Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural‐technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold‐up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.     

$s for Lives: Ethical Considerations in the Use of Cost/Benefit Analysis by For-Profit Firms

Cost/benefit analysis is often an imprecise tool because of assumptions that must be made about matters that are difficult to quantify. The problems become especially acute when lives or serious bodily injuries are at stake because of the serious nature of that which is being risked. Furthermore, the literature on cost/benefit analysis focuses on public decision-making situations and decisions by individuals. This paper examines the distinctiveness of the use of cost/benefit analysis involving putting dollar values on human life by for-profit firms. The argument developed in the paper is that the lack of participation by the affected party (or government representative) in balancing costs and benefits raises special ethical concerns. A formula that was developed by the Ford Motor Company concerning accidents involving fuel leakage and fire with resultant loss of life and serious burn injuries is used as an example of both the imprecision of the method and the distinctive factors of the decision process that raise special ethical considerations. The paper examines why the for-profit-decision is distinct, what the special ethical considerations are, and concludes with a discussion of several alternative procedures to monitor the use of cost/benefit analysis so that it would be an effective business tool while at the same time the individual is provided maximum protection.     

Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to the Mycotoxin Ochratoxin A in Food

This article presents the methodology and the simulation results concerning the quantitative assessment of exposure to the fungus toxin named Ochratoxin A (OA) in food, in humans in France. We show that is possible to provide reliable calculations of exposure to OA with the conjugate means of a nonparametric-type method of simulation, a parametric-type method of simulation, and the use of bootstrap confidence intervals. In the context of the Monte Carlo simulation, the nonparametric method takes into account the consumptions and the contaminations in the simulations only via the raw data whereas the parametric method depends on the random samplings from distribution functions fitted to consumption and contamination data. Our conclusions are based on eight types of food only. Nevertheless, they are meaningful due to the major importance of these foodstuffs in human nourishment in France. This methodology can be applied whatever the food contaminant (pesticides, other mycotoxins, Cadmium, etc.) when data are available.     

A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting PELs and TLVs for Carcinogens

For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.     

合法性视角下的国有企业组织制度变迁

国有企业的单位体制是中国传统体制中的独特组织制度,在资本主义市场经济社会以及其他社会主义再分配经济社会中,都不存在相似的组织制度.从制度学派的合法性视角来观察中国国有企业从单位体制到现代企业制度的变迁,或许可以给出这种独特性的解释.就组织与环境的互动来看,国有企业的单位体制和现代企业制度都受到制度环境的合法性机制制约,只是从一种合法性转变为另一种合法性.在中国传统文化情境下,这种合法性转变中有些传统文化因素仍然扎根于制度环境,是更为深层的合法性基础.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

A Semiparametric Approach to Risk Assessment for Quantitative Outcomes

Characterizing the dose-effect relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals of quantitative risk assessment. A semiparametric approach is proposed for risk assessment with continuously measured or quantitative outcomes which has advantages over existing methods by requiring fewer assumptions. The approach is based on pairwise ranking between the response values in the control group and those in the exposed groups. The work generalizes the rank-based Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, which for the two-group comparison is effectively a test of whether a response from the control group is different from (larger than) a response in an exposed group. We develop a regression framework that naturally extends this metric to model the dose effect in terms of a risk function. Parameters of the regression model can be estimated with standard software. However, inference requires an additional step to estimate the variance structure of the estimated parameters. An effective dose (ED) and associated lower confidence limit (LED) are easily calculated. The method is supported by a simulation study and is illustrated with a study on the effects of aconiazide. The method offers flexible modeling of the dose effect, and since it is rank-based, it is more resistant to outliers, nonconstant variance, and other departures from normality than previously described approaches.     

管理科学与工程热点研究领域的文献计量分析

以国外1994～2004年被SCI、SSCI收录的117种期刊、国内1994～2003年77种中文期刊、ISTP国际会议索引数据库2000～2004年会议收录中发表的管理科学与工程领域的论文作为基础数据源,利用文献计量分析方法分析了国内外管理科学与工程学科各领域发展的历史、现状以及未来的研究热点,并重点就国内外热点的形成原因以及热点内容的异同进行了深入研究.可以为我国管理科学与工程"十一·五"发展规划以及优先资助领域的遴选提供一定的参考依据.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment from Farm to Fork and Beyond: A Global Bayesian Approach Concerning Food-Borne Diseases

A novel approach to the quantitative assessment of food-borne risks is proposed. The basic idea is to use Bayesian techniques in two distinct steps: first by constructing a stochastic core model via a Bayesian network based on expert knowledge, and second, using the data available to improve this knowledge. Unlike the Monte Carlo simulation approach as commonly used in quantitative assessment of food-borne risks where data sets are used independently in each module, our consistent procedure incorporates information conveyed by data throughout the chain. It allows "back-calculation" in the food chain model, together with the use of data obtained "downstream" in the food chain. Moreover, the expert knowledge is introduced more simply and consistently than with classical statistical methods. Other advantages of this approach include the clear framework of an iterative learning process, considerable flexibility enabling the use of heterogeneous data, and a justified method to explore the effects of variability and uncertainty. As an illustration, we present an estimation of the probability of contracting a campylobacteriosis as a result of broiler contamination, from the standpoint of quantitative risk assessment. Although the model thus constructed is oversimplified, it clarifies the principles and properties of the method proposed, which demonstrates its ability to deal with quite complex situations and provides a useful basis for further discussions with different experts in the food chain.     

When Engagement Meets Politics: Analysis of a Brazilian Public Institution

Perception of organizational politics (POP) is usually associated with counterproductive factors. The reason for this stigma is that generally when employees perceive self-interest actions or backstage manoeuvres, they identify obstacles to their careers. On the other hand, the concept work engagement represents physical, cognitive and emotional factors from its dimensions (vigor, dedication and absorption) that can connect employees to their jobs. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the dimensions of work engagement and perceptions of organizational politics in a public institution. Data were collected from 847 employees of a public educational institution, followed by a hierarchical cluster analysis to characterize groups with high and low work engagement scores. Multiple linear regressions were performed for each cluster. It was found that in the low engagement group, the three constructs’ dimensions were negatively related to POP. In the high engagement group there was no negative relationship between those two concepts, but a positive association between dedication and perception of politics was found. The results show evidence that highly engaged civil servants do not identify politics as an obstacle to their career development. The study also suggests that POP level is high in public educational institutions.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Prion Risk Associated with Wastewater from Carcass‐Handling Facilities

Wastewater from facilities processing livestock that may harbor transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) infectivity is permitted under license for application to land where susceptible livestock may have access. Several previous risk assessments have investigated the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) associated with wastewater effluents; however, the risk of exposure to classical scrapie and atypical scrapie has not been assessed. With the prevalence of certain TSEs (BSE in cattle and classical scrapie in sheep) steadily in decline, and with considerable changes in the structure of carcass‐processing industries in Great Britain, a reappraisal of the TSE risk posed by wastewater is required. Our results indicate that the predicted number of new TSE infections arising from the spreading of wastewater on pasture over one year would be low, with a mean of one infection every 1,000 years for BSE in cattle (769, 555,556), and one infection every 30 years (16, 2,500), and 33 years (16, 3,333) for classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. It is assumed that the values and assumptions used in this risk assessment remain constant. For BSE in cattle the main contributors are abattoir and rendering effluent, contributing 35% and 22% of the total number of new BSE infections. For TSEs in sheep, effluent from small incinerators and rendering plants are the major contributors (on average 32% and 31% of the total number of new classical scrapie and atypical scrapie infections). This is a reflection of the volume of carcass material and Category 1 material flow through such facilities.     

实施债转股国有企业的一个量化选择标准

本文通过比较在一定置信水平下金融资产管理公司的利润率,给出了选择实施债转股国有企业的一个量化标准。     

Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment

This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time‐path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time‐path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience.     

Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal-fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.     

冗余资源与企业绩效关系的情境研究——兼谈冗余资源的数量变化

文献普遍认为冗余资源在企业经营状况良好时增加,经营状况不良时减少,事实真的如此吗？学者们在争论应该用何种理论解释冗余资源作用的同时,忽略了该资源本身也是企业行为的结果和管理的对象,以及企业情境会影响它与绩效之间的关系.本文认为冗余资源数量偏离预期时,企业会据此进行响应,而这种响应所造成的结果在经营状况不同的企业中会有所区别.本文选取我国上市公司作为样本进行分析,发现经营状况不良的企业,非沉淀性冗余资源显著减少,而沉淀性冗余资源却显著增加,冗余资源和企业绩效之间均存在正U型关系;经营状况良好的企业中,其非沉淀性冗余资源显著增加,而且冗余资源和企业绩效之间存在倒U型关系.     

语言差异与市场制度发展

市场制度差异是导致经济发展差异的深层次原因,究竟什么因素导致了区域间市场制度差异?本文为市场制度差异的产生提供了一个新解释:我们认为语言差异会显著影响区域间市场制度差异。利用中国省际数据,本文实证分析了语言差异对中国区域间市场制度差异的影响,结果表明语言差异对市场制度差异有显著正向影响,即语言差异越大的区域其市场制度差异也越大。我们将市场制度的不同维度根据主要的推动力量归纳成3类:政府主导型、企业主导型、个人主导型,语言差异对企业和个人主导的市场制度差异的作用更明显;并且相比于语言较统一的北方地区,语言差异对南北地区之间、南方地区内部市场制度差异的影响更大。本文进而检验了语言差异对市场制度差异影响的作用机制,结果表明语言差异除了会因为交流的障碍增加市场制度差异外,还会通过文化观念差异进而增加市场制度差异。本文最后给出了相关政策建议。     

制度转型环境下的中国企业家精神研究

转型经济的背景下,所有制结构与企业规模的差异必然导致企业发展轨迹的不同,这也为中国企业家精神的发展提供了多元化的实践平台。基于资源与能力视角的研究表明,大型非国有企业最利于企业家精神的发展,而大型国有企业则限制了企业家精神的发挥,小型企业则因所有制的差异对企业家精神的发展各有利弊。     

A Quantitative Estimate of Leukemia Mortality Associated with Occupational Exposure to Benzene3

In 1980, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated a revised occupational standard for benzene, stating that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had failed to demonstrate that significant health risks existed under the current standard. This decision has been interpreted by OSHA as requiring the consideration of quantitative risk assessments, whenever possible, in the development of regulations for occupational carcinogens. In light of this decision, the available epidemiologic evidence was used to generate a quantitative risk assessment for benzene. Uncertainties regarding the levels and lengths of benzene exposure for the studied cohorts were incorporated into the analysis. Based on the one-hit model, the assessment indicates that a working lifetime exposure to benzene at the current permissible exposure level (10 ppm) poses a substantial excess risk of death from leukemia. This report discusses the calculation of the risk estimates, the basis for relying on certain assumptions, and the inherent limitations of using epidemiologic studies to quantify cancer risks.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Amount of Prion Diverted to Category 1 Materials and Wastewater During Processing

In this article the development and parameterization of a quantitative assessment is described that estimates the amount of TSE infectivity that is present in a whole animal carcass (bovine spongiform encephalopathy [BSE] for cattle and classical/atypical scrapie for sheep and lambs) and the amounts that subsequently fall to the floor during processing at facilities that handle specified risk material (SRM). BSE in cattle was found to contain the most oral doses, with a mean of 9864 BO ID₅₀s (310, 38840) in a whole carcass compared to a mean of 1851 OO ID₅₀s (600, 4070) and 614 OO ID₅₀s (155, 1509) for a sheep infected with classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. Lambs contained the least infectivity with a mean of 251 OO ID₅₀s (83, 548) for classical scrapie and 1 OO ID₅₀s (0.2, 2) for atypical scrapie. The highest amounts of infectivity falling to the floor and entering the drains from slaughtering a whole carcass at SRM facilities were found to be from cattle infected with BSE at rendering and large incineration facilities with 7.4 BO ID₅₀s (0.1, 29), intermediate plants and small incinerators with a mean of 4.5 BO ID₅₀s (0.1, 18), and collection centers, 3.6 BO ID₅₀s (0.1, 14). The lowest amounts entering drains are from lambs infected with classical and atypical scrapie at intermediate plants and atypical scrapie at collection centers with a mean of 3 × 10^?7 OO ID₅₀s (2 × 10^?8, 1 × 10^?6) per carcass. The results of this model provide key inputs for the model in the companion paper published here.