Famine,revolt, and the dynastic cycle: population dynamics in historic China

Historians have long noticed that population declines in ancient China often coincided with dynasty changes, and that most of these declines were the result of internecine wars which, in turn, were often initiated by famine or density pressure. Since the interactions between density pressure, internecine wars, and dynasty changes cannot be explained by the traditional age-specific density-dependent population structure, we propose to use a bandit/peasant/ruler occupation-specific population model to interpret the dynamic socio-economic transitions of ancient Chinese population, and provide econometric support to our model. We also highlight the rich dynamics of the composition of human population, a factor which was often neglected in previous research on general populations.This research was partly funded by the Rockefeller Foundation population science grant to C. Y. Cyrus Chu. Comments and suggestions by an anonymous referee and seminar participants at Berkeley, Michigan, Stanford and National Taiwan University were helpful in the revision of earlier drafts. Generous programming help from Clint Cummins of TSP and Ruth Yu is gratefully acknowledged.     

Population dynamics and life-cycle consumption

This paper presents a model where aggregate consumption depends on both the level of wealth and the age structure of population. The explicit consideration of an endogenous rate of time preference permits to analyze the important role of population ageing as a determinant of aggregate saving. Received: 23 October 2001/Accepted: 13 February 2002 I would like to thank an anonymous referee for his comments. Financial support from CNR and MURST is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Population dynamics and monetary policy

This paper shows that in a general equilibrium model with interest-rate feedback rules of the Taylor-type population dynamics give rise to multiple steady states. Under an active monetary policy, real determinacy occurs only around the steady state with zero net financial wealth, where aggregate consumption is equally distributed among agents of different generations. By contrast, in a neighborhood of the steady state displaying a positive stock of financial wealth and intergenerational inequality, real determinacy requires monetary policy to be passive. Changes in the demographic profile of the economy are shown to have relevant implications for the aggregate accumulation of wealth.

Fertility trends,excess mortality,and the Great Irish Famine

This paper has developed estimates of the age-specific mortality rates prevailing during the Great Irish Famine and has analyzed fertility trends during the 25 years before the Famine. Our calculations confirm that 1 million Irish people perished as a result of this disaster. This figure does not include the deaths among the 1.3 million emigrants who left Ireland during the Famine period. The Famine produced a significant drop in the fertility rate, and we estimate that more than 300,000 births did not take place as a result of the Famine. The effects were especially severe on the very young and the very old, a result echoed in the findings of demographic analyses of other famines. Our procedure permits a reconstruction of the Irish population by age and sex during the period 1821-1841. In addition, it yields year-by-year estimates of the birth rate over this period. We estimate that the rate fell by about 14 percent, a result robust to our assumptions regarding emigration. Economic historians have debated this issue, and we hope that our evidence, although preliminary, will be of assistance. Our analysis also permits year-by-year reconstruction of Irish population totals for the period 1821-1851. Two years are of particular interest. Virtually all recent writers, with the notable exception of Lee (1981), have suggested that the 1831 census returns overestimated the actual population resident in Ireland at that date. Our reconstruction supports the validity of the 1831 census figure. We obtain a total of 7,847,000, which is in good agreement with the disputed census figure of 7,767,000. But perhaps the most interesting figure is the population total for the end of 1845, the highest ever achieved in Ireland. We estimate that the population on the eve of the Great Famine was 8,525,000. Throughout the paper we have tried to highlight those areas in which the data are unreliable, unavailable, or distorted. We have tried to devise cross-checks for consistency and to test the sensitivity of the results to a range of assumptions. A case in point concerns the age-sex profile and volume of emigration to England, Scotland, and Wales. Additional work at the micro level would be helpful here. More solid evidence on Famine births would also be helpful. The parish registers we have sampled certainly provide a clue to trends, but we have only made a start in that respect. A much more comprehensive survey is needed to convey the national picture.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Population,Reproductive Health and Poverty Alleviation in China

~~Population,Reproductive Health and Poverty Alleviation in China     

中国人口学会第七届会员代表大会暨第九次全国人口科学讨论会综述及学会领导机构名单

2007年12月28～29日,中国人口学会第七届会员代表大会暨第九次全国人口科学讨论会在北京中苑宾馆隆重开幕.参加会议的有第九届全国人大常委会副委员长、中国人口学会第六届会长彭佩云,国家人口计生委主任张维庆,国家人口计生委党组书记、副主任李斌,副主任王培安以及各地人口学会的代表.会议主要由三部分组成:开幕式,学术研讨会和换届选举.大会结束后,第七届学会常务理事会举行了第一次会议.     

世界人口格局中的中国人口转变及其特点

20世纪 50年代以后的中国人口转变与西方传统人口转变有许多不同之处 ,具有自身的特点 ,即转变的迅速性、控制干预性、不彻底性、不稳定性、不平衡性。把握新时期稳定低生育水平的决定是将我国人口转变进行到底的重要措施和手段 ,是实现人口可持续发展的重要步骤     

人口、资源、环境与中国可持续发展

中国人口规模过大,素质偏低,自然资源相对短缺,生态环境形势严峻,已不同程度影响了经济社会的可持续发展。为此,我们必须切实加强人口控制,节约珍惜一切资源,开发利用海洋资源和可再生性能源,坚持以防为主、防治结合原则,保护和改善生态环境,努力促进人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的可持续发展。     

Population dynamics of humans and other animals

Human population dynamics, at least until the past century, have probably been governed by homeostasis and in this resembled those of other animals. Because human population homeostasis was probably substantially weaker than among large mammals, its operation has been less obvious. Nonetheless, the empirical evidence for advanced agriculturalists is compelling. Unlike animals, the human population has tended toward equilibria that have been tending upward at an accelerating rate. The acceleration might reflect long-run positive feedback between density and technological progress, as Boserup has suggested. Because homeostasis was weak, its role in shorter run historical explantation is limited; its force was gentle and easily overwhelmed by other particular influences. Malthusian oscillation, in the sense of distinctive medium-run dynamics arising from homeostasis, probably did not occur. And because homeostasis was weak, density dependence can in principle explain only a minute proportion of the annual variation in population growth rates. Yet homeostasis plays an essential role in demographic theory. Without it, we are incapable of explaining population size and change over time except by recounting a mindless chronology of events back to the beginning of humanity--whenever that was. Without it, we cannot explain the response of population growth to economic growth. Without it, we cannot explain recovery from catastrophe or the rapid natural increase in many frontier regions. Without it, we cannot properly analyze the influence of climatic variation and other partially density-independent factors. Our basic understanding of human history requires a grasp of what homeostasis can explain and what it cannot. A homeostatic approach to population dynamics also leads to questions about the roles of reproductive norms and institutions, not just whether they encourage high or low fertility, but whether they make natural increase responsive to resource abundance. And if they do, whether they strike the balance of population and the means of subsistence at a relatively prosperous or impoverished level. Such considerations may contribute to an understanding of broad preindustrial differences among the regions of the world in densities, average levels of vital rates, and living standards--which was very much how Malthus viewed the matter. Ordinary homeostatic tendencies essentially vanish in the course of economic development, and they were probably all but gone from much of Europe by the end of the 19th century.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

中国的人口,安全吗?

背　景中国的人口 ,安全吗 ?这个问题会不会使你感到突兀 ,而不知何以作答 ?人口与安全之间有联系吗 ?有着怎样的联系 ?人口作为人类个体的集合 ,其安全与否指的是什么呢 ?是人口本身的安全 ,还是人口问题会威胁到其他领域的安全 ?在试图澄清这些迷雾之前 ,我们先来看一下关于安全的定义及其演变。按照辞海的释义 ,“安全”是指“不受威胁 ,或者没有危险、危害、损失”的状态。安全定义多用于军事国防领域 ,即所谓的“传统安全”概念 ,指的是不受外敌侵入威胁的“国家安全” ;在日常生活领域 ,矿工和地下工程人员所使用的“安全帽”、行人穿…     

Population dynamics and drought: A village in Niger

Summary The paper reports the results of demographic research in a rural village of about 1500 Hausaspeaking farmers in southern Niger, during the winter of 1973-74. The research site lies at the heart of the Sahel-sudanic zone just to the south of the Sahara, where drought, and in some areas, famine have exacted a heavy human, animal, and economic toll since 1968. The study was designed to measure and explain the change in the size and structure of the population during the years 1969-73. Social anthropological field techniques were used to ensure full and accurate reporting by community residents on all census topics. Data on rainfall and crop yields, on health and sanitary conditions, and on the political economy, social organization, and culture of the village were gathered in order to interpret the demographic situation The analysis of this data yields the following conclusions: 1. The population of the village appears younger (mean age: 15 years) and growing faster (mean doubling time: 23 years) than reported for Niger as a whole in 1972. 2. Contrary to what the researchers expected, the crude death rate, while relatively high to begin with, actually declined during the drought period (mean: 14.81); the crude birth rate remained very high (mean: 46.01), and the crude rate of increase rose from 1969 to 1973. 3. There was virtually no family out-migration from the target village during the drought, although the number of adult males participating in seasonal migrations to large West African towns rose from 35 per cent in 1969-70 to 75 per cent in 1973-74. 4. Problems of food production and distribution were acute, but thanks to the availability of donated foods, these were sufficiently short-lived during this drought cycle to make no discernible impact on population, although prolonged protein/calorie malnutrition among the very young may affect future fecundity.     

中国人口结构面面观

1年龄结构 年龄结构是最重要的人口自然结构之一.按照通常的三分法,0～14岁的少儿人口比重超高,人口就越年轻;15～64岁的劳动年龄人口比重越高,潜在的经济活动人口和负担年龄人口就越多;65岁及以上的老年人口比重越高,人口就越趋于老年型.     

China Population and Developmenl

The Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) paid great attention to the sexual and reproductive health of adolescents. One of the top priorities of the ICPD Programme of Action is to provide adolescents with necessary sexual and reproductive health information and services, ensure their right to reproductive health education and services, and help them develop risk-free behaviours and healthy lifestyles.     

Population and employment in China]

The unequal distribution of farmlands in rural areas and the extremely low productivity in the cities were the fundamental causes of unemployment and population problems in old China. Tremendous progress was made after 1949. The serious economic disturbances caused by Lin-piao and the "Gang of Four" caused great unemployment again. The slow development of China's productivity, poor business management, the involvement of women in social activities, the morality rate decrease, and the population growth rate increase are the main reasons for China's unemployment problem. The fundamental solution is to respect the objective laws of nature and economics and to develop social productivity. In the country we should implement the total development of agricultue, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. In towns and cities service occupations and handicraft industries should be developed, education and humanities need to be improved, and transportation, communications, and many other industries are still backward. There is high potential for development and vast opportunities for additional labor. We should constantly cultivate our high quality workforce to meet the demand of modernization. Population control is important because the higher the population growth rate the slower the accumulation of wealth. Instead of being a producer for the society the additional labor can be a burden. The vital factor in achieving the "Four Modernizations" is not the quantity of labor but the increase in productivity.     

人口偏好结构转变、人口质量红利与农业发展：以中国东部地区为例

由工业化、城市化引致的农村人口偏好结构转变加速农业发展模式转变,农村人力资本水平提升为农业由人口数量红利型向人口质量红利型发展带来新的契机。作为内地经济最发达的东部地区在农村人口偏好结构正在发生转变的背景下,人力资本虽对农业增长具有正向作用但低于现代物质资本的贡献,东部地区农业发展仍依赖物质资本红利。随着工业化和城市化的持续推进,农村人口质量偏好进一步得到强化,东部地区将率先实现人口质量红利型农业发展模式。     

我国人口年龄结构、储蓄效应与经济增长

本文遵循生命周期理论,在构建三期世代交叠模型的基础上,研究了人口年龄结构、储蓄率与经济增长之间的关系.本文运用1991-2010年我国29个省(市、自治区)的省际面板数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:实证分析结果与理论模型的预测分析相一致,其中少年儿童抚养比与储蓄率成呈负相关关系,老年抚养比的寿命效应超过了负担效应与储蓄率呈正相关关系,人口结构变量对人均GDP的影响大都通过了显著性检验,对被解释变量储蓄率和人均GDP增长进行了较好的解释.     

Population dynamics in Germany: the role of immigration and population momentum

The effects of changes in rates of mortality, fertility, and migration depend not only on the age-specific patterns and levels of these rates, but on the age structure of the population. In order to remove the influences of the age structure and concentrate on the effects of the demographic rates themselves, a common practice is to analyze the influences of the rates for a standard age structure. This paper analyzes current and future population changes in Germany, using a stationary population equivalent model (SPE) that shows long-term effects of current fertility, mortality, and international migration patterns. Results indicate that the German population will eventually decline because of below replacement fertility, if net immigration does not counteract this decrease. This means, for instance, that the long-term stationary population levels for Germany will decrease by approximately 6.5 million during a decade in which current fertility, mortality, and international migration levels prevail. The paper also reports how various other assumptions for mortality, fertility, and international migration affect the SPE model for Germany.     

Emigration and living standards in Ireland since the Famine

Ireland experienced dramatic levels of emigration in the century following the Famine of 1845–1849. The paper surveys the recent cliometric literature on post-Famine emigration and its effects on Irish living standards. The conclusions are that the Famine played a significant role in unleashing the subsequent emigration; and that emigration was crucial for the impressive increase in Irish living standards which took place during the next 100 years.Revised version of a paper read at the ESF Research Conference on Migration and Development, Aghia Pelaghia, Crete, Greece, October 7–12, 1994. I am grateful to Cormac Ó Gráda, Jeffrey Williamson and Klaus F. Zimmermann for comments and suggestions, and especially to three anonymous referees, as well as Tim Hatton and Alan Taylor who suggested the quantitative exercise to be found towards the end of Sect. 3.