Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter?

Population projections are judged primarily by their accuracy. The most commonly used measure for the precision component of accuracy is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Recently, the MAPE has been criticized for overstating forecast error and other error measures have been proposed. This study compares the MAPE with two alternative measures of forecast error, the Median APE and an M-estimator. In addition, the paper also investigates forecast bias. The analysis extends previous studies of forecast error by examining a wide range of trend extrapolation techniques using a dataset that spans a century for a large sample of counties in the US. The main objective is to determine whether the choice of summary measure of error makes a difference from a practitioner’s standpoint. The paper finds that the MAPE indeed produces error values that exceed the robust measures. However, except for situations where extreme outliers rendered the MAPE meaningless, and which are rare in real world applications, there was not a single instance where using an alternative summary measure of error would have led to a fundamentally different evaluation of the projections. Moreover, where differences existed, it was not always clear that the values and patterns provided by the robust measures were necessarily more correct than those obtained with the MAPE. While research into refinements and alternatives to the MAPE and mean algebraic percent error are worthwhile, consideration of additional evaluation procedures that go beyond a single criterion might provide more benefits to producers and users of population forecasts.

An analysis of factors affecting attitudes toward same-sex marriage: do the media matter?

Using a survey of more than 5,000 American consumers, this study examines connections between attitudes toward same-sex marriage and media consumption. A positive attitude is predicted by being liberal and less religious, supporting gender and racial equality, willing to try anything once, considering television the primary form of entertainment, watching political talk shows, and reading blogs. The theoretical and methodological contributions and real-world implications of these findings are discussed.     

Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.     

Economic status proxies in studies of fertility in developing countries: Does the measure matter?

This paper investigates the consequences of using different economic status proxies on the estimated impact of economic status and other determinants of fertility. Using micro survey data from Ghana and Peru, we find that the proxies for income that best predict fertility are a principal components score of the ownership of consumer durable goods and a simple sum of ownership of these durable goods. Furthermore, the choice of the proxy generally has a minor influence on the predicted effects of the control variables. We compare the results from using a restricted set of proxies, such as those available in the Demographic and Health Surveys, with the results obtained using a lengthier set of proxies. Our results suggest implications beyond fertility analyses by providing researchers with an awareness of the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of economic status. Our results also suggest practical recommendations for the collection of survey data.     

Moving up the energy ladder: does socio-religious status matter?

This paper investigates the role played by socio-religious categories in determining primary cooking fuel choices among Indian households. We study this role in the broader context of climbing up the energy ladder. Our estimates based on a sample of 601,509 households and using multinomial probit regression suggest that socio-religious status along with economic status is critical in the choice of modern eco-friendly fuels. We find that belonging to a marginalized community in Hindu religion significantly dampens a households’ likelihood to move up the ladder when compared with upper caste households. While intra-religion differences among Hindu castes in terms of their probability of using modern fuels are wider, differences among Muslims appear smaller. Also, though Muslims perform worse than Hindu upper castes in terms of probability of using modern fuels they are much better off in comparison with other Hindu castes. Our results remain robust to alternative specifications and several robustness checks.

     

How does the stork delegate work? Childbearing and the gender division of paid and unpaid labour

I estimate the relationship between fertility and the allocation of paid and unpaid labour among couples, accounting for the potentially endogenous nature of fertility with two instruments. Additional children lead to a reduction in paid hours and to an even larger increase in unpaid hours among mothers. An increase in fertility also leads to a decline in the proportion of mothers working and of mothers working full-time in paid employment. In contrast, additional children are not related to paternal paid hours, although there is evidence of a small increase in unpaid hours spent on childcare.     

On Well-Being and Public Policy: Are We Capable of Questioning the Hegemony of Happiness?

Measuring the well-being of citizens has become established practice in many advanced democracies. In the move to go beyond GDP, indicators of subjective well-being (SWB) have come to the fore, and are increasingly seen as providing a ‘yardstick’ to guide public policy. A strong version of this position is that SWB can (and should) provide the sole basis on which to design and evaluate public policy. This article argues that the increasing dominance of the subjective definition of well-being is problematic, and amounts to a hegemony of happiness. The article examines the fundamental assumptions behind different accounts of well-being, and develops a critique of the ‘strong position’ that sees SWB as the ultimate guide for public policy. First, the connections between the modern debate and classical schools of thought are discussed, and the strong Benthamite SWB approach is contrasted with the alternative Aristotelian capabilities approach. Next, the article examines current practice, using the UK’s Measuring National Well-being Programme as a case study. Finally, the article concludes that SWB has questionable legitimacy as a summary indicator of objective quality of life, and does not, on its own, provide a reliable metric for public policy. The capabilities approach, which takes a pluralist perspective on well-being and prioritises freedom and opportunity, offers a richer and more useful foundation for policy.     

Why Get Involved? Exploring Gay and Bisexual Men's Experience of the Gay Community

Involvement in a gay community is a necessary step in the formation of a positive gay identity. However, how gay individuals think of a gay community and how they participate in these communities remains largely unexplored from a psychological perspective. The current study used an online survey containing several open-ended response items asking participants how they define the gay community, their first experience with it, and the advantages and disadvantages resulting from their involvement. The responses of a nationwide sample of 129 gay and bisexual men were coded in accordance with grounded theory. The results revealed substantial diversity in the perceptions and experiences of the gay community. Implications regarding these findings are discussed.     

Dingo media? The persistence of the “trial by media” frame in popular,media, and academic evaluations of the Azaria Chamberlain case

In the bulk of popular, media, and scholarly discourse on Azaria Chamberlain’s disappearance there is overwhelming consensus that the sensationalist reporting of the event convicted parents Michael and Lindy of their daughter’s murder outside official court processes. In feminist scholarship in particular, the infant’s disappearance in August 1980 has been read according to a “trial by media” frame. This frame persists despite altered perspectives about the role of the Australian public whose punitive and collectively hostile response to a media-driven hysteria has been replaced with the portrait of a kinder and more compassionate nation. The objectives of this article are threefold: to demonstrate the persistence of the trial by media frame in popular, media, and academic discourse; to consider assumptions of a monolithic and hostile media; and by examining a previously unanalysed archive to suggest that these arguments overlook the existence of sympathetic voices in mainstream media as well as the dialogic connection between media and counter-publics mutually supporting the Chamberlains’ bid for innocence. This research offers an alternative view to scholarship on a landmark event in Australian history and has broader implications for the way we view the media in trial by media situations.     

Heteronegativism? The attitudes of gay men and lesbians toward heterosexuals

Although many studies have been conducted on homophobia, little information exists about the attitudes of homosexuals toward heterosexuals. In order to compare the attitudes of both groups, a well-known homophobia questionnaire (Hudson & Ricketts, 1980) was reworded to assess the attitudes of homosexuals toward heterosexuals, forming a "heterophobia" questionnaire. The less clinical term "heteronegativism" is introduced here to refer to the range of negative feelings that gay individuals could possess regarding heterosexuals. Sixty homosexual students were matched with 60 heterosexual psychology students on sex, age, race, and education. Each group was given its respective "phobia" questionnaire. Hypotheses that homosexual participants would report less phobia and more negative experience than heterosexuals and that gay women would report more phobia than gay men were supported. Hypotheses that level of abuse in closeted homosexuals would be positively correlated with phobia scores and that being "out of the closet" would be negatively correlated with phobia scores were not supported.     

Why is the History of Heterosexuality Essential? Beliefs About the History of Sexuality and Their Relationship to Sexual Prejudice

Heterosexual people with more positive attitudes to lesbians and gay men generally believe that homosexuality is immutable, is not a discrete social category, and that homosexuality exists in all cultures and time periods. Equivalent beliefs about heterosexuality and beliefs about components of sexuality have been less often researched. 136 people with diverse sexualities described heterosexuality as more universal across history and culture than homosexuality (Study 1). 69 heterosexual-identified participants similarly believed that love, identity, behavior, and desire were more historically invariant aspects of heterosexuality than of homosexuality (Study 2). Less prejudiced participants thought all components of homosexuality—except for identity—were more historically invariant. Teasing apart beliefs about the history of components of heterosexuality and homosexuality suggests that there is no “essential” relationship between sexual prejudice and the tension between essentialist and constructivist views about the history of sexual identity.     

‘When and where does being Welsh matter to me?’ The influence of cross-border mobilities on constructions of sub-national belonging in the lives of Welsh Muslims*

This article will discuss how Welsh Muslims construct what a sense of place means to them through their cross-border mobility between England and Wales, and how this contributes to the ongoing re-construction of a plural understanding of nationhood in an era of diversity. To understand when and where being Welsh matters to Welsh Muslims, it will explore how mobility rather than being the antithesis of belonging, can be used as an essential tool in highlighting how perceptions of the nation, sub-state nation, home and place are influenced and understood.     

Why do I dread looking old?: A test of social identity theory,terror management theory,and the double standard of aging

ABSTRACT

Outward appearance is one of the means by which age is determined, and fear of looking old may stem from fears about social identity and death. This study explored how social identity theory and terror management theory may help to explain the dread of looking old. University students from the United States, England, and Australia (N = 1,042) completed a questionnaire regarding their attitudes about aging and older adults. Results indicated that sex, age, beliefs about personal aging, and death anxiety explained 30.4% of the variance for participants’ dread of looking old. Theoretical hypotheses were supported by our findings.     

What are the facilitators,inhibitors, and implications of birth positioning? A review of the literature

BackgroundFrom the historical literature it is apparent that birthing in an upright position was once common practice while today it appears that the majority of women within Western cultures give birth in a semi-recumbent position.AimTo undertake a review of the literature reporting the impact of birth positions on maternal and perinatal wellbeing, and the factors that facilitate or inhibit women adopting various birth positions throughout the first and second stages of labour.MethodsA search strategy was designed to identify the relevant literature, and the following databases were searched: CINAHL, CIAP, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Medline, Biomed Central, OVID and Google Scholar. The search was limited to the last 15 years as current literature was sought. Over 40 papers were identified as relevant and included in this literature review.ResultsThe literature reports both the physical and psychological benefits for women when they are able to adopt physiological positions in labour, and birth in an upright position of their choice. Women who utilise upright positions during labour, have a shorter duration of the first and second stage of labour, experience less intervention, and report less severe pain and increased satisfaction with their childbirth experience than women in a semi recumbent or supine/lithotomy position. Increased blood loss during third stage is the only disadvantage identified but this may be due to increased perineal oedema associated with upright positions. There is a lack of research into factors and/or practices within the current health system that facilitate or inhibit women to adopt various positions during labour and birth. Upright birth positioning appears to occur more often within certain models of care, and birth settings, compared to others. The preferences for positions, and the philosophies of health professionals, are also reported to impact upon the position that women adopt during birth.ConclusionUnderstanding the facilitators and inhibitors of physiological birth positioning, the impact of birth settings and how midwives and women perceive physiological birth positions, and how beliefs are translated into practice needs to be researched.     

Why does the need for medication become a barrier to breastfeeding? A narrative review

Problem

The need for medication during lactation can contribute to the early cessation of breastfeeding.

Answers to Reporter＇s Questions by Wang Peian,Vice Minister of National Health and Family Planning Commission,Regarding Adherance to the Basic National Policy of Family Planning and Start-up of the Policy of Two Children for One Only-child Spouse

The Decision of the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth CPC Central Committee proposed to start up a policy that allows couples with one spotlse being an only-child to have two children （hereinafter referred to as ＂the policy of two children for one only-child spouse＂）. The policy has received wide attention from the society. Why does the government choose to start up the policy at this stage？