。结果显示,中国公众对推广种植转基因大米的接受度不高,与2002年相比有明显下降;传统的“个体决策行为模型”有一定的解释力,但其决策行为是基于有限知识基础上的“有限理性选择”,大众媒体的影响、对“专家系统”的制度性信任都是重要的影响因素。