Disability and Labour Supply during Economic Transition: Evidence from Bulgaria

Abstract. This paper focuses on the interrelationship between disability and labour force participation for the adult population in Bulgaria. We estimate simultaneous equation models with discrete endogenous variables to account for the different forms of interdependence between health and labour supply. Using the Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys conducted in 1995, 1997 and 2001, our econometric results indicate that disability exerts a negative effect on labour participation, but labour supply has little effect on disability. Evidence from panel data also suggests that disability reduces labour force participation.     

Marital Instability,Reproductive Behaviour and Women's Labour Force Participation Decisions

ABSTRACT The subject of this paper is the relationship between female labour force participation, fertility decisions and marital instability and pursues a two-fold objective: to explain the nature of the interdependences between participation and procreation decisions; and to look for, through empirical evidence, an explanation for women's labour force participation and fertility dynamics over the last 20 years. The empirical evidence, based on a panel of 19 countries over the period 1965–1989, shows that variables representing marital instability have an important role in woman's labour supply and fertility dynamics during this period.     

Supply and Price of Childcare and Female Labour Force Participation in the Netherlands

Abstract. The childcare market has been emerging in the Netherlands since the first Child Care Stimulation Act in 1990. The Dutch government has chosen to increase availability and share the costs of childcare between government, employers and parents. We estimate the determinants of Dutch women's decisions to participate in the labour market and the use of paid childcare in 1995. Furthermore, we estimate the effect of the price of childcare on female labour supply. We discuss whether the route that is taken by the Dutch government regarding childcare leads to smaller dead weight losses than in Sweden.     

The Effect of Having More Children on Women's Labour Force Participation in Korea: An Analysis Using Instrument Variables

The objective of this study was to examine the causal relations between having more children and women's labour force participation using Korean data. Given the strong preference for sons in Korea, variables regarding the number of daughters were used as instrument variables for having more children. The results using 1980s data showed that having a third child had a significantly positive impact on women's labour force participation in the ordinary least squares analysis, whereas the coefficient value was significantly negative in the two‐stage least squares analysis. Such results imply that, unlike in the western societies such as the USA and the UK, the ordinary least squares analysis results might underestimate the negative correlations between having more children and women's labour force participation in a developing country such as Korea.     

Unemployment and the Composition of Labour Slack: An International Comparison

The present statistical apparatus allows us to construct a single indicator of the degree of non-utilisation of labour resources that mitigates the shortcomings of the traditional unemployment rate. This paper defines a method to measure aggregate labour slack, and applies it to post-1973 data for four countries: Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden and the U.S.A. The estimates take into account non-utilised labour resources due to unemployment, to changes in the number of hours actually worked and to changes in registered labour force participation. Since changes in and the manipulation of working time schedules on the one hand, and of labour supply on the other, have become more frequent over the last few decades, it is highly relevant to investigate international and intertemporal differences in the non-utilisation of labour resources by means of a ratio that accounts for these changes. Unemployment is ill-suited for this purpose, and therefore a labour slack estimate is constructed, which takes working time developments and changes in labour force participation into consideration. The estimate is cyclically more sensitive and more internationally comparable than the traditional unemployment rate.     

Regional Labour Market Adjustment: Are Positive and Negative Shocks Different?

This paper analyses regional labour market adjustment in the Finnish provinces during 1971–96. It investigates the interrelations of employment, unemployment and labour force participation to examine how a change in labour demand is adjusted to. The study questions the usual assumption that positive and negative shocks evoke similar adjustment processes. Instead, we test for the possibility that the effects of positive and negative shocks are asymmetric. The analysis reveals that there is little asymmetry in the adjustment to region‐specific labour demand shocks, but adjustment to total (region‐specific plus common component) shocks displays more asymmetry. The region‐specific component of a labour demand shock has short‐lived effects on unemployment and participation, and its effect on employment is very small but permanent [persistent?]. Initially, most of the fall in employment is absorbed by the unemployment and participation rate, but after a few years migration plays a larger role in the adjustment process.     

Do Women Cause Unemployment? Evidence from Eight OECD Countries

ABSTRACT: In this paper the authors present the results of preliminary estimates on the effects of changes in the composition of labour forces throughout eight OECD countries during the period 1966-1986. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, the effect of changes in the distribution of the labour force on group unemployment is computed. Second, the impact of this effect is combined with the direct effect of changes in the distribution of participation on total unemployment rates, to calculate a hypothetical unemployment rate which corresponds to what would have occured had there been no compositional changes. The paper challenges the thesis which sustains that alterations in the age-sex composition of the labour force have exerted an upward pressure on the aggregate unemployment rate.     

Labour Market Policy and Employment Growth in Sweden

ABSTRACT: In this paper, the author outlines the Swedish employment situation and traces the history of the labour market policy it generated, from its earliest development at the turn of the century, through to the Rehn-Meidner model, and then examines the various reactions and criticisms against it. It goes on to look at the trends and developments of the labour market in the‘80s, and concludes by making a speculative analysis on if and how the labour market policy has had an effect on the participation of various sectors of the population in the labour force, and if it has influenced unemployment in the Swedish labour market.     

Unemployment Components in the G7 Countries

The increase in unemployment rates in the G7 countries is broken down into both labour supply and labour demand components. In no case is there a dominant source. Real GDP generally ranks first but does not account for more than a third of the overall changes. This finding shows that unemployment cannot be equated to negative employment since the labour force is generally increasing and volatile, mostly because of rising participation rates. Another reason why unemployment is not a reliable indicator of macroeconomic performance is that labour hoarding reduces employment response to output changes; this is especially true for Japan and Europe.     

Effect of a Family Policy Reform on Immigrants' Labour Supply and Earnings

An important feature of Scandinavian welfare states is the transfer of resources to families with children. Long parental leave and provision of high‐quality subsidized day care are important policies in this regard. This paper evaluates the impact of a recent Norwegian family policy reform on the labour supply of native and immigrant women in Norway. The reform provides cash benefits to families with 1–3‐year‐old children who do not utilize state‐subsidized day care centres. We find that the effect of the reform on labour force participation of women is fairly modest. However, given participation, earnings of natives and immigrants fell after the cash‐benefit reform. Specifically, earnings of highly educated non‐Western immigrants fell by more than those of natives.     

Rising Earnings Inequality and Returns to Skills in the United Kingdom Labour Market*

Abstract. Since the later 1970s, earnings inequality in the United Kingdom has been rising steadily. It is argued that this rise reflects increasing returns to skills, as proxied by factors like education and occupation, while the strengthening labour market position of relatively skilled workers was also reflected in improving relative unemployment and labour force participation rates. These trends are best explained by a rise in the relative demand for skilled labour, implying that the most efficient way of restraining earnings inequality growth is through vigorous educational policies.     

Are Married Women in Turkey More Likely to Become Added or Discouraged Workers?

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to examine the labour market outcomes of married couples to find out which of the added and discouraged worker effects is dominant in urban Turkish families. Using household labour force survey and province‐level data from 1988 and 1994, we look for evidence regarding the dependency of the labour force participation decisions of wives and the employment status of their husbands. On yearly and pooled samples of married couples in their prime ages, bivariate probit estimates indicate that the two decisions are negatively correlated. However, the correlation is found to be statistically significant only in the economic crisis year of 1994. We interpret this finding to mean that the added worker effect dominates the discouraged worker effect.     

Labour Participation of Higher Education Students

The aim of this article is to shed light on the determinants of the decision to participate in the labour force while studying, and of the intensity of this participation as measured by the wages earned by students. We show that students react to their future expected economic benefits associated with their chosen course of study. In this sense, our results confirm Lévy‐Garboua’s (Revue française de Sociologie XVII: 53–80, 1976) thesis of working as an adjustment variable for the variations in the expected rate of return of discipline. Our results indicate that the decision to work while studying and its intensity depend on students’ socioeconomic status and material needs, as well as external financial resources. Altogether, our results suggest that the equity and internal efficiency implications of such a social bias in the labour force participation behaviour might not be too important, but that some public interventions might nevertheless improve the overall external efficiency by allowing students to spend more time on more valorizing activities rather than unskilled and low‐paid jobs.     

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

Abstract. This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P‐VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P‐VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.     

Long‐term Effects of Cash for Childcare on Mothers' Labour Supply

Abstract. In 1998–99 a cash benefit for 1‐ to 2‐year‐olds who do not use subsidized childcare on full‐time basis was introduced in Norway. A large‐scale appraisal shortly after introduction concluded that the effects on mothers' labour supply were surprisingly small. The more long‐term effects reported in this paper suggest that this conclusion may need modification. Almost 4 years after the reform the employment probability had declined significantly, and employed mothers were much more likely to be on leave. All in all the reduction in labour supply is estimated to be 3¾ hours per week or almost 20 per cent.     

New Mothers’ Labour Force Participation in Italy: The Role of Job Characteristics

Abstract. In this paper we use newly available individual‐level data from the Longitudinal Survey of Italian Households to investigate the factors associated with female labour force participation after the birth of the first child. We focus on the role of pre‐marital job characteristics and find that new mothers who worked without a contract are less likely to participate, while those who worked in the public sector or in a large private firm have a higher probability of being in the labour force after childbearing. We suggest that these effects could be at least partly attributed to differences in the level of job protection and employment stability enjoyed by workers. This implies that in Italy women with highly protected and stable jobs might find it easier to combine career and family, whereas those who are less sheltered by the legislation might be more likely to be inactive after becoming mothers.     

Informal Caregiving and Women's Work Choices: Lessons from the Netherlands

This paper focuses on the effects of Dutch long‐term care and labour market policies on women's labour market participation and informal caregiving decisions. Labour market participation and informal caregiving are estimated jointly through a multivariate dynamic binary probit on European Community Household Panel data. Under Dutch policy, informal care decisions appear to be independent of household non‐labour income and no significant impediment seems to hinder the contemporaneous practice of work activities and care. However, past informal care provision still slightly reduces the probability of currently working and vice versa, leaving room for policy improvements to enhance labour market participation.     

Time Out for Childcare: Signalling and Earnings Rebound Effects for Men and Women

ABSTRACT: The wage cost of time out of the labor force for childcare is important in order to understand the functioning of labor markets and for public policy. This paper reviews the literature and identifies several limitations. Using employment records of a large Swedish company over the period 1983-88, we demonstrate an alternative approach for estimating earnings effects and find a year out costs 1.7 percent of earnings for a woman and 5.2 percent for a man. This large effect for men raises questions of signalling costs. For both men and women, earnings‘'rebound'’for time out in the more distant past.     

Long-Term Effects of a Plant Closure: a Multistate Duration Analysis of Event History Data in a Ten-Year Follow-Up Study

This paper discusses the possible effects on future prospects in the labour market of those who suffer a plant closure. A multistate duration model is estimated on monthly event data comprising 172 individuals over ten years, with the occurrence of the plant closure among the regressors. An individual can escape to one of several destinations when exiting one of three origin states (unemployed, sick leave, outside the labour force). Our prime concern has been transitions leading to a new job or to destination states outside the labour force (disability pension and at home, without any social security benefit). We find indications of severe negative long-term effects on employment from a plant closure: long durations in unemployment when searching for new jobs, higher incidence of leaving the labour force, longer periods of sick leave and higher incidence of disability pension. Thus, an adverse shock reducing employment may have negative long-term effects on the labour market through long spells of unemployment and a shrinking labour force. Our findings thus support the hypothesis of hysteresis dynamics in the labour market.     

The Threat Effect of Mandatory Programmes in Finland

This study focuses on the threat effect of the activation reform of the Finnish labour market support system in 2006. Mandatory programme participation may provide the incentive for some individuals to look for work in order to avoid the training programmes. The study examines whether the reform encouraged individuals in the target group to look for employment. According to the results, mandatory programme participation has no effect on the probability of finding a job or of leaving labour market support for some other reason. Conversely, long‐term recipients' participation in the labour market programmes has increased, owing to the activation reform.