犯罪农民工的人口学特征及其分析——以天津为例

农民工犯罪呈现不断增长的趋势,其犯罪农民工的性别结构严重失衡,犯罪年龄与文化程度低于城市居民的犯罪人口。犯罪农民工的经济生活水平处于较低的状态。     

战后德国的男性人口短缺——规模、结构及其影响因素分析

本文对战后德国男性人口短缺的规模、结构及其影响因素进行了认真的分析.研究表明战后德国男性人口短缺非常严重,但随着时间的推移,男性短缺矛盾逐年趋于缓和.究其原因,性别结构因素在其中扮演了绝对重要的角色,但其影响逐年减弱,年龄结构因素的影响有限,而人口规律因素的影响则有所增强.     

我国人口性比例失调的现状、成因及对策

<正> 在我国,任何人都不可能同时成为两个或两个以上异性的配偶。因而达到一定年龄的待婚配和已婚配的男女两性的总人口之间在数量上必然大体保持1:1的比例关系。无论是待婚配和已婚配的男性人口总量,多于待婚配和已婚配的女性人口总量,还是待婚配和已婚配的女性人口总量多于待婚配和已婚配的男性人口总量,都会造成一部分人口无法找到配偶的社会问题。从婚配的角度上看,待婚配和已婚配的两性人口之间应该保持     

性别结构指数的构造及应用

一、问题的提出常用的人口性别结构状况分析指标较多，如性别比、性别差异百分比等。它们都从一个侧面反映了人口性别结构状况，但仅就这些指标数值的大小是较难对某一人口性别结构的正常与否作出准确的判断的。这里缺少一个能综合反映人口性别结构合理程度的指标。此外，人们对人口性别结构正常与否的一些观点与看法（如总人口性别比的正常波动范围为95－102等），现在看来有许多地方值得进一步商榷。针对上述种种情况，本文建立了人口性别结构指数的概念与性别比正常波动范围的估算方法，以此来测量人口性别结构的合理程序，提出了人口性…     

人口性别年龄结构分析方法及其在德国的应用

本文对人口性别年龄结构的合理性、评判标准及其参照人口的选取等理论问题进行了较深入的讨论 ,提出了性别比正常波动范围的估算方法 ,构造了度量人口的性别、年龄及其两者合理程度的指标 ,建立了人口性别年龄结构类型的划分标准 ,并将这些结果应用于对德国人口性别年龄结构历史演变过程的分析之中。分析表明 :德国人口至今仍保留有受战争创伤的痕迹 ,男性人口短缺是战后德国在人口性别结构上所表现出的一个突出特点 ,但随着时间的推移 ,德国人口性别结构不断趋于改善。受战后婴儿热与 60年代中期以来出生率的急剧下降的影响 ,德国人口年龄结构趋于恶化     

积极生育政策对我国男性婚姻挤压影响的趋势分析

在性别失衡与人口老龄化的双重影响下,我国男性婚姻挤压不断加剧。文章基于第七次全国人口普查数据,运用单区域离散型未婚人口发展方程,充分考虑积极生育政策对出生人口性别结构和年龄结构的不同影响,设置不同的方案预测2021-2100年全国未婚人口年龄性别结构数据,利用未婚男性过剩规模、潜在初婚比、男性终身未婚规模和比例测度我国未婚男性婚姻挤压及其后果的变动趋势,得到如下结论：第一,2020-2100年婚龄未婚男性婚姻挤压先加剧后减缓,婚龄未婚男性过剩规模将在2040年左右达到峰值4 913万人。潜在初婚比将在2052年左右达到峰值183.9。第二,1970-2050年出生队列男性终身未婚规模和比例呈现先上升后下降的变动趋势,2020年左右出生队列达到峰值,“10后”男性将面临最为严重的男性婚姻挤压。第三,积极生育政策有利于从性别结构和年龄结构两个方面缓解未来男性婚姻挤压。出生性别比越快恢复到正常水平则未来男性婚姻挤压程度越低;总和生育率越高则未来男性婚姻挤压程度越低。第四,我国男性婚姻挤压以往被高估。根据最新的第七次全国普查数据,采用逆存活法测算发现将近一半的“失踪”女性被找回。     

性别失衡下的人口健康与公共安全:国际视野与历史经验

在经济社会转型之际,中国因出生性别比和女婴死亡水平的持续偏高而即将面临严峻的性别结构失衡问题。大规模的男性过剩人口将对人口健康特别是公共健康与安全造成什么样的风险成为政府成功应对挑战的关注点。在目前尚缺乏直接证据的前提下,基于国际的视野和历史经验,从个体人口健康、公共健康与安全两个层次,对不同时期和文化环境下有关性别失衡与健康风险的研究进行系统的综述,识别出男性过剩的人口环境将引发的健康风险的类型和危害程度,在比较分析的基础上,提出应对中国性别失衡背景下健康风险的政策建议,讨论未来该领域的研究方向。     

北京市“两带”人口发展与布局研究

一、北京市两带人口结构及发展形势1.两带①户籍人口、年龄性别结构根据2009《北京区域统计年鉴》数据,2008年北京市东部发展带户籍人口232.8万人,西     

夫妻年龄差的变化与人们的婚姻观

男性和女性由于各方面的条件不同,自古以来他们的婚配年龄也有所不同。根据1％人口抽样调查共八万多对夫妇的有关数据显示,我省夫妇年龄差别情况有如下特点: 一、丈夫年龄平均比妻子大3.47岁根据1％人口抽样调查,我省夫妇年龄差是3.47岁。丈夫年龄比妻子大,在我国是一种较为普遍的现象,这是由于男女人口的     

旅游人口的人口特征与旅游业的发展

一、我国旅游人口特征概述 从人口学的角度来讲应对旅游人口作如下特征的描述:旅游人口的性别结构、旅游人口的年龄结构、旅游人口的职业结构、旅游人口的国别(地区别)结构,不同年龄、性别旅游人口的家庭生命周期阶段等。我国旅游业的发展有着自己特殊的背景和特点,概言之如下:性别比偏高;年龄构成偏大;职业构成中以白领     

The harmonic mean as the basis of a realistic two-sex marriage model

The “two-sex problem” is one of attempting to preserve the essential character of male and female rates of marriage (or birth), since the expression of those rates is influenced both by the age-sex composition of the population and the underlying age-sex schedule of preferences. The present paper focuses on marriage and advances a theoretically based, realistic, and conceptually simple solution. In the continuous case, where exact male and female ages are used, equation (11) provides a mathematical relationship which equates the sum of the male and female marriage propensities of the observed population with that of the model. When discrete age intervals are used, the two-sex consistency condition is given by equation (14) which equates observed and model population rates calculated using the harmonic means of the number of persons in the relevant male and female age groups. The harmonic mean consistency condition is shown to be fully sensitive to the competitive nature of the “marriage market.” When compared with alternative approaches to the two-sex problem in the context of data for Sweden, 1961–64, the simple harmonic mean method yields results fairly similar to those of the other methods. None of the two-sex methods do particularly well at predicting the actual distribution of marriages, however. The likely reason is that the underlying marriage preferences changed, a circumstance which emphasizes the importance of carefully conceptualizing how observed behavior can be decomposed into the effects produced by age-sex composition and those produced by the underlying preferences.     

人口现代化对人口结构的影响分析

利用合理人口性别年龄结构理论,对中国与德国的人口性别年龄结构历史演变过程进行考察与分析。结果表明:在人口现代化进程中德国人口的性别与年龄结构分别趋于合理与恶化,而中国的情况则完全相反,从而明确指出人口现代化具有正负两方面的社会功能。     

A two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table

The “problem of the sexes” has been one of trying to reconcile inconsistent male and female demographic rates. The present paper deals with that question in the context of a two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table. A “rectangular” population, with equal numbers of persons in each age-sex group, is introduced as a standard, and a standardization relationship expressed in equation (9) relates changes in rectangular population rates to changes in age-sex composition. The standardization relationship is shown to satisfy a number of desirable properties and produce a realistic two-sex model. The standardization approach is then applied to data from Sweden for 1973, and the results and their implications are discussed. In particular, it is seen that the total number of marriages in a two-sex population neither is nor should be bounded by the total numbers of marriages in the associated male and female one-sex nuptiality-mortality tables.     

A genetic perspective on mating systems and sex ratios of parasitoid wasps

Parasitoid sex ratios are influenced by mating systems, whether complete inbreeding, partial inbreeding, complete inbreeding avoidance, or production of all-male broods by unmated females. Population genetic theory demonstrates that inbreeding is possible in haplodiploids because the purging of deleterious and lethal mutations through haploid males reduces inbreeding depression. However, this purging does not act quickly for deleterious mutations or female-limited traits (e.g., fecundity, host searching, sex ratio). The relationship between sex ratio, inbreeding, and inbreeding depression has not been explored in depth in parasitoids. The gregarious egg parasitoid, Trichogramma pretiosum Riley, collected from Riverside, CA (USA) produced a female-biased sex ratio of 0.24 (proportion of males). Six generations of sibling mating in the laboratory uncovered considerable inbreeding depression (∼ 20%) in fecundity and sex ratio. A population genetic study (based upon allozymes) showed the population was inbred (F _it = 0.246), which corresponds to 56.6% sib-mating. However, average relatedness among females emerging from the same host egg was only 0.646, which is less than expected (0.75) if ovipositing females mate randomly. This lower relatedness could arise from inbreeding avoidance, multiple mating by females, or superparasitism. A review of the literature in general shows relatively low inbreeding depression in haplodiploid species, but indicates that inbreeding depression can be as high as that found in Drosophila. Finally, mating systems and inbreeding depression are thought to evolve in concert (in plants), but similar dynamic models of the joint evolution of sex ratio, mating systems, and inbreeding depression have not been developed for parasitoid wasps. Received: November 13, 1998 /Accepted: January 8, 1999     

Survival rate and sex ratio in habu,Trimeresurus flavoviridis (Viperidae), on the subtropical Okinawa Island, Japan

We examined the age structure and sex ratio of a viperid snake,Trimeresurus flavoviridis, based on samples collected by hand by local inhabitants, habu hunters and by baited traps in the middle and south of Okinawa Island, Japan. Small individuals had a low possibility of capture in all the collecting methods. The age structure was estimated through summing up the age frequency in each snout-vent length (SVL) class in samples with a similar SVL structure. From the age structures, annual survival rates of adult females and males were estimated to be 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. In most samples the sex ratio was biased towards males, especially in March and August and in large individuals. However, the female proportion increased in June.     

中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27岁之后的终身结婚期待率要高于1990年与2000年,29-35岁女性的预期单身寿命也较前30年低,较大年龄未婚女性结婚等待时间缩短。     

我国人口年龄结构与出口商品结构变动的灰色关联分析

在对人口年龄结构变动及劳动密集型产品出口比重变动进行分析的基础上,运用灰色关联分析实证研究了人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间的关系,得出以下结论：第一,人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间具有很高的相关关系,人口年龄结构变化势必影响我国未来出口商品结构。第二,我国未来的劳动年龄人口比重会处于下降的趋势,而老年人口比重将会上升。第三,我国劳动密集型产品的出口比重虽在不断下降,但仍处于较高水平,这势必影响我国在国际分工中的地位。第四,汇率与出口商品结构之间的相关度并不高,这需要引起政府在制定相关外汇政策时的注意。     

A reformulation of the two-sex problem

The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a “birth matrix” and a “mating rule.” Placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), I establish that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory.     

新疆生产建设兵团团场老年人口分布研究

基于2010年第六次人口普查数据,研究了新疆生产建设兵团（简称兵团）十三个师所属团场65岁及以上老年人口的年龄分布、性别分布和地域分布。兵团团场2010年老年人口总数为18.3万人,占团场总人口的10.4%,性别比为113.3,年龄中位数为72.1岁。兵团团场的人口年龄结构属于老年型,老年人口比重、老少比和老年抚养比的空间分布不均衡,北疆团场比南疆和东疆团场高。虽然单位土地面积上老年人口的分布不均衡,但是,单位耕地面积上老年人口的分布是均衡的。兵团团场老年人口密度为2.7人/平方公里（土地面积）和17.6人/平方公里（耕地面积）。人口老龄化对北疆团场经济社会发展和养老保障的压力将不断增大,对兵团承担屯垦戍边及保障新疆长治久安任务提出了新的挑战。     

Mass immigration and population dynamics in israel

Israel, in her 25 years of existence, received an unprecedented volume of immigration, which was the major source of her high population growth. This immigration was heavily concentrated in the first five years, 1948-1952; mass immigration of 711,000 supplemented an initial population of 630;000. Subsequently, since 1952, a very peculiar age-sex structure has developed: namely, instead of a pyramid, a wide rectangle for the younger age groups "topped" with a narrow pyramid for the older age groups. The peculiar age-sex dynamics is analyzed in relation to the volume of immigration with its uneven time distribution, the age selectivity of migrants and fertility-mortality patterns of migrants. It is concluded that the uneven time distribution of immigration and the higher fertility of migrants are jointly responsible for the development of Israel's peculiar age dynamics, and that the absence of either of these two factors alone would eliminate it. The peculiar dynamics has societal implications in the short and the long run, some of which are discussed.