Natural Change in the Environment: A Challenge to the Pressure-State-Response Concept

The pressure-state-response framework is a powerful approach to environmental assessment. In many of its current expressions, however, it ignores the background natural processes that play a major role in determining environmental and ecosystem health. Clearly, policies must be focused on human actions that scar the landscape and harm the environment, but coping with environmental change also requires an assessment of the natural processes that take place whether or not human influences are at work. A newly-developed class of environmental indicators (geoindicators), presented here in brief, may be helpful in understanding the interaction of human and natural processes and impacts. Explicit recognition of the need to include natural conditions in the indicator system is essential in the transition from environmental reporting to sustainability reporting.     

Population goals and ecological strategies for spaceship earth

The last century has seen extraordinary growth in human populations and economies. This growth has imposed huge and ever-increasing pressures on Earth’s ecosystems, prompting fears concerning the integrity of their life-supporting functions and the high rate of extinction of species. Quite simply, ecological degradation threatens the interests and possibly the survival of future human populations. By the criterion of ecological sustainability, and given our current consumption rates and technologies, Earth is now overpopulated. In such times of great and threatening change it is important to reconsider human goals and enabling strategies. A fundamental goal is the sustained quality survival of human populations. Achieving this requires new paradigms of understanding and management, especially the realization that the human economic and social spheres are dependent on healthy, functioning ecosystems, and that most forms of growth are unsustainable. Socio-economic development must become ecologically sustainable with the maintenance of Earth’s life-support systems assuming priority. Developing integrated ecosystem management, cutting consumption, and negotiating optimum population sizes would be useful. This paper discusses these issues with emphasis on the Australian situation.     

论可持续发展原则与区域开发

可持续发展已经成为当代社会经济发展的基本原则,它对区域开发提出了新的要求,即人类的区域开发活动必须遵循与自然生态系统相协调的原则,区域开发应该具有全局性、科学性、前瞻性、系统性和稳定性。为了在区域开发中贯彻可持续发展原则,就要树立新的环境资源价值观,扩大对资源范围的认识,建立合理的资源配置机制,保证资源开发的可持续性,才能实现区域经济与生态环境的协调发展。     

Population and land use change in the California Mojave: Natural habitat implications of alternative futures

Demographic and land use dynamics have important implications for the natural environment within both developed and developing nations. Within the context of developed nations, popular and policy debates surrounding contemporary patterns of suburbanization attest to the salience of demographic and development issues. We examine the implications of land-use patterns as related to population and development within the context of the California Mojave Desert ecosystem. In a general sense, we aim to better understand the land requirements inferred by varying levels of population growth and density, as well as the natural habitat implications of those requirements. We develop a GIS including remotely sensed imagery, and demographic, economic, and biophysical data to examine of the implications of various demographic scenarios on species diversity. Spatial and statistical models are designed to develop possible alternative land use `futures'. Within the context of the California Mojave region, our results suggest that high-density development could reduce conflict with regions providing potential habitat for threatened or endangered species by over 80 percent. The process of model development demonstrates a potentially useful tool for policymakers, allowing for estimation and visualization of the land use implications of policy decisions.     

The Sustainability of Population Health

The study of population health encompasses analysis of the fundamental influences on human health, the consequences of such influences for societies and individuals, and the ways in which people and institutions respond to these consequences. A theme lacking from the present discourse is that of the sustainability of population health. To be sustainable, societies must respect the boundaries of natural systems and scorn disparities in standards of living. Preliminary analysis of data from 152 countries reveals an inverse relation between measures of population health and sustainability, although there are examples of societies where this inverse relation does not hold. Future research in population health should begin to question the sustainability of improving the health of some populations at the expense of others, and investigate how some societies appear to be able to achieve population health without compromising the health of the biosphere.     

Excessive Individualism Today Threatens Liberty Tomorrow: Sustainable Use of the Planet

In no period of human history has the exercise of perceived individual rights been so extreme, especially in developed countries such as the United States. These perceived rights might have been tolerable in a frontier society (although it is questionable whether the exercise of perceived individual rights to overhunt was tolerated) with vast per capita resources and space, but not on a planet where resources are being fully (or over) utilized, billions are malnourished, and the range from the poorest to the most affluent in material and energy terms is the greatest in human history. Sustainable use of the planet requires some curtailment of individual rights as they are now perceived, not only for the well-being of future generations but for more equitability and fairness at present. In short, sustainability requires a new ethos (a set of guiding beliefs) substantively different from the current practices: (1) an intergenerational equity and fairness in the use of the planet's ecological life support system, (2) an intolerance of the possible high risk associated with human practices that may result from seriously altering the ecological life support system when the consequences of doing so are highly uncertain, and (3) a compassion and esteem for other species and other humans who are now living or yet to live—this should result from tempering often aggressive insistence on individual rights.     

How Many Times Has the Human Population Doubled? Comparisons with Cancer

Along with decreasing doubling times as a function of increasing rates of population growth over the past several thousand years, the human species has shown striking parallels with a malignant growth. Some cancers also display decreasing doubling times of cell proliferation during the most rapidly growing phase. At 6 billion, the number of doublings reached by the human population as of 1998 is 32.5, with the 33rd doubling (8.59 billion) expected early in the next century. In terms of total animal biomass, including that of domestic animals under human control, the 33rd doubling of human-related biomass has been passed. In terms of energy use, which is a more accurate, index of the global ecological impact of humans, the human species has passed its 36th doubling. These calculations are important because, in addition to the number of doublings, the human population is showing several important similarities with a malignant organismic tumor, which results in death of the host organism at between 37 and 40 doublings. At current growth rates, the number of individual humans will reach those levels within 200–400 years from the present, but the ecological impact will be felt much sooner since the number of doublings of energy consumed will pass 37 early in the next century. These observations support the hypothesis that the human species has become a malignant process on the planet that is likely to result in the equivalent, for humans, of ecosystem death, or at least in a radical transformation of the ecosystem, the early phases of which are being observed.     

基于主成分分析的新疆兵团人口可持续发展研究

区域人口的可持续发展是区域社会经济发展的根本保证,人口的规模、素质和结构都直接关系着社会的存在和发展。文章选取兵团人口规模、职业构成、素质以及生活条件等指标构建了兵团人口的可持续发展指标体系,运用主成分分析法对兵团人口的发展现状及可持续性进行了分析,分析结果是兵团人口的综合发展指数呈下降趋势,发展具有不可持续性。对如何提高兵团人口发展的可持续性提出了具体的建议。     

TOWARD A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY

Through the past half-century, much effort in a variety of disciplines, has been put to developing an approach to assessing change that pushes beyond an emphasis on economic signals to include a more complete treatment of human and ecosystem wellbeing. This challenge lies at the very heart of reporting on progress toward sustainability. Key to addressing this challenge is developing an effective conceptualization of the human-ecosystem relationship. The results of a review of 29 conceptual models that address the human-ecosystem relationship are presented. These results are used to develop a conceptual approach to assessing progress toward sustainability that: (1) builds on a number of common features drawn from these models; (2) is founded on a value set that insists on parallel care and respect for people and the ecosystem together; and (3) is consistent with systems ideas.     

Implementing the Principles of Ecosystem Management Through Local Land Use Planning

While ecosystem approaches to management focus on broad spatial scales, decision makers increasingly recognize that implementation must occur at the local level with local land use decisions. This article examines the ability of local comprehensive plans in Florida to incorporate the principles of ecosystem management. It seeks to understand how comprehensive plans can effectively contribute to the management of ecological systems by systematically evaluating local plans against a conceptual model of what makes for a high quality ecosystem plan. Results measure the relative strengths and weaknesses of local plans to achieve the objectives of ecosystem management and provide direction on how communities can improve their environmental frameworks.     

Population,Development and Global Warming: Averting the Tragedy of the Climate Commons

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change.     

Nachhaltige Alltagsmobilit?t �� soziale Ungleichheiten und Milieus

Modern societies aremobile societies in a threefold aspect: socialmobility, international migrations and physical mobility (traffic). The article concentrates on the third, within sociological discourses more or less neglected aspect of mobility as physical mobility. From the perspective of sustainability and environment protection the production of greenhouse gases by individual motor car traffic is mostly debated resulting in reflections about alternative drive systems. In these debates social aspects of sustainable mobility are more or less neglected, partly as traditional mobility (system) research does not attach great importance to reflexive leeway. Based on recent studies the authors pick out two social aspects: unequal access to mobility systems as hardly any discussed aspect of social inequalities and the socio-cultural diversification alongside social milieus and lifestyles, which both are expressions and catalysts of (non-)sustainable forms of mobility.     

COMBINING SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS TO MEASURE SUSTAINABLE HUMAN WELL-BEING

In this paper an attempt is made to illustrate some ways in which social, economic and environmental indicators can be combined to tell a coherent story about the sustainability of human well-being. Using examples from the fields of health, the fishing industry and energy, it is argued that one's success at constructing a single comprehensive system of indicators of human well-being will always be limited by one's particular point of departure from social, economic or environmental indicators. If that is indeed the case, then it would be helpful for researchers to abandon attempts to construct single comprehensive utopian systems in favour of agreed upon lists of important goals, indicators and monitoring procedures that can be used to implement progressive social change.     

超大城市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展水平研究——基于Laplace混合政策模拟

人口增长与集聚为超大城市的发展提供动力,也给其自然资源系统带来极大扰动,使之呈现脆弱性特征;为实现超大城市人口—自然资源可持续发展,近年来政府实施了大量调控政策,但因对城市人口—自然资源系统的复杂互动难以精确量化,导致超大城市人口与自然资源关系治理困难重重。基于此,以北京市为例构建人口—自然资源系统可持续性评价框架,从政策干预视角,分析不同类型调控政策(如人口调控、技术改进、资源管制等)与人口、自然资源的因果关系,并利用Laplace准则结合决策者风险喜好,模拟混合政策干预对人口—自然资源系统可持续性带来的影响。结果显示:政策干预是保证北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展的重要手段,其中,人口调控政策是北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续性变动的主要影响因素,资源管制和技术改进是次要影响因素;随着政策干预强度的增加,由于人口系统安全性和自然资源系统脆弱性的互动博弈,北京市人口—自然资源可持续性逐渐趋于稳定;在Laplace情景下,人口安全性减弱了1.82%,损失不大;而自然资源脆弱性减弱了12.13%,收益较高;最终使得人口—自然资源系统可持续性增强了6.23%。因此,对于超大城市的政策干预需...     

良好的人口环境是中国实现可持续发展的重要保证

可待续发展是关系人类发展的重大问题,它涉及许多方面,但人作为社会发展最可宝贵的动力资源,无疑是可持续发展的中心要素。人口数量、质量和结构等即人口环境直接影响可持续发展其他要素及整体的实现。结合当前中国人口现状,作者认为,中国要实现可持续发展,必须创建良好的人口环境,控制人口数量、提高人口质量。     

环境与健康

环境的污染和退化必然会影响人类的健康 ,由环境污染造成的食品污染和人为造成的食品污染以及水污染严重损害人体健康。为了增进健康 ,必须保护环境 ,建立可持续生活模式。     

The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

This paper describes the methodology and main results from an overall assessment on future achievement of sustainable development goals. The proposed approach consists of a model-based, looking forward composite sustainable development index—FEEM sustainability index—projected to the future. It represents a first experiment to reproduce the future dynamics of sustainable development indicators over time and worldwide and to assess future sustainability under different scenarios. The assessment presented here is relevant under different viewpoints. First, it has a very broad nature in terms of both geographical coverage and meaningfulness: it considers the multi-dimensional structure of sustainable development by combining relevant indicators belonging to economic, social and environmental pillars for the whole world. Second, the modelling framework to compute future trends of indicators relies upon a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This is an ideal tool to look simultaneously at the development of many indicators, their potential interactions and trade-offs, and more in general to the consequences of economic development and/or policies aiming to increase performance in one or more indicators; it allows measuring the overall sustainability under alternative scenarios, across countries and over time. Finally, regarding the construction of the composite indicator, the application of fuzzy measures and Choquet integral increases substantially the model capability allowing taking into account the interactions that exist among the three main pillars of sustainability and the considered indicators.     

Choreographing the city: Can dance practice inform the engineering of sustainable urban environments?

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we aim to demonstrate that choreographic practice has the potential to offer new insights into the engineering of sustainable urban infrastructure and environments. Identifying urban mobility as an ideal starting point to discuss the potential overlaps between engineering and choreographic thinking, we briefly outline the notion of sustainability as it pertains to a key area of city engineering – urban transport. Arguing that transport is one of the most critical issues in creating socially and environmentally sustainable urbanism, we draw on studies of engineering to show how its working cultures and epistemologies prevent it from undergoing the transformation that would allow it to effectively address the issues posed by sustainable transport. The focus of the paper is what we believe to be a comprehensive survey of the few conceptual and practical experiments that have been undertaken in using choreographic techniques to explain or design the way people move in cities, in scholarship and design practice. We conclude by arguing that there is great potential to expand on these experiments as ways to address the cultural and epistemological limits within engineering, and calling for practice-based research that shows what impact this would have on its processes and outcomes.     

Equity,efficiency, and identity: Grounding the debate over population and sustainability

If social scientists are to provide a more useful contribution to international debates over population and environment, we must find ways to combine the insights of our competing theoretical traditions. Political economy, rational choice, and cultural institutionalist perspectives are each associated with a different assessment and characterization of the population problem, as well as divergent strategies of response, prioritizing in turn the goals of equity, efficiency, and cultural identity. The principal argument of this paper is that these three perspectives, and the goals which they embody, are like the three legs of a stool; none is sufficient and each is necessary to uphold socially acceptable responses to population growth in the context of broader challenges of sustainability. Each perspective is reviewed in turn, distinguishing narrow and polarizing applications that trivialize the way social and economic systems rely on the natural environment from applications that are useful in fashioning a more integrated approach. The paper concludes with reflections on how this approach may support and enrich a focus on sustainable livelihoods in development planning.     

Limits to population size: Three scenarios of energy interaction between human society and ecosystem

A simple theoretical model describing the interaction between humans and their environment in terms of energy flows is proposed to check the compatibility between the density of energy throughput in human society and the density of energy throughput in the ecosystem. This model is then applied to analyze three different scenarios of energy interaction between human society and the ecosystem: (i) societal activity is supported exclusively by biophysical processes for energy input and conversion; (ii) society is fueled by biofuels (biogas and alcohol) but power is generated by exosomatic technological devices (engines, etc.); (iii) society has ample access to a high-density energy input and exosomatic technological devices. For each scenario limits to human development are discussed, and estimates of a sustainable population size provided on the basis of compatibility between energy throughput in society and the environment.