Descriptive Analysis of the Individual Migratory Pathways According to Environmental Typologies

This study tests the influence of environmental changes on migration in Burkina Faso. It describes individual migratory pathways in the 1960–1999 period in Burkina Faso, using environmental typologies of origins and destinations based on rainfall variations and land degradation. The study links data from a national longitudinal (retrospective) survey with fine resolution rainfall data and land degradation data. Results suggest that environmental factors influence, but in different ways, both the probability to out-migrate and the selection of a destination once the migration decision has been made. Migration seems to be more influenced by a slow-acting process such as land degradation than by episodic events such as droughts.     

The use of survey data to study migration–environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection

Growing interest in the environmental aspects of migration is not matched by research on their interrelationships, due partly to the lack of adequate data sets on the two together. Focusing on the microlevel, we describe the data required to effectively investigate these interrelationships. Data sources are discussed, including information that should be collected, focusing on household surveys and remote sensing. The main section of the paper describes three alternative approaches to data collection: (a) using existing population and environmental data from different sources, illustrated by Burkina Faso; (b) adding questions to a survey developed for another purpose, illustrated for Guatemala using a DHS survey; and (c) designing a new survey specifically to collect both migration and environmental data to investigate interrelationships, illustrated by Ecuador. Methods used and summary findings are described, followed by a discussion of their advantages and limitations. We conclude with recommendations as to effective use of each approach as research on migration?Cenvironment linkages moves forward.     

Investigating important interactions between water and food security for child health in Burkina Faso

Failures in either water systems or food systems, or a combination of system failures, could provide the underlying explanation for continued high levels of malnutrition in many regions. We focus on child health and offer the first spatially explicit analysis of the interaction between water source and food insecurity on children’s health in Burkina Faso, an African nation that continues to struggle with poor children’s health. We combine data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey, a small USAID water quality survey collected from community wells, and remotely sensed imagery. Results suggest that, in a few cases, reliable and clean water sources are positively correlated to children’s linear growth and weight gain, although in many regions, the interaction with community-level food production is critical to understanding health outcomes. The results also suggest that maternal health and nutrition during pregnancy and breastfeeding are foundational to the healthy development of young children. In all, the findings provide evidence of the importance of multi-sectoral interventions targeted at improving children’s health.     

When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality

We study climate change and international migration in a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous climate change. Our main findings are that climate change increases migration; small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants; a laxer immigration policy increases long-run migration, aggravates climate change, and increases north–south inequality if climate change impacts are not too small; and a greener technology reduces emissions, long-run migration, and inequality if the migrants’ impact to overall climate change is large. The preference over the policies depends on whether the policy maker targets inequality, wealth, the environment, or the number of migrants.     

The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso

Using event history analyses, we investigate the impact of rainfall conditions — a crucial environmental factor in the livelihood of Sahelian households— on the risk of the first village departure in Burkina Faso. The distinction of migrations by destination and duration proves critical in studying this relationship. Findings suggest that people from the drier regions are more likely than those from wetter areas to engage in both temporary and permanent migrations to other rural areas. Also, short-term rainfall deficits tend to increase the risk of long-term migration to rural areas and decrease the risk of short-term moves to distant destinations.     

The Patterns of Disability in the Peripheral Neighborhoods of Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso,and the Male–Female Health‐Survival Paradox

Disability is a crucial health and social concern in sub‐Saharan Africa, where a high prevalence of disabling diseases is compounded with insufficient care provision. There is a need for detailed analysis of the disability patterns. We provide a gender‐specific picture for the population in peripheral Ouagadougou (Burkina‐Faso), based on six disability dimensions following the United Nations’ recommendations. We computed disability‐free life expectancy (LE) using the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Ouaga HDSS) (n = 1 902). Women have a longer partial LE in the 20–79 age range (+3.3 years), half of this LE being spent with a disability, versus 31% of the LE for men. Limitations in mobility, cognition, and eyesight occur in midadulthood and result in a considerable disadvantage for women in the number of years with these limitations. These findings highlight disability patterns that are detrimental to social participation and claim for better screening and care, especially for women.     

Migrant Networks and International Migration: Testing Weak Ties

This article examines the role of migrant social networks in international migration and extends prior research by testing the strength of tie theory, decomposing networks by sources and resources, and disentangling network effects from complementary explanations. Nearly all previous empirical research has ignored friendship ties and has largely neglected extended-family ties. Using longitudinal data from the Migration between Africa and Europe project collected in Africa (Senegal) and Europe (France, Italy, and Spain), this article tests the robustness of network theory—and in particular, the role of weak ties—on first-time migration between Senegal and Europe. Discrete-time hazard model results confirm that weak ties are important and that network influences appear to be gendered, but they do not uphold the contention in previous literature that strong ties are more important than weak ties for male and female migration. Indeed, weak ties play an especially important role in male migration. In terms of network resources, having more resources as a result of strong ties appears to dampen overall migration, while having more resources as a result of weaker ties appears to stimulate male migration. Finally, the diversity of resources has varied effects for male and female migration.     

Linking Food Security with Household’s Adaptive Capacity and Drought Risk: Implications for Sustainable Rural Development

In spite of green revolution and rapid economic growth, India’s vast population still suffers from hunger and poverty, especially in the rural areas. Moreover, drought adversely affects India’s economy by declining agricultural production and purchasing power. It also escalates rural unemployment which ultimately affects household food security. Our study investigated the food security of drought prone rural households in a broader context by linking the dimensions of food security with dimensions of climate change vulnerability. We used the primary data of 157 drought prone rural households of Odisha state in India for analysis. This study employed polychoric principal component analysis to construct an aggregate food security index. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. The FSI showed that three-fourth of the respondents were facing food security issues with varying degrees. The estimates of ordered probit model indicated that joint family, education, migration and health insurance are key variables that determine food security, whereas drought adversely affected food security of rural households. Overarching strategies are required to effectively address food security issues in the wake of increased drought risk. This study provides an insight for policy makers in India and in similar south Asian countries who must consider food security in the light of drought.

     

Men’s condom use in higher-risk sex: Trends in five sub-Saharan African countries

This paper analyses trends in men’s condom use at last higher-risk sex (i.e., with a non-marital, non-cohabiting partner) using the two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in five sub-Saharan African countries: Cameroon, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and Burkina Faso. Condom use is an important method of preventing HIV transmission. Encouragingly, higher-risk sex has declined in four of the five countries, while condom use rose substantially in Cameroon, Tanzania and Burkina Faso but only had a minor increase in Kenya and Zambia, where use at last higher-risk sex remains below 50 per cent. There are no clear patterns of change across countries in the predictive strength of the explanatory variables between the two most recent surveys, although evidence of a widening gap in use by education in Cameroon is identified. In each country, lack of education remains a strong barrier to condom use in higher-risk sex.     

Rainfall variations and child mortality in the Sahel: results from a comparative event history analysis in Burkina Faso and Mali

Over the last 40 years, the Sahel has seen a long-term downward trend in rainfall. The importance of ecological variables as factors affecting child survival in rural subsistence societies has already been emphasized, but little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this. This paper presents a comparative event history analysis aimed at understanding how rainfall variations may influence child mortality in two neighbouring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries are similar in terms of population dynamics, economy, livelihood, child mortality and rainfall conditions (i.e. strong south–north decreasing rainfall gradient). Individual data for both countries came from two detailed nationally representative retrospective surveys conducted in 2000. Rainfall data for the 1960–1998 time period were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit. This study shows that child survival in each country is related to specific patterns of rainfall variation across livelihood regions, highlighting the complex nature of environmental causality of child mortality.     

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.     

Agrarian structure and social organization in a risk-prone environment: A comparison of the Birifor,Dagara, and the Lobi people of Burkina Faso

Differences in spatial organization among the Lobi, Birifor, and Dagara communities in Burkina Faso can be argued to account for differential risk for onchocerciasis in these populations. A logistic regression analysis suggests that the pattern of land use and a number of related factors contribute to the risk of differential microfilarial load. It appears that the unique agrarian structures of the Birifor and Dagara communities represent a successful social adaptation to the threat of the blackfly disease, and that adoption of the forms of spatial organization found in the Birifor and Dagara communities by regional governments could aid in controlling the blackfly more permanently.     

Hunger,nutrition, and precipitation: evidence from Ghana and Bangladesh

Population and Environment - Changing precipitation patterns caused by climate change are expected to have major impacts on food security and nutrition in agrarian areas in developing countries....     

New MDGs, Development Concepts, Principles and Challenges in a Post-2015 World

As we approach 2015 the question of what, if anything, should replace the MDGs becomes increasingly important. This paper presents findings from studies on the implementation of the poverty, education and gender MDGs in Kenya and South Africa. These show how top-down processes associated with meeting the MDG targets led by government or large NGOs are disassociated from bottom-up engagements with gender, education and poverty by households or communities. A missing middle linked with professional action by teachers or civil servants and enhanced information flow means that groups from the top and the bottom talk past each other. We therefore argue that these experiences with implementing the MDGs, coupled with a variety of global changes since 2000s, mean that a major concern in developing a set of post 2015 goals is the need to address the disarticulation between ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approaches in international development. We link this challenge with five principles put forward for post 2015 goals and indicators: holism, equity, sustainability, ownership and global obligation. The application of this approach to work on goals and targets is illustrated in relation to nutrition/food security and secondary education.     

Food security in an era of economic volatility

This article analyzes international commodity price movements, assesses food policies in response to price fluctuations, and explores the food security implications of price volatility on low-income groups. It focuses specifically on measurements, causes, and consequences of recent food price trends, variability around those trends, and price spikes. Combining these three components of price dynamics shows that the variation in real prices post-2000 was substantially greater than that in the 1980s and 1990s, and was approximately equal to the extreme volatility in commodity prices that was experienced in the 1970s. Macro policy, exchange rates, and petroleum prices were important determinants of price variability over 2005–2010, highlighting the new linkages between the agriculture-energy and agriculture-finance markets that affect the world food economy today. These linkages contributed in large part to misguided expectations and uncertainty that drove prices to their peak in 2008. The article also argues that there is a long-lasting effect of price spikes on food policy around the world, often resulting in self-sufficiency policies that create even more volatility in international markets. The efforts by governments to stabilize prices frequently contribute to even greater food insecurity among poor households, most of which are in rural areas and survive on the margin of net consumption and net production. Events of 2008—and more recently in 2010—underscore the impact of price variability for food security and the need for refocused policy approaches to prevent and mitigate price spikes.     

Disasters,migrations, and the unintended consequences of urbanization: What’s the harm in getting out of harm’s way?

Under many circumstances, the global rural-to-urban migration trend may be increasingly adopted as a short-term coping strategy to shifting ecologies and natural disasters. While offering certain benefits from macro-level economic and public health perspectives, these migrations may also have unintended psychological consequences that are not easily understood through traditional disaster studies or cost–benefit analyses. If the goal of disaster and climate change research is to promote successful adaptation, then the long-term psychological well-being of people who have survived disaster and either adapted in situ or migrated into urban environments, is paramount. This article integrates research on disasters and climate change-induced migration with emerging perspectives from environmental psychology and the psychology of natural disasters to consider the potential costs of particular migration scenarios. We apply this analysis to the case of Shishmaref, Alaska, a rural Iñupiat community on the northwest coast of Alaska facing habitual flooding disasters linked to climate change. Findings from Shishmaref illustrate the cultural vitality of subsistence landscapes and the potential health risks of compromised human–ecological relationships due to migration and/or displacement. Recommendations for policy makers and researchers are offered for promoting long-term well-being among affected individuals and communities.     

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.     

Norms and Behaviour in Burkinabe Fertility

In this paper a combination of methods is used to investigate the determinants of birth-interval length in a single city in Burkina Faso. First, a multi-round survey provided accurate measurement of dates of reproductive events. Secondly, open-ended interviews with a sub-sample of women from the survey were tape-recorded and transcribed. In order to disentangle the direct and indirect biological and behavioural determinants of birth-interval length, seven series of hazards models were estimated. These results were compared with women's perceptions of the same relationships revealed in the in-depth interviews. The lesson we draw is that no single data-collection strategy can provide answers to all questions of interest. The multi-round survey provides accurate information on actual behaviour, but at great cost. The in-depth interviews enable the investigator to study norms and motivations, but this method is impractical for data collection for a large representative sample. Combining the two strategies can yield insights that may enhance the effectiveness of programme interventions.     

Of (not) being neighbors: cities,citizens and climate change in an age of migrations

ABSTRACT

Borders are back with a vengeance. From the Americas to the Mediterranean, borders cut through the increasingly integrated world in a way that exposes the inside-outside logic of contemporary capitalism. All this happens on a backdrop where cities are becoming the key sites of contestation since borders and levees do not suffice to keep them intact. Cities are also increasingly becoming the focus of international efforts to deal with climate change and migration, where nation-states are falling short. By synthesizing the possibilities of urban belonging and right-to-the-world, we argue that new urban imaginaries are at the frontline of the mobilities debate today. Consequently, we argue for a cross-pollination of mobility justice and climate justice as urban citizenship. The main thrust of our argument is that there are viable alternatives to the isolationist fortress nation model, which can bring a new dimension to debates concerning climate change and migration. Fearless cities are but one example of these emerging alternatives. By focusing on the opportunities for a radical response to climate change and migration, we suggest that cities can respond to the burning mobility challenges of our times with a just, grounded and egalitarian urban citizenship framed as mobile commons.     

The United Nations on Levels and Trends of International Migration and Related Policies

Issues of international migration are drawing increasing attention not only from governments and their national constituencies but also from international organizations, notably from various components of the United Nations system. Better understanding of the causes of the flows of international migration and their relationship with development and answers to policy questions arising therefrom are, however, hampered by scarcity of up‐to‐date and reliable quantitative information concerning international migration. As a step toward remedying this gap, in March 2003 the Population Division of the United Nations issued a report, presumably the first of a series, titled International Migration Report 2002. A review essay by David Coleman discussing this publication appears in the book review section of the present issue of PDR. The bulk of this 323‐page document presents statistical profiles for more than 200 countries and territories and also for various regional aggregates. These summaries provide data or estimates (when available or feasible) on population, migrant stock, refugees, and remittances by migrant workers for 1990 and 2000, and on average annual net migration flows for 1990–95 and 1995–2000. These profiles also offer characterization of government views on policies relating to levels of immigration and emigration. According to the report, the total number of international migrants—those residing in a country other than where they were born—was 175 million in 2000, or about 3 percent of the world population. In absolute terms, this global number is about twice as large as it was in 1970, and exceeds the 1990 estimate by some 21 million. The introductory chapters of the report discuss problems in measuring international migration and summarize major trends in international migration policies since the mid‐1970s. An additional chapter reproduces a recent report of the Secretary‐General to the United Nations General Assembly on international migration. Reproduced below is much of the “Overview” section of the report (pp. 1–5). In addition to its published form (New York: United Nations, 2002, ST/ESA/SER.A/220), the full report is accessible on the Internet: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/ittmigrep2002.htm