Declining first-marriage rates in England and Wales: A change in timing or a rejection of marriage?

During the 1970s, first-marriage rates in many Western European countries declined sharply. We use two different methods (devised by Ryder and by Le Bras and Roussel) to assess how far the changes in first-marriage rates in England and Wales arise from a shift to marrying at later ages or from a decline in the popularity of formal marriage. The two methods yield consistent results, and indicate that the majority of young people in England and Wales will continue to marry but that during the 1970s many were postponing marriage. The pattern of cohabitation and prevailing attitudes to marriage are compatible with such a finding. Recent marriage patterns in England and Wales are found to differ from those in France and Sweden.     

Late fertility decline in the Netherlands: The influence of religious denomination,socioeconomic group and region

Both published results from the 1930, 1947, 1960 and 1971 censuses and unpublished ones are used to examine the influence that religious denomination, socio-economic group and region exerted on the fertility of marriages contracted between 1876 and 1959. A theory formulated by Lesthaeghe and Wilson on the relation between modes of production and secularization and the pace of fertility decline in Western Europe offers — in combination with van Heek's views on the special position of Dutch Roman Catholicism — a starting point for an explanation of why the fertility decline of Roman Catholics, self-employed and agricultural labourers lagged behind.     

Social-class inequality in infant mortality in England and Wales from 1921 to 1980

This paper examines the trend in social inequality in infant mortality in England and Wales between 1921 and 1980, using both class- and occupation-specific data. It employs a summary measure of inequality that uses all of the available data and can be evaluated in terms of its sensitivity to errors using accepted diagnostic techniques. Occupations that played a significant role in determining the time trend in inequality are identified and the effect of mortality among out-of-wedlock births is examined. Implications of these findings for assessing the determinants of social inequality in infant mortality and evaluating the contribution of the National Health Service in its amelioration are discussed.     

Understanding Diversity in the Meaning of Cohabitation Across Europe

This study investigates the diversity in the meanings attached to cohabitation across Europe. Utilizing a sample of 9,113 cohabiters between ages 18 and 79 from 10 European countries that participated in the Generations and Gender Surveys, we develop a typology of different meanings of cohabitation and study their prevalence across and within countries. Based on answers to questions about marriage intentions, marriage attitudes and feelings of economic deprivation, six types of cohabiters are distinguished. Cohabiters in some of these types mainly view cohabitation as a stage in the marriage process (i.e. a prelude to marriage, a trial marriage, cohabitation for economic reasons, intend to marry, despite an unfavourable attitude towards the institution of marriage), whereas other cohabiters mainly view it as an alternative to marriage (i.e. refusal of marriage, marriage is irrelevant). Results suggest that cohabiters constitute a heterogeneous group. For many, marriage is important and cohabitation serves as a period preceding marriage. Cohabitation as an alternative to marriage is more prevalent in Western and Northern Europe, where cohabitation rates are high. The group of cohabiters who intend to marry despite an unfavourable attitude towards the institution of marriage is particularly large in Central and Eastern European countries, where cohabitation is less widespread.     

Male mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland: Relation to region of birth and region of residence

The purpose of the study is to shed light on the causes of the large difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) between East and West Finland. The study is based on the death certificate records on deaths from IHD in 1971–1975 among Finnish men aged 35–64. These records were linked with the records on persons in the 1970 census. Mortality from IHD is analyzed simultaneously by region of birth and region of residence, controlling for several socio-economic and demographic variables, by means of log-linear models. The analysis shows that being born in East Finland and living there both increase the risk of IHD, but that being born in East Finland is a more important risk factor than is living there.     

Ageing and social-security costs

Past experience and current arrangements regarding social programmes suggest that an ageing population will have a substantial impact on outlays on social-security schemes and hence on their financial situation. In this paper we take the view that the strong emphasis given in recent years to the demographic component in pension and health outlays is justified but at the same time exaggerated. The paper first shows that the demographic impact on past growth in expenditures in the OECD was small and that it was everywhere far outstripped by other factors. Moreover, linking projections of demographic trends up to 2050 with three scenarios for growth rates in real benefits and real earnings, shows that the effects of future ageing can be substantially eased (or exacerbated) by other factors that are, in principle, accessible to policy control. Consideration of several possible strategies suggests that a combination of several is necessary to ease the burden.     

Why are Women Better Decoders of Nonverbal Language?

Women have consistently been found to be better decoders of nonverbal language compared to men. It is unknown however, whether this sex difference is biological or non-biological in nature. The current study sought to test for the first time the effect emotional intelligence (EI), trait dominance, and psychological gender had on nonverbal decoding accuracy. 86 undergraduate university students (43 males and 43 female), mean age 20.86 years old, completed the mini-Profile of Nonverbal Sensitivity, the Mayer–Salovey–Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, the Dominance Subscale of The Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire, and the Bem Sex-Role Inventory. Overall women were found to score 4.35 points significantly higher than men in nonverbal ability, 95 % CI [?2.31, 2.31], and 7.15 points significantly higher than men in EI, 95 % CI [?5.97, 5.97]. Higher EI scores were also found to predict significantly greater nonverbal decoding accuracy. These findings suggest that EI rather than biological sex appears to be the salient factor in an individual’s nonverbal decoding accuracy. Trait dominance, and participants’ masculinity and femininity scores however, were not found to be significantly correlated with nonverbal decoding ability, thus the non-biological model of EI, trait dominance, and psychological gender did not account for significantly more unique variance in decoding accuracy, compared to the biological model when biological sex alone was considered.     

A Novel Time Series Approach to Bridge Coding Changes with a Consistent Solution Across Causes of Death

Revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) can lead to biases in cause-specific mortality levels and trends. We propose a novel time series approach to bridge ICD coding changes which provides a consistent solution across causes of death. Using a state space model with interventions, we performed time series analysis to cause-proportional mortality for ICD9 and ICD10 in the Netherlands (1979–2010), Canada (1979–2007) and Italy (1990–2007) on chapter level. A constraint was used to keep the sum of cause-specific interventions zero. Comparability ratios (CRs) were estimated and compared to existing bridge coding CRs for Italy and Canada. A significant ICD9 to ICD10 transition occurred among 13 cause of death groups in Italy, 7 in Canada and 3 in the Netherlands. Without the constraint, all-cause mortality after the classification change would be overestimated by 0.4 % (NL), 0.03 % (Canada) and 0.2 % (Italy). The time series CRs were in the same direction as the bridge coding CRs but deviated more from 1. A smooth corrected trend over the ICD-transition resulted from applying the time series approach. Comparing the time series CRs for Italy (2003), Canada (1999) and the Netherlands (1995) revealed interesting commonalities and differences. We demonstrated the importance of adding the constraint, the validity of our methodology and its advantages above earlier methods. Applying the method to more specific causes of death and integrating medical content to a larger extent is advocated.     

《红楼梦》中的“通灵宝玉”

"通灵宝玉"是贾宝玉生而衔来的一枚宝物,贯穿<红楼梦>的始终.它不只是一枚护身符,还是封建宗教、政治与道德的物化形态,也是贵族婚姻制度的代言,更是贵族自我危机中身份重建的寄托.看似没有生命的"通灵宝玉",却在贾宝玉的成长过程中,与其独特个性形成一种强烈的对立.表面体现的是以贾母、贾政为代表的封建家长与以贾宝玉为代表的贵放新青年之间的对立;实际体现的是没落封建贵族内部两种不同人生观价值观的对立;实质体现的则是没落封建礼教与新兴文化之间的对立.     

Delayed childbearing in contemporary Spain: trends and differentials

During the last decade, family formation patterns in Spain have undergone a process of substantial transformation. Younger cohorts are increasingly postponing marriage and, once they enter marriage, they tend to delay childbearing. Partly as a result of these timing shifts, period measures such as total fertility rates are likely to underestimate true fertility levels. This study focuses on the first stage of family formation: the transition to motherhood. Following a birth interval approach, the analysis depicts recent trends and differentials in the timing of first birth and explores the role of premarital pregnancies and contraceptive practice on first interval dynamics.Durant la dernière décennie en Espagne, les types de constitution de la famille ont connu de substantielles transformations. Les plus jeunes cohortes prolongent leur célibat et, une fois mariées, tendent à retarder leurs naissances. En partie comme un effet de ces changements temporels, les mesures transversales, telles que la fécondité cumulée, sous-estiment vraisemblablement les vrais niveaux de la fécondité. Cette étude concentre son attention sur la prémière étape de la formation des familles: la transition vers la maternité. En utilisant une approche longitudinale, on analyse les tendances et les différences dans le calendrier de la première naissance et l'on explore le rôle des grossesses prémaritales et des pratiques contraceptives sur la dynamique de l'intervalle entre mariage et première naissance.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations.     

亲属立法的人性基础

人性本身无所谓善恶,其涵盖“人的动物性”和“人的社会性”.前者涵盖性冲动和生存欲两种自然欲求,后者涵盖性结合方式和群体性生活方式两种社会要求.亲属立法并不直接以人性为基础,从人性界分到亲属立法,中间需要有婚姻家庭伦理的介入.婚姻家庭伦理是对“人的动物性”和“人的社会性”进行道德评价的结果.婚姻伦理通过性禁忌、贞操观念分别对性冲动、性结合方式进行规制,家庭伦理通过不伤害原则、“同居共财”伦理/物权平等伦理分别对生存欲、群体性生活方式进行规制,而立法对婚姻家庭伦理的吸纳采歉抑路径.人性善恶假设是影响中西方亲属立法价值取向的关键原因.中国立法应以个体主义为基础,兼顾家庭本位的整体主义.     

中国电力消费周期的路径演化识别——基于Markov区制转移模型

基于1980-2016年中国第一产业、第二产业（工业、建筑业）和第三产业的年度电力消费数据,采用H-P滤波技术对中国电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分轨迹进行刻画,运用马尔科夫区制转移[MS（n）-AR（p）]模型分析中国电力消费周期在各区制间的动态转移过程,识别改革开放以来中国电力消费周期的路径演化特征,在此基础上预测未来5年中国电力消费周期的区制分布情况。研究发现:（1）中国电力消费增长率的波动程度自2003年明显缩窄,且从2007年开始进入下行周期。（2）中国电力消费周期具有较强的稳定性,不易向着其收缩期和扩张期跨越。且中国电力消费处于"低速增长区制"的年份往往对应着中国经济发展相对趋缓的大环境。（3）2014-2015年中国电力消费向其收缩期转移的迹象明显,但预测结果表明,未来5年中国电力消费整体上将继续保持稳定增长的趋势。     

行为逻辑与资源缺乏——对阿Ｑ行为的经济及社会分析

由于物质资源、社会关系资源和自身人力资源的缺乏 ,阿Q只能以打短工维持生存 ,但他具有认真工作的经济理性 ;在婚姻市场上他缺少交换价值 ,因而只能独身生活 ;对于缺乏社会关系资源和教育水准的焦虑 ,使得他试图用精神胜利的虚幻效用以求自我安慰 ;偷盗与革命是阿Q实现效用最大化的可能途径。阿Q的行为大都是理性的 ,是一种成本利益比较后的理性选择。阿Q的行为逻辑就是普通人的行为逻辑 ,因而具有典型和永恒的意义 ,他的悲剧是人的生命悲剧性的具体体现。     

环境规制约束下的雾霾脱钩效应——基于重污染产业转移视角的解释

分析环境规制约束下重污染产业转移对中国实现工业发展与雾霾污染脱钩的影响效应;探究环境规制约束下重污染产业转移对本地工业发展与雾霾污染脱钩的影响;根据重污染产业向外迁移的特点,提出"寻找污染天堂"式转移和空间邻近式转移两种模式,并分别验证重污染产业以上述两种模式进行转移时,对周边地区工业发展与雾霾污染脱钩的空间效应。结果表明:（1）重污染产业向外迁移显著促进了本地区工业发展与雾霾污染脱钩,且环境规制强度提高有助于增强重污染产业向外迁移的雾霾脱钩效应;（2）高环境规制地区重污染产业外迁对低环境规制地区雾霾脱钩影响不显著,但如果两地区环境规制强度差距拉大将导致高环境规制强度地区重污染产业外迁对低环境规制地区雾霾脱钩强度的负面影响;（3）重污染产业遵循空间邻近转移模式,由于雾霾污染具有强空间扩散性,导致周边地区重污染产业集聚或外迁均对本地区雾霾污染脱钩产生影响,但如果本地区提高环境规制强度,则会敦促周边地区重污染产业外迁至更远地区,降低周边地区重污染产业向外迁移对本地区雾霾脱钩强度的负面影响。     

Age and sex differentials in mortality during two nineteenth century population crises

The exceptionally detailed Finnish materials are used to examine age- and sex-specific mortality in different regions during the country's last famine, the Great Famine of the 1860s. This is compared with another mortality crisis, the 1808–09 War. The results show that in cases when multiple infectious diseases were responsible for elevated mortality, the increases for different age categories were, by and large, proportional to the levels prevailing during normal times. However, excess mortality showed more variability for children. Furthermore, age- and sex-specific social behaviour (specifically large-scale temporary migration) during the crisis period shaped the age patterns and sex differentials in mortality.     

Second Unions Now More Stable than First? A Comparison of Separation Risks by Union Order in France

The frequency of union dissolutions increased sharply over the past 40 years in Western Europe and North America, resulting in a rapid growth in the number of persons living with a second partner. In studies of the 1980s, primarily conducted within the context of marriage, second partnerships were generally found to be less stable than first unions, but more recent studies provide more conflicting evidence. Taking the example of France, we study whether the relationship between first and second union stability indeed reversed between the 1970s and the 2000s, and how union and individual characteristics contributed to changes over time. The analysis presented here is based on the French Generations and Gender Survey (2005). The article first provides an overview of the differences in marriage, childbearing and breakup behaviours in first and second unions. Second, a piecewise linear model for repeated events is used to compare women’s dissolution risks in first and second unions. The results show that over time, the higher instability of second compared to first unions disappeared. Further, women in second unions adopted unmarried cohabitation as a living arrangement more often across the whole period and were more likely to have stepchildren, which was associated with less stable unions. Taking into account this diversity of family situations, i.e. controlling for family form and children, second unions were more stable than first unions, even during the past. At both union orders, marriage breakup risks tended to stabilise despite a continuing increase in the prevalence of separation, which suggests that cohabitation increasingly acts as a filter for marriage.     

基于人口学特征的高校教师职业倦怠元分析

研究采用元分析方法，旨在探讨影响高校教师职业倦怠的人口学因素，为提高高校教师的心理健康水平提供依据。结果显示：（1）高校教师呈中度职业倦怠且职业倦怠的发生率偏高；（2）人口学特征中的性别和婚姻因素对高校教师职业倦怠有一定影响，但影响不大；（3）职称因素对高校教师职业倦怠的调节效应显著；（4）年龄因素对高校教师职业倦怠的影响呈现随年龄的增长而减少的趋势；（5）高校教师职业倦怠其他研究特征因素的调节效应不显著。基于此，提出以下建议：（1）减轻高校教师工作负荷，关注高校教师身心健康；（2）营造良好的社会支持氛围；（3）关心高校教师的家庭生活；（4）公平地给予高校教师进修机会；（5）平衡"教学"与"科研"的业绩比重，制定科学合理的职称晋级评定标准。     

央企高管政治晋升预期与环境信息披露质量——基于重污染行业的实证研究

选取重污染行业央企上市公司为研究对象,通过手工整理其高管个人特征数据,实证检验高管政治晋升预期与环境信息披露质量的关系。研究发现:重污染行业央企董事长政治晋升预期与环境信息披露质量显著负相关,支持政治晋升预期“消极效应”假说,但总经理政治晋升预期对环境信息披露质量影响不显著,说明“一把手”现象在央企较为突出。而且,地方政府环境监管力度越强,重污染行业央企董事长政治晋升预期与环境信息披露质量的负相关性越显著,表明董事长在面临政治晋升机会时存在“风险规避”倾向;公司上市年限越长,董事长政治晋升预期对环境信息披露的负向影响越低,表明声誉“软约束”能发挥积极作用。     

甘肃农民增收研究

农业结构调整,农业自身发展,农村面貌改善,生态环境建设,社会事业发展,农民外出务工和国家财税政策调整等都是影响农民增收的因素。甘肃省农民增收具有复杂性、艰巨性和长期性。应将促进农民增收作为甘肃省的总体思路和发展目标之一,与工业强省地位并列。甘肃省农民增加收入要发展特色农业,发展劳务经济,推进农业产业化,提高农民素质,有序推进农村土地制度改革,扎实推进新农村建设。     

政治哲学与形而上学——略论政治思想中的德国传统

本文通过对以约翰·洛克为代表的英国政治哲学和以康德、费希特、黑格尔为代表的德国政治哲学在论述政府权力的来源,人民反抗暴政的权利,立法、行政、司法三权的分立和制衡,私有财产权的起源与合法性,战争、妇女和婚姻等问题上的不同主张的对比,认为以形而上学思辨为特征和长处的德国传统实际上并不先进,且缺陷严重.