Identification and Estimation of Stochastic Bargaining Models

Stochastic sequential bargaining models (Merlo and Wilson (1995, 1998)) have found wide applications in different fields including political economy and macroeconomics due to their flexibility in explaining delays in reaching an agreement. This paper presents new results in nonparametric identification and estimation of such models under different data scenarios.     

Discussion of Behavioral Principles in Journal of Organizational Behavior Management: An Update

This study replicated the methods of a previous review and assessed the frequency with which discussions of basic behavioral principles occurred in a sample of research and case studies published in Journal of Organizational Behavior Management. A total of 127 research and case studies published between 2006 and 2015 were reviewed; 67 included a discussion of behavioral principles. The percentage of research articles and case studies discussing behavioral principles was higher than that found in previous research. The most frequently described principle was reinforcement. Our findings also documented a higher percentage of laboratory studies discussed behavioral principles.     

基于财富效用的产权协商交易定价的计算求解和参数分析

本文以案例研究的方式,根据人们对财富价值的偏好,通过构造产权交易中所获利润的财富效用函数,建产了权交易定价的协商模型,导出协商交易价格的加权边际效用零和方程。通过案例的数值计算研究了交易人的偏好,交易底价,协商势力和信息量等参数的不对称性对均衡价格的影响。进一步分析了产权买方财富拥有量变动对均衡价格的影响。本文研究结论可为产权协商交易定价的机制设计提供理论依据。     

金融创新对货币需求影响的模型分析

本文将金融创新作为投资项目,假设了一个包含金融创新过程的初始成本。并将其导入Lucas现金预付款模型,然后利用这一拓展型模型分析了技术创新、利率变化、经济增长以及金融创新等因素对货币需求变化的影响。     

需求不确定条件下价值网竞争优势研究

本文通过建模分析,发现在需求不确定的条件下,价值网企业(拥有紧密的客户资源网和供应合作网)可识别需求不确定性,并可通过柔性生产和快速反应把握这种不确定性,借助于适度裕量的产能投资策略,有效规避缺货风险和存货积压风险,从而获取更高的收益。     

Aggregation and Market Demand: An Exterior Differential Calculus Viewpoint

We analyze under which conditions a given vector field can be disaggregated as a linear combination of gradients. This problem is typical of aggregation theory, as illustrated by the literature on the characterization of aggregate market demand and excess demand. We argue that exterior differential calculus provides very useful tools to address these problems. In particular, we show, using these techniques, that any analytic mapping in Rⁿ satisfying Walras Law can be locally decomposed as the sum of n individual, utility-maximizing market demand functions. In addition, we show that the result holds for arbitrary (price-dependent) income distributions, and that the decomposition can be chosen such that it varies continuously with the mapping. Finally, when income distribution can be freely chosen, then decomposition requires only n/2 agents.     

Toward an Effective Design of Behavioral Health Care Delivery: An Empirical Analysis of Care for Depression

A criticism of behavioral health care delivery is that it has largely missed the social determinants of behavioral health disorders and their diagnosis. Toward addressing this criticism, this study evaluates the delivery of behavioral health care as a part of primary care operations. Focusing on the treatment of depression, the study results show that: (i) primary care clinics operating in communities with superior social environment characteristics are associated with improved depression outcomes in the short term, and (ii) psychosocial resources (social and emotional support) and the built environment (man‐made resources and infrastructure to support human activity) of primary care clinics are associated with sustaining the improvement in depression outcome in the long term. Centering our attention on IT‐enabled, evidence‐based, and affordable primary care as mechanisms that can enable the integration of behavioral and medical care delivery, the results suggest that IT‐enabled and evidence‐based primary care are associated with improvements in depression outcomes. We also find that the effect of improving the affordability of behavioral health care delivery depends on the community's socioeconomic status. Primary care clinics in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities practicing cost‐containment are associated with improvements in depression outcomes, and, therefore, can contribute toward reducing disparities in behavioral health care delivery. Counter to our original expectations, we find that the effect of evidence‐based care on improvements on depression outcomes increases as the availability of medically trained behavioral health care specialists practicing in a community increases lending support to concerns that primary care clinics in resource‐rich communities obtain greater benefit from quality improvement interventions.     

Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners

Little is known about why individuals place either a high or a very low value on mitigating risks of disaster‐type events, like floods. This study uses panel data methods to explore the psychological factors affecting probability neglect of flood risk relevant to the zero end‐point of the probability weighting function in Prospect Theory, and willingness‐to‐pay for flood insurance. In particular, we focus on explanatory variables of anticipatory and anticipated emotions, as well as the threshold of concern. Moreover, results obtained under real and hypothetical incentives are compared in an experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on our findings, we suggest several policy recommendations to overcome individual decision processes, which may hinder flood protection efforts.     

Risk Analysis, Philosophy, and the Social and Behavioral Sciences: Reflections on the Scope of Risk Analysis Research

This paper reviews the contributions of philosophy and the social and behavioral sciences to risk analysis. It concludes that philosophical, social, and behavioral research can contribute to the resolution of complex risk issues in at least four areas: (i) comparative risk analysis; (ii) the use of risk-related scientific information in the decision-making process; (iii) risk perception; and (iv) institutional and organizational features of the risk-management system.     

Bargaining With Asymmetric Information: An Empirical Study of Plea Negotiations

This paper empirically investigates how sentences to be assigned at trial impact plea bargaining. The analysis is based on the model of bargaining with asymmetric information by Bebchuk, 1984. I provide conditions for the nonparametric identification of the model, propose a consistent nonparametric estimator, and implement it using data on criminal cases from North Carolina. Employing the estimated model, I evaluate how different sentencing reforms affect the outcome of criminal cases. My results indicate that lower mandatory minimum sentences could greatly reduce the total amount of incarceration time assigned by the courts, but may increase conviction rates. In contrast, the broader use of non‐incarceration sentences for less serious crimes reduces the number of incarceration convictions, but has a very small effect over the total assigned incarceration time. I also consider the effects of a ban on plea bargains. Depending on the case characteristics, over 20 percent of the defendants who currently receive incarceration sentences would be acquitted if plea bargains were forbidden.     

讨价还价实力:中德之间的实验研究

本文是针对以外部选择权所定义的讨价还价实力对谈判结果的影响所进行的实验研究。有关讨价还价实验的文献主要关注谈判实力对等的情况,而实力不对称的情况显然未被重视,尽管在现实世界的讨价还价情形中此类谈判实力不对称的情况比比皆是。仅有少数研究在其模型中考虑了这种实力上的差异。针对讨价还价实力对谈判结果影响的预测尚不明晰。按照Nash的讨价还价解,议价者的最终收益应该可以反映其实力差异。然而,Binmore等认为,只有当出价人的出价低于其保障收益时,外部选择权才会起作用。为了研究实力差别对讨价还价结果的影响,我们基于Selten的模型进行了双边讨价还价实验,实验的双方分别由若干参与人组成。我们的分析主要依据以下两组信息来源:1.讨价还价时所做的选择;2.各组内部讨论时的视频录像。我们比较了在德国波恩大学所做的较高程度的实力差异和较低程度的实力差异情况下的两组交易,未发现实力差异会在讨价还价结果中有所体现的迹象。然而,与德国相比,在中华人民共和国所进行的较高程度的实力差异情况下的交易,具有较高实力的参与人可以明显提高其收益水平。视频录像显示,两组议价者行为上的差异可归因于其不同的价值判断标准。德国的参与人不接受实验起初给定的既成实力差异而将平等分配作为其参考标准。而中国的参与人接受既成的实力差异进而在不平等分配的框架下进行其讨价还价行为。     

Supplier Behavior in Capacity Investment Competition: An Experimental Study

Many manufacturers ensure supply capacity by using more than one supplier and sharing their capacity investment costs via supplier development programs. Their suppliers face competitive pressure from peers despite the reduced capacity investment cost. Although standard game theory makes clear prediction that cost sharing increases the suppliers' capacity choice and supply chain profit, the complex decision environment of capacity competition makes it interesting to test whether the theory predictions are robust and, if not, whether systematic deviations occur. We present a laboratory experiment study. The experiment data show that supplier subjects invested in higher capacities than what our theoretical analysis predicted, resulting in profit loss for the supply chain. Our econometric analysis indicates that the subjects are bounded rational and their concern for relative standing may be the potential driver of capacity over‐investment. Based on the experimental findings, we study a modified cost‐sharing mechanism that adapts to the behavioral biases. Its performance is validated in a second experiment.     

Decision Making and Cognition in Multi‐Echelon Supply Chains: An Experimental Study

Supply chain performance often depends on the individual decisions of channel members. Even when individuals have access to relevant information, order variation tends to increase when moving up the supply chain, a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. While prior research has investigated several structural/environmental factors which can mitigate the bullwhip effect, the underlying behavioral factors contributing to it are an open question. Using a production and distribution decision‐making simulation representing a four‐stage serial supply chain, we find that the cognitive profile of decision makers contributes to the bullwhip effect. We found that the specific decision tendency to underweight the supply line is linked to an individual's level of cognitive reflection. Furthermore, performance differs for entire supply chains and for specific echelons, and holds under standard mitigation efforts. The findings have implications for supply chain design, education, and industry.     

促销模式下基于纳什谈判的线上旅行商与线下旅行社定价策略研究

本文针对O2O模式下线下旅行社（TO）与线上旅行商（OTA）在采取促销手段时的定价策略进行研究。首先根据促销成本的承担对象划分出由TO单独承担促销成本和TO与OTA共同承担促销成本这两种促销模式,然后通过纳什谈判确定销售佣金的定价策略,研究TO与OTA的谈判能力不同且双方承担的促销成本比例变化的情况下旅游产品和促销努力水平的定价策略。结果表明：当TO的谈判能力越大时,TO所需付出的销售佣金越小,促销的努力水平越高,销售价格越低,且TO的利润越大;而且,OTA的利润随着TO谈判能力的提高而下降。此外,通过对两种促销模式下TO的利润、OTA的利润以及整体利润的对比分析得出,应依据TO与OTA共同承担促销的这种促销模式下TO承担促销的比例来确定采用的促销模式。     

移动数据业务购买意愿的关键影响因素研究

基于已有的消费者行为学研究和技术接受方面的重要模型,本文着重研究了影响消费者购买意愿的主要因素,并在此基础上构建了移动数据业务消费者购买意愿影响因素的回归模型。本文分别选择三个城市。对中国移动三个品牌的用户进行随机抽样调查,并使用统计分析的方式对数据进行处理。分析结果发现：社会影响因素、价格和有用性是影响移动数据业务消费者购买意愿的关键因素。而安全性对国内现阶段主流业务的影响却并不显著。     

中国股市账面市值比效应成因分析:基于行为金融视角

本文将账面市值比分解为反映公司基本面的有形收益和反映投资者主观预期的无形收益,以1994-2008年间在沪深两市交易的A股公司为研究样本,实证考察投资者对账面市值比中不同元素的反应,结果显示,投资者对公司发展前景的主观预期过分乐观或者悲观引发市场过度反应,随着市场回归理性,股票收益发生反转导致账面市值比效应。     

Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm

Different people may use different strategies, or decision rules, when solving complex decision problems. We provide a new Bayesian procedure for drawing inferences about the nature and number of decision rules present in a population, and use it to analyze the behaviors of laboratory subjects confronted with a difficult dynamic stochastic decision problem. Subjects practiced before playing for money. Based on money round decisions, our procedure classifies subjects into three types, which we label “Near Rational,”“Fatalist,” and “Confused.” There is clear evidence of continuity in subjects' behaviors between the practice and money rounds: types who performed best in practice also tended to perform best when playing for money. However, the agreement between practice and money play is far from perfect. The divergences appear to be well explained by a combination of type switching (due to learning and/or increased effort in money play) and errors in our probabilistic type assignments.     

Behavioral Safety in the Food Services Industry: Challenges and Outcomes

During the course of a 6-year behavioral safety consult at a food and drink industry site, data were collected on the number of Occupational Safety Health Administration (OSHA) recordable incidents, number of lost and restricted days, and number of peer safety observations. Employees were trained to identify safe and unsafe behavior, conduct peer observations, and provide peer feedback. Data collected from observations were utilized to deliver graphic feedback. Managers were encouraged to review graphic feedback with employees weekly, provide prompts for observation, and praise employees for conducting observations. A committee composed of employees and managers met monthly to address safety concerns. Reductions in incidents were observed over the course of the behavioral safety intervention, but a reversal to baseline could not be implemented. A negative correlation was observed between number of peer observations and number of recordable incidents. Results suggest that when employees conduct peer observations more frequently, the number of recordable incidents decreases.     

中国外资需求的建模及协整分析

90年代以来,随着我国利用外资的大幅增长,由引资规模、引资结构不当等原因引起的负面效应逐渐加大作用,它严重影响着我国国内的经济建设。了解我国利用外资情况,对我国外资需求进行深入的研究,建立合理的外资需求模型,对我国引进外资的规模进行计划决策,充分发挥外资的正面效应是非常重要的。     

我国彩票市场的价格体系与供需分析

为分析彩票的供需函数,建立了彩票市场的价格体系,该体系包括彩票的销售价格、预期价值和有效价格.基于此,以有效价格作为价格变量,研究了彩票的供给函数与需求函数.根据统计学的期望值原理,通过计算彩票的预期价值得到供给函数,彩票的供给曲线呈现先降后升的特点.通过回归分析估计彩票的需求函数,它是一个减函数.最后,选取我国双色球乐透型彩票进行了实证研究,估计出双色球彩票的供需函数,进行了彩票市场的均衡分析和弹性分析,并基于分析结果给出了我国发展彩票业的对策.