政府会计改革对政府债务规模的影响分析

基于近年来实施政府会计改革的8个国家的经验,探究改革对政府债务规模的影响,结果表明,引入权责发生制的政府会计制度会显著提升政府债务规模,有助于披露隐性债务,防范债务风险,对我国未来如何借助政府会计改革促进政府债务核算和披露有一定的指导和借鉴作用。     

地方政府行为与城市商业银行风险承担

纯市场环境下商业银行的风险承担是其在盈利与风险控制之间进行平衡的行为。但中国城市商业银行由政策主导建立,地方政府会对其经营决策进行直接干预。此外,城市商业银行大多为本地经营,地方政府的城市治理行为也会对其风险控制造成影响。在政府控制和治理行为框架下研究政府行为是否对城市商业银行风险承担产生负面影响,对于城市商业银行在新常态下实现可持续发展具有一定的现实意义。 基于对相关理论的梳理,将城市商业银行的风险细化为信贷风险、贷款投放、流动性风险和偿付风险4类,以分析政府行为对其的影响。考虑到4种风险存在着一定的内生相关性,采用似不相关回归方法建立方程组进行估计。以2007年至2013年中国45家城市商业银行数据为样本,实证分析地方政府行为对城市商业银行风险承担的影响。 研究结果表明,地方政府行为对于城市商业银行的风险承担既有正面也有负面的影响。政府持股比例与城市商业银行信贷风险没有显著的关系,但对其流动性风险和偿付风险有负向的影响;政府赤字率与城市商业银行的贷款投放正相关,而政府加大教育和科技投入的治理能有效降低城市商业银行的信贷风险和贷款投放;地方主政官员换届与城市商业银行的贷款投放负相关。进一步的研究发现,区域中心城市地方政府控股对城市商业银行贷款投放风险管理有正向的影响,而城市商业银行跨区域经营的行为也能够增强自身承担风险的能力。     

编制总量的核定方法与模型──地方政府机关编制

确定政府机构人员编制总量是一个十分重要而又难度很大的决策课题。对于地方政府机关编制,本文提出一种核定编制总量的方法,并采用数据包络分析方法和神经网络技术建立了编制总量的核定模型。     

地方政府机构改革有难点与对策

当前,地方政府机构改革即将全面铺开,如何有效、平稳、快速地推进地方政府机构改革,是亟待解决的突出问题。一、当前地方政府机构改革的难点改革开放以来,我国地方政府进行了……     

Public Trust in Local Government: Explaining the Role of Good Governance Practices

Public Organization Review - The primary purpose of this study was to examine the role of good governance practices on public trust in local government. In this study, a conceptual model was...     

中国地方政府财政支出乘数再评估

民族地区转移支付制度的确立使得少数民族县人均财政支出显著增加。利用这一政策冲击,并借鉴模糊断点回归思路构造工具变量,本文基于约1600个县级单位1994~2007年的样本,评估了中国地方政府财政支出乘数。基准回归结果显示,中国财政支出乘数大于1,这表明各级政府扩张性的财政支出偏好有其合理性,财政支出效果总体上还是好的。进一步的异质性研究表明,发达与欠发达地区的财政支出乘数无显著差异,但衰退期的乘数高于繁荣期,这一结论不仅表明,我国财政资金配置均等化目标有合理性,也为实施跨期预算,构建繁荣期为衰退期财政支出融资的财政规则提供了支持。     

Comparative Human Health Impact Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials in the Framework of Life Cycle Assessment

For safe innovation, knowledge on potential human health impacts is essential. Ideally, these impacts are considered within a larger life‐cycle‐based context to support sustainable development of new applications and products. A methodological framework that accounts for human health impacts caused by inhalation of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in an indoor air environment has been previously developed. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) evaluate the feasibility of applying the CF framework for NP exposure in the workplace based on currently available data; and (ii) supplement any resulting knowledge gaps with methods and data from the li fe c ycle a pproach and human r isk a ssessment (LICARA) project to develop a modified case‐specific version of the framework that will enable near‐term inclusion of NP human health impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) using a case study involving nanoscale titanium dioxide (nanoTiO₂). The intent is to enhance typical LCA with elements of regulatory risk assessment, including its more detailed measure of uncertainty. The proof‐of‐principle demonstration of the framework highlighted the lack of available data for both the workplace emissions and human health effects of ENMs that is needed to calculate generalizable characterization factors using common human health impact assessment practices in LCA. The alternative approach of using intake fractions derived from workplace air concentration measurements and effect factors based on best‐available toxicity data supported the current case‐by‐case approach for assessing the human health life cycle impacts of ENMs. Ultimately, the proposed framework and calculations demonstrate the potential utility of integrating elements of risk assessment with LCA for ENMs once the data are available.     

A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment

The life cycle assessment (LCA) framework has established itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impact of products. Several works have established the need of integrating the LCA and risk analysis methodologies, due to the several common aspects. One of the ways to reach such integration is through guaranteeing that uncertainties in LCA modeling are carefully treated. It has been claimed that more attention should be paid to quantifying the uncertainties present in the various phases of LCA. Though the topic has been attracting increasing attention of practitioners and experts in LCA, there is still a lack of understanding and a limited use of the available statistical tools. In this work, we introduce a protocol to conduct global sensitivity analysis in LCA. The article focuses on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and particularly on the relevance of global techniques for the development of trustable impact assessment models. We use a novel characterization model developed for the quantification of the impacts of noise on humans as a test case. We show that global SA is fundamental to guarantee that the modeler has a complete understanding of: (i) the structure of the model and (ii) the importance of uncertain model inputs and the interaction among them.     

成本管理:地方政府走出困境的重要选择

不少县乡财政吃紧,拖欠人员工资,行政效率低下,干群关系紧张,各种矛盾突出,不同程度地陷入困境.分析其原因,除体制、经济等方面的因素外,人们往往忽视但却十分重要的因素是政府成本管理乏力.县乡政府要走出困境,必须重视政府成本管理问题.     

An Empirical Analysis of Strike Durations in Ghana from 1980 to 2004

Abstract. This paper provides a seminal analysis of strike activity for an African country in investigating the determinants of strike durations in Ghana over the period 1980–2004. The empirical approach uses a set of well‐known parametric accelerated failure time strike duration models. There is a broad consensus among the different empirical models about the role exerted on average strike duration by strike size, the rate of inflation, enterprise ownership, and political governance. However, evidence on the relationship between strike durations and business cycle activity in Ghana is less clear‐cut.     

Career and Non-Career Bridge Employment Intentions of Local Government Professionals

Public Organization Review - The purpose of this study was to explore possible predictors of career and non-career bridge employment intentions among local government employees. The effects of...     

经济转型与我国中央—地方关系制度变迁

我国中央—地方关系制度变迁与经济体制转型紧密联系 ,其路径体现为:由计划经济模式下的中央政府推进转向双轨制下地方政府推进 ,最终过渡到市场推进下的中央—地方关系制度变迁。我国中央—地方关系的死乱循环本质上是经济制度的不稳定状态在政府体制上的一种折射 ,因此应从战略角度出发构建完善的社会主义市场经济体制。只有完善的市场才能反馈供给并扩大中央—地方关系调整的社会资源总量 ,构筑国家能力提升的战略基础。     

地方政府部门间信息共享的影响因素间关系研究

本文在对我国地方政府部门间信息共享情况调查和对国内外相关研究的基础上,提出影响政府部门间信息共享的因素间相互关系的假设.采用宝鸡和西安实地问卷调查数据进行统计检验,得出:资源以及推动信息共享的动力是直接因素,且动力直接决定资源的丰富程度;政府部门对信息共享的特性认识以及部门间的信任关系是间接影响因素,且通过作用于动力间接影响政府间信息共享的水平.     

地方政府引导民企发展的误区

案例一:2004年,某市在发展民企时出台了两个大胆的做法:一是机关事业单位工作人员“在做好本职工作的前提下”,可采取参股入股、业余兼职、代理业务等多种形式,业余从事民营经济活动,但所从事的经济活动不得与职务有关,不得利用职权谋取私利;二是鼓励机关事业单位兴办经济实体,     

对政府在西部大开发中作用的思考

一个国家经济的发展如何人会区不平衡走向平衡,这既是一个经济问题,也是一个政治问题。世纪交替之际,我国将西部大开发提上了日程。从市场与政府在促进地区经济协调发展的理论出发,回顾了４０年来地区经济发展中政府与市场的作用变迁,最后指出政府在西部大开发中应当发挥的作用。     

地方政府债券发行额度的优化配置研究

地方政府债券"自发自还"模式虽然可以有效解决以往模式发行主体和偿债主体的不一致性,但高层级地方政府在分配债券资源时仍然面临着较大的信息不对称和道德风险。本文依据结构化模型及契约理论,从高层级地方政府的角度构建了地方政府债券发行额度的分配决策模型。在效益风险合理搭配的框架下,通过使用遗传算法对双重目标进行加权,分析了省级政府与地（市）级政府之间的债券优化配置方案。研究结果表明,基于经济社会效益最大化和政府债券违约概率最小化等多目标优化求解,可以实现政府债券资源分配的帕累托改进。这对于地方政府债务风险显性化和政府债券合理配置研究将大有裨益,从而有利于科学管控我国日益严峻的地方政府债务风险。     

Transparency and Accountability Practices of Local Government Units in the Philippines: a Measurement from the Ground

Public Organization Review - The organizational practices of government personnel are indispensable components of building public trust and confidence. The 56 department heads and 662 personnel...     

Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes: Impact of Individual Cell Variability on the Exposure Assessment Step

Recently, the lag phase research in predictive microbiology is focusing more on the individual cell variability, especially for pathogenic microorganisms that typically occur in very low contamination levels, like Listeria monocytogenes. In this study, the effect of this individual cell lag phase variability was introduced in an exposure assessment study for L. monocytogenes in a liver paté. A basic framework was designed to estimate the contamination level of paté at the time of consumption, taking into account the frequency of contamination and the initial contamination levels of paté at retail. Growth was calculated on paté units of 150 g, comparing an individual-based approach with a classical population-based approach. The two different protocols were compared using simulations. If only the individual cell lag variability was taken into account, important differences were observed in cell density at the time of consumption between the individual-based approach and the classical approach, especially at low inoculum levels, resulting in high variability when using the individual-based approach. Although, when all variable factors were taken into account, no significant differences were observed between the different approaches, allowing the conclusion that the individual cell lag phase variability was overruled by the global variability of the exposure assessment framework. Even in more extreme conditions like a low inoculum level or a low water activity, no differences were created in cell density at the time of consumption between the individual-based approach and the classical approach. This means that the individual cell lag phase variability of L. monocytogenes has important consequences when studying specific growth cases, especially when the applied inoculum levels are low, but when performing more general exposure assessment studies, the variability between the individual cell lag phases is too limited to have a major impact on the total exposure assessment.     

公司治理的政府介入结构分析

针对当前我国股份公司治理机制的现状,本文构造了一个相应的模型,应用博弈论方法证明,政府过度介入公司治理将严重影响公司运行效率,认为国有资产应当尽快退出产业部门,以此消除国有企业改革的产权障碍,并且指出这应是当前最为急迫的一项任务。     

The Immediate Impact of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Local Property Values

The Fukushima Daiichi accident released huge amounts of radioactive material over a wide area. We can appreciate the geographical extent of radioactive contamination from the information published online by the Japanese government. Historically, this is an unprecedented situation, which allows “natural experimentation” to estimate the causal effects of radioactive contamination on our society. This study focused on property value losses caused by the accident and analyzed changes in land appraisals around the Fukushima Daiichi plant from July 2010 to July 2011 within the framework of hedonic approach. Thus, we estimated the short‐run impact of the contamination or the change in marginal value of proximity to the plant. The results suggest that the appraisals significantly and monotonically depreciated with increasing contamination levels. However, there was no evidence to suggest changes in the marginal value of proximity to the plant. A comparison between the appraisals and transaction prices indicates that this result could be interpreted as an underestimate of actual property value losses.