农村计划生育与农民生活满意度研究

基于6个省1586户农户的问卷调查数据,运用次序Logit模型,探讨农村计划生育、农村卫生事业、区域环境特征、农民个人特征、家庭特征对农民生活满意度的影响。结果表明,农村计划生育的两个因素中只有是否享受奖扶政策对农民生活满意度有显著影响,是否受过超生惩罚对农民生活满意度没有显著影响,农村卫生事业的两个因素,参加新型合作医疗制度以后看病是否改善和医疗支出负担对农民生活满意度都有显著的影响。根据分析结果提出以下政策建议:在今后的农村公共事业发展中,政府应渐进增加农村公共事业支出比重,进一步完善利益导向政策体系,适当提高奖励扶助标准,加大对农村超生家庭的处罚力度,使惩罚标准与收入及财产相对应。     

市场、政府与贫困地区农牧民的增收——基于新疆30个贫困县面板数据

利用2000—2009年新疆30个贫困县的面板数据,着重研究了市场化程度和政府行为对新疆贫困地区农牧民增收的影响。研究发现:市场化程度和财政支出对农牧民增收都具有明显的促进作用;市场化程度和财政支出对南疆贫困地区农牧民的增收作用要大于北疆;总体来看,市场要比政府更有效,政府应为贫困地区农牧民提供更多的权利和公平。在此基础上,提出相关政策建议。     

养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异--基于5省1573个样本的实证分析

利用5省22个乡镇1573个样本的调查数据,探讨了养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异。研究发现：第一,农民养老风险感知的普遍程度较高,家庭养老保障能力评估是影响农民养老风险感知的重要因素,新农保作为一种有限保障并不能降低农民的养老风险感知。第二,农民的养老风险感知存在代际差异,其中家庭养老保障能力评估和社会养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响存在代际差异,这主要是因为不同代际农民的养老观念、消费观念、所处的人生阶段存在差异所形成的。由此提出政府要正确认识农民的养老风险感知及其代际差异,着力在增加农民收入和提高新农保待遇水平两方面采取措施降低农民的养老风险感知,以避免养老危机的发生。     

新型农村合作医疗的参合补助——悖论及路径优化

新农合的财政补助水平与农民需求存在较大缺口,客观上需要政府提高补助水平。但由于农民有限理性的存在,在个人缴费在先且与财政补助同比增长的制度安排下,形成了农民既需要参合补助,又不愿因增加个人缴费以获得补助的悖论,且此情况会因制度供给缺陷而激化。因此,需要对新农合的参合补助路径进行优化。设计灵活的参合缴费模式,调整农民缴费与政府补助的增长幅度,提高农民医疗补偿的比例都是可行的选择。     

农民“养儿防老”观念的代际差异及转变趋向

文章基于2009年全国10个省份千户农民的调查数据,利用逐步回归技术和交互分析方法,实证分析农民"养儿防老"观念的代际差异及其转变趋向。结果显示,农民"养儿防老"观念表现出显著的代际差异,并且随着时代的发展,农民"养儿防老"观念呈现出明显的弱化趋势,而"养女防老"观念正在农村悄然兴起。农民"养儿防老"观念受多种因素影响,并且代际差异明显。"养儿防老"观念重点转向"依靠自己",但"依靠子女"和"依靠社保"也成为农民应对老年生活风险的重要策略,农民养老保障策略的"三足鼎立之势"已经显现,即以"依靠自己"为主,以"依靠子女"为基础,以"依靠社保"为补充的福利三角框架。     

农民社会养老意愿和缴费能力分析——基于陕西省关中地区的调查

社会保障制度是有效的社会风险化解机制,对于以国家为主导的农民社会养老保障建设成功与否,不仅取决于未来国家对农村社会养老保障供给的数量与质量,更取决于农民社会养老保障制度的主要供给者——政府对农民真实需求的了解、把握与满足程度。调查地区农民在养老保障项目上可承受的支付金额的平均值为32.06元/月,农民在养老保障项目上的支付上限值为当地农民年人均纯收入的17.29%,高于此比例,则影响农民正常的生活水平,而农民普遍能够接受的适宜比例值为10.61%。     

老龄化是否影响我国农业生产？--基于三大粮食品种的观察

本文基于全国农村固定观察点的农户数据,统计分析了当前我国农业劳动力年龄的分布情况,比较了老年农户和中青年农户在农业劳动时间、农业经营规模和粮食产量等方面的差异。研究表明,老年农业劳动时间占家庭农业总劳动时间的比例呈平稳上升趋势。老年农户经营规模化程度低于中青年农户,户均粮食产量和粮食播种面积逐渐接近并超过中青年农户。老年农户的优势品种为水稻,中青年农户为玉米。从现有观察结果来看,老龄化暂时没有表现出对粮食生产的负效应。     

Property Size and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper considers the size of a farmer’s property as a key variable influencing land cover and land cover change in rural areas of developing countries. Data from 126 rural familial properties in the region around the city of Santarém, Pará, in the Brazilian Amazon, indicate that property size is important for understanding the trajectories of land cover change. Past research has focused on the distinction between small family farms and large capitalized farms, arguing that family farmers have a higher deforestation intensity, or on estimating the strength of the effect of property size relative to economic or demographic factors. This paper shows that larger familial properties are able both to retain a larger area in forest and to have long enough cycles of use and fallow to allow previously used land to become forested again. Based on these analyses and discussion, we argue that land use and land cover research must consider property size as an organizing principle in order to better comprehend the reciprocal relationship between population and environment in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon and other rural landscapes.     

The dwelling conditions and procreative behaviours (a causal study on the example of individual farmers)

"The objective of the research was to identify relationships between the size of the dwelling place as defined by the number of its rooms and area, on one hand, and the parity attained in families of individual farmers who entered into marriages in the years 1926-84, on the other. The source material was derived from a sampling questionnaire survey conducted [in Poland] among 1,621 families of individual farmers keeping agricultural accountancy as on 1 January 1985.... The size of the dwelling expressed by its average size in the period from the day of the marriage to the birth of the last child and at the moment of observation is more significant for explaining the parity of families than the size of the dwelling in the first year following the marriage."     

农村“妇小贷”政策满意度模型构建的实证研究--基于PCA和Delphi赋权法

正式试点实施已逾六年的妇女小额担保贷款（以下简称“妇小贷”）政策以其显著的经济和社会效益倍受广大妇女特别是农村妇女的高度称赞,然而学界围绕农村“妇小贷”的研究并不深入和全面。本研究以626户借贷农妇的调研数据为依托,基于主成份分析（PCA）和德尔菲法（Delphi）主客观结合确定指标权重的方法,构建起了“妇小贷”农妇满意度模型;以期为该政策及其它基于性别视角下的公共政策深入研究工作提供参考。     

Measuring Progress and Well-Being: A Comparative Review of Indicators

We provide a new database sampling well-being and progress indicators implemented since the 1970s at all geographic scales. Starting from an empirical assessment, we describe and quantify trends in the institutional basis, methodology, and content of indicators which are intended to capture the broadest conceptions of human social progress. We pay special attention to the roles of sustainability and subjective well-being in these efforts, and find that certain types of indicators are more successful in terms of transparency, accountability, as well as longevity. Our taxonomy encompasses money-denominated accounts of “progress”, unaggregated collections of indicators, indices, and measures oriented around subjective well-being. We find that a most promising innovation is the indices whose weights are accountable to empirical data, in particular through models of subjective well-being. We conclude by amplifying others’ advocacy for the appropriate separation of current well-being from environmental indicators, and for the avoidance of aggregation except where it is meaningful.     

新型农村合作医疗福利效应研究

文章从农民的福利感受和政策的福利效应两个维度考察新农合的政策效果。全国10个省30个村的千户农民调查数据显示,新农合的福利性并未得到农民高度的认可,部分农民认为制度的最大受益者是医疗机构、基层政府而非农民。新农合在提高农民看病积极性、改善农村卫生条件和农民健康状况等方面已初具成效。新农合在农民的参与,制度的设计与运行、实施与监督等方面存在的突出问题,影响了农民的福利感受和政策的福利效应。     

参合农民对新型农村合作医疗的满意度分析——对山东省青州市谭坊镇农民的调研

参合农民对新型农村合作医疗的满意度决定着农民的参合意愿,进而影响政策的运行。通过对青州市谭坊镇参合农民的200份问卷调查,运用SPSS18.0软件进行频数、交叉、有序Logistic分析,结合访谈过程中管理层次反映的经验和困难,分析参合农民对新型农村合作医疗的满意度。结果显示,参合农民对新型农村合作医疗总体上较为满意,但对筹资额的组成部分认知较差。参合农民对报销补偿等的满意情况、自身的身体状况、对经办机构(含经管办、收取个人缴费、政策宣传的村干部等)的满意情况、新农合对农民"看病难、看病贵"的改善情况等四个方面对满意度影响较大,家庭人均年收入对满意度有反向作用。     

Illuminating urban street (u)topias

ABSTRACT

A utopian vision of the city is often bright, well-lit, and conversely darkness and night are more often associated with dystopia. This paper uses an ethnographic study of night-time in a busy street space in the middle of a south coast UK city in order to demonstrate the application of ‘utopia as method’, or rather utopia as a mobile method in understanding justice and injustice in urban space. In doing so, we suggest the possibilities of urban mobile space, arguing that ‘utopia as method’ originates in Lefebvre’s (1991) work on the possibilities that arise from the seemingly impossible imaginings of urban transformation. We use what are considered to be distinct approaches to photography: ‘ethnographic’ and ‘expressive’ in demonstrating this. Photography tells a story of the lighting of the space in illuminating the street in particular ways and making visible aspects that otherwise may go unnoticed. We draw from the boundaries, of photography (and therefore light), of method, and of urban space, looking to the ‘territorial edges’ for Lefebvre’s possibilities.     

“G—D—F复合安置”模式的提出、构建与实证

当前我国失地农民的安置中存在比较突出的问题和尖锐的矛盾,如何安置失地农民已成为社会各界关注的焦点。基于博弈论与复合行政理论对失地农民进行安置研究,提出了具有普适性的＂G—D—F复合安置＂模式,其运行过程模型对安置主体进行了动态的利益博弈分析,并通过＂复合问责＂等机制对运行加以保障。通过长沙实证,验证并得出了G—D—F五位一体的复合安置模式。     

Good for the Common Good: Sociotropic Concern and Double Standards toward High- and Low-Skilled Immigrants in Six Wealthy Countries

Immigration policy has conventionally implied a double standard, in which high-skilled immigrants are more acceptable due to their potential contribution to the national economy, little welfare burden, and better cultural adaption, while low-skilled ones are not favored, because of a belief in their limited contribution to the common good. In contrast to the egocentric interest explanation, we emphasize the importance of such sociotropic concerns and suggest that acceptance of immigrants with different skill levels is an outcome of perceived growth and distributional impacts or threatened cultural boundaries. Drawing data from the 2011 Transatlantic Trends: Immigration survey, we performed seemingly unrelated regression modelling to compare natives’ attitudinal responses in six wealthy countries. We found that in addition to the evidence that high-skilled immigrants are favored over low-skilled ones, the worry about welfare burden to the nation is one of the main factors causing locals to dislike low-skilled immigrants. The public who perceive immigrants’ threats to the national economy in terms of taking jobs away in general are also likely to disfavor high-skilled immigrants. Expectations of cultural assimilation are somewhat detached from acceptance of high-skilled immigrants. As the research results imply clear limitation of the double-standard perspective, we propose a new scheme for understanding both double- and single-standard views and incorporate these variations into the sociotropic theory and future research design.

     

“安居”还是“乐业”：农民城镇化困境的探析

文章基于社会学定性研究的方法,以安居和乐业为视角,利用一些典型案例阐释了农民城镇化困境。研究发现,在农民城镇化过程中,农村和小城镇给予农民的是安居：便宜的房子、低成本的生活、熟悉的环境、剪不断的乡情;而大城市给予农民的是乐业：就业机会多、工资待遇不低。农民城镇化困境分为传统类型、新类型、特殊类型三大类,在困境中,农民的“安居”与“乐业”不能兼得,经过进城买房的利弊权衡和外出打工的策略选择,在没有最优的情况下,绝大多数农民选择次优：青壮年进城打工“乐业”,老人和孩子留守农村“安居”。农民的城镇化困境不容忽视。     

城镇化过程中农民“带土进城”与农地权益保护

城镇化过程中农民土地权益不同程度地遭受损害,农民市民化进程减缓。农民能否可以带着土地权益转为市民?研究表明,农民"带土进城"保障了农民土地权益,有助于失地农民的就业安置,有助于农民享受城乡均等的社会公共服务。农民"带土进程"不但为农民工市民化提供了一个缓冲期,还一定程度上稀释了城镇化的社会成本,具有一定的合理性。     

The Schooling of Offspring and the Survival of Parents

Contemporary stratification research on developed societies usually views the intergenerational transmission of educational advantage as a one-way effect from parent to child. However, parents’ investment in their offspring’s schooling may yield significant returns for parents themselves in later life. For instance, well-educated offspring have greater knowledge of health and technology to share with their parents and more financial means to provide for them than do their less-educated counterparts. We use data from the 1992–2006 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine whether adult offspring’s educational attainments are associated with parents’ survival in the United States. We show that adult offspring’s educational attainments have independent effects on their parents’ mortality, even after controlling for parents’ own socioeconomic resources. This relationship is more pronounced for deaths that are linked to behavioral factors: most notably, chronic lower respiratory disease and lung cancer. Furthermore, at least part of the association between offspring’s schooling and parents’ survival may be explained by parents’ health behaviors, including smoking and physical activity. These findings suggest that one way to influence the health of the elderly is through their offspring. To harness the full value of schooling for health, then, a family and multigenerational perspective is needed.     

农村50岁以上独生子女父母与子女经济互动及养老预期——基于对全国5县调查

根据对全国5县(区)抽样调查,农村50岁以上独生子女老年父母家庭有近6成空巢。尽管这些父母的大多数觉得2个及以上孩子对于养老来说更好,但依靠子女养老和多代同堂观念已大为削弱。这些家庭代际间财富流动以子女对父母反哺为主。6成独生子女父母赞成与子女分开住,即使子女今后搬到城镇住,也有近一半人明确表示不会到子女家住,但他们同时并未显示出对社会养老保障的信任,这种窘境使这些曾为人口控制做出突出贡献的老人面临严峻的养老挑战。