Statistics development: statistical methods meeting the user’s needs

Statistical methods have the potential of being effectively used by industrial practitioners if they satisfied two criteria: functionality and usability. Statistical methods are usually the product of statistical research activities of universities and other research organizations. Some already satisfy these criteria; however, many do not. The effect is that potentially relevant methods are not used in practice as often as they could be. In this paper we will present an approach regarding ‘statistics development,’ in which the end-user is given a central position, so that the results from statistical research aim to meet the needs and requirements of the practitioner. Examples of known and new methods will be presented, and we will discuss issues such as education in statistics, the link with statistical consultancy and publication of methods through various channels.     

得失与启示：我国统计学博士学位论文选题统计分析

 统计学博士是统计科研的中坚力量之一,其博士论文在一定程度上反映了当时我国统计学科研的热点和前沿,代表着我国统计教育的先进水平。本文通过对1987-2009年509篇统计学博士学位论文的选题及其研究内容进行统计,分析其变动规律和特点,总结选题的得失与启示,为今后科学选题以及进一步深入开展统计学术研究提供参考依据。     

宏观统计数据质量评估的研究范畴与基本范式

 内容提要：不断推进宏观统计数据质量评估研究的体系化和规范化,是该领域学术价值存续和有效信息揭示的必由出路。本文旨在解决其中的两方面关键问题：一是界定宏观统计数据质量评估的研究范畴,藉此明晰数据质量评估研究的概念结构、方法原理、理论基础和功能边界;二是探讨对各种宏观统计数据质量评估方法的适用性进行检验的可行方法,以确保评估研究可以给出较为可靠的结论。进而明确宏观统计数据质量评估研究的基本范式,探讨研究中应遵循的一系列操作规则。     

属性数据的多变量对应分析模型及应用

属性数据的建模和分析是市场研究活动中最重要的一类应用问题,学术界和市场研究行业一般使用列联表及统计检验的方法进行分析。故将法国统计学家J.P.Beozecri提出的对应分析法导入市场研究实证过程,使问卷调查中常见的多变量属性数据分析建模过程呈现出稳健的统计结论和直观的二维图示,并推广到广义多变量对应分析场合,其结论可靠,有应用创新。     

The use of semantic knowledge to enhance statistical software

The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Up to now the majority of the research into developing knowledge-based statistical software has concentrated on moving away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed expert systems approaches. This paper proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented; the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package.     

Adjusting overall survival for treatment switches: commonly used methods and practical application

In parallel group trials, long‐term efficacy endpoints may be affected if some patients switch or cross over to the alternative treatment arm prior to the event. In oncology trials, switch to the experimental treatment can occur in the control arm following disease progression and potentially impact overall survival. It may be a clinically relevant question to estimate the efficacy that would have been observed if no patients had switched, for example, to estimate ‘real‐life’ clinical effectiveness for a health technology assessment. Several commonly used statistical methods are available that try to adjust time‐to‐event data to account for treatment switching, ranging from naive exclusion and censoring approaches to more complex inverse probability of censoring weighting and rank‐preserving structural failure time models. These are described, along with their key assumptions, strengths, and limitations. Best practice guidance is provided for both trial design and analysis when switching is anticipated. Available statistical software is summarized, and examples are provided of the application of these methods in health technology assessments of oncology trials. Key considerations include having a clearly articulated rationale and research question and a well‐designed trial with sufficient good quality data collection to enable robust statistical analysis. No analysis method is universally suitable in all situations, and each makes strong untestable assumptions. There is a need for further research into new or improved techniques. This information should aid statisticians and their colleagues to improve the design and analysis of clinical trials where treatment switch is anticipated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data-transformation approach to lifetimes data analysis: An overview

This article consists of a review and some remarks on the scope, common models, methods, their limitations and implications for the analysis of lifetime data. Also a new approach based upon data-transformations analogous to that of Box and Cox (1964) is introduced. The basic methods and theory of the subject are most familiarly and commonly encountered by the statistical community in the context of problems in reliability studies and survival analysis. However, they are also useful in areas of statistical applications such as goodness-of-fit and approximations for sampling distributions and are applicable in such diverse fields of applied research as economics, finance, sociology, meteorology and hydrology. The discussion includes examples from the mainstream statistical, social sciences and business literature.     

统计基层基础建设评价方法的研究

 统计基层基础建设和评价方法是提高统计数据质量、提高统计能力、提高统计公信力及推进“企业一套表”实施的基础和保障。本文针对河北省统计基层基础建设和评价方法问题,首先,对统计基层基础的定义进行了阐述,分析了河北省在加强统计基层基础工作前存在的主要问题;在老虑不同地区形成的代表性差异,科学选择试点,进行深入研究的基础上,提出了县、乡两级统计基层基础建设和评价方法的具体思路和实施办法,重点对如何加强基层统计工作问题进行了研究,并通过初步实施、以点带面,促进了全省统计基层基础工作水平的全面提升,取得了显著的效果。     

端正发展方向 加强机构建设 提高科研质量 发展统计科研事业

一、两年来统计科研工作基本情况的回顾１９９６年“平谷会议”至今，我们经历了不同寻常的两年。在我们的政治生活中发生了几件重大事件。一是党的十五大的召开，标志着我们党决心领导全国各族人民，将继续沿着有中国特色社会主义道路，进一步解放思想，开拓进取，不断深...     

大数据背景下非概率抽样的统计推断问题

利用大数据进行抽样,很多情况下抽样框的构造比较困难,使得抽取的样本属于非概率样本,难以将传统的抽样推断理论应用到非概率样本中,如何解决非概率抽样的统计推断问题,是大数据背景下抽样调查面临的严重挑战。本文提出了解决非概率抽样统计推断问题的基本思路：一是抽样方法,可以考虑基于样本匹配的样本选择、链接跟踪抽样方法等,使得到的非概率样本近似于概率样本,从而可采用概率样本的统计推断理论;二是权数的构造与调整,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和倾向得分等方法得到类似于概率样本的基础权数;三是估计,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和贝叶斯的混合概率估计。最后,以基于样本匹配的样本选择为例探讨了具体解决方法。     

Frequent problems in calculating integrals and optimizing objective functions: a case study in density deconvolution

Many statistical procedures involve calculation of integrals or optimization (minimization or maximization) of some objective function. In practical implementation of these, the user often has to face specific problems such as seemingly numerical instability of the integral calculation, choices of grid points, appearance of several local minima or maxima, etc. In this paper we provide insights into these problems (why and when are they happening?), and give some guidelines of how to deal with them. Such problems are not new, neither are the ways to deal with them, but it is worthwhile to devote serious considerations to them. For a transparant and clear discussion of these issues, we focus on a particular statistical problem: nonparametric estimation of a density from a sample that contains measurement errors. The discussions and guidelines remain valid though in other contexts. In the density deconvolution setting, a kernel density estimator has been studied in detail in the literature. The estimator is consistent and fully data-driven procedures have been proposed. When implemented in practice however, the estimator can turn out to be very inaccurate if no adequate numerical procedures are used. We review the steps leading to the calculation of the estimator and in selecting parameters of the method, and discuss the various problems encountered in doing so.     

政府统计时间成本研究

现有的政府统计成本控制往往注重于业务费用的消耗上,而忽略时间的消耗（即时间成本）。本文从时间维度研究政府统计成本问题;给出了政府统计时间成本的定义;并将政府统计时间成本划分为事前时间成本、事中时间成本、事后时间成本（包括事后内部损失时间成本和事后外部损失时间成本）;具体分析了政府统计时间成本控制存在的问题;并提出了相应的控制策略。无疑,本项研究能指导实务界更好地认识与控制政府统计时间成本。     

On a multiple endpoints testing problem

In a clinical trial comparing drug with placebo, where there are multiple primary endpoints, we consider testing problems where an efficacious drug effect can be claimed only if statistical significance is demonstrated at the nominal level for all endpoints. Under the assumption that the data are multivariate normal, the multiple endpoint-testing problem is formulated. The usual testing procedure involves testing each endpoint separately at the same significance level using two-sample t-tests, and claiming drug efficacy only if each t-statistic is significant. In this paper we investigate properties of this procedure. We show that it is identical to both an intersection union test and the likelihood ratio test. A simple expression for the p-value is given. The level and power function are studied; it is shown that the test may be conservative and that it is biased. Computable bounds for the power function are established.     

Likelihood Maximization Using Web-Based Optimization Tools

This article proposes the use of optimization techniques and tools to maximize the likelihood if maximization cannot be easily accomplished with standard statistical software. In such situations, the use of the programming language AMPL with the freely available optimization solvers under the NEOS Server is an attractive alternative to algorithms developed for specific optimization problems in statistics. This article is meant to be a short tutorial introducing statisticians to these methods and tools. We provide an example to illustrate these methods. The necessary files for maximization are included in the Appendix so that the reader can carry out the optimization procedure described.     

Universal codes as a basis for time series testing

We suggest a new approach to hypothesis testing for ergodic and stationary processes. In contrast to standard methods, the suggested approach gives a possibility to make tests, based on any lossless data compression method even if the distribution law of the codeword lengths is not known. We apply this approach to the following four problems: goodness-of-fit testing (or identity testing), testing for independence, testing of serial independence and homogeneity testing and suggest nonparametric statistical tests for these problems. It is important to note that practically used so-called archivers can be used for suggested testing.     

治学报国:民国时期的统计留学生

民国时期统计留学生主要求学地分布在英美等国,其中既有专门研究数理统计方法的许宝騄等人,也有利用统计学方法研究生物学、经济学、教育学、社会学、心理学等问题的朱君毅、陈达、吴定良等人。这批统计留学生求学于当时的世界统计中心或顶尖大学,其中不乏令世界统计学界为之瞩目的杰出人才,以相对较小的规模取得了比肩国际一流水平的学术成就,为世界统计学发展贡献了中国智慧。他们的教育背景和学术水平,奠定了我国近代统计教育的较高起点和坚实基础,值得学术界深入挖掘和研究。其学术报国的家国情怀,至今仍是激励后辈学人的精神力量。