Making the Housing Unit Method Work: An Evaluation of 2010 Population Estimates in Florida

The housing unit (HU) method—in which population estimates are derived from estimates of occupied HUs—is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. It is widely used because it is conceptually simple, can utilize a wide variety of data sources, can be applied at virtually any level of geography, and often produces reliable estimates. Yet the HU method is more nearly a general approach to population estimation than it is a specific methodology. In this paper, we describe and evaluate several data sources and estimation techniques that can be used in applying the HU method. Using a set of county and subcounty estimates produced by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida for April 1, 2010, we analyze errors by population size and growth rate, calculate errors for each of the three components of the HU method, and investigate the accuracy of estimates based on several different data sources and estimation techniques. We compare the accuracy of the 2010 estimates with previous BEBR estimates and estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. We conclude that although some data sources and estimation techniques work better than others, the HU method can be tailored to produce reliable population estimates for a wide variety of geographic areas.     

Risk of Developing Dementia at Older Ages in the United States

Dementia is increasingly recognized as a major source of disease burden in the United States, yet little research has evaluated the lifecycle implications of dementia. To address this research gap, this article uses the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS) to provide the first nationally representative, longitudinal estimates of the probability that a dementia-free person will develop dementia later in life. For the 1920 birth cohort, the average dementia-free 70-year-old male had an estimated 26.9 % (SE = 3.2 %) probability of developing dementia, and the average dementia-free 70-year-old female had an estimated 34.7 % (SE = 3.7 %) probability. These estimates of risk of dementia are higher for younger, lower-mortality cohorts and are substantially higher than those found in local epidemiological studies in the United States, suggesting a widespread need to prepare for a life stage with dementia.     

Obesity and excess mortality among the elderly in the United States and Mexico

Increasing levels of obesity could compromise future gains in life expectancy in low-and high-income countries. Although excess mortality associated with obesity and, more generally, higher levels of body mass index (BMI) have been investigated in the United States, there is little research about the impact of obesity on mortality in Latin American countries, where very the rapid rate of growth of prevalence of obesity and overweight occur jointly with poor socioeconomic conditions. The aim of this article is to assess the magnitude of excess mortality due to obesity and overweight in Mexico and the United States. For this purpose, we take advantage of two comparable data sets: the Health and Retirement Study 2000 and 2004 for the United States, and the Mexican Health and Aging Study 2001 and 2003 for Mexico. We find higher excess mortality risks among obese and overweight individuals aged 60 and older in Mexico than in the United States. Yet, when analyzing excess mortality among different socioeconomic strata, we observe greater gaps by education in the United States than in Mexico. We also find that although the probability of experiencing obesity-related chronic diseases among individuals with high BMI is larger for the U. S. elderly, the relative risk of dying conditional on experiencing these diseases is higher in Mexico.     

Immigration and living arrangements: Moving beyond economic need versus acculturation

Prior research seeking to explain variation in extended family coresidence focused heavily on the potentially competing roles of cultural preferences and socioeconomic and demographic structural constraints. We focus on challenges associated with international immigration as an additional factor driving variation across groups. Using 2000 census data from Mexico and the United States, we compare the prevalence and age patterns of various types of extended family and non-kin living arrangements among Mexican-origin immigrants and nonimmigrants on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. Additionally, we use the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine the stability of extended family living arrangements among Mexican-origin immigrants and natives in the United States. We find that newly arrived immigrants to the United States display unique patterns in the composition and stability of their households relative to nonimmigrants in both Mexico and the United States. Recent immigrants are more likely to reside in an extended family or non-kin household, and among those living with relatives, recent immigrants are more likely to live with extended family from a similar generation (such as siblings and cousins). Further, these households experience high levels of turnover. The results suggest that the high levels of coresidence observed among recently arrived Mexican immigrants represent a departure from “traditional” household/family structures in Mexico and are related to the challenges associated with international migration.     

Combining forward and backward mortality estimation

Demographers often form estimates by combining information from two data sources—a challenging problem when one or both data sources are incomplete. A classic example entails the construction of death probabilities, which requires death counts for the subpopulations under study and corresponding base population estimates. Approaches typically entail ‘back projection', as in Wrigley and Schofield's seminal analysis of historical English data, or ‘inverse’ or ‘forward projection’ as used by Lee in his important reanalysis of that work, both published in the 1980s. Our paper shows how forward and backward approaches can be optimally combined, using a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. We apply the method to the estimation of death probabilities for relatively small subpopulations within the United States (men born 1930–39 by state of birth by birth cohort by race), combining data from vital statistics records and census samples.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.     

An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit (HU) method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. These estimates are used for a wide variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes. Given their importance, periodic evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this article, we evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000. We investigate the influence of differences in population size and growth rate on estimation errors; compare the accuracy of several alternative techniques for estimating each of the major components of the HU method; compare the accuracy of 2000 estimates with that of estimates produced in 1980 and 1990; compare the accuracy of HU population estimates with that of estimates derived from other estimation methods; consider the role of professional judgment and the use of averaging in the construction of population estimates; and explore the impact of controlling one set of estimates to another. Our results confirm a number of findings that have been reported before and provide empirical evidence on several issues that have received little attention in the literature. We conclude with several observations regarding future directions in population estimation research.     

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Multidimensional Poverty in the United States over the Last Decade

This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of multidimensional poverty in the United States over the last decade. It provides estimates of multidimensional poverty over more than a decade, from 2008 to 2019, which covers the Great Recession and the recovery following the recession when major policy changes such as the Affordable Care Act were implemented. For the first time, spatial trends in estimates of multidimensional poverty are also provided. We measure annual poverty levels in 4 regions, 50 states and examine the relation between multidimensional poverty and neighborhood characteristics. We find that on average, 13 percent of the United States population was multidimensional poor. Poverty rates were high in the South and the West and among young adults, immigrants and Hispanics. Alternative indices of multidimensional poverty show consistent trends; multidimensional poverty in the United States rose between 2008 and 2010 and then gradually declined. However, more than a quarter of individuals with incomes above the poverty threshold remained multidimensional poor. This underscores the fact that income does not always capture deprivation experienced by individuals. Policies geared towards affordable housing, health insurance and higher education will help reduce multidimensional poverty in the United States.

     

Measurement and Replication: Evaluating the Consistency of Eight U. S. Fertility Surveys

This paper addresses the comparability of data from eight national fertility surveys conducted in the United States between 1955 and 1980. We examine the extent to which substantive conclusions about the levels and correlates of the timing offirst birth vary across these data sources by comparing samples of women who were eligible to be included in more than one study. Results obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression analyses of several measures of timing indicate few study effects. Thus findings based on data from one survey can be replicated with comparable data from another. One notable exception is the relationship between contraceptive use prior to the first birth and the timing of that birth. The contraceptive variable appears to be poorly measured, leading to unstable estimates of the relationship. In general, our results suggest: (1) the feasibility of pooling data from the various surveys when modeling delayed childbearing; and (2) reasonable accuracy in assessing trends in the timing of first birth from multiple data sources.     

How does POSSLQ measure up? Historical estimates of cohabitation

We use March Current Population Survey (CPS) data from 1977 to 1997 to produce a new historical series of indirect cohabitation prevalence estimates. We compare our new estimates with those produced by the traditional method and evaluate the new estimates. We then compare the indirect estimates with the new direct estimates to investigate whether biases exist in the indirect estimates. Our findings indicate that the traditional indirect method of estimating cohabitation prevalence underestimates cohabitors in different subpopulations, especially among those with children. We also find that the new indirect measure produces relatively unbiased estimates of cohabitors' characteristics.     

American fertility in transition: New estimates of birth rates in the United States, 1900–1910

This article presents new estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the entire United States for the period 1900-1910. The estimation techniques are the two-census parity increment method and the own-children method. The data sources are the 1900 census public use sample and tabulations of 1910 census fertility data published with the 1940 census. Estimates are made for the total population, whites, native-born whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Low age-specific marital fertility at younger ages is consistent with a view of a distinctive American fertility pattern at this time.     

The number of Israeli immigrants in the United States in 1990

In this paper we estimate the size of several categories of “Israeli” immigrants in the United States. According to the 1990 U.S. census, there were about 95,000 Israeli-born immigrants in the United States in that year. Using the language and ancestry information available in the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) of the 1990 census, we estimate that of this total, about 80,000 are Jews and 15,000 are Palestinian Arabs born in Israel. In addition to the Israeli-born, we present a range for the number of Jewish immigrants from Israel who are not Israeli-born (about 30,000-56,000). Thus our estimate for the total number of Jewish immigrants from Israel in the United States in 1990 is between 110,000 and 135,000. Fertility information available in the PUMS, also enable us to provide estimates for the number of second-generation Israelis in the United States in the 1990 (about 42,000). Finally, using both the 1980 and 1990 PUMS, we provide estimates for the rate of return migration among Israeli-born Jewish immigrants in the United States.     

Nonresponse in repeat population-based voluntary counseling and testing for HIV in rural Malawi

Despite the increasing number of population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa that provide testing and counseling for HIV over the past decade, understanding the nature of nonresponse in these surveys, especially panel HIV surveys, is still limited. This article uses longitudinal HIV data collected from rural Malawi in 2004 and 2006 to examine nonresponse in repeat population-based testing. It shows that nonresponse in repeat testing led to significant bias in the estimates of HIV prevalence and to inconsistent conclusions about the predictors of HIV status. In contrast, previous cross-sectional analyses found that nonresponse does not significantly bias the estimates of HIV prevalence. The difference in conclusions from cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of nonresponse can be attributed to two factors: the different definitions of what constitutes nonresponse in both contexts, and the risk profiles of the missed populations. In particular, although refusal and temporary absence are the major sources ofnonresponse in the cross-sectional contexts, attrition attributable to mortality and out-migration are additional sources of nonresponse in repeat testing. Evidence shows that out-migrants have higher HIV prevalence than nonmigrants, which could account for significant bias in the estimates of prevalence among participants in both tests observed in this study.     

Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient.     

避孕套在美国的推广及其启示

在美国 ,避孕套是一种受欢迎的可避孕可预防传染病的工具。本文利用相关文献资料并通过实地考察 ,研究了避孕套在美国的推广等问题。这类研究对在中国进一步开展计划生育、增进民众防病意识、提高公众健康水平有一定的借鉴意义。     

Measuring Geographic Migration Patterns Using <Emphasis Type="Italic">Matrículas Consulares</Emphasis>

In this article, we show how to use administrative data from the Matrícula Consular de Alta Seguridad (MCAS) identification card program to measure the joint distribution of sending and receiving locations for migrants from Mexico to the United States. Whereas other data sources cover only a small fraction of source or destination locations or include only very coarse geographic information, the MCAS data provide complete geographic coverage of both countries, detailed information on migrants’ sources and destinations, and a very large sample size. We first confirm the quality and representativeness of the MCAS data by comparing them with well-known household surveys in Mexico and the United States, finding strong agreement on the migrant location distributions available across data sets. We then document substantial differences in the mix of destinations for migrants from different places within the same source state, demonstrating the importance of detailed substate geographical information. We conclude with an example of how these detailed data can be used to study the effects of destination-specific conditions on migration patterns. We find that an Arizona law reducing employment opportunities for unauthorized migrants decreased emigration from and increased return migration to Mexican source regions with strong initial ties to Arizona.     

Revising Infant Mortality Rates for the Early Twentieth Century United States

Accurate vital statistics are required to understand the evolution of racial disparities in infant health and the causes of rapid secular decline in infant mortality during the early twentieth century. Unfortunately, U.S. infant mortality rates prior to 1950 suffer from an upward bias stemming from a severe underregistration of births. At one extreme, African American births in southern states went unregistered at the rate of 15 % to 25 %. In this study, we construct improved estimates of births and infant mortality in the United States for 1915–1940 using recently released complete count decennial census microdata combined with the counts of infant deaths from published sources. We check the veracity of our estimates with a major birth registration study completed in conjunction with the 1940 decennial census and find that the largest adjustments occur in states with less-complete birth registration systems. An additional advantage of our census-based estimation method is the extension backward of the birth and infant mortality series for years prior to published estimates of registered births, enabling previously impossible comparisons and estimations. Finally, we show that underregistration can bias effect estimates even in a panel setting with specifications that include location fixed effects and place-specific linear time trends.     

Circular, invisible, and ambiguous migrants: components of difference in estimates of the number of unauthorized Mexican migrants in the United States

Based on an equation that can be used with available data and that provides a basis for facilitating decomposition analyses, this research estimates that about 2.54 million total (as opposed to enumerated) unauthorized Mexicans resided in the United States in 1996. Comparing this figure with an estimate of about 2.70 million released by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) during the 1990s, we find that the two estimates involve different assumptions about circular, invisible, and ambiguous migrants. Such differences not only can have important policy implications; they can also be sizable and can operate in opposite directions, as illustrated by findings from a components-of-difference analysis. The results are also extrapolated to 2000, and implications for 2000 census counts are discussed.     

Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses

Patterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e ^†, a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e ^†. The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e ^† correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.     

Health Endowment at Birth and Variation in Intergenerational Economic Mobility: Evidence From U.S. County Birth Cohorts

New estimates of intergenerational economic mobility reveal substantial variation in the spatial distribution of opportunity in the United States. Efforts to explain this variation in economic mobility have conspicuously omitted health despite it being a key pathway for the transmission of economic position across generations. We begin to fill this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between health endowment at birth and intergenerational economic mobility across county birth cohorts in the United States, drawing on estimates from two population-level data sets. Exploiting variation across counties and over time, we find a negative relationship between the incidence of low-weight births and the level of economic mobility as measured in adulthood for the county birth cohorts in our sample. Our results build on a large and growing literature detailing the role of early childhood health in the transmission of economic status across generations and suggest that the incidence of low-weight births is negatively associated with intergenerational economic mobility.