论70至90年代中国生育变迁

论７０至９０年代中国生育变迁顾宝昌中国自７０年代以来的生育趋势已经受到人口学界内外的广泛关注，并已在众多国内外研究中得到广泛论证。本文企图对中国从７０年代到９０年代的生育经历作一个全面和系统的评估。它的重点并不在于描述中国生育在最近几十年中的变化，而...     

2000年普查所面临的人口环境与对策

世人瞩目的我国第五次人口普查即将在２０００年进行。处于世纪之交的这次人口普查对于了解９０年代以来处于社会经济转型期的我国人口、经济与社会的变化情况,研究并制定全国及各地区“十五”社会经济发展计划与长期规划,具有重大意义。建国后我们成功地进行了四次全国人口普查,为今后人口普查积累了丰富的经验。继承以往普查成功的经验,无疑是搞好２０００年人口普查的重要基础,但我们也应该看到：处于世纪之交的这次全国人口普查所面临的形势与以往相比,已发生了很大的变化,这就要求我们对这次人口普查在普查的时间与空间、普查登…     

全国人口统计数据失真原因与对策分析研讨会综述

全国人口统计数据失真原因与对策分析研讨会综述张风雨近几年，国家统计局和国家计划生育委员会组织的几次抽样调查表明，自９０年代以来，中国人口出生率和妇女生育水平逐年下降，尤以１９９１年和１９９２年下降幅度明显，国内外对此反响很大。为正确了解中国９０年代初...     

《中国计划生育工作纲要（1995─2000年）》

《中国计划生育工作纲要（１９９５─２０００年）》《中国计划生育工作纲要（１９９５─２０００年）》已经国务院批准颁布，本刊特全文刊载。国务院在批准该纲要的通知中指出，实行计划生育是我国的基本国策，也是一项长期、艰巨的战略任务。９０年代是我国改革开放和社...     

关于中国计划生育立法的讨论

背景中国人口与计划生育立法始于７０年代末,先后起草了多次。尽管从中央领导到各级干部和群众对立法必要性的认识已经一致,但是由于受当时国内外社会环境和条件的限制,特别是群众的生育愿望还十分强烈,国家的要求和群众的生育意愿还有比较大的距离。考虑到条件和时机的不成熟,有关人口与计划生育的法律最终未能出台。自９０年代以来,我国人口与计划生育的形势与８０年代比发生了相当大的变化。一方面是生育率出现明显的下降。１９９０年全国总和生育率为２．３１,根据历年国家统计局人口变动抽样调查结果推算,１９９２年总和生育率…     

九十年代以来我国人口迁移新特点探讨

本文以我国 １９９５年 １％人口抽样数据为基础,对比 １９９０年第四次人口普查数据,结合进入９０年代我国宏观经济格局发生的变化,探讨了９０年代以来我国人口迁移所出现的几个突出的新特点：规模收缩增速减缓,迁移流向的地域类型多元化和迁移宏观走向的离心化分散化。     

人口流动与城镇职工下岗问题的解决

一、问题的提出８０年代以来的农村经济体制改革和城镇的初步开放，吸引了数千万农村人口进入城镇务工经商，且流动人口的规模仍在不断扩大。９０年代以来随着城镇经济体制改革力度的加大和经济结构调整等原因，城镇中失业和下岗的人数剧增。一方面，数千万农民进城打工（...     

提高计划生育管理水平 促进中西部地区人口与社会经济的协调与可持续发展

进入９０年代以来特别是进入“九五”以来,我国人口控制和计划生育正面临着新的形势,经历着新的变,主要表现在：１从总体上看,自９０年代以来,人口出生率和自然增长率在持续稳定地下降,生育率已经降到较低的水平。我国从７０年代初期全面推行计划生育以来,人口出...     

20世纪50年代以来美国人口变化特征及其对中国的启示北大核心CSSCI

代表世界人口大国的中国和美国在2021年陆续发布2020年人口普查初步结果。最新人口普查数据显示:随着社会经济发展和民众人口观念的转变,两国在人口数量和结构特征层面呈现出一些共性特征。例如总和生育率低于替代水平与大规模老年群体叠加造成的结构性老龄化,区域发展不平衡与高度城市化共同带来的协调发展困境,整体劳动力市场萎缩与家庭内部经济支持的矛盾等。因此,基于国别人口学的研究视角,关注二战之后美国人口国情,研究美国人口各要素变化的特征及其趋势,为准确把握我国人口发展趋势、科学应对我国人口问题提供更加现实的研究依据和崭新的研究视角。本文基于20世纪50年代以来美国人口普查的相关数据,重点分析21世纪美国人口变化的新特征。一方面,从数量和结构两个维度出发,总结其在总量、年龄、性别、城乡、地区、族裔、劳动力、家庭等方面变迁的主要特征,并综合其人口动态变化与静态形势的发展特点,对未来美国人口变化的基本趋势做出一定预判。另一方面,参考美国应对相关人口问题的成功经验,提出我国可以通过引入海外人才,鼓励老年人再就业,政府和市场合作促进西部开发,发挥大都市区龙头作用,更好地应对我国目前面临或未来可能产生的人口问题。     

《中国人口通史》简评

由路遇、滕泽之合著的《中国人口通史》一书（山东人民出版社２０００年出版）重在考证人口数据，揭示历史人口发展规律，意在为解决中国人口问题提供历史借鉴。 一、该书着重于历代人口数量的考证，形成了一个代代相连的人口数据链，从而展示中国历史人口发展的趋势。特别是对秦朝以来一些重要时刻的人口数据，作了初步考证，提供了一个基本上能反映各个历史时期人口发展变化的数据系列，展示了中国人口发展历程中的四个高峰期。二、 该书通过对中国人口历史发展变化的研究，试图揭示人口发展的历史规律。在中国原始社会和奴隶社会，由于生…     

Population Trends in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America: Selective Deconcentration and the Rural Rebound

This study uses revised annual population estimates that incorporate adjustments from the 2000 Census to backcast demographic change for U.S. counties during the 1990s. These data are supplemented with new post-censal population estimates for 2001–2003. We use these data to examine demographic trends in the late 1990s and first years of the new century. Our findings are consistent with a model suggesting that a selective deconcentration of the U.S. population is underway. Our findings also confirm the occurrence of the rural rebound in the first half of the 1990s and a waning of this rebound in the late 1990s. Post-censal data also suggest a modest upturn in nonmetropolitan population growth rates in 2001–2003.     

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

从人口普查看美国200余年社会政治的变化

自 1790年到 2 0 0 0年 ,美国每隔十年就进行一次人口普查。本文根据美国人口普查的历史资料和 2 0 0 0年人口普查的最新资料 ,对 2 0 0余年来美国社会经济及政治的变化进行了分析。     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.     

Segregation and Fragmentation: Extending Landscape Ecology and Pattern Metrics Analysis to Spatial Demography

Though demography’s roots involve a strong spatial component, recent attention to capitalizing on widely available spatially referenced demographic data has returned the focus to spatially enabled analyses. Landscape ecology offers a theoretical framework and concomitant methodology in pattern metric analysis well suited for extracting process through the examination of spatial patterns. Applied on the environmental side of population–environment interaction research, pattern metric analysis has not been brought to bear on population data per se. This research illustrates the utility of a pattern metric approach utilizing U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000 to document changes in spatial configuration of race and class in South Carolina. The results corroborate similar findings elsewhere of exurban growth as well as an increasing income gap and spread of Hispanic population, both statistically and spatially. Further insight into the forces related to these processes is gained from explicit assessment of spatial configuration. The method is offered as a complementary tool to the richly evolving field of spatial demography.     

Metropolitan Influence and Land Use Competition in Potential Biomass Crop Production: A Spatial Demographic Analysis

Biomass is one alternative energy source that is currently being investigated to combat the growing U.S. dependence on foreign oil. In this study, we explore where traditional farming practices and metropolitan influence will compete for land use against farmland located in optimal biomass crop production zones. To date, no consideration of the impact of urbanization and human development has been taken into account. Here we make a take a seminal approach to examining this relationship given previous analyses. We use overlapping LISA statistics to identify significant clusters of counties facing competition for land use. To measure competition for land use in counties located within biomass zones circa 2000, we use population growth and housing data from Census Bureau estimates, farmland data from the Census of Agriculture, and remotely sensed land use/cover data from the United States Geological Survey. The implications of these factors and how they will potentially affect biomass crop production are discussed.     

Trends in Occupational Segregation by Gender 1970–2009: Adjusting for the Impact of Changes in the Occupational Coding System

In this article, we develop a gender-specific crosswalk based on dual-coded Current Population Survey data to bridge the change in the census occupational coding system that occurred in 2000 and use it to provide the first analysis of the trends in occupational segregation by sex for the 1970–2009 period based on a consistent set of occupational codes and data sources. We show that our gender-specific crosswalk more accurately captures the trends in occupational segregation that are masked using the aggregate crosswalk (based on combined male and female employment) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. Using the 2000 occupational codes, we find that segregation by sex declined substantially over the period but at a diminished pace over the decades, falling by only 1.1 percentage points (on a decadal basis) in the 2000s. A primary mechanism by which segregation was reduced was through the entry of new cohorts of women, presumably better prepared than their predecessors and/or encountering less labor market discrimination; during the 1970s and 1980s, however, occupational segregation also decreased within cohorts. Reductions in segregation were correlated with education, with the largest decrease among college graduates and very little change in segregation among high school dropouts.     

Alternative Projections of the U.S. population

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.     

The United States population by race and urban-rural residence 1790–1860: Reference tables

The U.S. population by race and urban-rural residence from 1790 to 1860 is presented. The definition of the urban population used is that population residing in incorporated places of 2,500 population or more. The rural population is the residual of the total population minus the urban population, as defined above. The tables provide previously unavailable data on the urban-rural distribution of the black and white populations 1790–1860 and are compatible with data for the total population published by the Census Bureau.     

Recent net alien immigration to the United States: Its impact on population growth and native fertility

Estimates of the size and structure of recent alien immigration to the United States are made. Substituting these revised estimates in the Series II projections of the U.S. Bureau of the Census implies a future U.S. population smaller than that implied by the Census Bureau’s estimates of immigration. The analysis of Coale (1972)—which calculates the decline in native-born fertility required to accommodate immigration and, at the same time, maintain a stationary population—is replicated, using both the Census Bureau’s estimates and the revised estimates reported here. The revised estimates indicate a smaller reduction in native fertility and a smaller ultimate size of the stationary population than are implied by the Census Bureau’s immigration estimates. The importance of age structure in all of these calculations is demonstrated.