Personal Efficacy, the Information Environment, and Attitudes Toward Global Warming and Climate Change in the United States

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces—informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy—are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.     

Measuring Expectations

To predict choice behavior, the standard practice of economists has been to infer decision processes from data on observed choices. When decision makers act with partial information, economists typically assume that persons form probabilistic expectations for unknown quantities and maximize expected utility. Observed choices may be consistent with many alternative specifications of preferences and expectations, so researchers commonly assume particular sorts of expectations. It would be better to measure expectations in the form called for by modern economic theory; that is, subjective probabilities. Data on expectations can be used to relax or validate assumptions about expectations. Since the early 1990's, economists have increasingly undertaken to elicit from survey respondents probabilistic expectations of significant personal events. This article discusses the history underlying the new literature, describes some of what has been learned thus far, and looks ahead towards making further progress.     

Sources of Bias in the Recall of Self‐Generated Data: The Role of Anchoring1

This study examines two issues. First, we assess the reliability of employment data self‐generated by respondents using a survey panel of 280 firms surveyed in 1999 and again in 2002. Our results show that there is a close correlation between self‐generated and archival secondary data. Second, we test for bias in the recall of previous years' employment levels and the sources of such bias. We assess three reasons for recall bias: respondent‐level factors; firm‐level factors; and anchoring. Our regression results indicate that: owners and new respondents; those in firms that changed legal status and/or location; those in smaller firms; and those in growing or declining firms were biased in their recall of prior employment. In addition, growing firms tended to underestimate their growth, which points to anchoring as an explanation for these biases. These biases imply that we have to be careful in delineating performance measures and cautious about how we interpret self‐generated managerial information.     

The Dynamic Nature of Risk Perceptions After a Fatal Transit Accident

In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users’ concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant.     

Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople

In 1992, a mental‐models‐based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well‐educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general “good environmental practices” and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.     

The Impact of Accident Attention,Ideology, and Environmentalism on American Attitudes Toward Nuclear Energy

This study involves the analysis of three waves of survey data about nuclear energy using a probability‐based online panel of respondents in the United States. Survey waves included an initial baseline survey conducted in early 2010, a follow‐up survey conducted in 2010 following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and an additional follow‐up conducted just after the 2011 Fukushima, Japan, nuclear accident. The central goal is to assess the degree to which changes in public views following an accident are contingent on individual attention and respondent predispositions. Such results would provide real‐world evidence of motivated reasoning. The primary analysis focuses on the impact of Fukushima and how the impact of individual attention to energy issues is moderated by both environmental views and political ideology over time. The analysis uses both mean comparisons and multivariate statistics to test key relationships. Additional variables common in the study of emerging technologies are included in the analysis, including demographics, risk and benefit perceptions, and views about the fairness of decisionmakers in both government and the private sector.     

Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses,Validity, and Respondents’ Evaluations

Subjective probabilities are central to risk assessment, decision making, and risk communication efforts. Surveys measuring probability judgments have traditionally used open‐ended response modes, asking participants to generate a response between 0% and 100%. A typical finding is the seemingly excessive use of 50%, perhaps as an expression of “I don't know.” In an online survey with a nationally representative sample of the Dutch population, we examined the effect of response modes on the use of 50% and other focal responses, predictive validity, and respondents’ survey evaluations. Respondents assessed the probability of dying, getting the flu, and experiencing other health‐related events. They were randomly assigned to a traditional open‐ended response mode, a visual linear scale ranging from 0% to 100%, or a version of that visual linear scale on which a magnifier emerged after clicking on it. We found that, compared to the open‐ended response mode, the visual linear and magnifier scale each reduced the use of 50%, 0%, and 100% responses, especially among respondents with low numeracy. Responses given with each response mode were valid, in terms of significant correlations with health behavior and outcomes. Where differences emerged, the visual scales seemed to have slightly better validity than the open‐ended response mode. Both high‐numerate and low‐numerate respondents’ evaluations of the surveys were highest for the visual linear scale. Our results have implications for subjective probability elicitation and survey design.     

Stem Cell Research, Regulatory Regimes, and Citizens’ “Calculus of Consent” in the European Union

What factors affect support for the development of human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research? Ordered logit analysis of responses to a 2005 Eurobarometer survey finds that Europeans with greater trust in the European Union and national hESC regulatory systems report significantly more support for hESC research. Higher levels of religiosity and concern for the moral status of the fetus reduce support for hESC research, while citizens more interested in politics, those getting their news from the print media, more highly educated respondents, and those reporting higher knowledge about stem cells tend to be more supportive of the technique. Nevertheless, the objectively more knowledgeable citizens exhibit less consistency in their support.     

Societal Responses to Familiar Versus Unfamiliar Risk: Comparisons of Influenza and SARS in Korea

This study examines the connections between familiar (influenza) and unfamiliar (SARS) risks among the general public in a SARS affected society. Using a survey of 350 respondents in Chonju, we find that risk perceptions and a belief that influenza vaccination reduces the incidence of SARS explain behavioral intentions for influenza vaccination and purchase responses to a hypothetical SARS vaccine. Those respondents who believe that an influenza vaccination will very likely reduce SARS incidence have a high probability (79%) of intending to vaccinate, but a much lower WTP for a SARS vaccine than those without such a belief. This belief undoubtedly was influenced by a reframing of influenza vaccination as preventing SARS. Such reframing may lead to short-term improvements in vaccination rates to the detriment of long-term SARS vaccination development. When compared with a similar study in Taiwan, societal risk perceptions of SARS and WTP for a vaccine vary greatly according to the extent of a society's experience with SARS.     

Flooding Risks: A Comparison of Lay People's Perceptions and Expert's Assessments in Switzerland

Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low-risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.     

The Effects of the Recession on Attitudes toward Business Ethics: An Inter‐temporal Study of Business Students in 2001, 2009, and 2010

This inter‐temporal study compares the ethical attitudes of business students at three points: in 2001, when the economy was relatively healthy; in 2009, near the beginning of the current recession; and in 2010, when the economy was worse. Ethical attitudes were measured by replicating a popular survey consisting of 25 ethically charged vignettes. The survey measures willingness to engage in white‐collar crime behaviors, some clearly illegal; others marginally unethical. Findings show an increase in tolerance for clearly illegal behaviors from 2001 to 2009 and an increase in tolerance for an even broader array of unethical acts from 2009 to 2010. As compared with 2001 respondents, 2009 respondents were more tolerant of seriously illegal behaviors but less tolerant of marginally unethical ones. In 2010, respondents were more accepting of both kinds of unethical behaviors. The results also suggest that the change in ethical attitudes from 2009 to 2010 was larger than the average annual change in ethics from 2001 to 2009. These findings are discussed within the framework of classical strain theory, Agnew's General Strain Theory, and the legitimacy of social institutions.     

Risk Perception by Offshore Oil Personnel During Bad Weather Conditions

This article presents the results of analyses of employee subjective risk assessments caused by platform movements on an offshore oil installation in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among 179 respondents covering three shifts on the platform. The data collection was carried out during the spring of 1994. A minority expressed worry due to platform movements. A greater proportion of the personnel stated worry about the construction of the platform. The personnel were more unsafe when they assessed their own safety attitudes with regard to specific potentially hazardous consequences of platform movements. Two approaches aimed at modeling worry and concern caused by platform movements were tested. The models were the mental imagery approach and the rationalistic approach. The rationalistic and mental imagery models fitted equally well. Implications of the results for risk communication are discussed.     

Vulnerability,Risk Perception,and Health Profile of Marginalized People Exposed to Multiple Built‐Environment Stressors in Worcester,Massachusetts: A Pilot Project

Millions of low‐income people of diverse ethnicities inhabit stressful old urban industrial neighborhoods. Yet we know little about the health impacts of built‐environment stressors and risk perceptions in such settings; we lack even basic health profiles. Difficult access is one reason (it took us 30 months to survey 80 households); the lack of multifaceted survey tools is another. We designed and implemented a pilot vulnerability assessment tool in Worcester, Massachusetts. We answer: (1) How can we assess vulnerability to multiple stressors? (2) What is the nature of complex vulnerability—including risk perceptions and health profiles? (3) How can findings be used by our wider community, and what lessons did we learn? (4) What implications arise for science and policy? We sought a holistic picture of neighborhood life. A reasonably representative sample of 80 respondents captured data for 254 people about: demographics, community concerns and resources, time‐activity patterns, health information, risk/stress perceptions, and resources/capacities for coping. Our key findings derive partly from the survey data and partly from our experience in obtaining those data. Data strongly suggest complex vulnerability dominated by psychosocial stress. Unexpected significant gender and ethnic disease disparities emerged: notably, females have twice the disease burden of males, and white females twice the burden of females of color (p < 0.01). Self‐reported depression differentiated by gender and age is illustrative. Community based participatory research (CBPR) approaches require active engagement with marginalized populations, including representatives as funded partners. Complex vulnerability necessitates holistic, participatory approaches to improve scientific understanding and societal responses.     

Elicitation of Quantitative Data from a Heterogeneous Expert Panel: Formal Process and Application in Animal Health

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.     

An Evaluation of Stimulus Preference Assessment Methodology in Organizational Behavior Management

The organizational behavior management literature has yielded few stimulus preference assessment methodologies for use with employees. The current investigation compared three preference assessments (ranking, survey, and multiple stimulus without replacement procedures) found in the organizational behavior management literature for their ability to predict reinforcers for direct care staff members’ behavior. In the first experiment all assessments were effective for predicting reinforcers, but the results were limited by a lack of control items in the assessment. In the second experiment the survey and ranking assessments both proved to be effective for identifying reinforcers and neutral or ineffective stimuli. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

Using Single Respondents in Strategy Research

A survey of empirical papers has revealed a number of studies that have used single respondents, usually the CEO or a top management team member, to make inferences about certain strategic dimensions of their business. In this note, we highlight some of the problems in using this approach. We base our comments on a study of 76 businesses where multiple respondents were accessed. We conclude that, because of often wide variations in responses between members of the same top team (measured by Cronbach alpha), the use of single respondents in this type of strategy research is probably unreliable.     

How Children Spend Their Time: A Sample Survey for Use in Exposure and Risk Assessments

Children are becoming an increasingly important focus for exposure and risk assessments because they are more sensitive than adults to environmental contaminants. A necessary step in measuring the extent of children's exposure and in calculating risk assessments is to document how and where children spend their time. This 1990-1991 survey of 1000 households was designed for this purpose, targeting children between 5 and 12 years of age, in six states in varied geographic regions. The behavior of children was sampled on both weekdays and weekends over all four seasons of the year using a retrospective time diary to allocate time to activities during the previous 24 h. Information was obtained on the kinds and locations of activities, the nature of the microenvironments of the locations, and the time spent in the different environments. Measures of variability in addition to mean hours per day are reported. Results of this study closely match those of earlier research on California children's activities done by the California Air Resources Board. One important finding of the survey was that 5- to 12-year-old children in all geographic regions spend most of their time indoors at home, indicating that risk assessments should focus on indoor, on-site hazards.     

Management consultancy’s role in delivering lasting [triple bottom line] benefits

Abstract

Management consultants have become ubiquitous in helping improve organizational performance. This paper presents an investigation of the impact of their interventions on organizational sustainability and growth through the performance improvement work carried out for and with their clients. The paper presents the findings of a questionnaire survey of 440 respondents from 206 countries; 197 of respondents were Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) and 243 from large organizations. There is a particular focus on knowledge transfer in terms of urgency and impact of the work with regard to the extent to which consulting interventions in SMEs, as well as large multinational corporations, embed long-term sustainability practices.     

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents’ perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.     

Perceived Risk and Uncertainty of Nuclear Waste: Differences Among Science,Business, and Environmental Group Members1

This paper presents survey results on perceived risk regarding the management of nuclear waste. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we examine differences between the groups in their expressed perceptions of risk and also their assessments of the certainty of their beliefs. We consider whether (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks and (b) whether there is greater responsiveness to new information for those whose beliefs are least certain. We find that there are connections between perceived risk and uncertainty, and there is a greater tendency to update risk assessements from a position of greater initial uncertainty. There are, however, differences between the groups as well as asymmetries in their responses to new information. The latter suggests that perceived risks will ratchet upward over time even when information is not biased toward more or less risk.