人口流动对农村女性社会性别观的影响

本研究提出的基本逻辑假设是人口流动促进了农村女性社会性别观念从传统向现代的转变。主要从两个方面进行探究:一是流动对农村女性性别观念是否有影响;二是这种影响是否显著。将农村女性分为"流动"和"未流动"两组,并对社会性别观念问题结果数据做了交叉表分析和均值比较分析,结果显示,该假设成立。在此基础上,从经济因素、政治因素、文化因素和主观因素等方面进一步验证了人口流动对农村女性社会观念转变具有多维的作用。     

中国生育率下降经济后果的计量分析

本文在特定的假设条件下，构建一个动态人口一经济模型，从人口作为消费者影响资本积累、作为劳动者影响生产两方面入手，分析人口对经济运行的影响。并对在特定假设条件下的人口一经济系统进行模拟，以判断中国生育率下降和控制人口增长对中国经济增长和人民生活水平提高的贡献。     

基于logit模型的城市高学历人群长期居留倾向研究

我国城市政府普遍意识到高学历人群流入对于城市发展的重要意义,制定了一系列吸引人才的公共政策,但是对影响高学历人才长期居留因素认识不足,致使政策制定缺乏依据并且效果欠佳。国内外学者对于影响流动人口长期居留因素的研究较多,而从人口社会学特征视角,以流动人口中的高学历人才为研究对象的尚少。高学历流动人才作为流动人口的组成部分,其人口社会学特征,如文化程度、年龄、随迁家庭情况显著不同于其他群体,为此,在充分梳理相关文献的基础上,从人口社会学特征视角,采用调查问卷和直接访谈方式,使用离散选择模型中的Logit回归方法,对高学历人才长期居留影响因素(包括性别、年龄、学历、配偶户籍地和随迁家庭情况)进行了综合分析,以期加深对高学历人群长期居留影响因素的认识,为政府制定相关政策提供理论依据。     

基于logit模型的城市高学历人群长期居留倾向研究

我国城市政府普遍意识到高学历人群流入对于城市发展的重要意义,制定了一系列吸引人才的公共政策,但是对影响高学历人才长期居留因素认识不足,致使政策制定缺乏依据并且效果欠佳。国内外学者对于影响流动人口长期居留因素的研究较多,而从人口社会学特征视角,以流动人口中的高学历人才为研究对象的尚少。高学历流动人才作为流动人口的组成部分,其人口社会学特征,如文化程度、年龄、随迁家庭情况显著不同于其他群体,为此,在充分梳理相关文献的基础上,从人口社会学特征视角,采用调查问卷和直接访谈方式,使用离散选择模型中的Logit回归方法,对高学历人才长期居留影响因素(包括性别、年龄、学历、配偶户籍地和随迁家庭情况)进行了综合分析,以期加深对高学历人群长期居留影响因素的认识,为政府制定相关政策提供理论依据。     

试论人口社会学的研究对象和内容结构

社会为人口所构成,人口是社会的主体,人口的变化要受到社会环境的影响,社会的发展也要受到人口因素的制约。社会和人口本是不可分割的同一实体,而现代科学研究的深化却要求学科体系越来越趋于细致严密,这就使得社会学和人口学各自形成为独立的学科体系,而社会学自身又派生出多门分支学科,人口学也向多分支学科发展,人口社会学就是在这两门学科之间成长起来的一门边缘学科。关于它研究的对象,众说纷纭,各有所见,但可以概括为三个方面,即:人口变化与社会发展之间的关系,人口社会问题的各种表现形式与特性,正确处理人口社会问题的基本原则和对策。至于其研究的目的也可以归结为:从理论上探索影响人口变化和社会发展的各项因素的作用及其相互之间的数量关系,谋求两者协调之道,引导实践,以利于全体人口生活质量的提高和生活环境的改善,并促进整个社会的文明、繁荣和进步。     

隔代照顾的生物社会学动因及影响分析

当前社会环境下,儿童照顾给工作和家庭平衡带来压力和挑战。隔代照顾成为缓解这一压力的流行方式而得到了广泛的关注,学术界产生了许多研究成果。其中,生物社会学视角在国外隔代照顾研究中有较多的应用。但是在国内采用这一视角进行的实证研究非常少。本研究以中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2015年的数据为资料,通过生物社会学的视角并使用广义Logistic模型和广义线性模型对四类儿女双全的祖辈的隔代照顾的积极性进行分析。结果表明亲缘选择假设不能完全解释四类祖辈照顾孙辈的积极性的差异。虽然从整体上看女性祖辈比男性祖辈更积极地照顾孙辈,但是父系女性祖辈照顾孙辈的积极性并没有像亲缘选择假设所推断的那样显著低于母系女性祖辈。同时,分城乡的回归结果表明城镇地区四类祖辈的积极性没有显著差异,而在乡村地区父系女性祖辈的照顾强度显著高于其他三类祖辈。因此,亲缘选择理论可以解释照顾者性别差异的部分原因,而无法阐明父系和母系的宗族差异。此外,照顾者的工作状态、婚姻状态、受教育水平、子女的经济支持、子女的数量和子女的年龄都是影响隔代照顾积极性的显著因素。需要注意的是虽然生物社会学理论有其独特的价值,但是将它用于社会研究也有明显的局限性。因此,这一理论仍然有许多亟待探索和完善的空间。     

流动女性的婚姻质量及其影响因素

文章利用＂流动人口的婚姻家庭调查研究＂课题收集的数据,对流动女性的婚姻质量现状进行描述。在对中外关于流动人口和婚姻质量进行文献回顾的基础上,提出影响流动女性婚姻质量因素的假设,进而对实证资料进行回归分析,结果表明个人条件、流动经历、物质条件以及婚育状况等都是流动女性婚姻质量的影响因素。     

中国老年人社会养老服务利用的影响因素

社会养老服务供需失衡问题日益受到关注,以往学者大多从供给侧或界面障碍的角度进行研究,在此从需求侧角度关注社会养老服务利用的规律性.文章基于“生物人—经济人—社会人”的多元人性假设理论提出研究思路和假设,并使用2014年“中国老年社会追踪调查”(CLASS)数据,应用多元线性回归方法对1568位具有社会养老服务利用行为的老年人数据进行分析.研究发现:老年人的生理属性、经济属性和社会属性对其社会养老服务利用具有显著影响,社会养老服务利用呈现出“亲知识分子”、“亲中高收入群体”和“亲社会资本”的倾向;城乡老年人社会养老服务利用的影响因素存在显著差异,农村老年入主由其生理属性驱动,城市老年人则主由其经济属性和社会属性驱动.     

人口社会学的课题

人口社会学和都市社会学、家族社会学或宗教社会学相并列,它是不是作为社会学的一个独立部门来成立那是另一个问题,这里在于要懂得人口社会学的研究并有所理解。社会学之所以要研究人口,不仅由于人口已成为一个广泛的社会问题,还基于以下两方面的原因:一、为要理解人口问题的本质,需要研究人口社会学;二、为要完成社会学原来的课题也需要有人口研究并在研究结果上得出社会学理论。人口是个极为复杂的现象,它的动向一方面被规定于自然的生物的过程之中,同时又和经济的、社会的、文化的种种条件相缠绕,发生着变化。由于社会制度、社会意识、生活态度等关系着出生、死亡或迁移,并影响着它们的实际动向,     

始于育龄群众的人口计生宣教工作——传播学的角度

宣传教育工作历来为人口计生领域所重视,也是有效开展人口计生工作的重要手段。宣传教育的实质就是传播。传播作为一种社会控制的手段,其目的就在于要使受控者在态度、行为、情感等方面产生传播者所期望的某种控制效果。从传播社会学的角度来看,宣传教育就是发挥传播的社会动员功能,改变受众思想,影响受众行为,实现传播的社会控制目的。     

Assessment of neighborhood satisfaction by residents of three housing types

A highly influential but often underemphasized determinant of residential satisfaction is how residents perceive and feel about their neighborhoods. In this study, factors representing different aspects of residents' neighborhoods were identified and examined in relation to their overall assessment of their homes and neighborhoods. Relationships among neighborhood aspects and overall housing and neighborhood assessments were examined separately for residents of conventional homes, mobile homes, and apartments. Results based on all residents indicated that evaluations of neighborhood aspects were unrelated to housing satisfaction, but were moderately related to positive sentiments and satisfaction with the neighborhood. Separate analyses by housing type revealed that neighborhood perceptions of apartment residents were influential in affecting housing satisfaction. For all residents, the neighborhood's attractiveness and pleasant-friendliness were the most important determinants of neighborhood acceptance and satisfaction. The results also indicated that despite sharing similar determinant patterns of neighborhood acceptance with the other two housing type groups, the basis for mobile home residents' evaluations was considerably less related to the factors identified as influential. The findings indicated that different neighborhood factors formed the basis for differences in overall housing and neighborhood satisfaction among residents living in the three housing types. However, since the type of housing does not by itself define a neighborhood, the differences that were found need to be considered in the larger context of other components of a neighborhood like economic and community characteristics typically associated with a specific structure type.     

Small-area population forecasting in an urban setting: a spatial regression approach

This study revisits a spatial regression approach for small-area population forecasting that considers not only direct drivers of local area population growth but also neighbour growth and neighbour characteristics. Previous research suggested that the approach does not outperform extrapolation projections, the currently most-often-used small-area population forecasting technique. We argue the reason is that population growth is affected by its influential factors differently in urban, suburban, and rural areas. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial regression forecasting approach can perform better in one type of area at a time, where the influential factors’ effects on population growth can be estimated more accurately. This study is focused on census tracts of the city of Milwaukee, USA, to test the performance of the spatial regression approach in an urban setting. The analyses reveal mixed results and do not suggest that the spatial regression approach unambiguously outperforms extrapolation projections.     

Social Structure and Child Poverty

Child poverty, as a critical indicator of the QOL, is intricately related to the social structure of the community. This hypothesis is explored for the 159 counties of Georgia for the year 2000. The influence of demographic, economic, family and health factors upon child poverty are explored through models of total, black and white child poverty. Factor analyses of factors uncovered by the models identify the social-structural features of counties in relation to child poverty. Counties considered “Deprived/rural” harbor child poverty, while counties described as “Business/money” and “Progressive/urban” bear a negative relationship to child poverty. Positively associated with child poverty are residential stability, unemployment, low educational achievement, youth and age dependency, single-parent female household heads with children, grandparent child care, and health disability of child, elders and of working-age persons. Structural factors militating against child poverty are persons with greater education, higher population density, out migration, larger married population, higher retail sales, larger middle class families, higher weekly wages, and other structural features of the county.     

河流生态恢复意愿调查居民支付与否的经济学分析——基于上海城市河流2010年和2006年数据的比较

意愿价值评估法(CVM)应用于生态服务价值评估时,零支付意愿的处理直接影响结果的估计值。我国特有的社会结构和发展阶段使得零支付意愿的原因复杂化、特殊化。在2006年研究成果的基础上,应用CVM方法于2010年再次调查上海居民对城市内河生态恢复的支付意愿(WTP),问卷中增加了对居民家庭中工作人口数量、房屋产权情况、是否步行到达河边等因素的调查。采用Logit概率模型分析影响居民支付与否的主要影响因素。结果显示:非高等教育、非沪户籍、老年人、对水体环境不满意、距离河流较远等因素增加了居民不愿意支付的概率。与2006年调查相比较,户籍、教育等因素影响呈现一定稳定性。沿河居住时期、家庭中工作人口数等因素呈现不同影响。最后指出:我国经济转型阶段的社会结构、制度安排等造成CVM支付意愿和真实需求之间的偏离,应用CVM方法及结果时须考虑这一效应。     

The scientific revolution in demography

Since 1960 a debate has taken place between demographers and natural scientists over projections of world population into the future and the methods appropriate for making projections. Underlying this debate is a disagreement over the factors which influence human population growth. To the usual factors of fertility and mortality the natural scientists emphasize the human population's ability to communicate and thereby to enlarge available resources. Also at issue are different philosophies concerning the manipulation of data. The debate between demographers and natural scientists bears many of the features of a scientific revolution as described by Thomas Kuhn. The new theory also meets the criterion of scientific growth contained in the correspondence principle. The theories used by demographers and natural scientists have political implications, since the demographers assume stability whereas the natural scientists observe instability.     

The Significance of Demographic Triviality: Minority Status and Zodiacal Fertility Timing Among Chinese Malaysians

The hypothesis that minority status creates social tensions that affect fertility behaviour attracted much attention during the late 1960s and 1970s, but then disappeared after 1980. This sudden exit was due to a combination of methodological difficulties in distilling the independent effects of minority status from other socio-economic factors, weaknesses or ambiguities in the empirical record, and other difficulties. This paper examines a natural experiment that serendipitously by-passes more of these problems than has been heretofore possible – the attempt by Chinese in Malaysia to time births into the auspicious Year of the Dragon. A multivariate model shows that this unique fertility behaviour was more common in Malaysian districts with smaller proportions of Chinese, which suggests that minority status can directly affect ethnic identity. The results also highlight a paradoxical solution to a grander problem facing socio-demographic theory. Before we can posit that culture or values play an independent role in transitions to lower fertility, we should first trace a baseline definition of these values from the study of demographically trivial events.     

Deprivation,Social Exclusion and Subjective Well-Being

This paper aims at investigating empirically the relationship between self-declared satisfaction with life and an individual’s well-being as measured by the indices of deprivation and social exclusion proposed in the income distribution literature. Results on European countries show that life satisfaction decreases with an increase in deprivation and exclusion after controlling for individual’s income, relative income and other influential factors in a multivariate setting.     

新生代农民工住房状况影响因素分析：基于长沙市25个社区调查

运用长沙市25个社区994位新生代农民工的调查资料,采用因子分析方法获取住房状况总体评价系数作为因变量,通过路径分析法分析新生代农民工住房状况的影响因素。分析结果表明,当前新生代农民工住房状况总体较差,作为中间变量的社区环境和居住条件显著影响住房状况,社区环境因素是中间变量中影响力最大的因素。作为初始变量的收入状况、教育程度、婚姻状况、住房类型和工作行业不仅通过中间变量间接影响住房状况总体评价系数,而且对住房状况总体评价系数产生直接影响,作为初始变量的住房公积金对于新生代农民工的住房状况没有影响。最后建议强化社区公共服务制度的均等化,科学界定新生代农民工的住房保障对象标准,充分保障新生代农民工住房状况。     

老年人对社会照顾方式偏好的影响因素分析——以浙江省为例

本文利用浙江省老龄科学研究中心2004年4月对浙江省5个城市老年人养老意愿做的调查数据,对老年人对生活照顾方式的偏好做分析。采用多变量logistic模型分析个人特征、家庭状况、身体状况、经济状况四个因素对老年人照顾方式选择的影响作用。家庭状况对老年人照顾方式的选择最为显著,身体状况和经济状况也有比较显著的影响,但个人特征对老年人对照顾方式的选择没有明显的影响。在此基础上笔者对未来老年人的照顾方式作预测,发现非正式照顾的选择有所下降,正式照顾以及居家养老逐渐得到老年人的青睐。     

Dividedness,Institutions and Economic Performance: A Cross-National Analysis of Democratic Stability

Why divided societies face particular obstacles in maintaining democracy is one of the most challenging questions posed in the literature. Several studies posit that ethnically, religiously, and linguistically divided societies are incapable of establishing and holding a democratic system because of their social divisions and institutional weaknesses. We challenge this argument and examine whether political institutional arrangements (constraints over the executive, geographic distribution of political power, and form of government) in addition to economic performance are the crucial factors of success to establish and sustain a democratic regime and social unity in divided states. We use the Quality of Governance time-series standard dataset to test this hypothesis. By analyzing data on 163 states (1960–2012) we find that institutional constraints imposed over the executive and economic performance are the two primary influential factors in sustaining democratic regimes in multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic, and multi-religious societies.