论东北地区外贸发展方式创新

外贸发展方式创新,是我国"十二五"时期经济发展方式转变的重大而关键的任务。长期以来,东北地区外贸发展主要依据传统的比较优势理论,以出口数量扩张、劳动密集型产品出口和低价格战略形成竞争优势。目前,面临后金融危机影响,全球经济增长乏力、大宗商品价格高企、资源环境压力加大、出口难度增加,更显露出其粗放性和难以持续性。东北地区外贸发展亟待打破原有传统贸易理论束缚,创新外贸发展方式,即从扩大出口创汇转向提高经济效益上来,从粗放式增长转向集约式增长上来,从出口创汇型转向依靠国际化经营能力上来。要遵循国际贸易规则,创新对外贸易制度安排;发挥东北地区优势,开拓多元化国际市场;优化出口产品结构,积极引导产业升级;加强与周边国家和地区的合作,促进外贸经济协调发展;集合各方力量,积极应对贸易摩擦。     

区域经济组织对全球贸易体制的挤出--基于中国视角的验证与对策

区域经济组织的兴起给多边贸易体制带来了一系列的挑战和冲击，其基本原因在于区域经济组织带来的积极影响以及多边贸易体制自身的消极因素，这些都为区域经济组织对多边贸易体制形成挤出效应埋下了隐患。这在现有所谓社会网络模型中得到充分验证。因此协调好二者之间的矛盾与冲突对于中国的贸易自由化和可持续发展就有着重大的意义。自从加入WTO以来，中国经济实力和贸易水平实现大幅度提升，中国有义务也有能力趋利避害，谋求消化区域经济组织对现有全球贸易体制的挤出效应，扭转两者零和博弈的内耗，进而追求自身与全球的经济贸易利益持续健康发展。     

The Value of the WTO

Recent developments in global trade include actions by major global traders that lie outside the norms of behaviour of the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the last 20 years. Member frustrations with the slow pace of negotiations and concerns about strategies and behaviours of other members approaches to trade and economic development have created unprecedented stresses on a system of rules and commitments that have long encouraged global trade growth and increased economic integration. In this paper we explore the value of the multilateral trading system, particularly the WTO, and emphasize that the value goes well beyond crucial achievements such as tariff reductions and the prevention of a global trade war, but is also found in increased certainty and transparency. The WTO reduces uncertainty about trade policy thus promoting trade and investment. Membership of the WTO locks in beneficial reform and has a public good nature also fostering trade with non-members. We discuss the importance of the WTO as a multilateral forum to negotiate rules on segments of trade expected to grow in the future such as services and digital trade. We describe how the history of negotiations in the WTO provides useful insights for negotiations on such future topics.     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

印度在南亚经济合作中的作用

印度的地区和自身经济发展政策深刻影响了南亚经济合作进程。近20年来,印度对南亚经济合作的重视逐渐超过对政治、安全问题的顾虑。在其积极推动下,南亚经济联系有所加强,地区经济合作机制不断完善。但经济融合的整体水平仍不尽如人意,表现出内聚力弱、外向性强的特点。总体而言,印度在地区贸易和投资合作中发挥的作用较为有限。究其原因,主要包括印度与南亚其他国家产业基础差距较大,贸易互补性不强;贸易成本较高;南亚其他国家对印度的投资吸引力较弱,以及地区政治、安全因素干扰等。     

The transitional impacts of material and service offshoring

The recent expansion of offshoring intermediate services has given rise to public fears and a possible pullback from a liberal trading system. Modeling and estimating intermediate offshoring is complicated since the shock is further down the production process. This paper incorporates the necessary transmission mechanisms into a data-intensive CGE model for the State of Colorado to estimate the current and future impacts of continuing a liberal trade policy for offshoring intermediates. The results indicate that while the overall effects of offshoring are small and positive, the future directions of service offshoring are projected to cause sizable domestic job destruction and displacement. Policies may have to be implemented to retrain domestic workers who face job loss or even consider curtailing future offshoring opportunities.     

Multilateralism under threat: Causes,impact, and the policy debate on government intervention in trade

Several forces fostered trade liberalization since the end of World War II. Production and trade interacted quite favorably during the period. In the past quarter century real income in the OECD economies grew at almost 4% yearly, while the volume of export increased by almost 7 percent. However, in the first half of the 1980s, the chemistry of the situation seems to have changed as protectionist tendencies developed almost everywhere in the world. The very same multilateral nature of the world trading system is under threat, as illiberal discriminatory practices are being implemented bilaterally and, even more often, unilaterally. What are the forces at play to increase the pressure towards government intervention in trade? The paper reviews (i) macroeconomic issues and policy situations, as well as (ii) structural issues concerning the working of the economic systems of industrial countries. The pressure for trade intervention in the U.S. is addressed separately with respect to Europe, given the structural and cyclical differences between the two economies The case of Japan is dealt with with reference to the alleged interrelation between Japan's international competitiveness and its macroeconomic policies. Matters of more direct concern to the LDCs are covered at the end of the paper, with emphasis placed on the restructuring process under way in response to, and as a consequence of, the external debt. The paper ends with a recommendation to all countries to make efforts to preserve and strengthen the multilateral and liberal foundations of the international trading system.     

日美对外贸易政策的取向及启示

日本和美国的对外贸易政策是随着国内外经济环境的变化而不断地进行调整和完善的。一方面,对外贸易政策在总体趋势上呈现自由化;另一方面,又根据各自经济贸易发展的实际大力推行管理贸易。中国在对外贸易政策的选择上,既要将贸易自由化作为对外贸易政策的基本取向,更要适应国际贸易发展趋势,加大实施管理贸易的力度。     

中国食品贸易竞争力及食品安全体系的变迁与展望

本文在回顾中国食品贸易竞争力与食品安全变迁的基础上,以提升中国食品贸易竞争力和食品工业的国际竞争力为目标,提出在全球食品安全背景下发展中国食品工业、增强中国食品安全、提升中国食品贸易竞争力、树立中国良好贸易形象的展望。     

中国与东盟的经贸关系:2006年回顾暨2007年展望

回顾2006年在中国和东盟双方政治互信进一步加强,战略伙伴关系深入发展背景下,双方经贸关系发展所取得的主要成果,对2007年可能影响双方经贸关系的若干因素作了分析和判断。在此基础上,对2007年双方经贸关系的走向作了展望,指出在东亚经济合作出现新机遇和世界及东亚地区经济继续保持快速增长情况下,中国和东盟经贸关系将快步向前发展。     

推动广西与越南经贸关系发展途径探析

中越两国关系正常化以来,特别是随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建成,中越两国间的经贸合作越来越紧密,经济、政治、文化交流与合作活动也越来越频繁。广西作为中国通往越南、通往东南亚各国的重要门户,有着其自身的发展优势。广西政府、企业如何把握机遇、发展对越经贸合作,实现优势互补,促进地区经济发展、构建社会主义和谐社会,是我们目前也是下一阶段的研究任务。     

Trade, education, and innovation: Prospects for the U.S. economy

This paper examines international trade issues as vital indicators of the economic prospects of the United States and other developed economies. In particular, it challenges misuses of the doctrine of mutual gains from trade and instead argues that comparative advantage does not guarantee increases in benefits to both trading partners—especially when one partner seeks to distort the market mechanism in its favor. In the face of such mercantilist or protectionist practices, efforts to advance innovation, without retaining manufacturing jobs, will not ensure continued prosperity, as the number of jobs entailed in the invention process is small compared with the number of jobs associated with manufacturing an innovative product for mass consumption. These matters call for the urgent rethinking of trade policy by the United States and other developed nations, if they are to balance their imports and exports and ensure continued economic growth.     

发展服务贸易的思考:问题及其路径选择

货物贸易与服务贸易一直存在着"长短腿"尴尬,如何抓住新一轮国际产业转移的战略机遇,促进服务贸易快速发展,实现货物贸易和服务贸易的协调发展,是我国参与国际分工、提高国际竞争力的重要举措。基于和谐视角,提出应从调整产业结构、政府政策扶持、加快服务贸易人才培养、拓展服务外包寻求服务贸易突破口、实施服务贸易品牌策略、完善政策法规等方面发展服务贸易的相关制度安排。     

中国转型期边境对外贸易发展对策研究

边境对外贸易作为国际贸易的一种形式,既具有国际贸易中商品及服务的跨国互换性,又具备比国际贸易更为严格的地缘性。它是毗邻国家间特有的一种对外经济交往形式,对促进一国经济发展和国际间往来均具有十分重要的作用,且这种作用并未随着信息时代"地球村"的出现而减小。恰恰相反,边境对外贸易正在与新的区域间交往和合作方式结合在一起,发挥着更大的作用。在对中国边境对外贸易发展历程和现状进行归纳和剖析基础上,针对中国经济转型期要求和新的国际形势,提出相应的政策建议,对促进中国边境对外贸易更好更快发展具有重大的现实意义。     

加工产业的国际转移与加工贸易活动中的若干选择

发达经济体是加工贸易活动的开创者和三次加工产业国际转移的推动者,经济与外贸发展战略决定了加工装配活动的成效,出口导向战略是开展加工装配活动的必要条件,出于经济与政治的考虑,发展中经济体都选择了通过参与加工贸易活动而融入到经济全球化浪潮中来。但是,参与加工贸易活动仍需要遵循比较优势原则,偏离这一原则的任何做法都不足取。     

TBT的贸易效应及我国的应对措施

国际贸易中的技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)倾向越来越强,制约了我国利用国际市场的深度和广度,使我国贸易条件趋向恶化,贸易得益减少。应采取提高国民技术经济意识,完善与国际接轨的技术标准体系,强化技术创新体系,提升产业结构等一系列宏观、微观措施来促进我国外贸的健康发展。     

Globalization: Country and company interests in conflict

Globalization has brought about fundamental change. But, the same theory that shows that free trade is beneficial also shows that globalization can be harmful to at least one of the trading countries. Moreover, with globalization, the interests of a country and its companies may diverge. In this paper, we examine free trade in a globalizing world and identify the key policy issues that economists and industrial leaders, alike, must address in today's interdependent world.     

广西与越南经贸合作研究

近年来中国及广西与越南不断深化全面合作,为推动中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设及泛北部湾合作和＂两廊一圈＂建设打下了坚实基础。随着越南和广西经贸合作的深入,广西应把重点转移到茶叶产业等八个领域上,建立广西—越南陆上跨国经济特区带,实现广西—越南双方全方位经贸合作。     

福建与东盟深化经贸合作对策建议

东盟历来是福建高度重视开发的传统市场,中国—东盟自由贸易区协议签订后,福建抓住机遇,积极推进双方在经贸领域的合作,东盟已成为福建重要的经贸合作伙伴。福建应采取进一步措施深化与东盟国家的经贸合作,争取在建设中国—东盟自由贸易区的进程中发挥作用。     

明清西安与周边地区道路交通建设及商路拓展

商路是联系市场的纽带与桥梁,商路走向改易会直接影响商业市场兴衰。明清西安与周边地区商路有一个逐渐发展完善的过程,这一过程也是近代西安交通道路格局形成的基础。明代陕西商路主要借助驿路交通,商业市场以此为依托,形成沿驿路走向分布的地域格局。人清以后,随着边事平静,军队撤走,经济发展受外在因素的干扰越来越少,商路与驿路逐渐分离。关中商路出现多元发展趋势;陕北商路则向北与向东发展;这一时期,陕西商业市场分布格局也出现明显改易,陕北表现得尤其明显,充分表现出商路与市场分布格局在空间上的互动关系。